- Geopolitical Strategist
United States, Institutional
Change
highlight_off
Thank you for your registration
You will shortly receive an email with your unique link to our preference center.
The views expressed are those of the author at the time of writing. Other teams may hold different views and make different investment decisions. The value of your investment may become worth more or less than at the time of original investment. While any third-party data used is considered reliable, its accuracy is not guaranteed. For professional, institutional, or accredited investors only.
The first Trump administration isn’t a perfect analogy for assessing what kind of US foreign policy we should expect over the next four years. Unlike the first time around, we now have the largest war in Europe in decades, the biggest conflict in the Middle East in decades, increasing military tensions in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea, as well as a rapidly fracturing global order that pits China/Russia/Iran/North Korea against the US/NATO/Japan/South Korea/Australia blocs. In addition, we are seeing the increasingly negative national security implications of climate change. These shifts in the geopolitical backdrop are structural, long term, and will likely continue regardless of this election result.
Differences in approach to national security
US national security policies will matter to this backdrop, and I expect the following in a second Trump administration:
- A more “transactional” and more “muscular” approach to US foreign policy — i.e., more reliance on bilateral negotiations, with less emphasis on long-term strategic implications. This represents a big departure from the Biden administration’s more multilateral approach, and an accelerating focus on defense/national security across the board.
- More use of US economic power as “leverage” across the geopolitical landscape — i.e., significantly higher tariffs on China, but also on some allies across Europe and the Indo-Pacific, and a higher priority on US energy production and export.
- A wider set of potential outcomes in Ukraine including increasing US pressure on the Zelensky government to negotiate an end to the conflict, which is now approaching its 1,000th day and now includes direct military engagement between Ukrainian and North Korean soldiers.
- A more hawkish US foreign policy toward Iran, with fewer restrictions on Israeli military policy in the region.
- An ongoing focus on great-power competition and strategic decoupling, though with a more unilateral focus through additional executive orders and a heavier emphasis on tariffs. This is less of a departure from the current administration. The China issue remains largely bipartisan.
- Trump’s return to the White House opens the door to US-China negotiations across a number of key geopolitical issues, including Taiwan, so again, there is likely to be a wider set of potential outcomes for us to be considering over the next four years.
- Less emphasis on climate change through the national security lens, with potential changes coming to the Inflation Reduction Act and other federal climate policy priorities.
- Structurally, Trump will face fewer internal constraints than his first administration — particularly if the House also stays with the GOP — which widens the set of potential outcomes across the board.
Investment implications
All of this remains supportive of existing long-term national security investment themes, including legacy defense, defense innovation, and in particular, climate adaptation given that there will likely be less momentum toward decarbonization at the federal level over the next four years; this backdrop will also likely accelerate disruption/differentiation across regional, country, industry, company, and asset class levels — again, an ongoing positive for active management.
What I’m watching from here
- Where the House of Representatives ends up in terms of Republican/Democratic balance, and how this impacts US defense spending and other national security legislative priorities.
- Who Trump attracts to key national security positions in his cabinet. So far, most of the floated names have professional experience and will likely be confirmed by the US Senate.
- Where tariff levels end up, and when they would be implemented. This will be worked out during the transition, so we should have a better indication of implications in coming weeks.
- How US adversaries and allies now respond to this coming shift in US administrations, including Russia, China, and key US allies globally.
Expert
Related insights
Showing
of
Insights Posts
Article
5 min
Archived
info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
What markets are missing on critical minerals
Continue readingBy
event
5 min
Article
2026-11-30
Archived
info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Article
4 min
Archived
info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Five ways to find opportunity in a new world (dis)order
Continue readingBy
event
4 min
Article
2026-10-31
Archived
info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Article
4 min
Archived
info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Brave New World: “US vs them” world order emerges
Continue readingBy
event
4 min
Article
2026-10-31
Archived
info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Article
5 min
Archived
info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
AI and national security: What markets are missing
Continue readingBy
event
5 min
Article
2026-09-30
Archived
info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Article
3 min
Archived
info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Fiscal versus tariffs: what wins out for Europe?
Continue reading
event
3 min
Article
2026-04-30
Archived
info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Article
4 min
Archived
info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
The US equity rotation: Where have all the good vibes gone?
Continue reading
event
4 min
Article
2026-03-31
Archived
info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Article
8 min
Archived
info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Geopolitics in 2025: Risks, opportunities, and deepening uncertainties
Continue readingBy
event
8 min
Article
2026-02-28
Archived
info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
URL References
Related Insights
Stay up to date with the latest market insights and our point of view.
highlight_off
Thank you for your registration
You will shortly receive an email with your unique link to our preference center
Read next
Showing
of
Insights Posts
Article
5 min
Archived
info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
What markets are missing on critical minerals
Geopolitical Strategist Thomas Mucha highlights the importance of critical minerals in US-China relations, details the impact on global markets, and identifies the investment implications.
By
event
5 min
Article
2026-11-30
Archived
info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Article
4 min
Archived
info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Five ways to find opportunity in a new world (dis)order
Geopolitical Strategist Thomas Mucha analyzes the investment implications of five global themes that speak to the need for strategic adaptation in a turbulent world.
By
event
4 min
Article
2026-10-31
Archived
info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Article
4 min
Geopolitics
Active management
Artificial intelligence (AI)
Content CoE Program Global Program
Article
Archived
info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Brave New World: “US vs them” world order emerges
Geopolitical Strategist Thomas Mucha profiles the shifts signaling increased global policy friction and national security related opportunities for investors.
By
event
4 min
Article
2026-10-31
Archived
info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Article
5 min
Artificial intelligence (AI)
Macro and market
Geopolitics
Content CoE Program Global Program
Article
Archived
info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
AI and national security: What markets are missing
Geopolitical Strategist Thomas Mucha analyzes the role of AI in shifting national security dynamics and its influence on future investment strategies.
By
event
5 min
Article
2026-09-30
Archived
info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Article
3 min
Europe
Macro and market
Wellington on Washington and the World
Wealth Program
Fiscal policy
Geopolitics
Macro
Market disruptions
Article
Archived
info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Fiscal versus tariffs: what wins out for Europe?
Just as investors were starting to explore the potential for growth in Europe, Trump’s tariffs landed. To what extent is the case for Europe still intact?
event
3 min
Article
2026-04-30
Archived
info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Article
4 min
Macro and market
Geopolitics
Tactical allocation
Content CoE Program Global Program
iStrat
Multi-asset
Wellington on Washington and the World
Article
Archived
info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
The US equity rotation: Where have all the good vibes gone?
After riding into 2025 on a wave of post-election euphoria, the US stock market has struggled to find its footing so far this year. Global Investment and Multi-Asset Strategist Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson looks at what’s changed in the markets and what it might mean for investors.
event
4 min
Article
2026-03-31
Archived
info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Article
8 min
Geopolitics
Climate
Wellington on Washington and the World
Content CoE Program Global Program
Elections
Article
Archived
info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Geopolitics in 2025: Risks, opportunities, and deepening uncertainties
Geopolitical Strategist Thomas Mucha outlines his structural, policy, and geopolitical outlook for the year.
By
event
8 min
Article
2026-02-28
Archived
info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Article
5 min
EM equity
Geopolitics
Thematic exposure
Wealth Program
Fundamental equity
Emerging Market Development
Small-cap
Equity
Emerging markets
Content CoE Program Global Program
iStrat
Article
Archived
info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Emerging markets under Trump 2.0: expect the unexpected
Portfolio Manager Dáire Dunne and Investment Director Irmak Surenkok discuss what Trump 2.0 entails for emerging markets investors and what useful lessons they can learn from his first term.
event
5 min
Article
2026-01-31
Archived
info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Article
6 min
Elections
Fiscal policy
Geopolitics
Content CoE Program Global Program
Opportunistic Fixed Income
Fixed income
Americas
China
EMEA
Macro
Yielding insights
Article
Archived
info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
What an “America first” foreign policy may mean for markets
Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Brij Khurana explores the potential market impacts of President Trump's "America first" foreign policy. From regional hegemony to global economic dominance to tariffs applied for strategic geopolitical gain, discover how these shifts could affect investors.
By
event
6 min
Article
2026-01-31
Archived
info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Article
15 min
Geopolitics
Volatility
Multi-asset
Macro and market
Top of Mind
Article
iStrat
Tactical allocation
DB Public Program
Archived
info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
A guide to investing in the age of anxiety
There's a long list of issues worrying asset owners, from geopolitical risk to high valuations. To help, Head of Multi-Asset Strategy Adam Berger offers coping tips for an uncomfortable investment backdrop and a world where investing rules of thumb may be broken.
event
15 min
Article
2025-12-01
Archived
info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Podcast
21 min
Archived
info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Trump 2.0: US election market impacts
In the wake of the US election, macro strategists Juhi Dhawan and Michael Medeiros join host Thomas Mucha to discuss the market, policy, and geopolitical implications of Trump 2.0.
event
21 min
Podcast
2025-11-30
Archived
info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
URL References
Related Insights
contact us
legal Information
© Copyright 2025 Wellington Management Company LLP. All rights reserved. WELLINGTON MANAGEMENT ® is a registered service mark of Wellington Group Holdings LLP. For institutional or professional investors only.
Enjoying this content?
Get similar insights delivered straight to your inbox. Simply choose what you’re interested in and we’ll bring you our best research and market perspectives.
highlight_off
Thank you for joining our email preference center.
You’ll soon receive an email with a link to access and update your preferences.