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The views expressed are those of the authors at the time of writing. Other teams may hold different views and make different investment decisions. The value of your investment may become worth more or less than at the time of original investment. While any third-party data used is considered reliable, its accuracy is not guaranteed. For professional, institutional, or accredited investors only.
Geopolitical turmoil and global policy shifts have been two of the most defining macroeconomic characteristics of 2022. Structural and interlocking global challenges represent a significant departure from previous, more benign geopolitical and macro environments. We explore themes that prudent investors may do well to watch in the new year and beyond and outline how these changes could offer opportunities for discerning investors.
To determine the global investment risks and opportunities that lie ahead, we will be keeping an eye on several interconnected macroeconomic themes, including:
We believe that the shifting geopolitical and policy environment will be disruptive for a long time. Against this backdrop, companies are likely to become more differentiated from one another, which could present compelling investment opportunities. This environment also lends itself to thematic strengths across regional, country, industry, company, asset, and asset-class lines, particularly for active managers that are well equipped to identify the could-be thematic winners.
The bottom line is that we believe there are both risks and opportunities associated with global geopolitical and policy changes. For actively managed investment strategies, some of these shifts could offer marked structural advantages for years to come.
The intersection of geopolitics and deglobalization
The geopolitical landscape is likely to remain complex and unpredictable throughout 2024. What are the key risks to watch out for and what are the implications for investors?
How geopolitics and the energy transition may reshape global trade
We explore the potential near- and longer-term market effects of deteriorating US/China relations, coupled with the shift toward a low-carbon economy.
Global Economic Outlook
Our macro strategists continue to expect that the interlinkages between countries, central bank policies, and market pricing will change, creating potentially attractive opportunities for active portfolio management and security selection.
The future of investment research
Head of Investment Research Mary Pryshlak joins host Thomas Mucha to discuss the evolution of research in the asset management industry amid shifting market, technological, and geopolitical environments.
What if US wealth inequality reverses?
Our experts examine the role of wealth inequality in the US economy and the potential investment implications of a reversal in that dynamic.
Why the change of direction in Germany warrants close attention
Macro Strategist Nicolas Wylenzek assesses the shifts underway in Germany and Europe more broadly, including the recent surge in the far right's popularity and the challenges associated with the energy transition.
Reasons for optimism about Indian equities
Our experts explain why, despite criticisms that Indian equities trade at higher valuations today than they have historically, they may have the potential to help drive total returns over time.
Generative AI: Separating hype from opportunity
Two of Wellington's tech experts join host Thomas Mucha to discuss the rapidly evolving AI landscape and separate hype from reality, highlighting everything from the industries most likely to be impacted to AI's geopolitical implications.
Seven observations on the latest US/China executive order
Geopolitical Strategist Thomas Mucha shares his analysis of the recent Biden administration executive order, which aims to restrict investment into certain sectors in China, and details the potential investment implications.
Investing in the age of great-power competition
As competition between great powers intensifies, a new global order is taking shape. Geopolitical Strategist Thomas Mucha explores the investment implications of a more fragmented and fractious world.
FX outlook: Is USD exceptionalism withering away with the Fed hiking cycle nearing an end?
Discover the status of the USD today, learn where the greenback may be headed going forward, and understand why.