- Commodities Portfolio Manager
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The views expressed are those of the authors at the time of writing. Other teams may hold different views and make different investment decisions. The value of your investment may become worth more or less than at the time of original investment. While any third-party data used is considered reliable, its accuracy is not guaranteed. For professional, institutional, or accredited investors only.
Our experts believe the global economic cycle is slowing and that the slowdown may gather momentum. Despite signs of falling inflation, we don’t think policy is tight enough to achieve sustainable target inflation levels. Yet, central banks seem to have little appetite to raise rates further, because they fear recession more than above-target inflation. Different choices by policymakers against these trade-offs could lead countries down diverging growth paths, creating opportunities for active managers. In this collection, we explore opportunities and risks created by intensifying macro regime change and continued geopolitical uncertainty; we dive into macro expectations for the US; we reflect on the macro implications of two megatrends that could drive results for many years to come: generative AI and the energy transition; and we offer our near-, medium-, and long-term ideas on commodities.
2024: A year of intensifying macro regime change?
John Butler and Eoin O’Callaghan explore why 2024 could be a year of intensifying macro regime change and what it means for investors.
The intersection of geopolitics and deglobalization
The geopolitical landscape is likely to remain complex and unpredictable throughout 2024. What are the key risks to watch out for and what are the implications for investors?
The US economy in 2024: A tale of transition
Our US macro expert sees changes in consumer and investment spending in the coming year, and highlights what she'll be watching for in terms of policy, politics, and profit margins.
Macro implications of the AI revolution: is the market right?
Macro Strategist John Butler sets out an initial framework to help answer key questions about the potential macro impact of artificial intelligence.
How geopolitics and the energy transition may reshape global trade
We explore the potential near- and longer-term market effects of deteriorating US/China relations, coupled with the shift toward a low-carbon economy.
Commodities: Top ideas and evolving opportunities
To help clients plan for the coming year, our commodities experts share their top near-term, medium-term, and long-term investment ideas.