Understanding uncertainty
Although US equity markets have been performing well, we believe investors would be remiss not to take a closer look at many of the reasons uncertainty lingers. Early in 2025, the S&P 500 Index, a proxy for the US equity market, saw a several-week decline, during which value fell as much as 20% at the lowest point. Complicating this dynamic was the April announcement of the most protectionist US trade policies in a century. Since then, those tariffs have been rolled back and renegotiated, and markets have recovered, for the time being, at least.
Tariffs are simply one of many policy-related uncertainties investors have to contend with today. Questions over spending cuts, US deficit expansion, and immigration policies, among others, have exacerbated many investors’ sense of unease. At the same time, other warning signs, such as weakening consumer data (e.g., credit card delinquencies), a cooling labor market, and decelerating earnings revisions, have been emerging.
Sticky inflation is also a prevailing market concern. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) and other central banks have indicated that they will have to contend with inflation despite growth risks. What’s more, geopolitical tensions around the world, including wars, elevated tensions in climate-sensitive equatorial regions, and ongoing great-power competition between the US and China, have helped fuel the engine of uncertainty. Should these dynamics persist or worsen, it’s possible risk assets could come under pressure once again (Figure 1).
