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FOMC: Stable policy amid market volatility
The Fed is holding steady amid market turmoil. See our quick notes on the FOMC's March policy statement, forecasts, and the Fed chair's press conference.
Quick Take
2025-03-31
Will proposed corporate governance reforms help to narrow the “Korea discount”?
Could South Korea's Corporate Value-up Program help to narrow the so-called “Korea discount” and build on the momentum gathering pace elsewhere across Asia to improve corporate governance and shareholder returns?
Quick Take
2025-03-31
Agency MBS key questions for 2024
Is there room for mortgage spreads to tighten further? Brian Conroy and Joseph Marvan examine this and seven other questions that will be significant for the agency MBS market in 2024.
Quick Take
2025-03-31
Time for small caps to shine?
Multi-Asset Strategist Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson sees reasons to believe there may be brighter days ahead for US small-cap stocks, including the economic outlook, valuations, and market inefficiencies.
Quick Take
2025-03-31
Top 5 fixed income ideas for 2024
With central banks set to pivot to accommodative policy, and elevated yields still prevailing, we think fixed income offers compelling opportunities. Here we share our top five ideas.
Quick Take
2025-02-28
CLOs: 4 hot topics
Bank demand, net supply, the cycle for broadly syndicated loans, and loan fundamentals will be front and center for CLO investors in 2024.
Quick Take
2025-02-28
Emerging markets debt: resilience in the face of adversity
Our expert discusses why she is positive on the outlook for emerging markets debt, even though growth will likely slow.
Quick Take
2025-01-31
The shifting liquidity landscape: What’s at stake?
The beginning of the end could be in sight for the Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening (QT) program. US Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan considers the Fed's next steps and what they could mean for banks, liquidity, and markets broadly.
Quick Take
2025-01-31
Bizarro World: Could 2024 be the opposite of 2023?
Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Brij Khurana details the dynamics that may upend investor expectations of a repeat of 2023 this year.
Quick Take
2025-01-17
Global high-yield outlook: Near term, defensive but longer term, solid
High-yield portfolio managers Mike Barry and Konstantin Leidman discuss their 2024 outlook and the merits of a near-term defensive stance with an eye on longer-term opportunities.
Quick Take
2024-12-22
Fed’s projections yielded mixed results this year — what’s in store for 2024?
Our Fed watcher opines on 2023 policy and looks ahead to 2024.
Quick Take
2024-12-14
Should investors prepare for a rate hike in Japan?
Investment Directors Marco Giordano and Masahiko Loo discuss why a rate rise in Japan may occur sooner than markets expect.
Quick Take
2024-12-04
Full speed ahead: China’s race to implement AI
Our experts examine market implications of China's AI expedition.
Quick Take
2024-11-29
Look below the surface: A contrarian view on China equities
Equity expert, Ben Chen, dives into China's murky investment landscape.
Quick Take
2024-11-28
Securitized debt: Strategies for navigating emerging cracks in consumers’ financial health
Our expert highlights reasons for deteriorating consumer financial health and explores strategies for mitigating risk in securitized asset-backed securities.
Quick Take
2024-11-20
You snooze, you may lose: The case for bonds
There are signs the Federal Reserve's rate-hiking cycle may be nearing an end, but some uncertainty remains. With that in mind, Multi-Asset Strategist Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson considers the timing of a move from cash to bonds.
Quick Take
2024-11-14
The “cleanest dirty shirt” now has too many stains
Fixed Income Portfolio Manager posits that US fiscal profligacy will change the game for asset allocators.
Quick Take
2024-09-28
Shareholder activism in Japan: Integrating ESG within the investment process
In the final article within our series on shareholder activism in Japan, ESG Analyst Soo Ho Jung shares how the Japan equity team integrates ESG to help realize value for investors.
Quick Take
2024-09-26
Fed not yet willing to declare victory on inflation
We think the Fed is done raising rates for this cycle, despite the likelihood that they are being overly optimistic about inflation. Read to find out why.
Quick Take
2024-09-21
Public CRE debt — Risk, opportunity, or both?
Our experts explore the implications of the ongoing stress in the public CRE debt, or commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS), space for investors and analyze risks and opportunities for ratings-constrained insurers.
Quick Take
2024-09-07
Green horizons: How the shift toward sustainable finance may reshape fixed income markets
Three sustainability trends have the potential to reshape fixed income markets, leading to a range of new opportunities for investors.
Quick Take
2024-09-07
Reasons for optimism about Indian equities
Our experts explain why, despite criticisms that Indian equities trade at higher valuations today than they have historically, they may have the potential to help drive total returns over time.
Quick Take
2024-08-28
After the US downgrade: Thoughts on public debt, bond yields, and Fed policy
In the wake of the US debt downgrade by Fitch, Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan explains what worries her most about the nation's debt situation and considers the impact on the term premium and the Fed’s plans.
Quick Take
2024-08-22
Commercial property values shrinking? No problem for big cities
We analyze the impact of declining office property values and outline the reasons why they believe large cities should be able to weather the storm of shrinking commercial property value.
Quick Take
2024-08-17
Why cash won’t cut it for long: The case for bonds
Global Investment and Multi-Asset Strategist Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson and Investment Strategy Analyst Patrick Wattiau explore the relative potential benefits of bonds versus cash.
Quick Take
2024-08-17
What AI could mean for fixed income
Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Brij Khurana details the potential effects of artificial intelligence on the fixed income market.
Quick Take
2024-08-14
How would emerging markets weather a “standard” recession?
Macro Strategist Gillian Edgeworth explores the potential impact of a developed market recession on emerging markets.
Quick Take
2024-08-11
Seven observations on the latest US/China executive order
Geopolitical Strategist Thomas Mucha shares his analysis of the recent Biden administration executive order, which aims to restrict investment into certain sectors in China, and details the potential investment implications.
Quick Take
2024-08-11
How to interpret the Bank of Japan’s latest policy shift
We analyse the wide-ranging investment implications of the Bank of Japan's latest policy shift.
Quick Take
2024-08-04
Shareholder activism in Japan: How our engagement approach drives value
Equity Portfolio Manager Katsuhiro Iwai introduces the Japan equity investment team's approach to engagement, sharing a number of successful recent case studies.
Quick Take
2024-08-04
US loses its AAA rating (again)
US Macro Strategist Michael Medeiros analyzes Fitch's recent downgrade of US credit quality and explores the bigger issues at play.
Quick Take
2024-08-02
Chair Powell maintains optionality
Fixed Income Analyst Caroline Casavant shares what she thinks matters most for investors in light of the latest interest-rate hike from the Fed.
Quick Take
2024-07-27
Bank loans remain attractive despite macroeconomic uncertainty
Our experts believe that bank loans currently offer attractive levels of income and have already priced in an overly bearish macroeconomic view.
Quick Take
2024-07-24
State of the credit markets: Does cash rule everything around us?
Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Brij Khurana outlines the state of the credit market today, compares historical periods of quantitative easing, and warns credit investors of cash scarcity in the near future.
Quick Take
2024-07-06
Investing in the age of great-power competition
As competition between great powers intensifies, a new global order is taking shape. Geopolitical Strategist Thomas Mucha explores the investment implications of a more fragmented and fractious world.
Quick Take
2024-06-30
Financial materiality: The cornerstone of the ISSB’s global baseline for sustainability disclosure
The new standards may help provide market participants with data necessary to price sustainability-related risks and opportunities, which can feed directly into the assessment of enterprise value.
Quick Take
2024-06-29
More green shoots: Tracking trends in sustainable debt issuance
While growth in the sustainable debt market has been uneven, certain pockets offer substantial opportunities. Two of our fixed income investment professionals weigh in.
Quick Take
2024-06-26
Fed skips along the path to a pause
Jeremy Forster analyzes the Federal Reserve's decision to pause its interest-rate hiking cycle, explains why he believes it could be an extended pause, and shares the potential implications for fixed income markets.
Quick Take
2024-06-15
Activism – History and evolution in Japan
Investment Specialist Toshiki Izumi examines the history of shareholder activism in Japan, with particular emphasis on the differences between current and historical attitudes toward activism.
Quick Take
2024-06-12
A quiet bull market in EM local debt?
Brian Garvey illustrates the recent strength of emerging markets local debt following an extended period of underperformance.
Quick Take
2024-06-30
Is the structural case for inflation still intact?
Even if inflation cools in the coming months, members of our Investment Strategy team expect it to be "stickier" over the long term. Find out how that might impact asset allocation decisions.
Quick Take
2024-05-29
Have you looked at Brazilian equities lately?
Equity Research Analyst David Reid believes now is an opportune time for EM equity investors to consider implementing or augmenting portfolio allocations to Brazilian stocks.
Quick Take
2024-05-22
Adapting our capital market assumptions to the realities of climate risk
How will asset prices be affected by climate risk? Members of our Investment Strategy team explain how they're seeking to answer that question with their new climate-aware capital market assumptions.
Quick Take
2024-04-30
US debt-ceiling risk: Justifiable jitters?
With markets on high alert around the US debt-ceiling standoff, Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan lays out some possible paths forward and weighs the economic risks.
Quick Take
2024-02-29
Sector rotation opportunities for nimble credit investors
Following a credit market rally, Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Rob Burn still sees value in higher-yielding sectors but believes investors should stay nimble.
Quick Take
2024-02-29
European equities: a complex story
Macro Strategist Nicolas Wylenzek examines the complex prospects of European equities from both a near-term and structural perspective.
Quick Take
2024-02-29
Debt and dysfunction in Washington: The US hits the ceiling (again)
Global Investment Strategist Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson talks to Macro Strategist Mike Medeiros about the US debt-ceiling showdown and considers its potential investment implications.
Quick Take
2024-02-29
What’s driving convertibles in 2023?
Following a challenging 2022, Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Mike Barry and Investment Director Raina Dunkelberger highlight three tailwinds that may help turn the tide for convertibles.
Quick Take
2024-01-31
Peak inflation, back to goldilocks? Not so fast
Portfolio Manager Nicholas Petrucelli explains why the market could be underestimating just how complex and volatile the global economic cycle is and details the implications for inflation.
Quick Take
2024-02-29
February Fed meeting: Chair Powell strikes a more optimistic tone
The Fed just might still be able to engineer the hoped-for "soft landing" but it's not going to be easy, says Fixed Income Analyst Caroline Casavant.
Quick Take
2023-09-30
CLOs: Poised to outperform in 2023?
Collateralized loan obligations (CLOs) have been sparking investor interest lately — and with good reason, say Investment Director Andrew Bayerl and Investment Specialist Celene Klimas.
Quick Take
2024-01-31
Can US bank loans “carry” investors through 2023?
Fixed Income Portfolios managers Jeffrey Heuer, CFA and David Marshak and Investment Director Nick Leichtman describe what they see as the most prudent approach to the bank loans asset class in 2023 and why.
Quick Take
2024-01-31
Could Japan face a UK-style pension crisis?
Investment Director Masahiko Loo explores the risks of Japan facing a UK-style pension crisis and identifies fundamental reasons that make Japanese pension funds inherently less vulnerable.
Quick Take
2024-01-31
US recession risk: No longer if, but when and how bad
Portfolio Managers Brij Khurana, Brian Garvey, and Nick Petrucelli believe many observers are underestimating the severity of a potential US recession this year.
Quick Take
2024-01-31
Take credit: Our five best credit market ideas for 2023
Fixed Income Strategist Amar Reganti highlights credit market opportunities that he expects to arise over the course of 2023, against a backdrop of slowing growth.
Quick Take
2024-01-31
High yield: Opportunity to pivot in 2023?
Our high-yield bond portfolio managers have a guardedly optimistic outlook on the market and believe security selection will be key to benchmark-relative outperformance in 2023.
Quick Take
2024-01-31
Currency outlook: Nearing the end of USD exceptionalism?
Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Martin Harvey and Investment Communications Manager Jitu Naidu consider the present state of and outlook for the US dollar.
Quick Take
2023-12-31
The Fed’s unenviable task for 2023
Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Jeremy Forster offers his forward-looking take on the Fed's comments and latest rate hike coming out of its December meeting.
Quick Take
2023-12-31
A new blueprint for US trade: Building a more resilient, sustainable, and competitive economy
Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan explains how the Biden administration is reshaping US trade policy to reflect today's global realities, including supply-chain challenges, decarbonization, and geopolitical turmoil.
Quick Take
2023-12-31
Hidden in plain sight: Overlooked opportunities in investment-grade credit
Fixed Income Strategist Amar Reganti and Investment Specialist Geoff Austein-Miller highlight some relatively simple, straightforward ways to implement a positive view on high-quality corporate credit.
Quick Take
2023-12-31
Recession risks and markets: Can we avoid a COVID hangover?
Current earnings forecasts and asset prices suggest overly optimistic expectations for the global economy and markets in 2023, according to Equity Portfolio Manager Dan Pozen.
Quick Take
2023-11-30
By design and by default: Industry consolidation gathers steam across India
Equity Portfolio Manager Murali Srikantaiai sees increased industry consolidation in India as a largely positive trend from which some equity investors can (and should) seek to benefit.
Quick Take
2023-11-30
Physical climate risks: Implications for investors
Director of Climate Research Chris Goolgasian and Woodwell Climate Scientist Zach Zobel discuss how investors might use climate science as an input for financial decision-making.
Quick Take
2023-04-30
Three tailwinds that could power CLO equity in 2023 and beyond
Three members of our fixed income team argue that the headwinds currently facing CLO equity should give way to improved returns in 2023 and beyond.
Quick Take
2023-11-30
November FOMC meeting: How slow can the Fed go?
Investment Specialist Caroline Casavant shares her takeaways from the November FOMC meeting, including thoughts on the likely pace of further Fed interest-rate hikes.
Quick Take
2023-01-31
Bank of Japan policy shift: Waiting for the other shoe to drop?
Client Portfolio Manager Jitu Naidu and Investment Director Masahiko Loo share their take on the consensus view that Japan has reached several key inflection points.
Quick Take
2023-01-31
India equity: An unsung long-term performance story
Despite strong long-term performance, Indian equities are often overlooked. That may be a mistake, say Equity Portfolio Manager Niraj Bhagwat and Investment Director Philip Brooks.
Quick Take
2023-10-31
Can agency MBS bounce back from dismal performance?
Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Brian Conroy and two colleagues weigh in on the mortgage-backed securities (MBS) market in the wake of a very challenging month.
Quick Take
2023-01-31
China equity: Is today's investor pessimism overdone?
The short answer is yes, say Equity Portfolio Manager Niraj Bhagwat and Investment Director Philip Brooks, who believe China may offer a short-term buying opportunity.
Quick Take
2023-10-31
Equity market volatility is perking up: Why now?
The recent uptick in equity volatility may be about looming macro and systemic risks in today's uncertain environment. Director of Global Derivatives Gordy Lawrence explains.
Quick Take
2023-10-31
Bank loans: Can issuers overcome higher interest expenses?
The short answer, according to Fixed Income Portfolio Managers Jeff Heuer and David Marshak, is that many can. And, they believe bank loans can outperform many other fixed-income sectors over the next 12 months.
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Quick Take
2023-01-31
The Fed’s “lean, leave, then clean” strategy
US inflation could prove "stickier" than many observers think. How might that influence Fed policy into 2023? Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Jeremy Forster opines.
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Quick Take
2022-12-31
India: Growth drivers are in place
Following a recent visit to India, Macro Strategist Tushar Poddar shares his take on the country's changing macro environment and its equity market.
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Quick Take
2023-09-30
Germany: Reducing Russian energy dependence in a hurry
Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan sees Germany continuing to embrace the transition to renewables while also working to diversify its sources of fossil fuels.
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Quick Take
2022-12-30
Sustainable fixed income: Key terms allocators should know
ESG integration versus sustainable investing: What’s the difference? We explain a few key distinctions that are important for allocators to understand.
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Quick Take
2023-06-30
What does an equity market bottom look like?
Applying a historical analysis to today's market, Multi-Asset Portfolio Manager Nick Petrucelli believes US equities have not yet found a near-term bottom.
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Quick Take
2022-11-30
No more Mr. Nice Guy? Fed Chair Powell talks tough on inflation
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Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Brij Khurana offers his latest thoughts on Fed policy following the central bank's recent Jackson Hole meeting.
Quick Take
2023-09-30
US/China relations: What next after Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan?
Geopolitical Strategist Thomas Mucha assesses the escalating tension in US/China relations following US Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan.
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Quick Take
2022-11-30
Investment takeaways from the latest inflation data
With 2022's structural inflation story still very much intact, now may be a particularly opportune time for investors to add real-asset and inflation-sensitive exposures to their portfolios.
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Quick Take
2022-11-30
Wellington investor survey: Global recession tops investors’ concerns
The latest Wellington investor survey shows that our investment teams are increasingly concerned about the economic cycle, with 45% seeing a global recession over the next 12 months as the most likely outcome.
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Quick Take
2022-11-30
The shrinking central bank balance sheet: A credit market opportunity
With the shift in central bank policy, heightened volatility and dispersion may yield a promising environment for exploiting credit market inefficiencies.
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Quick Take
2022-11-30
Positioning for a “pricey” recession scenario
Client Portfolio Manager Jitu Naidu and Fixed Income Strategist Amar Reganti offer portfolio positioning ideas for the potential recession scenario that may lie ahead.
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Quick Take
2022-11-30
Why today’s fixed income market is fertile ground for active management
Skilled active management has potential to shine in times of increased dispersion across fixed income sectors and regions. Now may be one of those times.
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Quick Take
2022-12-31
Reckoning with recession risk: Why this one may be “pricey”
Client Portfolio Manager Jitu Naidu shares his latest take on the looming risk of a global economic recession and related issues.
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Quick Take
2022-11-30
Global convertibles: Unprecedented times call for unconventional solutions
Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Michael Barry and Investment Director Raina Dunkelberger argue that global convertible bonds are well suited to today's uncertain market environment.
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Quick Take
2022-11-30
Fixed income: Relative value opportunities amid growth slowdown
In the face of this year's fixed income market turmoil, Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Rob Burn sees attractive opportunities for investors with longer-term time horizons.
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Quick Take
2022-10-31
Fed rate hikes: A tailwind for bonds?
Global Investment Strategist Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson believes higher-quality, longer-duration bonds may prove resilient even if the Fed keeps raising short-term rates into 2023.
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Quick Take
2022-10-31
Fintech industry outlook in a recession
We explore the current environment for the fintech industry and highlight a few factors that show why the outlook for payments and other related subindustries may be less challenging than many may anticipate.
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Quick Take
2023-07-31
July Fed meeting: Rising inflation vs falling growth
After another rate hike, the Fed must balance moderating growth with mounting inflation. Caroline Casavant opines on how the central bank might navigate this dilemma.
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Quick Take
2022-10-31
US housing: Are the headwinds stronger than the tailwinds?
In the second of a two-part series, Fixed Income Credit Analyst Daniel Kim looks at the downside risks facing the US housing market and concludes that positive structural trends around supply, affordability, and home prices should continue to support the sector.
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Quick Take
2022-10-31
Impact investing: Increasing needs, broadening opportunities
Members of our impact investing team, offer a brief update on our impact platform, which continues to evolve amid an expanding opportunity set in developed and emerging market equities and fixed income.
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Quick Take
2022-12-31
Climate change investing: Research and collaboration continue
Our research into the economic impacts of climate change continues to expand, as does our climate-related engagement and industry-leadership efforts. Members of our Climate Research Team summarize our ongoing progress.
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Quick Take
2022-12-01
Don’t be surprised if CLO equity surprises to the upside
Members of our fixed income team, including Portfolio Manager Alyssa Irving, believe CLO equity could be poised to outperform many other risk assets over the next few years.
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Quick Take
2022-10-31
Credit investing against a slower-growth, higher-inflation backdrop
The significant flattening of the US Treasury yield curve in recent months has some prognosticators calling for an impending US recession. Not so fast, says Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Rob Burn.
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Quick Take
2022-07-31
Sustainable fixed income investing entering the mainstream
This short piece explores the continued rise of sustainable fixed income investing and links to a more in-depth white paper on the topic.
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Quick Take
2022-12-31
US housing: There’s no place like home
While US housing activity is slowing, positive fundamentals and favorable supply/demand dynamics may continue to support the sector.
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Quick Take
2022-10-31
Credit and equity risk back on speaking terms, but will it last?
Following their uncharacteristic rift and recent reconciliation, Director of Wellington’s Global Derivatives Group Gordy Lawrence considers whether equity volatility and credits spreads are likely to remain in harmony.
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Quick Take
2022-10-31
Evolving impact investing for better potential outcomes
Our impact portfolio managers provide a snapshot of recent highlights and developments in impact investing.
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Quick Take
2022-09-30
A transition year for agency MBS?
Following a challenging period for agency MBS, members of our securitized team now see attractive opportunities in the space and believe actively managed strategies may be the best way for many investors to capitalize.
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Quick Take
2022-07-31
Three overlooked opportunities in today’s markets
Portfolio Manager Brian Garvey highlights three large macro dislocations in today's environment that he believes the capital markets have yet to price in.
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Quick Take
2023-06-30
Timely musings on Fed policy and inflation
With rising inflation and interest rates dominating the financial headlines in recent weeks, I have been fielding a flurry of colleague and client questions about the likely future trajectory of US monetary policy. While I don’t claim to have all the answers, especially with so many “known unknowns” as of this writing, here are my latest thoughts.
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Quick Take
2022-08-30
How the Russia/Ukraine conflict has galvanized the West
Geopolitical Strategist Thomas Mucha provides his latest insights on the Russia/Ukraine conflict, particularly with regard to its significant and potentially enduring impact on US/EU relations.
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Quick Take
2022-08-30
How the public market correction is affecting the late-stage private equity market
The times they are a-changin’. The late-stage private equity market is digesting a public growth multiple collapse that took us from boom to bust in four months. But while valuations may be coming down in the private market as a result, the opportunity-creating trends of technology disrupting all parts of the economy and companies staying private longer remain in place.
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Quick Take
2022-09-30
US inflation risk, angry bondholders, and silver linings
Here are quick thoughts on some common questions I’ve been asked recently about Fed policy, yields, the US dollar, and financial markets.
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Quick Take
2022-08-31
Is it too soon to call a “top” in US interest rates?
Are we nearing the top of the 10-year treasury rate?
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Quick Take
2023-05-31
Empirical duration: reason for optimism on risk assets?
While rising rates often produce negative bond returns, combining the concept of empirical duration with a positive outlook on the credit cycle may bode well for some fixed income sectors' return prospects going forward. Investment Analyst Will Prenits and Investment Director Tobias Ripka explain.
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Quick Take
2022-07-31
Six reasons India may be on the cusp of a major upcycle
Numerous positive structural and cyclical factors are pointing towards a major economic upcycle in India over the next five to six years, in our view, creating a range of potential investment opportunities. We believe India’s market is supported by an evolving investment universe, powerful demographic trends, increasing urbanisation and rising wealth, export growth, geopolitical tailwinds and a supportive policy regime. These factors are coalescing at a time when the corporate deleveraging cycle of the last few years is coming to an end and a new upcycle in profitability could be beginning.
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Quick Take
2022-12-30
Will Japanese buyers look beyond USD fixed income? They may have to
With the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) interest-rate-hiking cycle now underway, it’s an important time to keep a close eye on non-US buyers of US dollar (USD) fixed income securities.
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Quick Take
2022-07-31
Helping European investors navigate inflation fears
The recent shift to a higher inflation regime, with resulting expectations of tighter monetary policy and rising interest rates, presents a material challenge for European fixed income investors. Against this backdrop, Investment Analyst Will Prentis and Investment Director Tobias Ripka believe investment flexibility is key.
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Quick Take
2022-07-31
Five reasons to take a closer look at Brazil
I have published my views on Brazil more than once over the past year (most recently in my November 2021 blog post), but the environment there has changed markedly through the first few months of this year, with COVID-related risks seemingly on the wane and the Russia/Ukraine conflict having driven up commodity prices — so I thought now would be an opportune time to share a fresh perspective on South America’s most populous country.
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Quick Take
2022-07-31
Five reasons to take a closer look at Brazil
I have published my views on Brazil more than once over the past year (most recently in my November 2021 blog post), but the environment there has changed markedly through the first few months of this year, with COVID-related risks seemingly on the wane and the Russia/Ukraine conflict having driven up commodity prices — so I thought now would be an opportune time to share a fresh perspective on South America’s most populous country.
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Quick Take
2022-07-31
Global convertibles: Poised to benefit from five structural tailwinds
Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Michael Barry and Investment Specialist Raina Dunkelberger believe global convertible bonds are likely to outperform other fixed income sectors over an investment time horizon of approximately two to three years. Learn why.
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Quick Take
2022-07-31
The full climate-investing opportunity
From devastating floods in Australia — tragically, in many of the same areas hit by fires in recent years — to wildfires in Europe and the US, widespread disasters bring into stark reality the consequences today of a changing climate. The human toll of these events has become an unfortunate yet familiar part of the news cycle, but the second-order impacts of climate change on financial markets are sometimes less well understood. Many traditional approaches to climate investing have rightly focused on these risks, but we believe both their approach and their scope are often incomplete and lacking nuance, thereby creating inefficiencies in the climate-investing landscape.
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Quick Take
2023-04-30
Addressing the shared financial challenge of climate change
In February, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a body of the United Nations, released its Sixth Assessment Report, “Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability.” While the full report is 3,675 page long, the Technical Summary is just 96 pages and well worth the read. In the Summary alone, climate adaptation is referenced 442 times, versus 60 for climate mitigation.
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Quick Take
2022-07-30
Bank loans: Resiliency amid volatility
In the face of ongoing geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty, including the prospect of steadily rising interest rates, our floating-rate bank loan team maintains a bullish outlook for the sector. Emboldened by a strong US economy and mounting inflationary pressures, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) enacted its first 25 basis-point (bp) increase in interest rates since 2018. Additionally, Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s recent rhetoric has become more hawkish, including suggesting the possibility of a 50 bp rate hike in the coming months. The market is now pricing in the fed funds rate to rise to around 2.5% by the end of 2022 (from its current target of 25-50 bps).
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Quick Take
2022-07-31
Global credit: Where do we go from here?
Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Mahmoud El-Shaer explores why 2022 may be a momentous year for global credit and sets out a framework to think through potential investment implications. 2022 promises to be another challenging year for central banks as they attempt to normalise policies in the face of surging inflation, while navigating the growing fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Since 2009, there has essentially been one trade in capital markets: riding a huge wave of central bank liquidity in support of the financial system and the economy, with the G4 central banks alone pumping approximately US$20 trillion into the system via quantitative easing (QE).
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Quick Take
2022-07-31
Crypto beyond the hype: Insights for institutional investors
We highlight a few practical insights on cryptocurrencies for institutional investors evaluating the asset class, including our views on custody, regulation, and more.
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Quick Take
2022-12-31
Four potentially powerful tailwinds for the securitized sector
In his latest Top of Mind session, Multi-Asset Strategist Adam Berger addressed a wide range of what-if scenarios on the minds of our clients. See what he has to say on Russia, China, cryptocurrencies, the IPO market, and many other topics in this brief article.
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Quick Take
2022-06-30
Stewardship and engagement: 2021 highlights and 2022 goals
Wellington’s long-standing commitment to deep fundamental research and meaningful engagement with investee companies continues to drive positive engagement outcomes that we believe support and enhance long-term investment value for our clients. We are proud of progress we made in 2021 advancing our stewardship priorities, and we have seen many positive outcomes spanning a range of environmental, social, and governance (ESG) issues. We look forward to continued momentum on ESG and to expanding our influence via active ownership in 2022.
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Quick Take
2023-07-31
Why I’m getting more bullish on biotech
The biotechnology sector, especially SMID-cap biotech equities, suffered a dramatic drawdown in 2021. Investor sentiment toward the sector remains poor, but my outlook has become increasingly bullish as multiple headwinds facing biotech over the past year or so begin to abate and turn into potential tailwinds for 2022 and beyond. Encouragingly, the level of innovation across the industry has never been higher, in my view. I believe many biotech stocks may be nearing a bottom, even though the exact timing of (and catalyst for) a rebound remains unclear as of this writing.
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Quick Take
2022-06-30
How might equity sectors fare when Fed tightening begins?
We look back at how US equities have performed in the months following the beginning of a tightening cycle, as well as how bond yields have tended to behave.
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Quick Take
2022-05-31
China in 2022: Embracing the volatility
China’s new antitrust, data privacy and cybersecurity regulations, combined with its education and real estate industry reforms, the continued impact of COVID-19 and rising geopolitical tensions, drove a tumultuous investment environment last year. The country’s numerous headline-grabbing changes spurred global concern given the philosophical shift towards “Common Prosperity” and the sheer scale and speed of policymaking.
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Quick Take
2022-08-31
An inside look at today’s municipal market
After a year in which municipal bonds posted respectable returns (Figure 1), many clients have been seeking forward-looking guidance on the market as a whole and (increasingly) on particular sectors of it. Here are my latest thoughts as of this writing on the outlook for the rest of 2022.
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Quick Take
2022-05-31
EM local debt: Forgotten but not forsaken
The emerging markets (EM) local debt sector (as measured by the JP Morgan Government Bond Index – Emerging Markets Global Diversified) just posted its worst calendar-year performance since 2013, returning -8.75% against the headwind of higher EM local interest rates. The underlying culprit? EM inflation surprised to the upside in 2021, forcing a number of EM central banks to raise their policy interest rates in an effort to curb the impact.
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Quick Take
2022-09-30
Commodities in 2022: Opportunities amid inflation
Inflation is quickly becoming top of mind for many as everything from ice cream to cars gets more expensive. Investors are beginning to recognize that we’re experiencing the highest inflation levels in 40 years. In our view, we may be entering a market that could be quite favorable for inflation-hedging assets broadly and commodities, in particular. Critically, this environment is coming on the heels of a decade or more of institutions deallocating from inflation-sensitive areas.
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Quick Take
2022-08-31
Amid heightened regulation and geopolitical tension, is China still investable?
Recent regulatory announcements have sent shivers through a wide swath of China’s economy, including the technology, finance, gaming, and property sectors, and tensions between China and the US continue to simmer. But while I understand the market’s reaction to these risks, I take a long-term perspective on China’s investability.
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Quick Take
2022-05-31
Regime change likely to challenge modern market structures
Recently, I wrote about the rotation from growth to value and why some of my colleagues and I expect volatility, more than a smooth transition of leadership, to define markets. The thesis is rooted in the fact that seismic macro questions loom over markets and are likely to trigger violent fluctuations in investor conviction. Earlier this month, Macro Strategist John Butler dissected one of these questions: Will the negative correlation between stocks and bonds turn positive?
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Quick Take
2022-05-31
Credit and equity performance around Fed hiking cycles
One of the discussion topics du jour is how the credit and equity markets might react to the US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest-rate hikes that are widely anticipated in the coming months. As is often the case with me, I find it helpful here to refer to past hiking regimes and market performances as a sort of guidepost.
The proof’s in the pudding
To wit, I examined the historical returns of both US credit (for this purpose, proxied by corporate high-yield bonds) and US equities (represented by the S&P 500 Index) during the six months before the first rate increase of a Fed hiking cycle through the 12 months after said increase.
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Quick Take
2022-05-31
Can Ukraine’s economy withstand another conflict with Russia?
Macro Strategist Gillian Edgeworth assesses Ukraine’s outlook in the face of renewed conflict with Russia and finds that under most scenarios Ukraine's macro-economic prospects may be less negative than perhaps is assumed.
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2023-02-28
Fixed income: Turn to nontraditional sectors for greater return potential in 2022
As discussed in our 2022 credit sector outlook piece, Break with tradition in 2022, we see opportunities in a few nontraditional credit sectors that stand out to us as having a higher probability of generating excess returns in the months ahead.
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Quick Take
2022-04-30
The critically important national security implications of biotech
Deepening US policy risks in the biotechnology sector have garnered some well-deserved attention from many of my colleagues lately. Given biotechnology’s potential future importance to US policymakers in the context of the ongoing US-China “great-power” competition, I’d like to share my own thoughts on what’s driving the rising geopolitical risk and national security concerns.
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Quick Take
2022-04-30
Euro area: Challenging long-held assumptions
We believe 2022 will be the year when macroeconomic and political developments challenge two deep-rooted misperceptions about the euro area:
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Quick Take
2022-04-30
The latest market sell-off: Regime change in the making?
What a difference a few weeks can make in the equity market! The sharp, swift sell-off through the first month of this year is raising some difficult questions for investors, chiefly: Are we just witnessing a long-overdue short-term correction in the more speculative areas of the market, or perhaps something more fundamental (and enduring) that could portend a broader unwinding of equity risk?
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Quick Take
2022-03-31
Playing inflation defense with fixed income in 2022
For fixed income investors who are worried about the double threat of higher inflation and rising rates, there are strategies that may help insulate a bond portfolio. Fixed Income Investment Director Amar Reganti and Investment Specialist Jonathan Tan offer up some suggestions.
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Quick Take
2022-02-28
Ten essential climate questions for private companies
We explore how climate change impacts private companies and share the top questions for companies to be prepared to address as this issue grows.
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Quick Take
2022-06-30
Why COP26 was (probably) more constructive than headlines suggest
From better targets to methane to financial commitments, a climate investor shares his views on the lasting positive outcomes likely to emerge from the recent global conference on climate change.
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Quick Take
2022-07-31
The fish are biting: Exploiting Japan’s inefficient equity market
Our Japanese equity team has shown Japan to be one of the world’s most inefficient markets, making it a good “fishing pond” for alpha-seeking active managers who do their homework and apply a strong investment process.
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Quick Take
2021-12-31
Fed watch 2022: Year of the hawk?
With inflation on the rise and all eyes seemingly on the Fed these days, Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Jeremy Forster shares his takeaways from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)'s December 2021 meeting.
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Quick Take
2022-07-29
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China’s growing self-reliance could bolster its equity market
Our expert, Philip Brooks, finds reasons for optimism in China's equity market.
By
Philip Brooks, CFA