- Equity Portfolio Manager
United States, Institutional
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In this edition of “Rapid Fire Questions,” equity portfolio manager Tim Manning offers his views on rates, fiscal policy, tariffs, and AI — and shares why he remains constructive on the US equity market.
Question: What are your views on the US policy outlook?
The market has sniffed out a Fed rate cut and expectations have moved in advance of that event, but it hasn’t factored in that fiscal stimulus that kicks in in early 2026, making for a potentially very strong set up for the year. While the market may question the Fed's mandate, we see business as usual with macro data supportive of rate cuts, and the Fed maintaining its work as a data driven entity.
Question: Have we passed the worst of tariff fears?
The worst part is the uncertainty, which rocked markets in the first half of this year. With more clarity, we are past that now. While there may be implementation risk further in the next quarter or two, we believe most companies now have a plan for managing in this new reality. As visibility strengthens, we are positioned for US growth likely accelerating from here, given strong fiscal support from recently passed legislation.
Question: What is your take on the AI landscape?
The conversation has been driven by AI in the past couple of years, and for good reason. Now, we see growth beyond that theme today. We are in the heart of the build out globally, and just beginning to see the green shoots from broader AI adoption across the economy and industries. We anticipate leadership to continue from the AI leaders, but also see a broader set of companies experiencing accelerating growth as the promise of AI becomes a reality.
Question: Where are you finding opportunities in the US right now?
We believe we are entering the "And" phase of this cycle, with continued strength from AI leaders and a reacceleration in earnings and free cash flow across most sectors of the US economy, with beneficiaries in the Consumer Discretionary, Financial, Healthcare and Industrials sectors.
Question: Can you share any insights from the Global Cycle Index?
Our overall positive view in the US is supported by a return to a strengthening in our Global Cycle Index, which recently saw a turn upwards after moving sideways since the spring. We are maintaining our equal weights across our four fundamental factors of Growth, Quality, Total Capital Return and Valuation. With growth poised to accelerate, we are finding multiple opportunities across many sectors with the strongest outlooks found amongst companies that have the highest free cash flow margins.
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