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Infographic
2 min
Chart in Focus: Is the Fed rate cut positive for risk?
In this edition of Chart in Focus, we examine how the Fed’s long-awaited interest rate cut may influence risk assets.
2 min
Infographic
2026-10-30
Article
6 min
The Fed architecture under scrutiny: What are the investment implications?
Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan looks at how changes in the Federal Reserve's personnel and decision making could impact policy, the US dollar, and financial markets.
6 min
Article
2026-09-30
Article
5 min
FOMC: Cushioning the US labor market
Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Jeremy Forster analyzes the Fed's decision to cut interest rates at the September FOMC meeting.
5 min
Article
2026-10-31
Article
4 min
Twilight zone: how to interpret today’s uncertain macro picture
Macro Strategist John Butler and Investment Director Marco Giordano explore how to interpret today’s uncertain macroeconomic picture and its key implications.
4 min
Article
2026-09-30
Article
7 min
Rethinking the Fed’s dual mandate
Is it time for a fresh perspective on the dual mandate? Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Brij Khurana explores the potential benefits of reorienting monetary policy toward maximizing productivity.
By
7 min
Article
2026-08-31
Article
5 min
Stagflation watch: Thoughts on tariffs, inflation, and Fed policy
US Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan considers signs the US economy may be moving toward a toxic mix of slowing growth and rising inflation, creating challenges for the Fed and investors.
5 min
Article
2026-08-31
Article
13 min
Severance: The split between the economy and the markets
While markets have bounced back since Liberation Day, policy changes and macro data bear watching. Heading into the second half of 2025, we're focused on relative opportunities across asset classes created by disconnects and divides between markets and economies.
13 min
Article
2026-06-30
Article
12 min
Oh baby, baby, it’s a wild world
Just one quarter into the year, many policy and economic assumptions have been turned on their head. What does it all mean for equity, bond, and commodity markets around the world? Members of our Investment Strategy & Solutions Group offer their outlook.
12 min
Article
2026-03-31
Article
3 min
Fed delivers rate cut, but hawkish 2025 guidance sends yields up
Fixed Income Analyst Caroline Casavant examines the outcome of the December 18 Federal Open Market Committee meeting and the implications for rates, inflation, and real growth.
3 min
Article
2025-06-30
Article
7 min
Going their separate ways: Capitalizing on bond divergence
Our fixed income experts discuss how to position portfolios for a world of uncertainty and divergence, exploring key themes and evolving bond opportunities for 2025.
7 min
Article
2025-12-31
Article
6 min
The year of uncertainty: 5 macro themes to watch in 2025
Macro Strategists John Butler and Eoin O’Callaghan outline five macro themes for investors to watch in 2025 in a year they see defined by exceptional uncertainty and an extraordinary macroeconomic backdrop.
6 min
Article
2025-11-30
Article
4 min
Fed stays its course while acknowledging brewing winds of change
Our expert examines the underlying data which drove the Fed to stay its rate-cutting course.
4 min
Article
2025-11-30
Article
6 min
What do declining European earnings mean for ECB policy?
European companies have been unexpectedly resilient over the last couple of years. However, the outlook for European earnings could be more challenging than headline numbers suggest. What could this mean for investors?
6 min
Article
2025-11-30
Article
5 min
What is “the economic cycle,” anyway?
See why the relationship between asset prices and the economic cycle is more complex than you might think, why a US recession is unlikely, and what a more dovish Fed could mean for the US and global markets.
By
5 min
Article
2025-10-31
Article
5 min
Can central bank independence survive?
Can central bank independence survive? Macro Strategist John Butler discusses the challenges faced by central banks in an increasingly fraught political environment and how investors should adjust.
By
5 min
Article
2025-09-30
Article
12 min
Sahm rules are meant to be broken
Fed easing is finally here and fundamentals remain favorable. But what about that election? Members of our Investment Strategy & Solutions Group offer their outlook, including their latest views on equities, bonds, and commodities.
12 min
Article
2025-10-31
Article
3 min
Rate relief: Fed cuts half point, but says “economy is strong”
Our expert explains the Fed's bold rate cut and some key takeaways for investors.
3 min
Article
2025-09-30
Article
2 min
Time to capitalise on the evolving role of bonds?
We outline why we think the new economic era is elevating the role of bonds as a source of attractive and stable income, downside protection and portfolio diversification.
2 min
Article
2025-09-30
Article
4 min
Walking a mile in Fed Chair Powell’s shoes
A slow roll on rate cuts by the Fed could frustrate markets and lead to more volatility ahead of the September FOMC meeting. See our take on what to expect for the next few weeks.
By
4 min
Article
2025-08-31
Article
7 min
When the Fed sneezes, the ECB… cuts rates regardless?
Since the late 1990s, when the US cycle turned, the rest of the world generally followed, with a lag. However, the new economic era is likely to result in greater cyclical divergence between countries and the need for different central bank responses. How should investors think about the age of economic divergence?
7 min
Article
2025-03-21
Article
3 min
June FOMC meeting: May disinflation is welcome, but is not enough for a rate cut
Fixed Income Analyst Caroline Casavant discusses what June's FOMC meeting tells us about the US Federal Reserve’s latest thinking on interest-rate cuts.
3 min
Article
2025-06-30
Article
5 min
The revenge of the monetarists
Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Brij Khurana makes the case for a monetarist explanation for moderating inflation.
By
5 min
Article
2025-06-30
Article
4 min
Governments have been slow to reduce their fiscal deficits — it could cost them
Our expert explores the investment implications of continued excessive deficit spending by G7 countries.
4 min
Article
2025-06-30
Article
2 min
Powell back to waiting on inflation data
Our expert's key takeaways from the May FOMC meeting.
2 min
Article
2025-05-31
Article
6 min
The Fed’s lessons learned from its COVID response
Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Brij Khurana breaks down the central bank's policy decisions during the pandemic and explains how they continue to affect financial markets.
By
6 min
Article
2025-04-30
Article
4 min
Japan equity: Reason to believe
Our expert argues that corporate governance reform and the Japanese economy's escape from persistent deflation have laid the groundwork for a sustainable equity rally.
4 min
Article
2025-04-30
Quick Take
FOMC: Stable policy amid market volatility
The Fed is holding steady amid market turmoil. See our quick notes on the FOMC's March policy statement, forecasts, and the Fed chair's press conference.
Quick Take
2025-03-31
Article
Is the US economy really that different since COVID?
US economists have been touting the resilience of the post-COVID economic rebound. Brij Khurana dissects several key economic indicators to see what's really changed since 2019.
By
Article
2025-03-31
Article
5 min
Income: the hard worker in your portfolio deserves more credit
Income from cash is good but income from bonds is better. In a less certain macro environment, Alex King, Supriya Menon and John Mullins think the case for income only gets stronger. How can investors make the most of opportunities?
5 min
Article
2025-03-31
Quick Take
The shifting liquidity landscape: What’s at stake?
The beginning of the end could be in sight for the Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening (QT) program. US Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan considers the Fed's next steps and what they could mean for banks, liquidity, and markets broadly.
Quick Take
2025-01-31
Quick Take
Bizarro World: Could 2024 be the opposite of 2023?
Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Brij Khurana details the dynamics that may upend investor expectations of a repeat of 2023 this year.
By
Quick Take
2025-01-17
Article
Fork in the road: Slowdown or reacceleration ahead?
Markets seem to expect a much smoother ride in 2024, but are they too optimistic? Members of our Investment Strategy & Solutions Group offer their macro and market outlook, including their latest views on equities, bonds, and commodities.
Article
2026-01-31
Quick Take
Fed’s projections yielded mixed results this year — what’s in store for 2024?
Our Fed watcher opines on 2023 policy and looks ahead to 2024.
Quick Take
2024-12-14
Quick Take
Peak inflation, back to goldilocks? Not so fast
Portfolio Manager Nicholas Petrucelli explains why the market could be underestimating just how complex and volatile the global economic cycle is and details the implications for inflation.
Quick Take
2024-02-29
Quick Take
February Fed meeting: Chair Powell strikes a more optimistic tone
The Fed just might still be able to engineer the hoped-for "soft landing" but it's not going to be easy, says Fixed Income Analyst Caroline Casavant.
Quick Take
2023-09-30
Quick Take
CLOs: Poised to outperform in 2023?
Collateralized loan obligations (CLOs) have been sparking investor interest lately — and with good reason, say Investment Director Andrew Bayerl and Investment Specialist Celene Klimas.
Quick Take
2024-01-31
Quick Take
Could Japan face a UK-style pension crisis?
Investment Director Masahiko Loo explores the risks of Japan facing a UK-style pension crisis and identifies fundamental reasons that make Japanese pension funds inherently less vulnerable.
By
Quick Take
2024-01-31
Quick Take
Take credit: Our five best credit market ideas for 2023
Fixed Income Strategist Amar Reganti highlights credit market opportunities that he expects to arise over the course of 2023, against a backdrop of slowing growth.
Quick Take
2024-01-31
Article
Navigating the new global economy in 2023
This executive summary distills the points of view of several of our 2023 Outlook authors. Discover the risks and opportunities they see as we enter a new economic and market regime.
Article
2023-12-31
Quick Take
High yield: Opportunity to pivot in 2023?
Our high-yield bond portfolio managers have a guardedly optimistic outlook on the market and believe security selection will be key to benchmark-relative outperformance in 2023.
Quick Take
2024-01-31
Quick Take
Currency outlook: Nearing the end of USD exceptionalism?
Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Martin Harvey and Investment Communications Manager Jitu Naidu consider the present state of and outlook for the US dollar.
Quick Take
2023-12-31
Quick Take
The Fed’s unenviable task for 2023
Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Jeremy Forster offers his forward-looking take on the Fed's comments and latest rate hike coming out of its December meeting.
Quick Take
2023-12-31
Article
Why Europe could surprise in 2023
Eoin O’Callaghan and John Butler discuss the contrasting prospects of the Euro Area and the UK and why 2023 could bring positive surprises in the region.
Article
2023-12-31
Quick Take
Hidden in plain sight: Overlooked opportunities in investment-grade credit
Fixed Income Strategist Amar Reganti and Investment Specialist Geoff Austein-Miller highlight some relatively simple, straightforward ways to implement a positive view on high-quality corporate credit.
Quick Take
2023-12-31
Article
2023: The year of disinflation for the US economy
In the coming year, US Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan expects to see inflation begin to decline, the economy adjust to higher interest rates, and labor markets feel the pain of restrictive Fed policy.
Article
2023-12-31
Article
EM equity in 2023: Will the longest bear market in history continue?
We explore three key considerations for EM investors in today’s challenging environment and highlight potential winners and losers in 2023.
Article
2023-12-31
Article
Emerging markets debt outlook: A glass half full or half empty?
Against a still-challenging global backdrop for emerging markets, Macro Strategist Gillian Edgeworth highlights opportunities created by extreme credit spread dispersion across individual countries.
Article
2023-12-31
Article
High-yield bonds in 2023: Fortune favours the patient
Amid ongoing dislocation in the high-yield market, Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Konstantin Leidman sees opportunities for investors to take advantage of potentially attractive valuations.
Article
2023-12-31
Quick Take
November FOMC meeting: How slow can the Fed go?
Investment Specialist Caroline Casavant shares her takeaways from the November FOMC meeting, including thoughts on the likely pace of further Fed interest-rate hikes.
Quick Take
2023-01-31
Quick Take
Bank of Japan policy shift: Waiting for the other shoe to drop?
Client Portfolio Manager Jitu Naidu and Investment Director Masahiko Loo share their take on the consensus view that Japan has reached several key inflection points.
Quick Take
2023-01-31
Quick Take
Can agency MBS bounce back from dismal performance?
Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Brian Conroy and two colleagues weigh in on the mortgage-backed securities (MBS) market in the wake of a very challenging month.
Quick Take
2023-01-31
Quick Take
Equity market volatility is perking up: Why now?
The recent uptick in equity volatility may be about looming macro and systemic risks in today's uncertain environment. Director of Global Derivatives Gordy Lawrence explains.
Quick Take
2023-10-31
Article
Macro Strategist John Butler provides his latest take on what's happening in the UK and its broader global implications.
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Article
2022-12-31
Quick Take
US inflation could prove "stickier" than many observers think. How might that influence Fed policy into 2023? Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Jeremy Forster opines.
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Quick Take
2022-12-31
Quick Take
Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Brij Khurana offers his latest thoughts on Fed policy following the central bank's recent Jackson Hole meeting.
By
Quick Take
2023-09-30
Quick Take
With 2022's structural inflation story still very much intact, now may be a particularly opportune time for investors to add real-asset and inflation-sensitive exposures to their portfolios.
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Quick Take
2022-11-30
Quick Take
With the shift in central bank policy, heightened volatility and dispersion may yield a promising environment for exploiting credit market inefficiencies.
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Quick Take
2022-11-30
Article
We explore the changing macro environment, highlighting the investment implications of the end of quantitative easing programs, the state of the Chinese cycle, and an evolving outlook on Europe.
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Article
2023-08-31
Quick Take
Client Portfolio Manager Jitu Naidu and Fixed Income Strategist Amar Reganti offer portfolio positioning ideas for the potential recession scenario that may lie ahead.
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Quick Take
2022-11-30
Quick Take
Skilled active management has potential to shine in times of increased dispersion across fixed income sectors and regions. Now may be one of those times.
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Quick Take
2022-12-31
Article
Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Michael Henry sees positive trends across ELD fundamentals, valuations, and technicals that could be tailwinds for these markets going forward.
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Article
2023-08-31
Quick Take
Client Portfolio Manager Jitu Naidu shares his latest take on the looming risk of a global economic recession and related issues.
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By
Quick Take
2022-11-30
Quick Take
Global Investment Strategist Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson believes higher-quality, longer-duration bonds may prove resilient even if the Fed keeps raising short-term rates into 2023.
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Quick Take
2022-10-31
Article
Eoin O'Callaghan and Marco Giordano explore the ECB’s likely next steps and the potential future path of inflation and growth in the euro area.
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Article
2023-07-05
Quick Take
After another rate hike, the Fed must balance moderating growth with mounting inflation. Caroline Casavant opines on how the central bank might navigate this dilemma.
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Quick Take
2022-10-31
Article
Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan shares her inflation outlook, including the prospects for supply-chain normalization, and her views on the market implications.
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Article
2023-07-31
Quick Take
The significant flattening of the US Treasury yield curve in recent months has some prognosticators calling for an impending US recession. Not so fast, says Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Rob Burn.
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Quick Take
2022-07-31
Article
We offer perspectives on growth and value equities and explore ideas for shoring up your fixed income flank amid the evolving economic and market environment.
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Article
2023-07-31
Quick Take
Portfolio Manager Brian Garvey highlights three large macro dislocations in today's environment that he believes the capital markets have yet to price in.
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Quick Take
2023-06-30
Quick Take
With rising inflation and interest rates dominating the financial headlines in recent weeks, I have been fielding a flurry of colleague and client questions about the likely future trajectory of US monetary policy. While I don’t claim to have all the answers, especially with so many “known unknowns” as of this writing, here are my latest thoughts.
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Quick Take
2022-08-30
Quick Take
Here are quick thoughts on some common questions I’ve been asked recently about Fed policy, yields, the US dollar, and financial markets.
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Quick Take
2022-08-31
Quick Take
Are we nearing the top of the 10-year treasury rate?
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Quick Take
2023-05-31
Quick Take
While rising rates often produce negative bond returns, combining the concept of empirical duration with a positive outlook on the credit cycle may bode well for some fixed income sectors' return prospects going forward. Investment Analyst Will Prenits and Investment Director Tobias Ripka explain.
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Quick Take
2022-07-31
Quick Take
The recent shift to a higher inflation regime, with resulting expectations of tighter monetary policy and rising interest rates, presents a material challenge for European fixed income investors. Against this backdrop, Investment Analyst Will Prentis and Investment Director Tobias Ripka believe investment flexibility is key.
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Quick Take
2022-07-31
Quick Take
Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Michael Barry and Investment Specialist Raina Dunkelberger believe global convertible bonds are likely to outperform other fixed income sectors over an investment time horizon of approximately two to three years. Learn why.
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Quick Take
2022-07-31
Quick Take
In the face of ongoing geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty, including the prospect of steadily rising interest rates, our floating-rate bank loan team maintains a bullish outlook for the sector. Emboldened by a strong US economy and mounting inflationary pressures, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) enacted its first 25 basis-point (bp) increase in interest rates since 2018. Additionally, Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s recent rhetoric has become more hawkish, including suggesting the possibility of a 50 bp rate hike in the coming months. The market is now pricing in the fed funds rate to rise to around 2.5% by the end of 2022 (from its current target of 25-50 bps).
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Quick Take
2022-07-31
Quick Take
Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Mahmoud El-Shaer explores why 2022 may be a momentous year for global credit and sets out a framework to think through potential investment implications. 2022 promises to be another challenging year for central banks as they attempt to normalise policies in the face of surging inflation, while navigating the growing fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Since 2009, there has essentially been one trade in capital markets: riding a huge wave of central bank liquidity in support of the financial system and the economy, with the G4 central banks alone pumping approximately US$20 trillion into the system via quantitative easing (QE).
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Quick Take
2022-07-31
Article
As the tragedy in Ukraine unfolds, Macro Strategist John Butler assesses possible implications of the conflict for Europe and the euro area. He outlines four potential paths.
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Article
2023-03-31
Quick Take
One of the discussion topics du jour is how the credit and equity markets might react to the US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest-rate hikes that are widely anticipated in the coming months. As is often the case with me, I find it helpful here to refer to past hiking regimes and market performances as a sort of guidepost.
The proof’s in the pudding
To wit, I examined the historical returns of both US credit (for this purpose, proxied by corporate high-yield bonds) and US equities (represented by the S&P 500 Index) during the six months before the first rate increase of a Fed hiking cycle through the 12 months after said increase.
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Quick Take
2022-05-31
URL References
Related Insights
The real issue on rate cuts? Keep your eyes on the dot (plot)
Keep your eyes on the Fed's 2025 dot plot. The real story is where policy rates are headed, not just the next rate cut.
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