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Private credit outlook for 2026: 5 key trends
Our private credit experts discuss five themes driving the asset class’s 2026 outlook, including public/private convergence, changing credit profiles, the growth of retail, and much more.
The rising tide of AI: How it could lift US productivity, growth, and profits
From an economic and market standpoint, a lot is riding on the future of artificial intelligence. Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan sees plenty of reasons for excitement but also a need for patience along the way.
Rapid Fire Questions with Ross Dilkes
In this edition of “Rapid Fire Questions,” fixed income portfolio manager Ross Dilkes shares his views on the Asia credit market—covering the macro outlook, China’s momentum, the most compelling opportunities across the region, and key risks shaping the next 12 months.
What’s the Fed got to do with it? The impact of rate cuts on CLO equity
Our CLO experts discuss the implications of Fed rate cuts on CLO equity, emphasizing its potential to maintain income amidst rate sensitivity challenges in other credit assets.
Commercial real estate debt: Transitional assets deep dive
Our private commercial real estate debt experts explore transitional CRE assets, highlighting their key characteristics, how they differ from other parts of the CRE debt universe, their potential roles in a portfolio, and much more.
Investment-grade private credit market deep dive
Emeka Onukwugha and Elisabeth Perenick explore the evolving investment-grade private credit market, highlighting its key characteristics, liquidity profile, roles in a portfolio, and much more.
Chart in Focus: Fed rate cuts resume — What’s next for investors?
In this edition of Chart in Focus, we explore the Fed’s return to rate cuts after a strategic pause. We examine how this move, alongside diverging central banks paths, could shape the outlook for risk assets.
The Fed architecture under scrutiny: What are the investment implications?
Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan looks at how changes in the Federal Reserve's personnel and decision making could impact policy, the US dollar, and financial markets.
FOMC: Cushioning the US labor market
Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Jeremy Forster analyzes the Fed's decision to cut interest rates at the September FOMC meeting.
Chart in Focus: Where are rates headed?
In this edition of Chart in Focus, we take a look at where rates have been headed and potential implications moving forward.
Twilight zone: how to interpret today’s uncertain macro picture
Macro Strategist John Butler and Investment Director Marco Giordano explore how to interpret today’s uncertain macroeconomic picture and its key implications.
CCC junk bonds appear undervalued and overlooked
Fixed Income Portfolio manager and Credit Analyst Blake Huynh and Investment Director Nick Leichtman highlight CCC bonds' potential amid tight spreads and market dynamics.
Private credit roundtable: The role of covenants
Our private credit team explores the evolving role of covenants in today’s private credit landscape, highlighting their continued importance despite differing availability in specific markets.
Commercial real estate debt market update
Our private credit team discusses the CRE debt market's growth, evolving dynamics, and opportunities for private lenders amid higher rates and reset valuations.
Stagflation watch: Thoughts on tariffs, inflation, and Fed policy
US Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan considers signs the US economy may be moving toward a toxic mix of slowing growth and rising inflation, creating challenges for the Fed and investors.
One Big Beautiful Bill: Why it’s “buy now, pay later” for markets
Multi-Asset Strategist Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson weighs the near-term benefits of the recently enacted US tax and spending bill against the longer-term costs, and suggests several investment implications.
CLOs and the growth of private credit
Alyssa Irving profiles private credit's influence on CLOs, focusing on its ability to refinance lower-quality issuers and the potential benefits for the broadly syndicated market.
The power of positive and pragmatic thinking
While markets have a lot to worry about, from government policy to geopolitics, Global Investment and Multi-Asset Strategist Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson looks at the world from another angle: What could go right? She offers five reasons for positive thinking and considers the investment implications.
CLO investing and active ETFs
Alyssa Irving explores the evolving role of active ETFs in the AAA CLO market, highlighting their significant growth, the impact of increased trading activity, and the potential opportunities they create.
FOMC: Patiently waiting to ease
Jeremy Forster discusses the Fed's steady policy rates, inflation forecasts, and potential interest rate cuts amidst economic uncertainties.
Deep dive on CLO equity investing
Alyssa Irving, Fixed Income Portfolio Manager, discusses the CLO equity asset class, highlighting its diversification potential, risk-return dynamics, and the crucial role of managers.
The yen smile: New economic era upends traditional safe-haven currency relationships
Portfolio Manager Sam Hogg discusses the US Dollar Smile Theory and the Japanese yen's safe-haven status in the context of global trade and monetary policy changes.
Private credit: Public/private convergence
Our private credit experts explore the convergence of public and private markets, highlighting key areas of opportunity in private credit 2.0.
Late-stage growth investing: Deployment, valuations, and exits
Matt Witheiler, head of late-stage growth, outlines the state of the late-stage private market, discussing deployments, valuations, and exits.
FOMC meeting: Misery loves company
Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Jeremy Forster explores the Fed's decision to hold rates, downgraded economic forecasts, and the implications of balance-sheet policy changes on inflation and market conditions.
CLO equity returns in a tight spread environment
Our CLO experts discuss CLO equity investing in today's tight spread environment, focusing on arbitrage, optionality, and income potential.
No more free lunch: Impact of higher interest rates on private equity
We explain what the direct and indirect rate exposure of buyouts, venture capital, growth equity, secondaries, and fund-of-funds mean for investors.
Private credit roundtable: Outlook in 2025
Our private credit experts explore the potential effects of Trump 2.0 policies — like tariffs and deregulation — on the asset class in 2025. In addition, they dive into the impact of higher-for-longer interest rates, the broadening of private credit markets, and much more.
The US immigration crackdown: Weighing the economic implications
As the details of new US immigration policies come into focus, Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan considers the risks they may pose for the labor market and the broader economy.
Fed in holding pattern
Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Jeremy Forster unpacks the US Federal Reserve's decision to pause its interest-rate-cutting cycle.
Executive Summary 2025: Finding opportunity amid uncertainty
In this article, we summarize some of the key findings from our 2025 outlooks, from divergence-driven opportunities to the impacts of AI and beyond.
Fed delivers rate cut, but hawkish 2025 guidance sends yields up
Fixed Income Analyst Caroline Casavant examines the outcome of the December 18 Federal Open Market Committee meeting and the implications for rates, inflation, and real growth.
Going their separate ways: Capitalizing on bond divergence
Our fixed income experts discuss how to position portfolios for a world of uncertainty and divergence, exploring key themes and evolving bond opportunities for 2025.
Trump 2.0: Time to curb your enthusiasm?
How does an allocator navigate markets when so much about the policy landscape is unknown? Our Investment Strategy & Solutions Group offers their views on the new political realities in the US and their global implications, including for equities, bonds, and commodities.
Private credit outlook for 2025: 5 key trends
Our private credit experts, Emily Bannister and Sonali Wilson, highlight five critical trends for 2025: the convergence of public and private markets, AI's impact on private credit, the evolving role of banks in lending markets, the impact of higher interest rates, and the importance of financial covenants.
Trump 2.0: US election market impacts
In the wake of the US election, macro strategists Juhi Dhawan and Michael Medeiros join host Thomas Mucha to discuss the market, policy, and geopolitical implications of Trump 2.0.
What is “the economic cycle,” anyway?
See why the relationship between asset prices and the economic cycle is more complex than you might think, why a US recession is unlikely, and what a more dovish Fed could mean for the US and global markets.
Can central bank independence survive?
Can central bank independence survive? Macro Strategist John Butler discusses the challenges faced by central banks in an increasingly fraught political environment and how investors should adjust.
Chart in Focus: What does the rate cut mean for equities and bonds?
Are rate cuts positive? On the heels of the much-anticipated initial Fed cut, in this article we look to historic precedent for where the markets could go in the coming months.
Time to capitalise on the evolving role of bonds?
We outline why we think the new economic era is elevating the role of bonds as a source of attractive and stable income, downside protection and portfolio diversification.
Walking a mile in Fed Chair Powell’s shoes
A slow roll on rate cuts by the Fed could frustrate markets and lead to more volatility ahead of the September FOMC meeting. See our take on what to expect for the next few weeks.
Massive market sell-off: Justified or an overreaction?
What's behind the global market meltdown, and what should investors consider doing? Global Investment and Multi-Asset Strategist Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson shares her views.
Does the US election even matter? Thoughts on politics, Fed policy, and portfolios
What's next for interest rates and what impact will the US election have? Head of Multi-Asset Strategy Adam Berger and Macro Strategist Mike Medeiros share their outlook and discuss the asset allocation implications.
Chart in Focus: Four key areas of opportunities in bonds amid Fed uncertainty
We discuss four key areas of opportunities in fixed income amid Fed uncertainty in the second half of the year.
Disappearing unicorns: The importance of capital efficiency in a higher-for-longer rate environment
Members of our late-state growth equity team share their views on the impact of interest rates on venture capital activity — including the ability of companies to reach “unicorns” status.
All-time highs and CPIs: What comes next?
Global fundamentals have kept markets content so far this year, but will politics sour the mood? Members of our Investment Strategy & Solutions Group offer their views on the second half of 2024, including on equities, bonds, and commodities.
Capitalizing on rate shifts: Parsing opportunities in the second half
Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Campe Goodman and Fixed Income Strategist Amar Reganti discuss how to capitalize on potential rate shifts in the second half of the year
When the Fed sneezes, the ECB… cuts rates regardless?
Since the late 1990s, when the US cycle turned, the rest of the world generally followed, with a lag. However, the new economic era is likely to result in greater cyclical divergence between countries and the need for different central bank responses. How should investors think about the age of economic divergence?
June FOMC meeting: May disinflation is welcome, but is not enough for a rate cut
Fixed Income Analyst Caroline Casavant discusses what June's FOMC meeting tells us about the US Federal Reserve’s latest thinking on interest-rate cuts.
Governments have been slow to reduce their fiscal deficits — it could cost them
Our expert explores the investment implications of continued excessive deficit spending by G7 countries.
Thriving or surviving? The state of the US consumer and the economic implications
Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan examines the condition of the all-important consumer, including the outlook for spending, the effects of inflation and prevailing interest rates, and the consequences for the overall economy.
Structuring core fixed income: A constructive view on market and macro conditions
Head of Multi-Asset Strategy Adam Berger and Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Connor Fitzgerald discuss the interest-rate environment and the fundamental picture in investment-grade credit and high yield.
With the Fed on hold, is the case for bonds kaput?
Amid worries about sticky inflation, the market has scaled back its expectations for interest rate cuts this year. But even if rate cuts are on hold a while longer, members of our Multi-Asset Team still think investors should consider a move from cash to bonds.
Time to derisk? Funded status up, but potential volatility ahead
LDI Team Chair Amy Trainor explains why US corporate DB plans may have a rare and limited opportunity to derisk and offers suggested action steps.
Exploring active opportunities amid continued regime change
Head of Multi-Asset Strategy, APAC, Nick Samouilhan outlines why today's environment of dispersion, divergence and disruption offers potentially compelling opportunities for active investors.
Powell back to waiting on inflation data
Our expert's key takeaways from the May FOMC meeting.
The Fed’s lessons learned from its COVID response
Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Brij Khurana breaks down the central bank's policy decisions during the pandemic and explains how they continue to affect financial markets.
The immigration surge: Political challenge, economic blessing?
Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan considers the impact of rising immigration, a top issue in this year's US elections, on growth, interest rates, and the labor market.
Four questions for investors after Japan’s historic hike
With the Bank of Japan having finally moved out of negative rates, Macro Strategist John Butler identifies the four key questions he believes investors should focus on.
Four questions for investors after Japan’s historic hike
With the Bank of Japan having finally moved out of negative rates, Macro Strategist John Butler identifies the four key questions he believes investors should focus on.
Do fundamentals support a risk-on tilt?
Surprisingly strong economic growth, declining inflation, easy financial conditions — can it get any better for markets? Members of our Investment Strategy & Solutions Group offer their outlook, including their latest views on equities, bonds, and commodities.
FOMC: Stable policy amid market volatility
The Fed is holding steady amid market turmoil. See our quick notes on the FOMC's March policy statement, forecasts, and the Fed chair's press conference.
Agency MBS key questions for 2024
Is there room for mortgage spreads to tighten further? Brian Conroy and Joseph Marvan examine this and seven other questions that will be significant for the agency MBS market in 2024.
Is the US economy really that different since COVID?
US economists have been touting the resilience of the post-COVID economic rebound. Brij Khurana dissects several key economic indicators to see what's really changed since 2019.
Bizarro World: Could 2024 be the opposite of 2023?
Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Brij Khurana details the dynamics that may upend investor expectations of a repeat of 2023 this year.
Will a “Goldilocks” economy be just right for equity markets?
We provide an outlook on the ongoing shift to new investment regime, and the market segments that we expect will most heavily influence global equity performance in the coming year.
Rates: Tracking the trade-off between inflation and growth
In their 2024 rates outlook, Investment Directors Amar Reganti and Marco Giordano investigate the treacherous trade-off faced by central banks and what it means for bond investors.
Fed’s projections yielded mixed results this year — what’s in store for 2024?
Our Fed watcher opines on 2023 policy and looks ahead to 2024.
Sector rotation opportunities for nimble credit investors
Following a credit market rally, Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Rob Burn still sees value in higher-yielding sectors but believes investors should stay nimble.
What’s driving convertibles in 2023?
Following a challenging 2022, Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Mike Barry and Investment Director Raina Dunkelberger highlight three tailwinds that may help turn the tide for convertibles.
February Fed meeting: Chair Powell strikes a more optimistic tone
The Fed just might still be able to engineer the hoped-for "soft landing" but it's not going to be easy, says Fixed Income Analyst Caroline Casavant.
CLOs: Poised to outperform in 2023?
Collateralized loan obligations (CLOs) have been sparking investor interest lately — and with good reason, say Investment Director Andrew Bayerl and Investment Specialist Celene Klimas.
Can US bank loans “carry” investors through 2023?
Fixed Income Portfolios managers Jeffrey Heuer, CFA and David Marshak and Investment Director Nick Leichtman describe what they see as the most prudent approach to the bank loans asset class in 2023 and why.
Could Japan face a UK-style pension crisis?
Investment Director Masahiko Loo explores the risks of Japan facing a UK-style pension crisis and identifies fundamental reasons that make Japanese pension funds inherently less vulnerable.
Take credit: Our five best credit market ideas for 2023
Fixed Income Strategist Amar Reganti highlights credit market opportunities that he expects to arise over the course of 2023, against a backdrop of slowing growth.
High yield: Opportunity to pivot in 2023?
Our high-yield bond portfolio managers have a guardedly optimistic outlook on the market and believe security selection will be key to benchmark-relative outperformance in 2023.
The Fed’s unenviable task for 2023
Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Jeremy Forster offers his forward-looking take on the Fed's comments and latest rate hike coming out of its December meeting.
Hidden in plain sight: Overlooked opportunities in investment-grade credit
Fixed Income Strategist Amar Reganti and Investment Specialist Geoff Austein-Miller highlight some relatively simple, straightforward ways to implement a positive view on high-quality corporate credit.
Why Europe could surprise in 2023
Eoin O’Callaghan and John Butler discuss the contrasting prospects of the Euro Area and the UK and why 2023 could bring positive surprises in the region.
2023: The year of disinflation for the US economy
In the coming year, US Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan expects to see inflation begin to decline, the economy adjust to higher interest rates, and labor markets feel the pain of restrictive Fed policy.
Emerging markets debt outlook: A glass half full or half empty?
Against a still-challenging global backdrop for emerging markets, Macro Strategist Gillian Edgeworth highlights opportunities created by extreme credit spread dispersion across individual countries.
Three tailwinds that could power CLO equity in 2023 and beyond
Three members of our fixed income team argue that the headwinds currently facing CLO equity should give way to improved returns in 2023 and beyond.
November FOMC meeting: How slow can the Fed go?
Investment Specialist Caroline Casavant shares her takeaways from the November FOMC meeting, including thoughts on the likely pace of further Fed interest-rate hikes.
Bank of Japan policy shift: Waiting for the other shoe to drop?
Client Portfolio Manager Jitu Naidu and Investment Director Masahiko Loo share their take on the consensus view that Japan has reached several key inflection points.
Can agency MBS bounce back from dismal performance?
Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Brian Conroy and two colleagues weigh in on the mortgage-backed securities (MBS) market in the wake of a very challenging month.
Equity market volatility is perking up: Why now?
The recent uptick in equity volatility may be about looming macro and systemic risks in today's uncertain environment. Director of Global Derivatives Gordy Lawrence explains.
Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Brij Khurana offers his latest thoughts on Fed policy following the central bank's recent Jackson Hole meeting.
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The real issue on rate cuts? Keep your eyes on the dot (plot)
Keep your eyes on the Fed's 2025 dot plot. The real story is where policy rates are headed, not just the next rate cut.
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