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February Fed meeting: Chair Powell strikes a more optimistic tone
The Fed just might still be able to engineer the hoped-for "soft landing" but it's not going to be easy, says Fixed Income Analyst Caroline Casavant.
Quick Take
2023-09-30
Why investing in themes for EM equities may reap rewards
Portfolio Manager Dáire Dunne outlines why he is increasingly optimistic about the potential opportunities within select EM equity themes this year.
Article
2024-02-29
Why global investors should watch the Bank of Japan
Macro Strategist John Butler explores why global investors should watch the Bank of Japan and what is likely to happen next.
Quick Take
2024-01-31
Spread the risk: Our top three fixed income diversifiers for 2023
Fixed Income Strategist Amar Reganti highlights three types of strategies that may be well positioned to provide fixed income portfolio diversification going forward.
Quick Take
2024-01-31
CLOs: Poised to outperform in 2023?
Collateralized loan obligations (CLOs) have been sparking investor interest lately — and with good reason, say Investment Director Andrew Bayerl and Investment Specialist Celene Klimas.
Quick Take
2024-01-31
Can US bank loans “carry” investors through 2023?
Fixed Income Portfolios managers Jeffrey Heuer, CFA and David Marshak and Investment Director Nick Leichtman describe what they see as the most prudent approach to the bank loans asset class in 2023 and why.
Quick Take
2024-01-31
Could Japan face a UK-style pension crisis?
Investment Director Masahiko Loo explores the risks of Japan facing a UK-style pension crisis and identifies fundamental reasons that make Japanese pension funds inherently less vulnerable.
Quick Take
2024-01-31
Take credit: Our five best credit market ideas for 2023
Fixed Income Strategist Amar Reganti highlights credit market opportunities that he expects to arise over the course of 2023, against a backdrop of slowing growth.
Quick Take
2024-01-31
High yield: Opportunity to pivot in 2023?
Our high-yield bond portfolio managers have a guardedly optimistic outlook on the market and believe security selection will be key to benchmark-relative outperformance in 2023.
Quick Take
2024-01-31
The Fed’s unenviable task for 2023
Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Jeremy Forster offers his forward-looking take on the Fed's comments and latest rate hike coming out of its December meeting.
Quick Take
2023-12-31
Reality bites: Are equity markets too upbeat?
Cautious on global equity risk, Global Investment Strategist Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson suggests that investors favor higher-quality stocks and take a look at high-quality fixed income.
Quick Take
2023-12-31
In a new era for interest rates, can hedge funds fill the role of fixed income?
Hedge funds could be valuable building blocks for a fixed income substitute portfolio, but how should the portfolio be constructed? Members of our Fundamental Factor Team share their views.
Article
2023-11-30
Why Europe could surprise in 2023
Eoin O’Callaghan and John Butler discuss the contrasting prospects of the Euro Area and the UK and why 2023 could bring positive surprises in the region.
Article
2023-12-31
Hidden in plain sight: Overlooked opportunities in investment-grade credit
Fixed Income Strategist Amar Reganti and Investment Specialist Geoff Austein-Miller highlight some relatively simple, straightforward ways to implement a positive view on high-quality corporate credit.
Quick Take
2023-12-31
Geopolitical outlook: Shifting policies, structural advantages?
Geopolitical Strategist Thomas Mucha and Macro Strategist Santiago Millán look at five geopolitical themes they believe investors should watch in 2023.
Article
2023-12-31
2023: The year of disinflation for the US economy
In the coming year, US Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan expects to see inflation begin to decline, the economy adjust to higher interest rates, and labor markets feel the pain of restrictive Fed policy.
Article
2023-12-31
Pivot points: Five portfolio positioning ideas for the new market regime
Multi-Asset Strategist Adam Berger looks at five ways in which the world may be very different in the coming decade and how they could influence the next wave of investment winners.
Article
2023-12-31
Emerging markets debt outlook: A glass half full or half empty?
Against a still-challenging global backdrop for emerging markets, Macro Strategist Gillian Edgeworth highlights opportunities created by extreme credit spread dispersion across individual countries.
Article
2023-12-31
Three tailwinds that could power CLO equity in 2023 and beyond
Three members of our fixed income team argue that the headwinds currently facing CLO equity should give way to improved returns in 2023 and beyond.
Quick Take
2023-11-30
Inflation, rates, and volatility: The best defense is a good offense
Insurance Strategist Tim Antonelli shares his latest multi-asset views for insurers, including the need to balance defensive portfolio strategies with continued income and return generation.
Whitepaper
2023-04-15
Solving the duration mismatch to address Asian insurers’ interest-rate risk
Insurance Strategist Max Davies and ALM & Regulatory Capital Strategist Francisco Sebastian explain why diversifying across a varied mix of investment options is becoming increasingly important for Asia’s life insurers.
Quick Take
2023-12-31
A practical guide to addressing Asian insurers’ interest-rate risk
Insurance Strategist Max Davies and ALM & Regulatory Capital Strategist Francisco Sebastian examine how diversification may help Asia's life insurers to better manage their exposure to interest-rate risk.
Whitepaper
2023-11-30
November FOMC meeting: How slow can the Fed go?
Investment Specialist Caroline Casavant shares her takeaways from the November FOMC meeting, including thoughts on the likely pace of further Fed interest-rate hikes.
Quick Take
2023-01-31
Bank of Japan policy shift: Waiting for the other shoe to drop?
Client Portfolio Manager Jitu Naidu and Investment Director Masahiko Loo share their take on the consensus view that Japan has reached several key inflection points.
Quick Take
2023-01-31
2023 Macro and rates outlook: Goodbye easy money, hello regime change
Macro Strategist John Butler highlights the impact of macroeconomic "regime change" on global inflation and interest rates, with potential implications for investors.
Article
2023-12-31
Can agency MBS bounce back from dismal performance?
Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Brian Conroy and two colleagues weigh in on the mortgage-backed securities (MBS) market in the wake of a very challenging month.
Quick Take
2023-01-31
Equity market volatility is perking up: Why now?
The recent uptick in equity volatility may be about looming macro and systemic risks in today's uncertain environment. Director of Global Derivatives Gordy Lawrence explains.
Quick Take
2023-10-31
Bank loans: Can issuers overcome higher interest expenses?
The short answer, according to Fixed Income Portfolio Managers Jeff Heuer and David Marshak, is that many can. And, they believe bank loans can outperform many other fixed-income sectors over the next 12 months.
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Quick Take
2023-01-31
The Fed wants to crush inflation, but at what cost?
Following a higher-than-expected inflation print and the Fed's latest rate hike, Global Investment Strategist Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson considers potential implications for fixed income and equities.
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Quick Take
2022-12-31
UK in the eye of the storm: which countries might be next?
Macro Strategist John Butler provides his latest take on what's happening in the UK and its broader global implications.
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Article
2022-12-31
The Fed’s “lean, leave, then clean” strategy
US inflation could prove "stickier" than many observers think. How might that influence Fed policy into 2023? Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Jeremy Forster opines.
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Quick Take
2022-12-31
No more Mr. Nice Guy? Fed Chair Powell talks tough on inflation
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Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Brij Khurana offers his latest thoughts on Fed policy following the central bank's recent Jackson Hole meeting.
Quick Take
2023-09-30
Positioning for a “pricey” recession scenario
Client Portfolio Manager Jitu Naidu and Fixed Income Strategist Amar Reganti offer portfolio positioning ideas for the potential recession scenario that may lie ahead.
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Quick Take
2022-11-30
Emerging local debt markets: Time to wade in?
Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Michael Henry sees positive trends across ELD fundamentals, valuations, and technicals that could be tailwinds for these markets going forward.
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Article
2023-08-31
What can history teach us about today's markets? A framework for drawing comparisons
Members of our Investment Strategy Group explain how they identify similarities to past market environments and what their approach is signaling about today's conditions.
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Quick Take
2022-11-30
Fintech industry outlook in a recession
We explore the current environment for the fintech industry and highlight a few factors that show why the outlook for payments and other related subindustries may be less challenging than many may anticipate.
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Quick Take
2023-07-31
July Fed meeting: Rising inflation vs falling growth
After another rate hike, the Fed must balance moderating growth with mounting inflation. Caroline Casavant opines on how the central bank might navigate this dilemma.
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Quick Take
2022-10-31
Mid-2022 Inflation Outlook
We explore the current inflation environment's significant impacts on asset markets, anticipated relief in supply-chain pressures, and opportunities in commodities and enduring assets.
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Article
2023-07-31
US inflation: Supply chains to the rescue?
Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan shares her inflation outlook, including the prospects for supply-chain normalization, and her views on the market implications.
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Article
2023-07-31
Don’t be surprised if CLO equity surprises to the upside
Members of our fixed income team, including Portfolio Manager Alyssa Irving, believe CLO equity could be poised to outperform many other risk assets over the next few years.
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Quick Take
2022-10-31
Credit investing against a slower-growth, higher-inflation backdrop
The significant flattening of the US Treasury yield curve in recent months has some prognosticators calling for an impending US recession. Not so fast, says Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Rob Burn.
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Quick Take
2022-07-31
Timely musings on Fed policy and inflation
With rising inflation and interest rates dominating the financial headlines in recent weeks, I have been fielding a flurry of colleague and client questions about the likely future trajectory of US monetary policy. While I don’t claim to have all the answers, especially with so many “known unknowns” as of this writing, here are my latest thoughts.
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Quick Take
2022-08-30
US inflation risk, angry bondholders, and silver linings
Here are quick thoughts on some common questions I’ve been asked recently about Fed policy, yields, the US dollar, and financial markets.
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Quick Take
2022-08-31
Empirical duration: reason for optimism on risk assets?
While rising rates often produce negative bond returns, combining the concept of empirical duration with a positive outlook on the credit cycle may bode well for some fixed income sectors' return prospects going forward. Investment Analyst Will Prenits and Investment Director Tobias Ripka explain.
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Quick Take
2022-07-31
Helping European investors navigate inflation fears
The recent shift to a higher inflation regime, with resulting expectations of tighter monetary policy and rising interest rates, presents a material challenge for European fixed income investors. Against this backdrop, Investment Analyst Will Prentis and Investment Director Tobias Ripka believe investment flexibility is key.
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Quick Take
2022-07-31
Higher inflation, rising rates: Front and center for insurers
With macro and market complications piling up through the first few months of 2022, Insurance Multi-Asset Strategist Tim Antonelli provides his investment implications for global insurers.
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Whitepaper
2022-10-15
Four potentially powerful tailwinds for the securitized sector
In his latest Top of Mind session, Multi-Asset Strategist Adam Berger addressed a wide range of what-if scenarios on the minds of our clients. See what he has to say on Russia, China, cryptocurrencies, the IPO market, and many other topics in this brief article.
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Quick Take
2022-06-30
Can the Fed engineer a soft landing?
As widely expected, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) yesterday raised its target federal funds rate...
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Quick Take
For markets, it’s complicated
As markets grapple with the war in Ukraine, inflation worries, and a host of other issues, Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson and Daniel Cook offer their thoughts on the investment implications for equities, commodities, and fixed income.
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Article
2022-10-31
How might equity sectors fare when Fed tightening begins?
We look back at how US equities have performed in the months following the beginning of a tightening cycle, as well as how bond yields have tended to behave.
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Quick Take
2022-05-31
Credit and equity performance around Fed hiking cycles
One of the discussion topics du jour is how the credit and equity markets might react to the US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest-rate hikes that are widely anticipated in the coming months. As is often the case with me, I find it helpful here to refer to past hiking regimes and market performances as a sort of guidepost.
The proof’s in the pudding
To wit, I examined the historical returns of both US credit (for this purpose, proxied by corporate high-yield bonds) and US equities (represented by the S&P 500 Index) during the six months before the first rate increase of a Fed hiking cycle through the 12 months after said increase.
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Quick Take
2022-05-31
2022 Fixed Income Outlook
Our fixed income outlook for 2022, examines our views on inflation and interest rates and the role central banks will play in the coming year.
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Article
2022-11-15
Fed watch 2022: Year of the hawk?
With inflation on the rise and all eyes seemingly on the Fed these days, Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Jeremy Forster shares his takeaways from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)'s December 2021 meeting.
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Quick Take
2022-07-29
Insurance Multi-Asset Outlook —The rising tide of inflation: Risks and opportunities for insurers
COVID vaccination progress and ample policy support may warrant a more pro-risk investment stance going forward, but persistent inflation concerns continue to loom. Multi-Asset Insurance Strategist Tim Antonelli and Investment Strategy Analyst Daniel Cook share insights to help insurers navigate these competing forces.
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Video
2022-07-01
Insurance Multi-Asset Outlook — Rising rates: Threat or opportunity?
Multi-Asset Insurance Strategist Tim Antonelli and Investment Strategy Analyst Daniel Cook argue that now may be an opportune time for insurers to adopt a more pro-risk stance, despite the potential headwind of rising rates.
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Whitepaper
2022-03-31
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