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Markets and Outlooks

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Fixed income: Relative value opportunities amid growth slowdown
In the face of this year's fixed income market turmoil, Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Rob Burn sees attractive opportunities for investors with longer-term time horizons.
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Quick Take
2022-10-31
Will the Fed send the US economy into a recession?
Multi-Asset Strategist Adam Berger and US Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan consider the broad impact of Fed rate hikes and how asset allocators should respond.
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Article
2023-07-31
Fintech industry outlook in a recession
We explore the current environment for the fintech industry and highlight a few factors that show why the outlook for payments and other related subindustries may be less challenging than many may anticipate.
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Quick take
2023-07-31
Fed rate hikes: A tailwind for bonds?
Global Investment Strategist Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson believes higher-quality, longer-duration bonds may prove resilient even if the Fed keeps raising short-term rates into 2023.
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Quick Take
2022-10-31
July Fed meeting: Rising inflation vs falling growth
After another rate hike, the Fed must balance moderating growth with mounting inflation. Caroline Casavant opines on how the central bank might navigate this dilemma.
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Quick Take
2022-10-31
What next for the euro area after the ECB’s historic hike?
Eoin O'Callaghan and Marco Giordano explore the ECB’s likely next steps and the potential future path of inflation and growth in the euro area.
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Article
2023-07-05
US housing: Are the headwinds stronger than the tailwinds?
In the second of a two-part series, Fixed Income Credit Analyst Daniel Kim looks at the downside risks facing the US housing market and concludes that positive structural trends around supply, affordability, and home prices should continue to support the sector.
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Quick Take
2022-10-31
Mid-2022 Investment Outlook
As you look ahead to the second half of 2022, we invite you to explore unique perspectives from our marketplace of ideas — more than 900 investors strong.
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Collection
2022-12-31
Financial Market Review: Second quarter 2022
A quarterly update on equity, fixed income, currency, and commodity markets.
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Article
2023-01-15
Monthly Market Snapshot: June 2022
A monthly update on equity, fixed income, currency, and commodity markets.
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Article
2022-09-15
Insurers: Strengthen your core in the second half
Insurance Multi-Asset Strategist Tim Antonelli shares his latest multi-asset insights for global insurers, including his view that core fixed income holdings — US interest rates and investment-grade corporate bonds — should stack up well against most risk assets in the second half of 2022.
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Article
2022-12-31
Stock-based compensation and the tech sector
We explore how stock-based compensation may be creating underappreciated risks for investors, companies, and boards as we potentially enter a more challenging environment for tech stocks.
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Article
2023-07-31
Can credit investors turn the resumption of volatility and cycles to their advantage?
Why the new volatile market regime may offer significantly more opportunities for longer-term global credit strategies.
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Article
2023-07-31
US inflation: Supply chains to the rescue?
Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan shares her inflation outlook, including the prospects for supply-chain normalization, and her views on the market implications.
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Article
2023-07-31
Mid-2022 Inflation Outlook
We explore the current inflation environment's significant impacts on asset markets, anticipated relief in supply-chain pressures, and opportunities in commodities and enduring assets.
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Article
2023-07-31
Don’t be surprised if CLO equity surprises to the upside
Members of our fixed income team, including Portfolio Manager Alyssa Irving, believe CLO equity could be poised to outperform many other risk assets over the next few years.
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Quick Take
2022-10-31
Mid-2022 Alternative Investments Outlook
As allocators cope with economic uncertainty and market volatility, Multi-Asset Strategist Cara Lafond explains how alternative investments could potentially play a role in improving portfolio resilience and returns.
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Article
2023-08-31
Credit investing against a slower-growth, higher-inflation backdrop
The significant flattening of the US Treasury yield curve in recent months has some prognosticators calling for an impending US recession. Not so fast, says Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Rob Burn.
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Quick Take
2022-07-31
Mid-2022 Asset Allocation & Investment Strategy Outlook
We explore the market implications of central bank policies, rising prices, and slowing growth and offer incremental steps to improving a portfolio’s return potential.
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Article
2023-07-31
From autopilot to active pilot: How investors can navigate the future
President Steve Klar explains why a broader set of tools may be required to maneuver through higher volatility, changes in market structure, and the explosion in investment data.
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Quick Take
2023-06-30
Mid-2022 Global Economic Outlook
We believe heightened geopolitical uncertainty, and the new macro environment of deglobalization, higher inflation, greater global cyclicality and volatility will disrupt and drive markets.
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Article
2023-07-31
Mid-2022 Asset Class Outlook
We offer perspectives on growth and value equities and explore ideas for shoring up your fixed income flank amid the evolving economic and market environment.
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Article
2023-07-31
US housing: There’s no place like home
While US housing activity is slowing, positive fundamentals and favorable supply/demand dynamics may continue to support the sector.
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Quick Take
2022-10-31
Credit and equity risk back on speaking terms, but will it last?
Following their uncharacteristic rift and recent reconciliation, Director of Wellington’s Global Derivatives Group Gordy Lawrence considers whether equity volatility and credits spreads are likely to remain in harmony.
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Quick Take
2022-10-31
Monthly Market Snapshot: May 2022
A monthly update on equity, fixed income, currency, and commodity markets.
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Article
2022-08-15
Intermediate credit: A compelling LDI opportunity?
While it has been a painful start to the year for credit investors, Portfolio Manager Connor Fitzgerald sees a structural case for intermediate credit and a potential near-term window of opportunity.
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Article
2023-06-30
Sustainable fixed income investing comes of age
ESG integration and sustainable investing have gained considerable traction in global fixed income markets. Investment Directors Anand Dharan and Meredith Joly and Fixed Income Trader Keenan Choy discuss this ongoing trend and some of its key implications for asset allocators.
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Article
2023-06-30
A transition year for agency MBS?
Following a challenging period for agency MBS, members of our securitized team now see attractive opportunities in the space and believe actively managed strategies may be the best way for many investors to capitalize.
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Quick Take
2022-07-31
Sticky inflation, weaker growth: A volatile mix
As central bank policy, rising prices, and slowing growth roil the markets, Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson and Supriya Menon explore the implications for equities, bonds, and commodities.
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Article
2022-10-31
A guide to ESG materiality assessments
We continue our "ESG insights for private companies" series by exploring ESG materiality assessments, including why they are important and how to conduct one for your private company.
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Article
2023-05-31
Three overlooked opportunities in today’s markets
Portfolio Manager Brian Garvey highlights three large macro dislocations in today's environment that he believes the capital markets have yet to price in.
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Quick Take
2022-09-30
Monthly Market Snapshot: April 2022
A monthly update on equity, fixed income, currency, and commodity markets.
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Article
2022-07-15
Timely musings on Fed policy and inflation
With rising inflation and interest rates dominating the financial headlines in recent weeks, I have been fielding a flurry of colleague and client questions about the likely future trajectory of US monetary policy. While I don’t claim to have all the answers, especially with so many “known unknowns” as of this writing, here are my latest thoughts.
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Quick Take
2022-08-30
How the public market correction is affecting the late-stage private equity market
The times they are a-changin’. The late-stage private equity market is digesting a public growth multiple collapse that took us from boom to bust in four months. But while valuations may be coming down in the private market as a result, the opportunity-creating trends of technology disrupting all parts of the economy and companies staying private longer remain in place.
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Quick Take
2022-09-30
US inflation risk, angry bondholders, and silver linings
Here are quick thoughts on some common questions I’ve been asked recently about Fed policy, yields, the US dollar, and financial markets.
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Quick Take
2022-08-31
Is it too soon to call a “top” in US interest rates?
Are we nearing the top of the 10-year treasury rate?
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Quick Take
2023-05-31
Empirical duration: reason for optimism on risk assets?
While rising rates often produce negative bond returns, combining the concept of empirical duration with a positive outlook on the credit cycle may bode well for some fixed income sectors' return prospects going forward. Investment Analyst Will Prenits and Investment Director Tobias Ripka explain.
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Quick Take
2022-07-31
2021 Sustainability Report
Sustainability is a strategic priority for our firm and an integral part of our commitment to our clients. By focusing on our clients’ objectives and pairing intellectual curiosity with discipline, we believe we can help our clients meet their long-term goals in a changing world. We appreciate the opportunity to share our approach to advancing sustainable practices across our investment, client, and infrastructure platforms.
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Article
2023-06-14
Will Japanese buyers look beyond USD fixed income? They may have to
With the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) interest-rate-hiking cycle now underway, it’s an important time to keep a close eye on non-US buyers of US dollar (USD) fixed income securities.
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Quick Take
2022-07-31
Six reasons India may be on the cusp of a major upcycle
Numerous positive structural and cyclical factors are pointing towards a major economic upcycle in India over the next five to six years, in our view, creating a range of potential investment opportunities. We believe India’s market is supported by an evolving investment universe, powerful demographic trends, increasing urbanisation and rising wealth, export growth, geopolitical tailwinds and a supportive policy regime. These factors are coalescing at a time when the corporate deleveraging cycle of the last few years is coming to an end and a new upcycle in profitability could be beginning.
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Quick Take
2022-12-30
How a diversified approach to climate return opportunities can support decarbonisation goals
Joy Perry and Ken Baumgartner explore how a diversified approach to climate return opportunities can support decarbonisation goals.
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Article
2022-09-30
Financial Market Review: First quarter 2022
A quarterly review of results in the global equity, fixed income, currency, and commodity markets.
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Article
2022-10-15
Helping European investors navigate inflation fears
The recent shift to a higher inflation regime, with resulting expectations of tighter monetary policy and rising interest rates, presents a material challenge for European fixed income investors. Against this backdrop, Investment Analyst Will Prentis and Investment Director Tobias Ripka believe investment flexibility is key.
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Quick Take
2022-07-31
Five reasons to take a closer look at Brazil
I have published my views on Brazil more than once over the past year (most recently in my November 2021 blog post), but the environment there has changed markedly through the first few months of this year, with COVID-related risks seemingly on the wane and the Russia/Ukraine conflict having driven up commodity prices — so I thought now would be an opportune time to share a fresh perspective on South America’s most populous country.
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Quick Take
2022-07-31
Monthly Market Snapshot: March 2022
A monthly update on equity, fixed income, currency, and commodity markets.
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Article
2022-06-15
Global convertibles: Poised to benefit from five structural tailwinds
Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Michael Barry and Investment Specialist Raina Dunkelberger believe global convertible bonds are likely to outperform other fixed income sectors over an investment time horizon of approximately two to three years. Learn why.
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Quick take
2022-07-31
The full climate-investing opportunity
From devastating floods in Australia — tragically, in many of the same areas hit by fires in recent years — to wildfires in Europe and the US, widespread disasters bring into stark reality the consequences today of a changing climate. The human toll of these events has become an unfortunate yet familiar part of the news cycle, but the second-order impacts of climate change on financial markets are sometimes less well understood. Many traditional approaches to climate investing have rightly focused on these risks, but we believe both their approach and their scope are often incomplete and lacking nuance, thereby creating inefficiencies in the climate-investing landscape.
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Quick take
2022-10-31
Higher inflation, rising rates: Front and center for insurers
With macro and market complications piling up through the first few months of 2022, Insurance Multi-Asset Strategist Tim Antonelli provides his investment implications for global insurers.
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Article
2022-10-15
Russia/Ukraine: Transformational, not transitory
Four Wellington thought leaders share their distinct individual perspectives on the short- and longer-term implications of the tragic watershed conflict between Russia and Ukraine: Geopolitical Strategist Thomas Mucha on the geopolitical backdrop; Macro Strategist John Butler on what it means for Europe; Macro Strategist Santiago Millán on the role of China; and Portfolio Manager David Chang on the commodities markets.
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Article
2022-11-30
Addressing the shared financial challenge of climate change
In February, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a body of the United Nations, released its Sixth Assessment Report, “Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability.” While the full report is 3,675 page long, the Technical Summary is just 96 pages and well worth the read. In the Summary alone, climate adaptation is referenced 442 times, versus 60 for climate mitigation.
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Quick Take
2022-07-30
When will US federal deficits matter?
Now that the Federal Reserve has moved into tightening mode, it’s worth asking when the US deficits and overall debt could become a source of worry. As long as interest rates stay reasonably low without driving persistently high inflation, I believe deficits and the debt won’t matter too much to the economy or markets. The debt won’t be painful to finance and can continue to grow — within reason. In fact, if economic growth is higher than the interest rate on government borrowing, it’s possible for debt to GDP to shrink even amid sizeable deficits.
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Quick Take
2022-07-31
Bank loans: Resiliency amid volatility
In the face of ongoing geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty, including the prospect of steadily rising interest rates, our floating-rate bank loan team maintains a bullish outlook for the sector. Emboldened by a strong US economy and mounting inflationary pressures, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) enacted its first 25 basis-point (bp) increase in interest rates since 2018. Additionally, Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s recent rhetoric has become more hawkish, including suggesting the possibility of a 50 bp rate hike in the coming months. The market is now pricing in the fed funds rate to rise to around 2.5% by the end of 2022 (from its current target of 25-50 bps).
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Quick Take
2022-08-01
Global credit: Where do we go from here?
Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Mahmoud El-Shaer explores why 2022 may be a momentous year for global credit and sets out a framework to think through potential investment implications. 2022 promises to be another challenging year for central banks as they attempt to normalise policies in the face of surging inflation, while navigating the growing fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Since 2009, there has essentially been one trade in capital markets: riding a huge wave of central bank liquidity in support of the financial system and the economy, with the G4 central banks alone pumping approximately US$20 trillion into the system via quantitative easing (QE).
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Quick Take
2022-07-31
Crypto beyond the hype: Insights for institutional investors
We highlight a few practical insights on cryptocurrencies for institutional investors evaluating the asset class, including our views on custody, regulation, and more.
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Quick Take
2022-08-31
Four potentially powerful tailwinds for the securitized sector
In his latest Top of Mind session, Multi-Asset Strategist Adam Berger addressed a wide range of what-if scenarios on the minds of our clients. See what he has to say on Russia, China, cryptocurrencies, the IPO market, and many other topics in this brief article.
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Quick Take
2022-06-30
China is not Russia: Reasons to stay invested
Equity Portfolio Manager Greg Mattiko challenges investors to look at actions rather than conjecture when considering reduced exposure to China.
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Article
2023-03-31
What does the Ukraine invasion mean for China?
Macro Strategist Santiago Millán argues that the scale and breadth of the sanctions on Russia have increased the uncertainty of investing in China across multiple dimensions. He explores the continued decoupling of China and the West.
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Article
2023-03-31
Can the Fed engineer a soft landing?
As widely expected, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) yesterday raised its target federal funds rate...
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Article
War and markets: What's the connection?
Amid the geopolitical turmoil and tragic humanitarian fallout of the Russia/Ukraine crisis, many investors are naturally also concerned about the negative effects the escalating conflict could have on their portfolios. With that in mind, I thought I’d provide a quick snapshot of the impacts that past wars have tended to have on asset prices.
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Article
2023-03-31
War in Ukraine: Five observations on recent developments
Macro Strategist Gillian Edgeworth assesses recent developments in the escalating Russia/Ukraine conflict and highlights five key implications.
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Article
2023-03-31
How will war in Ukraine shift the ESG landscape?
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has turned the spotlight on ESG in new ways. Our ESG Research Team highlights how the crisis may shape their analysis.
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Article
2023-03-31
River from above
Commodities investing amid the Russia/Ukraine conflict
We explore how the tragic conflict between Russia and Ukraine impacts commodities markets broadly and a few key commodities in particular.
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Article
2023-03-31
Ten more “what if” scenarios for 2022
In his latest Top of Mind session, Multi-Asset Strategist Adam Berger addressed a wide range of what-if scenarios on the minds of our clients. See what he has to say on Russia, China, cryptocurrencies, the IPO market, and many other topics in this brief article.
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Article
2023-02-28
DC plans: Three timely themes that probably aren’t going away anytime soon
Our DC plan specialists highlight three big-picture investment themes that are not only top of mind for many plan participants in today’s environment, but are also likely to have staying power in the months ahead.
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Article
2023-03-31
Why I’m getting more bullish on biotech
The biotechnology sector, especially SMID-cap biotech equities, suffered a dramatic drawdown in 2021. Investor sentiment toward the sector remains poor, but my outlook has become increasingly bullish as multiple headwinds facing biotech over the past year or so begin to abate and turn into potential tailwinds for 2022 and beyond. Encouragingly, the level of innovation across the industry has never been higher, in my view. I believe many biotech stocks may be nearing a bottom, even though the exact timing of (and catalyst for) a rebound remains unclear as of this writing.
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Quick Take
2022-06-30
How will Russia’s invasion of Ukraine transform the euro area? Four potential paths
As the tragedy in Ukraine unfolds, Macro Strategist John Butler assesses possible implications of the conflict for Europe and the euro area. He outlines four potential paths.
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Article
2023-03-31
Russia/Ukraine conflict: Five things to watch closely
Amid the ongoing turmoil of the Russia/Ukraine crisis, Global Investment Strategist Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson highlights five key areas she thinks investors should keep a watchful eye on in the weeks ahead.
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Article
2023-03-31
China in 2022: Embracing the volatility
China’s new antitrust, data privacy and cybersecurity regulations, combined with its education and real estate industry reforms, the continued impact of COVID-19 and rising geopolitical tensions, drove a tumultuous investment environment last year. The country’s numerous headline-grabbing changes spurred global concern given the philosophical shift towards “Common Prosperity” and the sheer scale and speed of policymaking.
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Quick take
2022-08-31
An inside look at today’s municipal market
After a year in which municipal bonds posted respectable returns (Figure 1), many clients have been seeking forward-looking guidance on the market as a whole and (increasingly) on particular sectors of it. Here are my latest thoughts as of this writing on the outlook for the rest of 2022.
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Quick Take
2022-05-31
How might equity sectors fare when Fed tightening begins?
We look back at how US equities have performed in the months following the beginning of a tightening cycle, as well as how bond yields have tended to behave.
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Quick take
2022-05-31
Russia/Ukraine and the commodity challenge
With commodity inventories at multi-decade lows, is rising cross-asset class volatility all but inevitable? Leveraging insights from Wellington colleagues, Thematic Strategist Trevor Noren argues that the Russia/Ukraine crisis demonstrates why the answer is likely yes.
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Article
2023-03-31
Geopolitical observations on Ukraine
Geopolitical Strategist Thomas Mucha integrates his observations with those of his senior-level military, intelligence and diplomatic contacts to offer insights on the potential consequences of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
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Article
2023-03-31
Preserving funded-ratio stability in volatile markets
Faced with extreme market volatility in the early months of 2022, what can corporate DB plan sponsors do to potentially provide stability in their portfolios while still pursuing longer-term funding aspirations? Multi-Asset Strategist Amy Trainor offers thoughts on rerisking, hedge ratios, and liability-hedging and return-seeking allocations.
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Article
2023-03-31
2022 Asia Investment Forum: Investment strategy in a shifting world
Three megatrends will transform Asia’s investment landscape over the coming year, concur Wellington’s strategist panel.
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Replay
2023-03-31
For markets, it’s complicated
As markets grapple with the war in Ukraine, inflation worries, and a host of other issues, Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson and Daniel Cook offer their thoughts on the investment implications for equities, commodities, and fixed income.
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Article
2022-10-31
EM local debt: Forgotten but not forsaken
The emerging markets (EM) local debt sector (as measured by the JP Morgan Government Bond Index – Emerging Markets Global Diversified) just posted its worst calendar-year performance since 2013, returning -8.75% against the headwind of higher EM local interest rates. The underlying culprit? EM inflation surprised to the upside in 2021, forcing a number of EM central banks to raise their policy interest rates in an effort to curb the impact.
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Quick Take
2022-09-30
Russian invasion of Ukraine: Looking through the newsflow
Looking beyond the upsetting newsflow, what does the unfolding Ukrainian tragedy mean for investors? Director of Investment Strategy Natasha Brook-Walters shares three different Wellington perspectives.
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Article
2023-02-28
Navigating a new tomorrow
In this video, Wellington investment professionals and prominent guests articulate the structural risks and opportunities that we believe will shape tomorrow’s investment strategies, ranging from medical innovation spurred by the global pandemic to technological breakthroughs, and ideas aimed at curbing or mitigating climate risk.
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Replay
2023-01-31
Commodities in 2022: Opportunities amid inflation
Inflation is quickly becoming top of mind for many as everything from ice cream to cars gets more expensive. Investors are beginning to recognize that we’re experiencing the highest inflation levels in 40 years. In our view, we may be entering a market that could be quite favorable for inflation-hedging assets broadly and commodities, in particular. Critically, this environment is coming on the heels of a decade or more of institutions deallocating from inflation-sensitive areas.
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Quick Take
2022-08-31
Amid heightened regulation and geopolitical tension, is China still investable?
Recent regulatory announcements have sent shivers through a wide swath of China’s economy, including the technology, finance, gaming, and property sectors, and tensions between China and the US continue to simmer. But while I understand the market’s reaction to these risks, I take a long-term perspective on China’s investability.
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Quick Take
2022-05-31
Credit and equity performance around Fed hiking cycles
One of the discussion topics du jour is how the credit and equity markets might react to the US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest-rate hikes that are widely anticipated in the coming months. As is often the case with me, I find it helpful here to refer to past hiking regimes and market performances as a sort of guidepost. The proof’s in the pudding To wit, I examined the historical returns of both US credit (for this purpose, proxied by corporate high-yield bonds) and US equities (represented by the S&P 500 Index) during the six months before the first rate increase of a Fed hiking cycle through the 12 months after said increase.
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Quick Take
2022-05-31
Regime change likely to challenge modern market structures
Recently, I wrote about the rotation from growth to value and why some of my colleagues and I expect volatility, more than a smooth transition of leadership, to define markets. The thesis is rooted in the fact that seismic macro questions loom over markets and are likely to trigger violent fluctuations in investor conviction. Earlier this month, Macro Strategist John Butler dissected one of these questions: Will the negative correlation between stocks and bonds turn positive?
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Quick take
2022-05-31
China in 2022 - Uncorrelated but far from broken
Macro Strategist Santiago Millan highlights a trend of falling correlations between China’s economy and asset prices versus their global counterparts.
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Quick Take
2022-08-31
Macro survey: Nervous about China
Respondents to our latest internal survey think the markets may be complacent about risks in China and emerging markets more broadly. Every quarter for the past six years, the Wisdom of Wellington team has surveyed around 100 of our Wellington colleagues across different investment disciplines and locations to get their views on what we see as the key macro questions of the day. The results can pinpoint where the firm’s views differ from the consensus and can also reveal significant shifts in our collective thinking.
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Quick Take
2023-02-28
Can Ukraine’s economy withstand another conflict with Russia?
Macro Strategist Gillian Edgeworth assesses Ukraine’s outlook in the face of renewed conflict with Russia and finds that under most scenarios Ukraine's macro-economic prospects may be less negative than perhaps is assumed.
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Quick Take
2023-02-28
Ukraine crisis: Understanding the broader picture
The tense Ukraine crisis has brought the US-Russia standoff to a head: Now what? Geopolitical Strategist Thomas Mucha argues this is all part of a global geopolitical pattern — “great-power” competition — that makes the Russian threat particularly dangerous. Read more.
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Article
2023-02-28
Fixed income: Turn to nontraditional sectors for greater return potential in 2022
As discussed in our 2022 credit sector outlook piece, Break with tradition in 2022, we see opportunities in a few nontraditional credit sectors that stand out to us as having a higher probability of generating excess returns in the months ahead.
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Quick Take
2022-04-30
The critically important national security implications of biotech
Deepening US policy risks in the biotechnology sector have garnered some well-deserved attention from many of my colleagues lately. Given biotechnology’s potential future importance to US policymakers in the context of the ongoing US-China “great-power” competition, I’d like to share my own thoughts on what’s driving the rising geopolitical risk and national security concerns.
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Quick Take
2022-04-30
Ukraine crisis: Understanding the broader picture
I believe the current standoff between Russia and the West over Ukraine is part of a global geopolitical pattern of “great-power” competition. As I explore in my 2022 Outlook, the geopolitical backdrop is becoming increasingly unpredictable and dangerous. This shift is driven primarily by US-China rivalry but also other structural factors such as domestic political polarization, and longer term, the growing impact of climate change on national security. In this new geopolitical reality, I think great powers will be more likely to act out of regional and global self-interest, especially in relation to geostrategic issues they consider core to national security. For Russia, Ukraine is such a critical security consideration and part of its wider strong geostrategic desire for cultivating “buffer states.” Accordingly, the Russian invasion threat to Ukraine is real, structural, and rooted in this emerging world order.
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Quick Take
2022-04-30
2021 Responsible Investor USA conference: Climate investor spotlight
In this event replay from the 2021 Responsible Investor USA conference, Portfolio Manager Alan Hsu discusses how you can dynamically build a portfolio of stocks for a pragmatic net zero CO2 strategy.
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Replay
2023-01-31
Euro area: Challenging long-held assumptions
We believe 2022 will be the year when macroeconomic and political developments challenge two deep-rooted misperceptions about the euro area:
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Quick Take
2022-04-30
What if…? Contemplating five big questions for 2022
Could there be policy, inflation, or market surprises in 2022? Multi-Asset Strategist Adam Berger weighs the possibilities and the portfolio implications.
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ARTICLE
2023-02-28
Monthly Market Snapshot: January 2022
A monthly update on equity, fixed income, currency, and commodity markets.
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Article
2022-07-15
The latest market sell-off: Regime change in the making?
What a difference a few weeks can make in the equity market! The sharp, swift sell-off through the first month of this year is raising some difficult questions for investors, chiefly: Are we just witnessing a long-overdue short-term correction in the more speculative areas of the market, or perhaps something more fundamental (and enduring) that could portend a broader unwinding of equity risk?
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Quick Take
2022-03-31
Value versus growth: expect volatility more than a smooth transition of leadership
Even if a "growth to value" regime change is underway, investors should expect volatility more than a smooth transition of leadership. Thematic Strategist Trevor Noren shares his perspective and those of several Wellington colleagues.
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Quick Take
2022-03-31
High yield: Be ready for sideways moves, bouts of volatility in 2022
Our high-yield portfolio managers believe investors should stand ready to dynamically adjust positioning in a year that could see sideways spread moves and plenty of market volatility.
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Quick Take
2022-08-31
Playing inflation defense with fixed income in 2022
For fixed income investors who are worried about the double threat of higher inflation and rising rates, there are strategies that may help insulate a bond portfolio. Fixed Income Investment Director Amar Reganti and Investment Specialist Jonathan Tan offer up some suggestions.
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Quick Take
2022-02-28
Monthly Market Snapshot: December 2021
A monthly update on equity, fixed income, currency, and commodity markets.
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Article
2022-07-15
Integrating climate change into capital market assumptions: our approach and findings
Members of our Investment Strategy team explain how they are incorporating climate-related inputs, including physical and transition risks, into their capital market assumptions and outline the impact of these changes at the asset-class level.
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Article
2023-01-31
Financial Market Review: Fourth quarter 2021
A quarterly review of results in the global equity, fixed income, currency, and commodity markets.
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Article
2022-07-15
2022 Alternative Investment Outlook
Our 2022 Alternative Investment Outlook looks at 5 areas of focus for the coming year and explores private equity markets and ESG opportunities.
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ARTICLE
2022-12-31
Ten essential climate questions for private companies
We explore how climate change impacts private companies and share the top questions for companies to be prepared to address as this issue grows.
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Quick Take
2022-06-30
Why COP26 was (probably) more constructive than headlines suggest
From better targets to methane to financial commitments, a climate investor shares his views on the lasting positive outcomes likely to emerge from the recent global conference on climate change.
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Quick Take
2022-07-31
2022 ESG & Sustainability Outlook
Our 2022 ESG & Sustainability Outlook previews our climate research and engagement approach for the coming year and offers investment strategy considerations.
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Article
2022-12-31
Seven reasons Japanese equities are worth another look
Investment Strategy Analysts Steven Ye and Daniel Cook make their case for Japanese equities, based on valuations, the “benefits” of inflation, the potential for event-driven outperformance, and other factors that may be underappreciated by the market.
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Quick Take
2022-09-30
Quality-growth investing amid inflation and rising rates
We discuss how today's market impacts growth companies, including which areas are well positioned for the year ahead.
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Article
2022-12-31
Fed watch 2022: Year of the hawk?
With inflation on the rise and all eyes seemingly on the Fed these days, Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Jeremy Forster shares his takeaways from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)'s December 2021 meeting.
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Quick Take
2022-07-29
Will Omicron derail the global cycle?
The short answer is probably not, but it’s a fast-moving narrative that warrants some level of concern (though not panic). Global Investment Strategist Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson relays what we know (and don’t know) at this point and weighs in on some of the potential implications.
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Quick Take
2022-07-29
Three transition year themes — inflation, capital, ESG
Insurance Multi-Asset Strategist Tim Antonelli believes 2022 could be a year of transition for the global insurance industry, with the three big themes of inflation, capital, and ESG likely to play prominent roles in many insurers’ strategic planning and decisions.
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Article
2022-12-01
Blast from the past: Are we watching the return of 1970s-style stagflation?
How worried should investors be about the risk of stagflation? Portfolio Manager Nick Petrucelli offers his take, digging into previous occurrences for clues about the causes that may be most relevant today and outlining the potential outcomes and capital market implications.
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Article
2022-12-31
2022 Fixed Income Outlook
Our fixed income outlook for 2022, examines our views on inflation and interest rates and the role central banks will play in the coming year.
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Article
2022-11-15
2022 Climate Change Investing Outlook
As the effects of climate change become more difficult to ignore, we suggest focusing on adaptation, mitigation, & engagement for 2022 climate investing plans.
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Article
2022-12-31
2022 Equity Outlook
Our 2022 Equity Outlook explores opportunities in equity income and emerging markets, along with trends in health care and technology for the coming year
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Article
2023-01-27
Quality-growth investing amid inflation and rising rates
We discuss how today’s market impacts growth companies, including which areas are well positioned for the year ahead.
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Article
2022-12-31
Navigating narrow bond markets: how diversified is your fixed income alpha?
Understanding an active manager’s path and style of alpha generation should be a critical part of anyone’s fixed income manager evaluation process, says Brendan Fludder of our Fundamental Factor Team.
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Quick Take
2022-07-28
Changing “weather” patterns in alternatives and climate
Multi-Asset Strategist Adam Berger offers a forecast on the future of alternative and climate-related investing, with insights on manager selection, public/private allocations, climate-aware capital market assumptions, and a range of other topics.
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Article
2022-11-30
Portfolio sensitivity to interest-rate ups and downs: An analysis of the key drivers
For investors thinking about changes in interest rates and the impact on their portfolios, it’s important to consider what’s driving the change. Investment Strategy Analyst Daniel Cook explains how different asset classes react to changes in real yields and inflation expectations, to help investors manage risk and better understand portfolio bets.
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Article
2022-11-30
Tech WELLcovered: Legacy redefined
Tech innovations are breaking down barriers, enabling us all to leave legacies of progress through the ways we allocate our capital and live our lives. Join us on a journey to witness the past, experience the present, and build a better future — all while capturing tech’s pervasive investable opportunities.
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Article
2022-11-30
Five investment essentials for a post-pandemic world
As the world “gets back to business” in 2022, a cautiously optimistic outlook seems warranted. For investors, it may be a year to think thematically.
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Article
2022-11-30
A credit strategy designed for all seasons
Today’s fixed income allocators face a variety of challenges. Against this backdrop, Multi-Asset Strategist Cara Lafond and Investment Directors Amar Reganti, Chris Perret, and Andrew Bayerl make the case for having an “all-weather” credit portfolio composed of carefully chosen building blocks.
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Article
2022-11-15
2022 Multi-Asset Outlook
In our 2022 Asset Allocation Outlook, we expect markets to focus on central bank efforts to tame inflation look at 5 post-pandemic essentials for 2022.
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Article
2022-12-31
2022 Global Economic Outlook
Our 2022 economic outlook describes the forces we believe will shape macro & market events, including significant inflationary and geopolitical risks.
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Article
2022-11-30
Approach growth differently: think development, not just GDP
We discuss how today's market impacts growth companies, including which areas are well positioned for the year ahead.
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Article
2022-09-30
After the inflection point: How the climate challenge will transform the global economy
The decarbonization commitments of countries around the world will fundamentally reshape the global economy. Members of our Central Macro Team highlight their research findings, from the effects on growth and the cost of capital to the potential for geopolitical conflict and higher inflation.
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Article
2022-10-31
Tech WELLcovered: experience transformed
5G, AI and augmented reality will soon offer exponentially more options for experiences outside of work — with each activity personalised for your interests. Join us on a journey to witness the past, experience the present and transform the way you see the future of fun and the investable opportunities it creates.
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Article
2022-10-31
Should China equity be a stand-alone allocation?
As China’s role on the world stage looms larger, should investors separate the country from the rest of their emerging markets (EM) equity allocation? Three of our multi-asset strategists provide their research-based take, along with some practical considerations.
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2022-05-31
Rising short-termism in fintech has a silver lining
Global Industry Analyst Matt Ross looks at the fintech sector as an example of the long-term alpha opportunity that may be available to patient equity investors.
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Article
2022-03-14
The future of work: Why societal shifts matter
While the pandemic has accelerated existing shifts in people’s working lives, these changes may just be the start. We assess the future of work in 2030 and highlight some potential investment implications.
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Article
2022-09-30
The future of retirement: Aging in 2050
We explore the long-term investment trends associated with global aging through the story of Fang, a fictional Chinese retiree living in 2050.
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Article
2022-09-30
Investing in innovation: Disruption is everywhere
We outline our definition of innovation and answer questions about our views on the breadth and depth of the innovation opportunity, how we identify and compare disruptive companies across industries, and the importance of robust research capabilities — including a private-equity mindset and strong ESG expertise.
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Article
Seven reasons to invest actively in EM equities
Investment Director Andrew Sharp-Paul makes his case for actively managed investment strategies, rooted in fundamental research, as the best way for investors to capitalize on the opportunity set in emerging markets equity.
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Article
2021-12-31
Asia equity investing: The contrarian advantage
An approach targeting underappreciated or misunderstood assets may be particularly suited to Asia market dynamics and to the current potentially reflationary environment.
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Article
2022-08-31
Investing amid the great inflation debate
The global economy is recovering and supporting the performance of risk assets, but rising inflation is a bogeyman now. Global Investment Strategist Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson and Investment Strategy Analyst Daniel Cook offer thoughts on how investors might navigate this mixed picture.
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Article
2022-06-30
The future of youth: Education, entertainment, and relationships transformed
Through the story of Aisha, a hypothetical future teenager in India, we explore how technological disruption will transform how young people prepare for work through education, their forms of entertainment, and how they develop new relationships.
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Article
2022-08-31
A revival in US investment spending: Implications of the Biden infrastructure plan
US Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan discusses six key themes in the US infrastructure proposals, from shovel-ready projects to modernization of the power grid, and considers the broad economic impact and potential for unintended consequences.
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Article
2022-08-31
2021 Alternatives Annual Meeting Highlights
This highlights reel offers a quick look at the topics that are top of mind for our alternatives investors, from credit market dislocations to emerging market themes to cryptocurrencies.
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Replay
2022-07-31
Genomic testing and the future of medicine
We explore the future of genomic testing, the therapeutics it enables, and its impact on the health care system as a whole.
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Video
2022-07-30
Are we on the cusp of an unconstrained bond fund “renaissance”?
Portfolio Managers Brian Garvey and Brij Khurana and Investment Director Brian Doherty see unconstrained fixed income approaches, if properly implemented, as being well suited to the current (or any) market environment.
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Article
2022-07-31
Causes and effects of climate migration: Five essential insights
Climate-driven migration will have important social, economic, and geopolitical consequences. What experiences will drive people to leave their home? Which regions are at risk of disruption? Our Future Themes research team explores this complicated issue, including potential investment implications.
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Article
2022-06-30
Insurance Multi-Asset Outlook —The rising tide of inflation: Risks and opportunities for insurers
COVID vaccination progress and ample policy support may warrant a more pro-risk investment stance going forward, but persistent inflation concerns continue to loom. Multi-Asset Insurance Strategist Tim Antonelli and Investment Strategy Analyst Daniel Cook share insights to help insurers navigate these competing forces.
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video
2022-07-01
Are ESG and policy intervention game changers?
An accelerating focus on ESG and more aggressive policy interventions could change the way we invest in years to come. Marc Piccuirro assesses the implications for investors.
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Article
2022-07-31
EM inflation has arrived, but will it stick around?
Emerging markets inflation has been top of mind for many investors lately. Macro Strategist Gillian Edgeworth, Equity Portfolio Manager Jamie Rice, and Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Michael Henry consider the outlook going forward and potential market implications.
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Article
2022-07-29
Inflation’s big comeback: Should corporate pensions care?
It’s been a long time since anyone worried about inflation getting off the ground. That seems to be changing, and for corporate plans, we think the risk is greater for return-seeking portfolios than liability-hedging portfolios. But we also believe that falling inflation is more worrisome than rising inflation. In this paper, we consider the implications and the potential role of different return-seeking allocations in preparing for various inflation outcomes.
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Article
2022-06-30
A source-based approach to managing inflation risk
Multi-Asset Strategists Nick Samouilhan and Adam Berger present a source-based investment “playbook” that asset allocators can follow as they seek to neutralize the looming threat of higher inflation.
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Article
2022-06-30
The hopeful continent
Equity Portfolio Manager Bo Meunier and Equity Research Analyst David Reid believe the time has come for equity investors to take a closer look at the opportunity set in Africa.
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Article
2022-07-31
China unplugged: Investing in the world’s largest decarbonization effort
China has pledged to target peak emissions by 2030 and net-zero emissions by 2060. This massive environmental...
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Article
2022-07-31
Getting the balance right in today’s high-yield market
Our high-yield team assesses how to navigate today’s high yield market at a time of major spread compression.
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ARTICLE
No way out? Why the Fed may be trapped
Shifting inflation dynamics could box the Fed into a corner and test its resolve going forward. Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Brij Khurana takes a closer look and considers the investment implications.
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Widespread tech innovation: Don’t miss the forest for the really big tree
We explore the innovations driving a multi-decade journey of disruption and highlight the importance of in-depth research to capturing this opportunity.
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Article
2022-05-31
Beyond bitcoin: Eight essential blockchain insights
We look beyond bitcoin to explore eight exciting impacts and opportunities from blockchain technology.
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Article
2023-05-31
The “EM-ification” of DMs
Global Investment Strategist Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson believes that many developed market countries are beginning to resemble their emerging market counterparts in certain ways. Here are some of her findings, along with possible paths forward and potential investment implications.
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Article
2022-06-30
Executive order on China: Biden broadens the brief
Washington’s latest actions targeted at investments in companies linked to the Chinese military-industrial complex represent another important milestone in the long-term trend of US-China decoupling.
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Article
2021-12-31
Insurance Multi-Asset Outlook — Rising rates: Threat or opportunity?
Multi-Asset Insurance Strategist Tim Antonelli and Investment Strategy Analyst Daniel Cook argue that now may be an opportune time for insurers to adopt a more pro-risk stance, despite the potential headwind of rising rates.
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2022-03-31
Why Europe offers a robust hunting ground for small caps
Portfolio Manager Anna Lundén offers her local perspective on Europe, highlighting the inefficiencies created over time by the outperformance of small-cap companies vs large-cap companies.
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2022-04-01
The digital transformation of financial services
We highlight the fintech innovations driving the digitization and disruption of financial services.
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2022-04-01
How will climate interventions affect developed economies
Green spending has been a key element in the stimulus packages announced by Western governments and the EU. But how will these measures play out economically? Macroeconomic Strategist Jens Larsen explains what he believes are the most likely outcomes
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Article
Central bank digital currencies: Debunking five common myths
We discuss how disruptive central bank digital currencies are likely to be and dispel some commonly held CBDC myths.
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Article
2022-04-30
EM equity looks more attractive than it’s been in a decade
Equity Portfolio Manager Jamie Rice describes his bullish stance on emerging markets (EM) equities and looks at China’s burgeoning A-share market.
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Article
ESG research playbook: Health care
Wellington has established frameworks — what we call “research playbooks” — for evaluating companies within each sector based on key ESG criteria. ESG Analyst Lindsay Blitstein looks at the health care sector here.
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ARTICLE
The hidden growth story in Japan tech
Learn why the hidden growth story within Japanese tech is one of our highest conviction themes, especially in the wake of the COVID-19 crisis.
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Article
2022-03-31
EM small caps: Hidden gems in plain sight?
Our team makes the case for strategically investing in EM small caps and for employing an actively managed approach to this underutilized asset class.
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2022-03-31
Never assume and other tips for 2021
Multi-Asset Strategist Adam Berger stress tests the consensus views on four key issues: rising interest rates, high equity valuations, US market leadership, and the impact of slower globalization on China’s growth.
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2022-02-01
A new inflationary regime: Why the next decade could look different from the last
We explore why the risk of structurally higher inflation may be the highest it has been in decades and profile the key investment implications this presents.
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Article
2022-01-31
LDI Alert — Time to prepare for a “clear skies” environment?
Funded-ratio improvements and the associated derisking opportunity can be short-lived. LDI Team members Bill Cole and Connor Fitzgerald offer ideas to help plans ensure they’re ready.
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2022-01-31
Insurers: A potent plan of attack for 2021
In this video interview, Tim Antonelli offers key advice for insurers as they plan for 2021, including a robust to-do list. Tim’s role as a multi-asset insurance strategist uniquely qualifies him to offer outside-the-box ideas that can help insurers anticipate and manage risk. Tim is interviewed by Sarah Marshock, a leader on Wellington’s Financial Reserves Management Team, who offers color on the investment themes she is observing in the market.
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video
2022-01-31
An insurer’s guide to fixed income: Setting the record straight on rates and credit
Investment Directors Abigail Babson, Amar Reganti, and Anand Dharan lay out their proposed framework for building a more resilient fixed income allocation that is equal to the challenges of today’s environment.
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2021-11-01
On the ground in emerging markets
Portfolio Manager Greg Mattiko profiles the COVID-19 pandemic’s varied outcomes on different emerging markets, explores the potential opportunities from falling correlations, and highlights the benefits of a global approach to emerging market investing.
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2021-09-01
Emerging markets: Navigating opportunities and risks in today’s crisis
We explore today’s key emerging markets themes including the impact of COVID-19, China’s evolving global relationships and an increased focus on sustainability.
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2021-08-31
A is for allocation: The rationale for increasing exposure to China
Allocations to China equity are widely recommended, but how much is appropriate and why? We consider several reasons why this may make sense for offshore investors.
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2021-06-30