Interest rates

event August 2025

5 min

Article

2026-08-31

Inflation Interest rates Wellington on Washington and the World Content CoE Program Global Program Multi-asset Fiscal policy Asset allocation Article

One Big Beautiful Bill: Why it’s “buy now, pay later” for markets

Multi-Asset Strategist Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson weighs the near-term benefits of the recently enacted US tax and spending bill against the longer-term costs, and suggests several investment implications.

By

event July 2025

4 min

Article

2026-07-31

Macro and market Private credit Private investing FRM Program Interest rates Privates Video

CLOs and the growth of private credit

Alyssa Irving profiles private credit's influence on CLOs, focusing on its ability to refinance lower-quality issuers and the potential benefits for the broadly syndicated market.

By

event July 2025

2 min

Video

2026-07-31

Asset allocation Private credit Private investing Content CoE Program Global Program Interest rates Privates Outlook Article

Private credit: Is the illiquidity premium still worth it?

Our private credit team explores the value of the asset class’s illiquidity premium in today’s uncertain markets.

By

Emily Bannister, CFA

Sonali Wilson

event June 2025

6 min

Article

2026-06-30

Macro and market Multi-asset Asset allocation Content CoE Program Global Program Fiscal policy Inflation Interest rates Article Infographic Investment Angles

The power of positive and pragmatic thinking

While markets have a lot to worry about, from government policy to geopolitics, Global Investment and Multi-Asset Strategist Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson looks at the world from another angle: What could go right? She offers five reasons for positive thinking and considers the investment implications.

By

event June 2025

4 min

Article

2026-06-30

Active management Private credit Private investing Private Investing Program Interest rates Video

CLO investing and active ETFs

Alyssa Irving explores the evolving role of active ETFs in the AAA CLO market, highlighting their significant growth, the impact of increased trading activity, and the potential opportunities they create.

By

event June 2025

1 min

Video

2026-06-30

Fixed income Inflation Interest rates Content CoE Program Global Program USA Article

FOMC: Patiently waiting to ease

Jeremy Forster discusses the Fed's steady policy rates, inflation forecasts, and potential interest rate cuts amidst economic uncertainties.

By

event June 2025

4 min

Article

2026-08-01

Interest rates Private credit Private investing Private Investing Program Diversification Income Privates Video

Deep dive on CLO equity investing

Alyssa Irving, Fixed Income Portfolio Manager, discusses the CLO equity asset class, highlighting its diversification potential, risk-return dynamics, and the crucial role of managers.

By

event June 2025

3 min

Video

2026-06-30

Currency Macro and market Interest rates Content CoE Program Global Program Fixed income Article

The yen smile: New economic era upends traditional safe-haven currency relationships

Portfolio Manager Sam Hogg discusses the US Dollar Smile Theory and the Japanese yen's safe-haven status in the context of global trade and monetary policy changes.

By

Sam Hogg

event May 2025

5 min

Article

2026-05-31

Interest rates Private investing Venture capital Private Investing Program Private equity Video

Late-stage growth investing: Deployment, valuations, and exits

Matt Witheiler, head of late-stage growth, outlines the state of the late-stage private market, discussing deployments, valuations, and exits.

By

Matt Witheiler

event March 2025

7 min

Video

2026-03-31

Interest rates Private credit Private investing Private Investing Program Video

Private credit: Public/private convergence

Our private credit experts explore the convergence of public and private markets, highlighting key areas of opportunity in private credit 2.0.

Multiple authors

event March 2025

9 min

Video

2026-03-31

Fixed income Inflation Interest rates Content CoE Program Global Program Article

FOMC meeting: Misery loves company

Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Jeremy Forster explores the Fed's decision to hold rates, downgraded economic forecasts, and the implications of balance-sheet policy changes on inflation and market conditions.

By

event March 2025

3 min

Article

2026-03-31

Interest rates Private credit Private investing Private Investing Program Article

CLO equity returns in a tight spread environment

Our CLO experts discuss CLO equity investing in today's tight spread environment, focusing on arbitrage, optionality, and income potential.

By

Andrew Bayerl, CFA

event March 2025

6 min

Article

2026-02-28

Interest rates Private equity Venture capital Private Investing Program Private investing Article

No more free lunch: Impact of higher interest rates on private equity

We explain what the direct and indirect rate exposure of buyouts, venture capital, growth equity, secondaries, and fund-of-funds mean for investors.

By

William Craig

Mark Watson

event February 2025

5 min

Article

2026-02-28

Interest rates Private credit Private investing Private Investing Program Inflation Video

Private credit roundtable: Outlook in 2025

Our private credit experts explore the potential effects of Trump 2.0 policies — like tariffs and deregulation — on the asset class in 2025. In addition, they dive into the impact of higher-for-longer interest rates, the broadening of private credit markets, and much more.

Multiple authors

event February 2025

15 min

Video

2026-02-28

USA Inflation Interest rates Content CoE Program Global Program Elections Macro Article Wellington on Washington and the World

The US immigration crackdown: Weighing the economic implications

As the details of new US immigration policies come into focus, Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan considers the risks they may pose for the labor market and the broader economy.

By

event February 2025

7 min

Article

2026-02-28

Fixed income Inflation Interest rates Content CoE Program Global Program USA Macro and market Article

Fed in holding pattern

Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Jeremy Forster unpacks the US Federal Reserve's decision to pause its interest-rate-cutting cycle.

By

event January 2025

3 min

Article

2026-02-28

Artificial intelligence (AI) Volatility Outlook Content CoE Program Global Program Multi-asset Fiscal policy Inflation Interest rates Article

Executive Summary 2025: Finding opportunity amid uncertainty

In this article, we summarize some of the key findings from our 2025 outlooks, from divergence-driven opportunities to the impacts of AI and beyond.

event January 2025

3 min

Article

2026-06-06

Fixed income Interest rates Monetary policy Content CoE Program Global Program USA Article

Fed delivers rate cut, but hawkish 2025 guidance sends yields up

Fixed Income Analyst Caroline Casavant examines the outcome of the December 18 Federal Open Market Committee meeting and the implications for rates, inflation, and real growth.

By

event December 2024

3 min

Article

2025-06-30

Active management Fixed income Outlook Content CoE Program Global Program Credit Government bonds Investment grade Economic cycle Interest rates Monetary policy Article

Going their separate ways: Capitalizing on bond divergence

Our fixed income experts discuss how to position portfolios for a world of uncertainty and divergence, exploring key themes and evolving bond opportunities for 2025.

Multiple authors

event December 2024

7 min

Article

2025-12-31

Fiscal policy Interest rates Tactical allocation Content CoE Program Global Program iStrat Multi-asset Outlook Article

Trump 2.0: Time to curb your enthusiasm?

How does an allocator navigate markets when so much about the policy landscape is unknown? Our Investment Strategy & Solutions Group offers their views on the new political realities in the US and their global implications, including for equities, bonds, and commodities.

Multiple authors

event December 2024

12 min

Article

2025-12-31

Interest rates Outlook Private investing Content CoE Program Global Program Article

Private credit outlook for 2025: 5 key trends

Our private credit experts, Emily Bannister and Sonali Wilson, highlight five critical trends for 2025: the convergence of public and private markets, AI's impact on private credit, the evolving role of banks in lending markets, the impact of higher interest rates, and the importance of financial covenants.

By

Emily Bannister, CFA

Sonali Wilson

event December 2024

6 min

Article

2025-12-31

Elections Fiscal policy Geopolitics Inflation Interest rates Macro WELLSaid Podcast Podcast

Trump 2.0: US election market impacts

In the wake of the US election, macro strategists Juhi Dhawan and Michael Medeiros join host Thomas Mucha to discuss the market, policy, and geopolitical implications of Trump 2.0.

By

Michael Medeiros, CFA

event November 2024

21 min

Podcast

2025-11-30

Equity Economic cycle Interest rates Content CoE Program Global Program Americas Inflation Monetary policy Yielding insights Article

What is “the economic cycle,” anyway?

See why the relationship between asset prices and the economic cycle is more complex than you might think, why a US recession is unlikely, and what a more dovish Fed could mean for the US and global markets.

By

event October 2024

5 min

Article

2025-10-31

Macro and market Interest rates Monetary policy Content CoE Program Global Program Article

Can central bank independence survive?

Can central bank independence survive? Macro Strategist John Butler discusses the challenges faced by central banks in an increasingly fraught political environment and how investors should adjust.

By

event October 2024

5 min

Article

2025-09-30

Economic cycle Interest rates Portfolio strategy Advised Retail Program iStrat Active management Chart in Focus Tactical allocation Infographic

Chart in Focus: What does the rate cut mean for equities and bonds?

Are rate cuts positive? On the heels of the much-anticipated initial Fed cut, in this article we look to historic precedent for where the markets could go in the coming months.

Multiple authors

event September 2024

3 min

Infographic

2025-09-30

Fixed income Monetary policy Yielding insights Content CoE Program Global Program Market commentary Americas Opportunistic Fixed Income Interest rates Article

The real issue on rate cuts? Keep your eyes on the dot (plot)

Keep your eyes on the Fed's 2025 dot plot. The real story is where policy rates are headed, not just the next rate cut.

By

event September 2024

3 min

Article

2025-09-30

Active management Fixed income Macro and market Wealth Program Americas Brazil Canada Mexico USA APAC Asia Australia China India Japan EMEA Africa Europe France Germany Italy Russia United Kingdom Emerging markets Inflation Interest rates Macro Monetary policy Asset allocation Article

Time to capitalise on the evolving role of bonds?

We outline why we think the new economic era is elevating the role of bonds as a source of attractive and stable income, downside protection and portfolio diversification.

By

Marco Giordano

event September 2024

2 min

Article

2025-09-30

Economic cycle Interest rates Monetary policy Content CoE Program Global Program Yielding insights Article

Walking a mile in Fed Chair Powell’s shoes

A slow roll on rate cuts by the Fed could frustrate markets and lead to more volatility ahead of the September FOMC meeting. See our take on what to expect for the next few weeks.

By

event August 2024

4 min

Article

2025-08-31

Market disruptions Volatility Tactical allocation Institutional Program Content CoE Program Global Program Interest rates Multi-asset iStrat Article

Massive market sell-off: Justified or an overreaction?

What's behind the global market meltdown, and what should investors consider doing? Global Investment and Multi-Asset Strategist Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson shares her views.

By

event August 2024

3 min

Article

2025-08-31

Fixed income Economic cycle Monetary policy Content CoE Program Global Program Credit USA Inflation Interest rates Yielding insights Article

Still waiting…Fed wants more data before cutting policy rates

Our expert dives into Fed policy following the July FMOC meeting.

By

event August 2024

3 min

Article

2024-10-31

Elections Interest rates DB Public Program Content CoE Program Global Program Top of Mind USA Fixed income iStrat Article Tactical allocation

Does the US election even matter? Thoughts on politics, Fed policy, and portfolios

What's next for interest rates and what impact will the US election have? Head of Multi-Asset Strategy Adam Berger and Macro Strategist Mike Medeiros share their outlook and discuss the asset allocation implications.

By

Adam Berger, CFA

Michael Medeiros, CFA

event July 2024

9 min

Article

2025-06-30

Income Fixed income Interest rates Wealth Program Asia advised retail Credit Wealth Wealth Chart in Focus Infographic

Chart in Focus: Four key areas of opportunities in bonds amid Fed uncertainty

We discuss four key areas of opportunities in fixed income amid Fed uncertainty in the second half of the year.

By

Campe Goodman, CFA

event July 2024

3 min

Infographic

2025-07-31

Elections Inflation Interest rates Institutional Program Credit Government bonds Fixed income Americas Wellington on Washington and the World Article

Are US election probabilities now a critical driver of bond yields?

Our expert argues that the US election remains a critical catalyst for the bond market given the contrast between both parties as it relates to supply side policies such as trade and immigration, and to policy differences around taxation and regulation.

By

Michael Medeiros, CFA

event July 2024

3 min

Article

2024-11-30

Economic cycle Interest rates Late stage Venture capital Private investing Americas Whitepaper

Disappearing unicorns: The importance of capital efficiency in a higher-for-longer rate environment

Members of our late-state growth equity team share their views on the impact of interest rates on venture capital activity — including the ability of companies to reach “unicorns” status.

By

William Craig

Mark Watson

event July 2024

8 min

Whitepaper

2025-07-31

Interest rates Outlook Content CoE Program Global Program Inflation Tactical allocation Article iStrat

All-time highs and CPIs: What comes next?

Global fundamentals have kept markets content so far this year, but will politics sour the mood? Members of our Investment Strategy & Solutions Group offer their views on the second half of 2024, including on equities, bonds, and commodities.

Multiple authors

event July 2024

14 min

Article

2025-01-08

Fixed income Interest rates Outlook Income Credit EM debt Government bonds High yield Investment grade Article

Capitalizing on rate shifts: Parsing opportunities in the second half

Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Campe Goodman and Fixed Income Strategist Amar Reganti discuss how to capitalize on potential rate shifts in the second half of the year

By

Campe Goodman, CFA

event June 2024

7 min

Article

2025-06-30

Economic cycle Interest rates Monetary policy iStrat Article Tactical allocation

When the Fed sneezes, the ECB… cuts rates regardless?

Since the late 1990s, when the US cycle turned, the rest of the world generally followed, with a lag. However, the new economic era is likely to result in greater cyclical divergence between countries and the need for different central bank responses. How should investors think about the age of economic divergence?

By

Supriya Menon

Alex King, CFA

event June 2024

7 min

Article

2025-03-21

Fixed income Macro and market Monetary policy Inflation Interest rates Credit Government bonds Investment grade Article

June FOMC meeting: May disinflation is welcome, but is not enough for a rate cut

Fixed Income Analyst Caroline Casavant discusses what June's FOMC meeting tells us about the US Federal Reserve’s latest thinking on interest-rate cuts.

By

event June 2024

3 min

Article

2025-06-30

Elections Inflation Outlook Interest rates Article Equity Fixed income Multi-asset

Thriving or surviving? The state of the US consumer and the economic implications

Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan examines the condition of the all-important consumer, including the outlook for spending, the effects of inflation and prevailing interest rates, and the consequences for the overall economy.

By

event June 2024

8 min

Article

2025-06-30

Interest rates Monetary policy Outlook Economic cycle Fiscal policy Macro USA Japan Europe France Germany Italy United Kingdom Fixed income Macro hedge funds Credit Government bonds Investment grade Article

Governments have been slow to reduce their fiscal deficits — it could cost them

Our expert explores the investment implications of continued excessive deficit spending by G7 countries.

By

Eoin O'Callaghan

event June 2024

4 min

Article

2025-06-30

Credit Interest rates Asset allocation Fixed income Top of Mind Article Tactical allocation iStrat

Structuring core fixed income: A constructive view on market and macro conditions

Head of Multi-Asset Strategy Adam Berger and Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Connor Fitzgerald discuss the interest-rate environment and the fundamental picture in investment-grade credit and high yield.

By

Adam Berger, CFA

Connor Fitzgerald, CFA

event May 2024

7 min

Article

2025-05-30

Active management Interest rates Credit Inflation Income Growth Tactical allocation Fixed income Article iStrat

New era demands a nimble approach to credit

Our expert explains why deep research and an active approach are effective ways for fixed income investors to uncover credit opportunities in today's market.

By

Campe Goodman, CFA

event May 2024

5 min

Article

2025-05-31

Multi-asset iStrat Tactical allocation Article Fixed income Interest rates Quarterly Asset Allocation Outlook

With the Fed on hold, is the case for bonds kaput?

Amid worries about sticky inflation, the market has scaled back its expectations for interest rate cuts this year. But even if rate cuts are on hold a while longer, members of our Multi-Asset Team still think investors should consider a move from cash to bonds.

By

Nick Samouilhan, PhD, CFA, FRM

Alex King, CFA

event May 2024

5 min

Article

2025-05-30

Asset allocation Economic cycle Interest rates iStrat program Multi-asset iStrat Video Tactical allocation

Exploring active opportunities amid continued regime change

Head of Multi-Asset Strategy, APAC, Nick Samouilhan outlines why today's environment of dispersion, divergence and disruption offers potentially compelling opportunities for active investors.

By

event May 2024

2 min

Video

2025-04-30

Inflation Economic cycle Monetary policy Americas Interest rates Fixed income Article

Powell back to waiting on inflation data

Our expert's key takeaways from the May FOMC meeting.

By

event May 2024

2 min

Article

2025-05-31

Economic cycle Interest rates Monetary policy Fixed income program Inflation Fiscal policy USA Credit Article Yielding insights

The Fed’s lessons learned from its COVID response

Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Brij Khurana breaks down the central bank's policy decisions during the pandemic and explains how they continue to affect financial markets.

By

event April 2024

6 min

Article

2025-04-30

Elections Interest rates Inflation Americas Article

The immigration surge: Political challenge, economic blessing?

Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan considers the impact of rising immigration, a top issue in this year's US elections, on growth, interest rates, and the labor market.

By

event April 2024

4 min

Article

2025-04-30

Macro and market Japan Fixed income Equity Macro Interest rates Article

Four questions for investors after Japan’s historic hike

With the Bank of Japan having finally moved out of negative rates, Macro Strategist John Butler identifies the four key questions he believes investors should focus on.

By

event April 2024

5 min

Article

2025-04-30

Multi-asset iStrat Tactical allocation Asset allocation Article Interest rates Economic cycle iStrat program Quarterly Asset Allocation Outlook

Do fundamentals support a risk-on tilt?

Surprisingly strong economic growth, declining inflation, easy financial conditions — can it get any better for markets? Members of our Investment Strategy & Solutions Group offer their outlook, including their latest views on equities, bonds, and commodities.

Multiple authors

event April 2024

Article

2025-03-31

Fiscal policy Volatility Monetary policy Fixed income program Inflation Interest rates Americas Fixed income Credit Government bonds High yield Investment grade Quick Take

FOMC: Stable policy amid market volatility

The Fed is holding steady amid market turmoil. See our quick notes on the FOMC's March policy statement, forecasts, and the Fed chair's press conference.

By

event March 2024

Quick Take

2025-03-31

Fixed income Interest rates Investment grade Opportunistic Fixed Income Global Credit Plus Multi-Sector Credit High yield Credit Americas Economic cycle Fixed income program Quick Take

Agency MBS key questions for 2024

Is there room for mortgage spreads to tighten further? Brian Conroy and Joseph Marvan examine this and seven other questions that will be significant for the agency MBS market in 2024.

By

Brian Conroy, CFA

Joseph Marvan, CFA

event March 2024

Quick Take

2025-03-31

Economic cycle Interest rates Monetary policy Fixed income program Inflation Fiscal policy USA Credit Article Yielding insights

Is the US economy really that different since COVID?

US economists have been touting the resilience of the post-COVID economic rebound. Brij Khurana dissects several key economic indicators to see what's really changed since 2019.

By

event March 2024

Article

2025-03-31

Economic cycle Interest rates Monetary policy Credit Americas China Europe Fixed income program Quick Take

Bizarro World: Could 2024 be the opposite of 2023?

Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Brij Khurana details the dynamics that may upend investor expectations of a repeat of 2023 this year.

By

event January 2024

Quick Take

2025-01-17

Outlook Fundamental equity EM equity Large-cap Small-cap Equity USA APAC China United Kingdom Emerging markets Growth Asset allocation Volatility Interest rates Economic cycle Article

Will a “Goldilocks” economy be just right for equity markets?

We provide an outlook on the ongoing shift to new investment regime, and the market segments that we expect will most heavily influence global equity performance in the coming year.

By

Andrew Heiskell

event December 2023

Article

2024-12-31

Outlook Interest rates Fixed income Global Credit Plus Global High Yield Opportunistic Fixed Income Multi-Sector Credit Fixed income program Article

Rates: Tracking the trade-off between inflation and growth

In their 2024 rates outlook, Investment Directors Amar Reganti and Marco Giordano investigate the treacherous trade-off faced by central banks and what it means for bond investors.

By

Marco Giordano

event December 2023

Article

2024-12-31

Interest rates Economic cycle Monetary policy Fixed income program Americas Fixed income Government bonds Investment grade Multi-Sector Credit Global Credit Plus Quick Take

Fed’s projections yielded mixed results this year — what’s in store for 2024?

Our Fed watcher opines on 2023 policy and looks ahead to 2024.

By

event December 2023

Quick Take

2024-12-14

Japan Macro and market Monetary policy Inflation Interest rates Fixed income program Quick Take

Should investors prepare for a rate hike in Japan?

Investment Directors Marco Giordano and Masahiko Loo discuss why a rate rise in Japan may occur sooner than markets expect.

By

Marco Giordano

Masahiko Loo

event December 2023

Quick Take

2024-12-04

Outlook Macro and market Interest rates Germany Macro Economic cycle Fixed income program Article

2024: A year of intensifying macro regime change?

John Butler and Eoin O’Callaghan explore why 2024 could be a year of intensifying macro regime change and what it means for investors.

By

Eoin O'Callaghan

event November 2023

Article

2024-11-30

Macro and market Interest rates Artificial intelligence (AI) Macro hedge funds EM debt Government bonds Credit High yield Investment grade Fixed income Liquid alternatives & hedge funds Macro Alternatives investing Article

Macro implications of the AI revolution: is the market right?

Macro Strategist John Butler sets out an initial framework to help answer key questions about the potential macro impact of artificial intelligence.

By

event November 2023

Article

2024-11-30

Interest rates Asset allocation Monetary policy Fixed income program iStrat program Income Tactical allocation Fixed income iStrat Quick Take

You snooze, you may lose: The case for bonds

There are signs the Federal Reserve's rate-hiking cycle may be nearing an end, but some uncertainty remains. With that in mind, Multi-Asset Strategist Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson considers the timing of a move from cash to bonds.

By

event November 2023

Quick Take

2024-11-14

Long-short Europe Volatility Liquid alternatives & hedge funds Market disruptions Interest rates Inflation Alternatives investing Article

Long/short investing in European equities' growing dispersion

We explore how growing dispersion in European equity markets is driving opportunities for long/short investors, fueled by structurally higher inflation, changing market leadership, and a renewed focus on valuation.

By

Dirk Enderlein, CFA

event September 2023

Article

2024-09-30

Interest rates Economic cycle Monetary policy Americas Fixed income Government bonds Investment grade Global Credit Plus Multi-Sector Credit Quick Take

Fed not yet willing to declare victory on inflation

We think the Fed is done raising rates for this cycle, despite the likelihood that they are being overly optimistic about inflation. Read to find out why.

By

event September 2023

Quick Take

2024-09-21

Large-cap Interest rates Stewardship Sustainable investing Equity Fundamental equity Article

Building resilience: Key questions equity investors need to ask today

Yolanda Courtines explores how equity investors can re-assess the resilience of their core portfolio against higher interest rates and more adverse macro conditions.

By

Yolanda Courtines, CFA

event August 2023

Article

2024-08-23

Fiscal policy Interest rates Monetary policy USA Quick Take

After the US downgrade: Thoughts on public debt, bond yields, and Fed policy

In the wake of the US debt downgrade by Fitch, Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan explains what worries her most about the nation's debt situation and considers the impact on the term premium and the Fed’s plans.

By

event August 2023

Quick Take

2024-08-22

Income Credit Interest rates iStrat Investment grade Fixed income Americas Inflation Fiscal policy Monetary policy Fixed income program Quick Take

Why cash won’t cut it for long: The case for bonds

Global Investment and Multi-Asset Strategist Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson and Investment Strategy Analyst Patrick Wattiau explore the relative potential benefits of bonds versus cash.

By

Raina Dunkelberger, CFA, CAIA

Patrick Wattiau

event August 2023

Quick Take

2024-08-17

Credit Volatility Asset allocation Fixed income Economic cycle Interest rates Quick Take

Sector rotation opportunities for nimble credit investors

Following a credit market rally, Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Rob Burn still sees value in higher-yielding sectors but believes investors should stay nimble.

By

Rob Burn, CFA

event February 2023

Quick Take

2024-02-29

Credit Interest rates Asset allocation Fixed income Economic cycle Quick Take

What’s driving convertibles in 2023?

Following a challenging 2022, Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Mike Barry and Investment Director Raina Dunkelberger highlight three tailwinds that may help turn the tide for convertibles.

By

Michael Barry

event February 2023

Quick Take

2024-01-31

Monetary policy Interest rates Inflation Fixed income Economic cycle USA Quick Take

February Fed meeting: Chair Powell strikes a more optimistic tone

The Fed just might still be able to engineer the hoped-for "soft landing" but it's not going to be easy, says Fixed Income Analyst Caroline Casavant.

By

event February 2023

Quick Take

2023-09-30

Credit Interest rates Asset allocation Fixed income Economic cycle Monetary policy Quick Take

CLOs: Poised to outperform in 2023?

Collateralized loan obligations (CLOs) have been sparking investor interest lately — and with good reason, say Investment Director Andrew Bayerl and Investment Specialist Celene Klimas.

By

Andrew Bayerl, CFA

Celene Klimas, CFA

event January 2023

Quick Take

2024-01-31

Credit Investment grade Economic cycle Fixed income Interest rates Quick Take

Can US bank loans “carry” investors through 2023?

Fixed Income Portfolios managers Jeffrey Heuer, CFA and David Marshak and Investment Director Nick Leichtman describe what they see as the most prudent approach to the bank loans asset class in 2023 and why.

By

Jeffrey Heuer, CFA

David Marshak

event January 2023

Quick Take

2024-01-31

Japan Volatility Monetary policy Private pension (DB) Retirement Interest rates Quick Take

Could Japan face a UK-style pension crisis?

Investment Director Masahiko Loo explores the risks of Japan facing a UK-style pension crisis and identifies fundamental reasons that make Japanese pension funds inherently less vulnerable.

By

Masahiko Loo

event January 2023

Quick Take

2024-01-31

Credit Investment grade Economic cycle Fixed income Interest rates Monetary policy Asset allocation Quick Take Liquid alternatives & hedge funds Long-short

Take credit: Our five best credit market ideas for 2023

Fixed Income Strategist Amar Reganti highlights credit market opportunities that he expects to arise over the course of 2023, against a backdrop of slowing growth.

By

Adam Norman

event January 2023

Quick Take

2024-01-31

High yield Credit Economic cycle Fixed income Interest rates Monetary policy Asset allocation Quick Take

High yield: Opportunity to pivot in 2023?

Our high-yield bond portfolio managers have a guardedly optimistic outlook on the market and believe security selection will be key to benchmark-relative outperformance in 2023.

Multiple authors

event January 2023

Quick Take

2024-01-31

Monetary policy Interest rates Inflation Economic cycle USA Quick Take

The Fed’s unenviable task for 2023

Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Jeremy Forster offers his forward-looking take on the Fed's comments and latest rate hike coming out of its December meeting.

By

event December 2022

Quick Take

2023-12-31

Investment grade Fixed income Portfolio strategy Inflation Interest rates Asset allocation Monetary policy Total return Credit Quick Take

Hidden in plain sight: Overlooked opportunities in investment-grade credit

Fixed Income Strategist Amar Reganti and Investment Specialist Geoff Austein-Miller highlight some relatively simple, straightforward ways to implement a positive view on high-quality corporate credit.

By

Geoff Austein-Miller

event December 2022

Quick Take

2023-12-31

Europe Inflation Economic cycle Outlook No Optimizely Monetary policy Interest rates Fiscal policy Multi-asset Article

Why Europe could surprise in 2023

Eoin O’Callaghan and John Butler discuss the contrasting prospects of the Euro Area and the UK and why 2023 could bring positive surprises in the region.

By

Eoin O'Callaghan

event December 2022

Article

2023-12-31

Inflation Economic cycle Macro and market Outlook No Optimizely Fiscal policy Interest rates Monetary policy Geopolitics USA Consumer Article

2023: The year of disinflation for the US economy

In the coming year, US Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan expects to see inflation begin to decline, the economy adjust to higher interest rates, and labor markets feel the pain of restrictive Fed policy.

By

event November 2022

Article

2023-12-31

geopolitical-outlook-2023-structural-policies

Geopolitics Inflation Elections Outlook No Optimizely Interest rates Article

Geopolitical outlook: Shifting policies, structural advantages?

Geopolitical Strategist Thomas Mucha and Macro Strategist Santiago Millán look at five geopolitical themes they believe investors should watch in 2023.

By

Thomas Mucha

Santiago Millán, CFA

event November 2022

Article

2023-12-31

Emerging markets EM debt Monetary policy No Optimizely Inflation Interest rates Volatility Fixed income Outlook Article

Emerging markets debt outlook: A glass half full or half empty?

Against a still-challenging global backdrop for emerging markets, Macro Strategist Gillian Edgeworth highlights opportunities created by extreme credit spread dispersion across individual countries.

By

Gillian Edgeworth

event November 2022

Article

2023-12-31

Credit Inflation Interest rates Volatility Asset allocation Fixed income Quick Take

Three tailwinds that could power CLO equity in 2023 and beyond

Three members of our fixed income team argue that the headwinds currently facing CLO equity should give way to improved returns in 2023 and beyond.

Multiple authors

event November 2022

Quick Take

2023-11-30

Asia Insurance Risk management Portfolio construction Asset allocation Diversification Interest rates Balance sheet Quick Take

Solving the duration mismatch to address Asian insurers’ interest-rate risk

Insurance Strategist Max Davies and ALM & Regulatory Capital Strategist Francisco Sebastian explain why diversifying across a varied mix of investment options is becoming increasingly important for Asia’s life insurers.

By

Max Davies, CFA, CAIA

Francisco Sebastian, FIA

event November 2022

Quick Take

2023-12-31

Monetary policy Economic cycle Inflation Interest rates USA Quick Take

November FOMC meeting: How slow can the Fed go?

Investment Specialist Caroline Casavant shares her takeaways from the November FOMC meeting, including thoughts on the likely pace of further Fed interest-rate hikes.

By

event November 2022

Quick Take

2023-01-31

Monetary policy Inflation Interest rates Economic cycle Currency Japan Fixed income Quick Take

Bank of Japan policy shift: Waiting for the other shoe to drop?

Client Portfolio Manager Jitu Naidu and Investment Director Masahiko Loo share their take on the consensus view that Japan has reached several key inflection points.

By

Jitu Naidu

Masahiko Loo

event November 2022

Quick Take

2023-01-31

Credit Interest rates Monetary policy Inflation Economic cycle Volatility Fixed income USA Quick Take

Can agency MBS bounce back from dismal performance?

Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Brian Conroy and two colleagues weigh in on the mortgage-backed securities (MBS) market in the wake of a very challenging month.

Multiple authors

event October 2022

Quick Take

2023-01-31

Equity Volatility Monetary policy Economic cycle Interest rates Quick Take

Equity market volatility is perking up: Why now?

The recent uptick in equity volatility may be about looming macro and systemic risks in today's uncertain environment. Director of Global Derivatives Gordy Lawrence explains.

By

Gordon Lawrence, CFA

event October 2022

Quick Take

2023-10-31

Interest rates Inflation Credit Asset allocation Fixed income USA Quick Take

Bank loans: Can issuers overcome higher interest expenses?

The short answer, according to Fixed Income Portfolio Managers Jeff Heuer and David Marshak, is that many can. And, they believe bank loans can outperform many other fixed-income sectors over the next 12 months.

Multiple authors

event October 2022

Quick Take

2023-01-31

Volatility Fiscal policy Monetary policy Currency Interest rates Economic cycle United Kingdom Article

UK in the eye of the storm: which countries might be next?

Macro Strategist John Butler provides his latest take on what's happening in the UK and its broader global implications.

By

event September 2022

Article

2022-12-31

Monetary policy Interest rates Inflation Economic cycle USA Multi-asset Quick Take

The Fed’s “lean, leave, then clean” strategy

US inflation could prove "stickier" than many observers think. How might that influence Fed policy into 2023? Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Jeremy Forster opines.

By

event September 2022

Quick Take

2022-12-31

Monetary policy Inflation Interest rates USA Quick Take No Optimizely Unique Perspectives

No more Mr. Nice Guy? Fed Chair Powell talks tough on inflation

Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Brij Khurana offers his latest thoughts on Fed policy following the central bank's recent Jackson Hole meeting.

By

event September 2022

Quick Take

2023-09-30

Economic cycle Inflation Portfolio strategy Interest rates Monetary policy Multi-asset Quick Take

Positioning for a “pricey” recession scenario

Client Portfolio Manager Jitu Naidu and Fixed Income Strategist Amar Reganti offer portfolio positioning ideas for the potential recession scenario that may lie ahead.

By

Jitu Naidu

event August 2022

Quick Take

2022-11-30

Emerging markets EM debt Credit Interest rates Currency Inflation Monetary policy Article

Emerging local debt markets: Time to wade in?

Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Michael Henry sees positive trends across ELD fundamentals, valuations, and technicals that could be tailwinds for these markets going forward.

By

Michael Henry

event August 2022

Article

2023-08-31

Fintech Digital payments Economic cycle Tech & Innovation Disruption Interest rates Equity Global Industry Research Fundamental equity Quick Take Financials

Fintech industry outlook in a recession

We explore the current environment for the fintech industry and highlight a few factors that show why the outlook for payments and other related subindustries may be less challenging than many may anticipate.

By

Matt Ross, CFA

Bruce Glazer

event August 2022

Quick Take

2023-07-31

Monetary policy Interest rates Inflation USA Fixed income Quick Take

July Fed meeting: Rising inflation vs falling growth

After another rate hike, the Fed must balance moderating growth with mounting inflation. Caroline Casavant opines on how the central bank might navigate this dilemma.

By

event July 2022

Quick Take

2022-10-31

Inflation Monetary policy Interest rates USA Article

US inflation: Supply chains to the rescue?

Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan shares her inflation outlook, including the prospects for supply-chain normalization, and her views on the market implications.

By

event July 2022

Article

2023-07-31

Credit Interest rates Portfolio strategy Quick Take

Don’t be surprised if CLO equity surprises to the upside

Members of our fixed income team, including Portfolio Manager Alyssa Irving, believe CLO equity could be poised to outperform many other risk assets over the next few years.

Multiple authors

event July 2022

Quick Take

2022-10-31

Credit Economic cycle Interest rates Monetary policy Government bonds USA Quick Take

Credit investing against a slower-growth, higher-inflation backdrop

The significant flattening of the US Treasury yield curve in recent months has some prognosticators calling for an impending US recession. Not so fast, says Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Rob Burn.

By

Rob Burn, CFA

event July 2022

Quick Take

2022-07-31

Monetary policy Inflation Interest rates Fixed income Quick Take

Timely musings on Fed policy and inflation

With rising inflation and interest rates dominating the financial headlines in recent weeks, I have been fielding a flurry of colleague and client questions about the likely future trajectory of US monetary policy. While I don’t claim to have all the answers, especially with so many “known unknowns” as of this writing, here are my latest thoughts.

By

event May 2022

Quick Take

2022-08-30

Inflation Interest rates Monetary policy Value vs growth Equity Fixed income Quick Take

US inflation risk, angry bondholders, and silver linings

Here are quick thoughts on some common questions I’ve been asked recently about Fed policy, yields, the US dollar, and financial markets.

By

Tim Antonelli, CAIA, CFA, FRM, SCR

event May 2022

Quick Take

2022-08-31

Credit Interest rates Risk management Monetary policy Quick Take

Empirical duration: reason for optimism on risk assets?

While rising rates often produce negative bond returns, combining the concept of empirical duration with a positive outlook on the credit cycle may bode well for some fixed income sectors' return prospects going forward. Investment Analyst Will Prenits and Investment Director Tobias Ripka explain.

By

Will Prentis

Tobias Ripka, CFA

event May 2022

Quick Take

2022-07-31

Inflation Europe Portfolio strategy Yield Monetary policy Interest rates Quick Take

Helping European investors navigate inflation fears

The recent shift to a higher inflation regime, with resulting expectations of tighter monetary policy and rising interest rates, presents a material challenge for European fixed income investors. Against this backdrop, Investment Analyst Will Prentis and Investment Director Tobias Ripka believe investment flexibility is key.

By

Will Prentis

Tobias Ripka, CFA

event April 2022

Quick Take

2022-07-31

Insurance Inflation Multi-asset Interest rates Insurance Asset Allocation Outlook Whitepaper

Higher inflation, rising rates: Front and center for insurers

With macro and market complications piling up through the first few months of 2022, Insurance Multi-Asset Strategist Tim Antonelli provides his investment implications for global insurers.

By

event April 2022

Whitepaper

2022-10-15

Credit Interest rates Portfolio strategy Inflation Quick Take

Four potentially powerful tailwinds for the securitized sector

In his latest Top of Mind session, Multi-Asset Strategist Adam Berger addressed a wide range of what-if scenarios on the minds of our clients. See what he has to say on Russia, China, cryptocurrencies, the IPO market, and many other topics in this brief article.

Multiple authors

event March 2022

Quick Take

2022-06-30

Interest rates Equity USA Quick Take

How might equity sectors fare when Fed tightening begins?

We look back at how US equities have performed in the months following the beginning of a tightening cycle, as well as how bond yields have tended to behave.

By

event March 2022

Quick Take

2022-05-31

Monetary policy Interest rates Equity Fixed income USA Quick Take

Credit and equity performance around Fed hiking cycles

One of the discussion topics du jour is how the credit and equity markets might react to the US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest-rate hikes that are widely anticipated in the coming months. As is often the case with me, I find it helpful here to refer to past hiking regimes and market performances as a sort of guidepost. The proof’s in the pudding To wit, I examined the historical returns of both US credit (for this purpose, proxied by corporate high-yield bonds) and US equities (represented by the S&P 500 Index) during the six months before the first rate increase of a Fed hiking cycle through the 12 months after said increase.

By

Rob Burn, CFA

event February 2022

Quick Take

2022-05-31

Inflation Interest rates USA Quick Take

Fed watch 2022: Year of the hawk?

With inflation on the rise and all eyes seemingly on the Fed these days, Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Jeremy Forster shares his takeaways from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)'s December 2021 meeting.

By