Mid-2021 Investment Outlook
As you look ahead to the second half of 2021, we invite you to explore actionable insights and investment trends across all major asset classes curated from our marketplace of ideas — more than 800 investors strong.
Views expressed are those of the authors and are subject to change. Other teams may hold different views and make different investment decisions. The value of your investment may become worth more or less than at the time of original investment. While any third-party data used is considered reliable, its accuracy is not guaranteed. For professional or institutional investors only.
Encouraged by vaccination progress and policy support, members of our multi-asset strategist team remain confident in their pro-risk stance as they look ahead to the second half of 2021. Yet they are keeping an eye out for inflation concerns, potential spikes in interest rates, new COVID lockdowns, and policy mistakes. Strategists on our macro team explore the expansion-sustaining potential of built-up savings among higher-income earners, the possibility of greater country differentiation given varying inflation tolerances, and the game-changing potential of climate risk.
Within equity, members of our fundamental factor team believe the setup for defensive factors is as attractive as it’s been in over a decade, while some of our leading technology investors highlight disruptive themes across multiple sectors. EM equity and fixed income investors explore implications of higher inflation in these markets. Our fixed income team outlines a new approach to building a more resilient fixed income exposure amid structural changes that create dislocation in these markets.
NEW Our alternatives experts highlight how structural market shifts and disruption across many sectors have created opportunities for allocators as they look ahead to the second half of 2021.
Watch for thematic insights and practical guidance on net-zero commitments and tools from members of our ESG research and sustainable investing team (publishing August 5).
Mid-2021 Alternatives Outlook
2021 Alternatives Annual Meeting highlights
This video offers a quick overview of top-of-mind topics for our alternatives investors, including credit market dislocations and cryptocurrencies.
Why fragility is the new reality for the stock market
Gordy Lawrence & Brian Hughes explain the precarious equilibrium in liquidity supply/demand and what it may mean for portfolio construction and investment strategy.
Mission critical: the vital role of alternatives in pursuing investment success
Cara Lafond considers three alternatives ideas for the current environment, including private equity vintages that coincide with market downturns.
Bridging the gap in credit portfolios with a long/short strategy
Chris Perret and Vivian Bi argue that long/short credit strategies could help round out a portfolio of traditional and private credit investments.
Decarbonization and the future of energy sector investing
Eugene Khmelnik looks at what will drive the outcomes and the potential advantages of a long/short investment approach in an evolving energy universe.
Mid-2021 Equity Outlook
The fundamental improvement in defensive equity factors
Katrina Price and Gregg Thomas argue that, in hindsight, it is not surprising that defensive equity factors fared poorly during the 2020 drawdown and subsequent rebound — given the unique fundamentals at the time. But looking ahead, they see a potentially attractive entry point for asset allocators.
Widespread tech innovation: don’t miss the forest for the really big tree
Leading technology investors from across our equity platform explore the innovations driving a multi-decade journey of disruption and highlight the importance of in-depth research to capturing this opportunity.
Mid-2021 Fixed Income Outlook
EM inflation has arrived, but will it stick around?
Emerging markets inflation has been top of mind for many investors lately. Gillian Edgeworth, Jamie Rice, and Michael Henry consider the outlook going forward and potential market implications.
Why it’s time to rethink fixed income
Emily Bannister and Rich Gilmartin believe 2021 could mark a transition to a new fixed income reality wrought by ongoing structural changes, possibly leading to more frequent dislocations across market sectors. They explore the potential impact of changing consumer behavior, improved coordination of fiscal and monetary policy, and the no-rules world of deglobalization.
Four steps to building a resilient fixed income allocation
Emily Bannister and Rich Gilmartin outline steps investors can take to build a new fixed income allocation that is equal to today’s challenges and opportunities.
Mid-2021 Multi-Asset Outlook
Inflation is here: How long, how strong?
Weighing the potential for inflation pressures to threaten the recovery, Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson and Daniel Cook offer their views on the second half of 2021, including what makes European, EM, and value equities attractive.
An allocator’s agenda for a reflating world
Nick Samouilhan, Andrew Sharp-Paul, and Matthew Bullock focus on some suggested ”to-do” items for asset allocators.
Mid-2021 Global Economic Outlook
How the US savings glut could boost the services economy and sustain the expansion
Higher-income earners have pushed the savings rate to heights not seen since World War II, and Juhi Dhawan sees reason to believe that once they begin spending, the economy could benefit for years to come.
What does “good” versus “bad” inflation really mean?
John Butler explains why changes to the economic environment mean the pandemic response may be the start of a new era in monetary policy.
Complex catastrophe: Climate change as a national security threat
Climate change has begun to shape domestic and foreign policy and is increasingly recognized as a threat to national security. Thomas Mucha thinks climate’s macro, market, and geopolitical implications will be significant.
2021 Annual Outlook collection
For additional perspectives on our expectations for 2021, please visit our 2021 Investment Outlook collection published in late 2020.