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2023 Global Economic Outlook

Our experts share their global economic outlook on the developments that they think will transform the macroeconomic and geopolitical landscape in 2023 and beyond.

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2023-12-31
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Pivot points: Five portfolio positioning ideas for the new market regime

Multi-Asset Strategist Adam Berger looks at five ways in which the world may be very different in the coming decade and how they could influence the next wave of investment winners.

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2023-12-31
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2023 Investment Strategy Outlook

To help think through the asset allocation outlook and implications for 2023, we offer views from iStrat, our investment strategy and solutions group.

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2023-12-31
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2023 Investment Outlook

As you consider your investment strategy for 2023, our Outlook collection provides you with unique perspectives across the macro environment and all major capital markets, drawing on our global marketplace of ideas more than 800 investors strong.

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2022-12-31
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The allocator’s landscape: Three areas of attention for 2023

Natasha Brook-Walters, Co-Head of Investment Strategy, discusses downside mitigation given the shifting equity/bond correlation, the impact of cyclical and macro volatility, and opportunities to position for long-term change.

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2023-12-31
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Inflation, rates, and volatility: The best defense is a good offense

Insurance Strategist Tim Antonelli shares his latest multi-asset views for insurers, including the need to balance defensive portfolio strategies with continued income and return generation.

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Whitepaper
2023-04-15
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A new economic era: Why inflation, volatility, and cycles are back

Macro Strategist John Butler argues that a seismic global shift is underway that will disrupt the macro dynamics of the past two decades, challenging long-held investment assumptions.

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2023-12-31
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Multi-Asset Outlook — Higher rates for longer: What does it mean for markets?

For central banks, the inflation fight is on, but the policy and market responses will vary in the coming months. Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson and Supriya Menon discuss the implications for equities, bonds, and commodities.

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2023-11-30
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The Fed wants to crush inflation, but at what cost?
Following a higher-than-expected inflation print and the Fed's latest rate hike, Global Investment Strategist Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson considers potential implications for fixed income and equities.
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Quick Take
2022-12-31
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The Fed’s “lean, leave, then clean” strategy
US inflation could prove "stickier" than many observers think. How might that influence Fed policy into 2023? Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Jeremy Forster opines.
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Quick Take
2022-12-31
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The shifting equity/bond correlation: Implications for portfolio construction
Multi-Asset Strategist Nick Samouilhan looks at what's driving the change in the all-important equity/bond relationship and what can be done about it.
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Quick Take
2022-12-31
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Wellington investor survey: Global recession tops investors’ concerns
The latest Wellington investor survey shows that our investment teams are increasingly concerned about the economic cycle, with 45% seeing a global recession over the next 12 months as the most likely outcome.
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Quick Take
2022-11-30
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Investment takeaways from the latest inflation data
With 2022's structural inflation story still very much intact, now may be a particularly opportune time for investors to add real-asset and inflation-sensitive exposures to their portfolios.
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Quick Take
2022-11-30
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Has China’s investment landscape permanently shifted?
Multi-Asset Strategist Adam Berger and Macro Strategist Santiago Millán consider key policy-related questions hanging over the Chinese market and share some near- and long-term investment views.
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Article
2023-08-31
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Positioning for a “pricey” recession scenario
Client Portfolio Manager Jitu Naidu and Fixed Income Strategist Amar Reganti offer portfolio positioning ideas for the potential recession scenario that may lie ahead.
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Quick Take
2022-11-30
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High inflation and slow growth in Europe: How should investors respond?
Multi-Asset Strategist Supriya Menon explores the asset allocation implications of high inflation and slow growth in Europe.
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2023-08-31
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Cash-balance liabilities: A new investment framework
A cash-balance plan is very different from a traditional pension, and the differences can have a major impact on interest-rate sensitivity. With this in mind, we propose a focus on capital preservation, consistent income, and liquidity.
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2023-08-31
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What can history teach us about today's markets? A framework for drawing comparisons
Members of our Investment Strategy Group explain how they identify similarities to past market environments and what their approach is signaling about today's conditions.
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Quick Take
2022-11-30
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Will the Fed send the US economy into a recession?
Multi-Asset Strategist Adam Berger and US Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan consider the broad impact of Fed rate hikes and how asset allocators should respond.
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Article
2023-07-31
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Insurers: Strengthen your core in the second half
Insurance Multi-Asset Strategist Tim Antonelli shares his latest multi-asset insights for global insurers, including his view that core fixed income holdings — US interest rates and investment-grade corporate bonds — should stack up well against most risk assets in the second half of 2022.
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2022-12-31
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Mid-2022 Asset Allocation & Investment Strategy Outlook
We explore the market implications of central bank policies, rising prices, and slowing growth and offer incremental steps to improving a portfolio’s return potential.
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2023-07-31
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Mid-2022 Global Economic Outlook
We believe heightened geopolitical uncertainty, and the new macro environment of deglobalization, higher inflation, greater global cyclicality and volatility will disrupt and drive markets.
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2023-07-31
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Monthly Market Snapshot: May 2022
A monthly update on equity, fixed income, currency, and commodity markets.
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2022-08-15
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Closing the return gap: A new set of “stepping stone” ideas
Multi-Asset Strategist Adam Berger offers incremental, flexible investment ideas that can be combined to help asset owners pursue their goals amid declining capital market return expectations.
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Whitepaper
2023-06-30
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Sticky inflation, weaker growth: A volatile mix
As central bank policy, rising prices, and slowing growth roil the markets, Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson and Supriya Menon explore the implications for equities, bonds, and commodities.
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2022-10-31
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Climate from the allocator's perspective
How do different asset allocators within Wellington incorporate climate change into their investment process as markets, data and regulation continue to evolve?
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Event replay
2023-05-31
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Making the money last: Research insights on the decumulation challenge
Our Investment Strategy team considers the unique challenges of decumulation strategies, including sequencing and longevity risk, and offers thoughts on best practices in portfolio construction, process design, and implementation.
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Quick Take
2023-04-30
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Demystifying decumulation: A practical guide
Investors seeking a sound decumulation strategy must consider a host of variables, including risks that weren’t on the radar when they were accumulating assets. Members of our Investment Strategy team consider the interaction between portfolio withdrawals and specific characteristics of the portfolio’s realized return. They also offer thoughts on successful decumulation strategies, focusing on portfolio construction, process design, and implementation.
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2023-04-30
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Fixed income impact investing: Growth, evolution, opportunity
Members of our fixed income team share their perspectives on the growing need for impact solutions, the expanding opportunity set and the team’s focus on engagement with issuers.
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Article
2022-12-31
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Higher inflation, rising rates: Front and center for insurers
With macro and market complications piling up through the first few months of 2022, Insurance Multi-Asset Strategist Tim Antonelli provides his investment implications for global insurers.
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Whitepaper
2022-10-15
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Nearing the finish line: Ideas on end-state investing for corporate DB plans
As corporate plans approach their fully funded “end state,” new goals will need to be set. Members of our LDI team share their research on this transition and the required realignment of asset allocation strategies, including changes in return-seeking and liability-hedging portfolios and key liquidity considerations.
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Article
2023-04-30
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Russia/Ukraine: Transformational, not transitory
Four Wellington thought leaders share their distinct individual perspectives on the short- and longer-term implications of the tragic watershed conflict between Russia and Ukraine: Geopolitical Strategist Thomas Mucha on the geopolitical backdrop; Macro Strategist John Butler on what it means for Europe; Macro Strategist Santiago Millán on the role of China; and Portfolio Manager David Chang on the commodities markets.
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2022-11-30
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What does the Ukraine invasion mean for China?
Macro Strategist Santiago Millán argues that the scale and breadth of the sanctions on Russia have increased the uncertainty of investing in China across multiple dimensions. He explores the continued decoupling of China and the West.
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2022-06-30
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China is not Russia: Reasons to stay invested
Equity Portfolio Manager Greg Mattiko challenges investors to look at actions rather than conjecture when considering reduced exposure to China.
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2023-03-31
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War and markets: What's the connection?
Amid the geopolitical turmoil and tragic humanitarian fallout of the Russia/Ukraine crisis, many investors are naturally also concerned about the negative effects the escalating conflict could have on their portfolios. With that in mind, I thought I’d provide a quick snapshot of the impacts that past wars have tended to have on asset prices.
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2023-03-31
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War in Ukraine: Five observations on recent developments
Macro Strategist Gillian Edgeworth assesses recent developments in the escalating Russia/Ukraine conflict and highlights five key implications.
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2023-03-31
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Russia/Ukraine conflict: Five things to watch closely
Amid the ongoing turmoil of the Russia/Ukraine crisis, Global Investment Strategist Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson highlights five key areas she thinks investors should keep a watchful eye on in the weeks ahead.
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2023-03-31
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Russia/Ukraine conflict: What investors need to know
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent shockwaves around the world and has triggered sweeping punitive political and economic policy responses from the US and Europe, with the potential to usher in another cold war era in Russia’s relations with the West. Beyond the tragic humanitarian toll, this watershed event is likely to have profound geopolitical, economic and asset allocation implications. We’ve assembled this collection of timely insights, which we’ll update frequently given the fluidity of the situation, to help investors navigate these unprecedented times.
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2023-02-03
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Geopolitical observations on Ukraine
Geopolitical Strategist Thomas Mucha integrates his observations with those of his senior-level military, intelligence and diplomatic contacts to offer insights on the potential consequences of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
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2023-03-31
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Preserving funded-ratio stability in volatile markets
Faced with extreme market volatility in the early months of 2022, what can corporate DB plan sponsors do to potentially provide stability in their portfolios while still pursuing longer-term funding aspirations? Multi-Asset Strategist Amy Trainor offers thoughts on rerisking, hedge ratios, and liability-hedging and return-seeking allocations.
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2023-03-31
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For markets, it’s complicated
As markets grapple with the war in Ukraine, inflation worries, and a host of other issues, Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson and Daniel Cook offer their thoughts on the investment implications for equities, commodities, and fixed income.
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2022-10-31
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Russian invasion of Ukraine: Looking through the newsflow
Looking beyond the upsetting newsflow, what does the unfolding Ukrainian tragedy mean for investors? Director of Investment Strategy Natasha Brook-Walters shares three different Wellington perspectives.
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2023-02-28
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Can Ukraine’s economy withstand another conflict with Russia?
Macro Strategist Gillian Edgeworth assesses Ukraine’s outlook in the face of renewed conflict with Russia and finds that under most scenarios Ukraine's macro-economic prospects may be less negative than perhaps is assumed.
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2023-02-28
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Ukraine crisis: Understanding the broader picture
I believe the current standoff between Russia and the West over Ukraine is part of a global geopolitical pattern of “great-power” competition. As I explore in my 2022 Outlook, the geopolitical backdrop is becoming increasingly unpredictable and dangerous. This shift is driven primarily by US-China rivalry but also other structural factors such as domestic political polarization, and longer term, the growing impact of climate change on national security. In this new geopolitical reality, I think great powers will be more likely to act out of regional and global self-interest, especially in relation to geostrategic issues they consider core to national security. For Russia, Ukraine is such a critical security consideration and part of its wider strong geostrategic desire for cultivating “buffer states.” Accordingly, the Russian invasion threat to Ukraine is real, structural, and rooted in this emerging world order.
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Quick Take
2022-04-30
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What if…? Contemplating five big questions for 2022
Could there be policy, inflation, or market surprises in 2022? Multi-Asset Strategist Adam Berger weighs the possibilities and the portfolio implications.
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2023-02-28
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Hedging climate risk: The best defense is a good offense
Climate risks have the potential to create a long-term return drag on investment portfolios. We suggest a straightforward approach to hedging the deleterious effects of climate change.
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2023-02-28
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Monthly Market Snapshot: January 2022
A monthly update on equity, fixed income, currency, and commodity markets.
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2022-07-15
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Monthly Market Snapshot: December 2021
A monthly update on equity, fixed income, currency, and commodity markets.
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2022-07-15
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Integrating climate change into capital market assumptions: our approach and findings
Members of our Investment Strategy team explain how they are incorporating climate-related inputs, including physical and transition risks, into their capital market assumptions and outline the impact of these changes at the asset-class level.
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2023-01-31
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Financial Market Review: Fourth quarter 2021
A quarterly review of results in the global equity, fixed income, currency, and commodity markets.
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2022-07-15
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Three transition year themes — inflation, capital, ESG
Insurance Multi-Asset Strategist Tim Antonelli believes 2022 could be a year of transition for the global insurance industry, with the three big themes of inflation, capital, and ESG likely to play prominent roles in many insurers’ strategic planning and decisions.
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Whitepaper
2022-12-01
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Setting ROAs for 2022: A guide for US corporate and public plans
How are pension plans adjusting their ROA assumptions? How do those assumptions line up with our long-term capital market assumptions? Find out in this annual update.
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2022-10-31
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Five investment essentials for a post-pandemic world
As the world “gets back to business” in 2022, a cautiously optimistic outlook seems warranted. For investors, it may be a year to think thematically.
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2022-11-30
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Changing “weather” patterns in alternatives and climate
Multi-Asset Strategist Adam Berger offers a forecast on the future of alternative and climate-related investing, with insights on manager selection, public/private allocations, climate-aware capital market assumptions, and a range of other topics.
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2022-11-30
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2022 Multi-Asset Outlook
In our 2022 Asset Allocation Outlook, we expect markets to focus on central bank efforts to tame inflation look at 5 post-pandemic essentials for 2022.
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2022-12-31
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Strong but slowing growth: A tale of two narratives
Markets appear to be caught between two hard-to-reconcile narratives: The pace of economic growth looks poised to slow, but the level of growth is likely to stay relatively strong. Multi-Asset Insurance Strategist Tim Antonelli and Investment Strategy Analyst Daniel Cook offer insights for global insurers at this point in the cycle.
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Whitepaper
2022-01-31
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With growth and policy, which matters more: Level or change?
While macro risks may be elevated somewhat, Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson and Daniel Cook still see opportunities, including in European equities and commodities. They also argue for being selective in credit while maintaining fixed income for diversification.
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2022-03-31
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Investing for the long term (in a short-term world)
With short-term behavior evident across the financial landscape, Multi-Asset Strategist Adam Berger explores the intuitive and quantifiable advantages of being more long term, and he offers seven habits that can help asset owners cultivate a long-term mindset.
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2022-09-30
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The future of retirement: Aging in 2050
We explore the long-term investment trends associated with global aging through the story of Fang, a fictional Chinese retiree living in 2050.
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2022-09-30
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Update on key sustainability initiatives
We highlight progress on key sustainability initiatives: interim targets for our net-zero commitment, inclusion of location data in climate disclosures, and expanding our compliance with SFDR.
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2021-12-31
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Building climate resilience with strategic asset allocation framework
Driving volatility and dispersion, climate change could have lasting effects on the risk and return profile of a strategic asset allocation plan. We suggest allocators factor climate change into their structural planning today, and we propose a climate-aware allocation framework to help them do so.
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2022-07-31
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Using climate science to uncover investment opportunities
Investors are increasingly aware of the risks posed by climate change, but perhaps less so of the unexpected opportunities that climate science can help uncover.
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2022-07-31
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Update on key sustainability initiatives
We highlight progress on key sustainability initiatives: interim targets for our net-zero commitment, inclusion of location data in climate disclosures, and expanding our compliance with SFDR.
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2021-12-31
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A source-based approach to managing inflation risk
Multi-Asset Strategists Nick Samouilhan and Adam Berger present a source-based investment “playbook” that asset allocators can follow as they seek to neutralize the looming threat of higher inflation.
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Article
2022-06-30
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Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Beyond bitcoin: Eight essential blockchain insights
We look beyond bitcoin to explore eight exciting impacts and opportunities from blockchain technology.
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Article
2022-05-31
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Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
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Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
The “EM-ification” of DMs
Global Investment Strategist Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson believes that many developed market countries are beginning to resemble their emerging market counterparts in certain ways. Here are some of her findings, along with possible paths forward and potential investment implications.
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Article
2022-06-30
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Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
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Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
ESG research playbook: Health care
Wellington has established frameworks — what we call “research playbooks” — for evaluating companies within each sector based on key ESG criteria. ESG Analyst Lindsay Blitstein looks at the health care sector here.
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Quick Take
2022-04-30
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