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What's current in credit: November 2024

Connor Fitzgerald explores the impact of President Trump’s US election victory on credit markets. Where are the opportunities and risks for credit investors now?

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2025-12-31
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Ideas for navigating a new era

Explore our latest views on risks and opportunities across the global capital markets.

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2025-11-30
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Navigating uncertain policy shifts

Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan explains why investors should prepare for heightened volatility in 2025, due to significant policy changes under President-elect Trump that will impact inflation, trade, and economic growth.

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2025-11-30
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Fed stays its course while acknowledging brewing winds of change

Our expert examines the underlying data which drove the Fed to stay its rate-cutting course.

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2025-11-30
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It’s different this time: Trump faces challenging geopolitical dynamics

Our expert explores how Trump may approach the heightened geopolitical challenges his second administration faces.

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2025-11-30
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Are bond investors ready for a US industrial revolution?

Portfolio Manager Connor Fitzgerald discusses why bond investors should ready themselves for a potential US industrial revolution and shares his perspective on how to reposition portfolios for such a scenario.

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2025-11-30
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What do the US election results mean for investors?

The US election results could have significant implications for the global economy and capital markets. Our panel of experts provides a thorough analysis of what happened and explores potential market impacts.

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2025-11-30
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Trump win likely to accelerate macro trends already in motion

The US election results could have significant implications for the global economy and markets. To help you understand these changes, US Macro Strategist Mike Medeiros provides a thorough analysis and discusses the potential market impacts.

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2025-11-30
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Monthly Asset Allocation Outlook

Wondering how to reposition your portfolio amid election-related uncertainty? Explore the latest monthly snapshot of our Multi-Asset Team’s asset class views.

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2025-11-30
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Securitized credit: Normalizing, decelerating, or falling off a cliff?

Our experts offer their views on the current conditions and outlook for the securitized credit market.

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2025-10-31
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An active investor’s guide to growth equities

Our experts offer their view on the current economic environment, explore best practices for investing in high-quality growth equities, and highlight where they see opportunity now.

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2025-09-30
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Chart in Focus: The need to differentiate market growth from macro growth

Macro growth and earnings growth have been misaligned for the last 15 years, particularly in the US and China, but in opposite directions. For equity investors, what would be the key to identify real growth?

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2025-09-30
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Rate relief: Fed cuts half point, but says “economy is strong” 

Our expert explains the Fed's bold rate cut and some key takeaways for investors.

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2025-09-30
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The US elections through the eyes of a European investor

Supriya Menon, Head of Multi-Asset Strategy – EMEA, explores what potentially material implications upcoming US elections could have for European investors and identifies key areas to monitor closely.

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2025-09-30
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What the yen carry trade unwind could mean for markets and the Fed

Brij Khurana explains why market participants are likely underestimating how foreign ownership of US assets could constrain the pace and magnitude of the Fed’s cutting cycle.

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2025-09-30
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Four investment perspectives amid a pivotal US election

How can investors reposition portfolios for a pivotal but highly unpredictable US elections? Nick Samouilhan explores potential avenues in conversation with three leading portfolio managers.

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2025-09-30
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Time to capitalise on the evolving role of bonds?

We outline why we think the new economic era is elevating the role of bonds as a source of attractive and stable income, downside protection and portfolio diversification.

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2025-09-30
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Harris vs Trump: The foreign policy and investment implications

Our expert examines expected Harris and Trump foreign policies and their potential impact on the investment landscape.

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2025-02-28
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Still waiting…Fed wants more data before cutting policy rates

Our expert dives into Fed policy following the July FMOC meeting.

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2024-10-31
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Does the US election even matter? Thoughts on politics, Fed policy, and portfolios

What's next for interest rates and what impact will the US election have? Head of Multi-Asset Strategy Adam Berger and Macro Strategist Mike Medeiros share their outlook and discuss the asset allocation implications.

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2025-06-30
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Chart in Focus: Broadening earnings growth signals healthy US equity market

Over the past year, the markets have seen the companies best poised to harness and benefit from new innovations within artificial intelligence rewarded accordingly.  Can this signal more upside for the entire US equity market?

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2025-07-31
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Ok, Boomer: How US generational wealth distribution could upend the economy and markets

Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Brij Khurana discusses the implications of US Baby Boomers' wealth concentration in the event of a market decline.

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2025-06-30
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Time for credit selection to shine

Fixed income investors continue to seek answers to an era of volatile rates. Large, static exposures to credit markets no longer cut it. Instead, a nimble and dynamic approach is more likely to create resilient and consistent total return outcomes.

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2025-07-31
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Insurance Quick Takes: One regulator's view of geopolitics’ impact on the industry

In our latest Insurance Quick Takes video, Tim Antonelli, Head of Insurance Multi-Asset Strategy and Portfolio Manager, discusses why a recent stress test from a regulator could have implications for insurers across the globe.

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2025-06-30
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The revenge of the monetarists

Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Brij Khurana makes the case for a monetarist explanation for moderating inflation.

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2025-06-30
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Governments have been slow to reduce their fiscal deficits — it could cost them

Our expert explores the investment implications of continued excessive deficit spending by G7 countries.

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2025-06-30
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The Fed’s lessons learned from its COVID response

Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Brij Khurana breaks down the central bank's policy decisions during the pandemic and explains how they continue to affect financial markets.

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2025-04-30
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Insurance Quick Takes: What's next for CLO risk charges?

Tim Antonelli, Head of Insurance Multi-Asset Strategy and Portfolio Manager, breaks down the impact of recent US insurance regulatory developments on the CLO universe, and why this matters for U.S. insurers. 

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2025-03-31
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The Trump/Biden rematch: Market implications of unprecedented policy divergence 

Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan discusses six key areas of policy debate in this year's US election that she expects will matter most to markets, from the tax and spending plans to trade and geopolitics.

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2025-03-31
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Is the US economy really that different since COVID?

US economists have been touting the resilience of the post-COVID economic rebound. Brij Khurana dissects several key economic indicators to see what's really changed since 2019. 

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2025-03-31
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Insurance Quick Takes: IFRS S1 and S2: What's the impact to insurance investing?

Tim Antonelli, Head of Multi-Asset Strategy – Insurance, discusses the implications of two new sustainability reporting standards for global insurers, IFRS S1 and IFRS S2, and why it's not just IFRS filers that should pay attention.

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2024-11-30
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The shifting liquidity landscape: What’s at stake?

The beginning of the end could be in sight for the Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening (QT) program. US Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan considers the Fed's next steps and what they could mean for banks, liquidity, and markets broadly.

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2025-01-31
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Will a “Goldilocks” economy be just right for equity markets?

We provide an outlook on the ongoing shift to new investment regime, and the market segments that we expect will most heavily influence global equity performance in the coming year. 

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2024-12-31
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The US economy in 2024: A tale of transition

Our US macro expert sees changes in consumer and investment spending in the coming year, and highlights what she'll be watching for in terms of policy, politics, and profit margins.

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2024-06-30
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How geopolitics and the energy transition may reshape global trade

We explore the potential near- and longer-term market effects of deteriorating US/China relations, coupled with the shift toward a low-carbon economy.

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2024-11-30
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Insurance Quick Takes: A look at the future landscape of US insurance climate risk oversight

Tim Antonelli, Head of Insurance Multi-Asset Strategy and Portfolio Manager, discusses the main points of a recent report published by the Federal Insurance Office (FIO), and the importance and impact to US insurers and insurance climate risk oversight.

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2024-10-31
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What if US wealth inequality reverses?

Our experts examine the role of wealth inequality in the US economy and the potential investment implications of a reversal in that dynamic.

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2024-09-30
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The “cleanest dirty shirt” now has too many stains

Fixed Income Portfolio Manager posits that US fiscal profligacy will change the game for asset allocators. 

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2024-09-30
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Public CRE debt — Risk, opportunity, or both?

Our experts explore the implications of the ongoing stress in the public CRE debt, or commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS), space for investors and analyze risks and opportunities for ratings-constrained insurers.

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2024-09-30
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After the US downgrade: Thoughts on public debt, bond yields, and Fed policy

In the wake of the US debt downgrade by Fitch, Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan explains what worries her most about the nation's debt situation and considers the impact on the term premium and the Fed’s plans.

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2024-08-31
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Seven observations on the latest US/China executive order

Geopolitical Strategist Thomas Mucha shares his analysis of the recent Biden administration executive order, which aims to restrict investment into certain sectors in China, and details the potential investment implications. 

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2024-08-31
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US loses its AAA rating (again)

US Macro Strategist Michael Medeiros analyzes Fitch's recent downgrade of US credit quality and explores the bigger issues at play.

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2024-08-31
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Chair Powell maintains optionality

Fixed Income Analyst Caroline Casavant shares what she thinks matters most for investors in light of the latest interest-rate hike from the Fed.

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2024-07-31
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The great American labor shortage: Causes, consequences, and solutions

Shifting demographics suggest that US labor markets will remain tight in years to come, with major implications for income inequality, investment spending, and government policy.

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2024-07-31
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State of the credit markets: Does cash rule everything around us?

Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Brij Khurana outlines the state of the credit market today, compares historical periods of quantitative easing, and warns credit investors of cash scarcity in the near future. 

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2024-06-30
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Insurance Quick Takes: Unpacking potential impacts of newly proposed NAIC regulations

Tim Antonelli, Head of Multi-Asset Strategy – Insurance, analyzes the potential impact for US insurers of a recent proposal that could allow the NAIC's security valuation office to override ratings of investments.

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2024-06-30
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Investing in the age of great-power competition

As competition between great powers intensifies, a new global order is taking shape. Geopolitical Strategist Thomas Mucha explores the investment implications of a more fragmented and fractious world.

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2024-06-30
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US debt ceiling back in focus: The context matters

US Macro Strategist Mike Medeiros shares his latest thoughts on the US debt-ceiling standoff, including its potential outcomes and implications.

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2024-05-31
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Did the Fed just make a policy error?

Did the Fed just make a policy error? All things considered, Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Jeremy Forster thinks the answer is yes. Learn why and what the implications could be.

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2024-05-31
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Three macro assumptions that could be just plain wrong

Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Brij Khurana offers his non-consensus take on three entrenched, but potentially flawed, beliefs in today's market environment.

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2024-04-30
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US banking system: Three pressing questions

Equity Strategist Andrew Heiskell asks three questions investors ought to ask when it comes to the recent US banking system volatility.

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2024-04-30
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Financial stability versus inflation: The Fed’s balancing act has gotten much trickier

The Fed’s policy calculus has clearly changed somewhat over the past few weeks but the central bank may not be done hiking rates just yet, says Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Jeremy Forster. 

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2024-03-31
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Understanding the US banking sector shake-up

Investment Communications Managers Jitu Naidu and Adam Norman detail recent US bank failures and analyze the implications. (Published 14 March 2023)

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2024-03-31
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On to the next crisis: Glimpsing a post-SVB world

Amid the turmoil in the US banking sector, Global Investment Strategist Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson suggests investors consider pivoting to a “risk-management mode” that favors higher-quality assets. (Published 14 March 2023)

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2024-03-31
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SVB collapse: What are the implications?

Multi-Asset Strategist Supriya Menon shares her latest perspectives on the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank Financial Group (SVB) and the unfolding implications for investors. (Published 14 March 2023)

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2024-03-31
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US debt-ceiling risk: Justifiable jitters?

With markets on high alert around the US debt-ceiling standoff, Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan lays out some possible paths forward and weighs the economic risks.

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2024-02-29
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Debt and dysfunction in Washington: The US hits the ceiling (again)

Global Investment Strategist Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson talks to Macro Strategist Mike Medeiros about the US debt-ceiling showdown and considers its potential investment implications.

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2024-02-29
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February Fed meeting: Chair Powell strikes a more optimistic tone

The Fed just might still be able to engineer the hoped-for "soft landing" but it's not going to be easy, says Fixed Income Analyst Caroline Casavant.

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2023-09-30
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Currency outlook: Nearing the end of USD exceptionalism?

Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Martin Harvey and Investment Communications Manager Jitu Naidu consider the present state of and outlook for the US dollar.

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2023-12-31
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The Fed’s unenviable task for 2023

Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Jeremy Forster offers his forward-looking take on the Fed's comments and latest rate hike coming out of its December meeting. 

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2023-12-31
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A new blueprint for US trade: Building a more resilient, sustainable, and competitive economy

Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan explains how the Biden administration is reshaping US trade policy to reflect today's global realities, including supply-chain challenges, decarbonization, and geopolitical turmoil.

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2023-12-31
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2023: The year of disinflation for the US economy

In the coming year, US Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan expects to see inflation begin to decline, the economy adjust to higher interest rates, and labor markets feel the pain of restrictive Fed policy.

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2023-12-31
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November FOMC meeting: How slow can the Fed go?

Investment Specialist Caroline Casavant shares her takeaways from the November FOMC meeting, including thoughts on the likely pace of further Fed interest-rate hikes.

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2023-01-31
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Can agency MBS bounce back from dismal performance?

Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Brian Conroy and two colleagues weigh in on the mortgage-backed securities (MBS) market in the wake of a very challenging month.

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Quick Take
2023-01-31
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Bank loans: Can issuers overcome higher interest expenses?
The short answer, according to Fixed Income Portfolio Managers Jeff Heuer and David Marshak, is that many can. And, they believe bank loans can outperform many other fixed-income sectors over the next 12 months.
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Quick Take
2023-01-31
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Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
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The Fed’s “lean, leave, then clean” strategy
US inflation could prove "stickier" than many observers think. How might that influence Fed policy into 2023? Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Jeremy Forster opines.
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Quick Take
2022-12-31
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What does an equity market bottom look like?
Applying a historical analysis to today's market, Multi-Asset Portfolio Manager Nick Petrucelli believes US equities have not yet found a near-term bottom.
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Quick Take
2022-11-30
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No more Mr. Nice Guy? Fed Chair Powell talks tough on inflation

Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Brij Khurana offers his latest thoughts on Fed policy following the central bank's recent Jackson Hole meeting.

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Quick Take
2023-09-30
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US/China relations: What next after Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan?
Geopolitical Strategist Thomas Mucha assesses the escalating tension in US/China relations following US Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan.
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Quick Take
2022-11-30
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Why collective investment trusts are gaining traction within DC plans
Growing interest in CITs within the DC space is being driven by lower fees and other benefits — a trend our DC team expects to continue.
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2023-08-31
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Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Investment takeaways from the latest inflation data
With 2022's structural inflation story still very much intact, now may be a particularly opportune time for investors to add real-asset and inflation-sensitive exposures to their portfolios.
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Quick Take
2022-11-30
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Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
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Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Reckoning with recession risk: Why this one may be “pricey”
Client Portfolio Manager Jitu Naidu shares his latest take on the looming risk of a global economic recession and related issues.
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Quick Take
2022-11-30
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Fed rate hikes: A tailwind for bonds?
Global Investment Strategist Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson believes higher-quality, longer-duration bonds may prove resilient even if the Fed keeps raising short-term rates into 2023.
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Quick Take
2022-10-31
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July Fed meeting: Rising inflation vs falling growth
After another rate hike, the Fed must balance moderating growth with mounting inflation. Caroline Casavant opines on how the central bank might navigate this dilemma.
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Quick Take
2022-10-31
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us inflation supply chains to the rescue
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US inflation: Supply chains to the rescue?
Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan shares her inflation outlook, including the prospects for supply-chain normalization, and her views on the market implications.
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Article
2023-07-31
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Credit investing against a slower-growth, higher-inflation backdrop
The significant flattening of the US Treasury yield curve in recent months has some prognosticators calling for an impending US recession. Not so fast, says Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Rob Burn.
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Quick Take
2022-07-31
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Is it too soon to call a “top” in US interest rates?
Are we nearing the top of the 10-year treasury rate?
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Quick Take
2023-05-31
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Five reasons to take a closer look at Brazil
I have published my views on Brazil more than once over the past year (most recently in my November 2021 blog post), but the environment there has changed markedly through the first few months of this year, with COVID-related risks seemingly on the wane and the Russia/Ukraine conflict having driven up commodity prices — so I thought now would be an opportune time to share a fresh perspective on South America’s most populous country.
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Quick Take
2022-07-31
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Global credit: Where do we go from here?
Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Mahmoud El-Shaer explores why 2022 may be a momentous year for global credit and sets out a framework to think through potential investment implications. 2022 promises to be another challenging year for central banks as they attempt to normalise policies in the face of surging inflation, while navigating the growing fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Since 2009, there has essentially been one trade in capital markets: riding a huge wave of central bank liquidity in support of the financial system and the economy, with the G4 central banks alone pumping approximately US$20 trillion into the system via quantitative easing (QE).
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Quick Take
2022-07-31
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Ten more “what if” scenarios for 2022
In his latest Top of Mind session, Multi-Asset Strategist Adam Berger addressed a wide range of what-if scenarios on the minds of our clients. See what he has to say on Russia, China, cryptocurrencies, the IPO market, and many other topics in this brief article.
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Article
2023-02-28
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DC plans: Three timely themes that probably aren’t going away anytime soon
Our DC plan specialists highlight three big-picture investment themes that are not only top of mind for many plan participants in today’s environment, but are also likely to have staying power in the months ahead.
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Article
2023-03-31
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An inside look at today’s municipal market
After a year in which municipal bonds posted respectable returns (Figure 1), many clients have been seeking forward-looking guidance on the market as a whole and (increasingly) on particular sectors of it. Here are my latest thoughts as of this writing on the outlook for the rest of 2022.
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Quick Take
2022-05-31
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How might equity sectors fare when Fed tightening begins?
We look back at how US equities have performed in the months following the beginning of a tightening cycle, as well as how bond yields have tended to behave.
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Quick Take
2022-05-31
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Credit and equity performance around Fed hiking cycles
One of the discussion topics du jour is how the credit and equity markets might react to the US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest-rate hikes that are widely anticipated in the coming months. As is often the case with me, I find it helpful here to refer to past hiking regimes and market performances as a sort of guidepost. The proof’s in the pudding To wit, I examined the historical returns of both US credit (for this purpose, proxied by corporate high-yield bonds) and US equities (represented by the S&P 500 Index) during the six months before the first rate increase of a Fed hiking cycle through the 12 months after said increase.
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Quick Take
2022-05-31
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The critically important national security implications of biotech
Deepening US policy risks in the biotechnology sector have garnered some well-deserved attention from many of my colleagues lately. Given biotechnology’s potential future importance to US policymakers in the context of the ongoing US-China “great-power” competition, I’d like to share my own thoughts on what’s driving the rising geopolitical risk and national security concerns.
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2022-04-30
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Fed watch 2022: Year of the hawk?
With inflation on the rise and all eyes seemingly on the Fed these days, Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Jeremy Forster shares his takeaways from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)'s December 2021 meeting.
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Quick Take
2022-07-29
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