Inflation

Showing of Insights Posts
Is the commodities rally built to last?
Commodities were the only major asset class that performed well in the first half of 2022. Multi-Asset Strategist Adam Berger and Commodities Portfolio Manager David Chang consider whether there’s more upside from here.
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Article
2023-08-31
Will the Fed send the US economy into a recession?
Multi-Asset Strategist Adam Berger and US Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan consider the broad impact of Fed rate hikes and how asset allocators should respond.
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Article
2023-07-31
Fed rate hikes: A tailwind for bonds?
Global Investment Strategist Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson believes higher-quality, longer-duration bonds may prove resilient even if the Fed keeps raising short-term rates into 2023.
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Quick Take
2022-10-31
July Fed meeting: Rising inflation vs falling growth
After another rate hike, the Fed must balance moderating growth with mounting inflation. Caroline Casavant opines on how the central bank might navigate this dilemma.
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Quick Take
2022-10-31
What next for the euro area after the ECB’s historic hike?
Eoin O'Callaghan and Marco Giordano explore the ECB’s likely next steps and the potential future path of inflation and growth in the euro area.
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Article
2023-07-05
Insurers: Strengthen your core in the second half
Insurance Multi-Asset Strategist Tim Antonelli shares his latest multi-asset insights for global insurers, including his view that core fixed income holdings — US interest rates and investment-grade corporate bonds — should stack up well against most risk assets in the second half of 2022.
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Article
2022-12-31
Mid-2022 Inflation Outlook
We explore the current inflation environment's significant impacts on asset markets, anticipated relief in supply-chain pressures, and opportunities in commodities and enduring assets.
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Article
2023-07-31
US inflation: Supply chains to the rescue?
Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan shares her inflation outlook, including the prospects for supply-chain normalization, and her views on the market implications.
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Article
2023-07-31
Credit investing against a slower-growth, higher-inflation backdrop
The significant flattening of the US Treasury yield curve in recent months has some prognosticators calling for an impending US recession. Not so fast, says Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Rob Burn.
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Quick Take
2022-07-31
Mid-2022 Asset Allocation & Investment Strategy Outlook
We explore the market implications of central bank policies, rising prices, and slowing growth and offer incremental steps to improving a portfolio’s return potential.
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Article
2023-07-31
Mid-2022 Global Economic Outlook
We believe heightened geopolitical uncertainty, and the new macro environment of deglobalization, higher inflation, greater global cyclicality and volatility will disrupt and drive markets.
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Article
2023-07-31
Mid-2022 Asset Class Outlook
We offer perspectives on growth and value equities and explore ideas for shoring up your fixed income flank amid the evolving economic and market environment.
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Article
2023-07-31
Sticky inflation, weaker growth: A volatile mix
As central bank policy, rising prices, and slowing growth roil the markets, Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson and Supriya Menon explore the implications for equities, bonds, and commodities.
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Article
2022-10-31
A transition year for agency MBS?
Following a challenging period for agency MBS, members of our securitized team now see attractive opportunities in the space and believe actively managed strategies may be the best way for many investors to capitalize.
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Quick Take
2022-07-31
Timely musings on Fed policy and inflation
With rising inflation and interest rates dominating the financial headlines in recent weeks, I have been fielding a flurry of colleague and client questions about the likely future trajectory of US monetary policy. While I don’t claim to have all the answers, especially with so many “known unknowns” as of this writing, here are my latest thoughts.
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Quick Take
2022-08-30
US inflation risk, angry bondholders, and silver linings
Here are quick thoughts on some common questions I’ve been asked recently about Fed policy, yields, the US dollar, and financial markets.
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Quick Take
2022-08-31
Helping European investors navigate inflation fears
The recent shift to a higher inflation regime, with resulting expectations of tighter monetary policy and rising interest rates, presents a material challenge for European fixed income investors. Against this backdrop, Investment Analyst Will Prentis and Investment Director Tobias Ripka believe investment flexibility is key.
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Quick Take
2022-07-31
Global convertibles: Poised to benefit from five structural tailwinds
Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Michael Barry and Investment Specialist Raina Dunkelberger believe global convertible bonds are likely to outperform other fixed income sectors over an investment time horizon of approximately two to three years. Learn why.
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Quick take
2022-07-31
Higher inflation, rising rates: Front and center for insurers
With macro and market complications piling up through the first few months of 2022, Insurance Multi-Asset Strategist Tim Antonelli provides his investment implications for global insurers.
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Article
2022-10-15
Russia/Ukraine: Transformational, not transitory
Four Wellington thought leaders share their distinct individual perspectives on the short- and longer-term implications of the tragic watershed conflict between Russia and Ukraine: Geopolitical Strategist Thomas Mucha on the geopolitical backdrop; Macro Strategist John Butler on what it means for Europe; Macro Strategist Santiago Millán on the role of China; and Portfolio Manager David Chang on the commodities markets.
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Article
2022-11-30
Four potentially powerful tailwinds for the securitized sector
In his latest Top of Mind session, Multi-Asset Strategist Adam Berger addressed a wide range of what-if scenarios on the minds of our clients. See what he has to say on Russia, China, cryptocurrencies, the IPO market, and many other topics in this brief article.
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Quick Take
2022-06-30
China is not Russia: Reasons to stay invested
Equity Portfolio Manager Greg Mattiko challenges investors to look at actions rather than conjecture when considering reduced exposure to China.
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Article
2023-03-31
War in Ukraine: Five observations on recent developments
Macro Strategist Gillian Edgeworth assesses recent developments in the escalating Russia/Ukraine conflict and highlights five key implications.
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Article
2023-03-31
Ten more “what if” scenarios for 2022
In his latest Top of Mind session, Multi-Asset Strategist Adam Berger addressed a wide range of what-if scenarios on the minds of our clients. See what he has to say on Russia, China, cryptocurrencies, the IPO market, and many other topics in this brief article.
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Article
2023-02-28
Russia/Ukraine conflict: Five things to watch closely
Amid the ongoing turmoil of the Russia/Ukraine crisis, Global Investment Strategist Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson highlights five key areas she thinks investors should keep a watchful eye on in the weeks ahead.
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Article
2023-03-31
For markets, it’s complicated
As markets grapple with the war in Ukraine, inflation worries, and a host of other issues, Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson and Daniel Cook offer their thoughts on the investment implications for equities, commodities, and fixed income.
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Article
2022-10-31
EM local debt: Forgotten but not forsaken
The emerging markets (EM) local debt sector (as measured by the JP Morgan Government Bond Index – Emerging Markets Global Diversified) just posted its worst calendar-year performance since 2013, returning -8.75% against the headwind of higher EM local interest rates. The underlying culprit? EM inflation surprised to the upside in 2021, forcing a number of EM central banks to raise their policy interest rates in an effort to curb the impact.
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Quick Take
2022-09-30
Commodities in 2022: Opportunities amid inflation
Inflation is quickly becoming top of mind for many as everything from ice cream to cars gets more expensive. Investors are beginning to recognize that we’re experiencing the highest inflation levels in 40 years. In our view, we may be entering a market that could be quite favorable for inflation-hedging assets broadly and commodities, in particular. Critically, this environment is coming on the heels of a decade or more of institutions deallocating from inflation-sensitive areas.
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Quick Take
2022-08-31
What if…? Contemplating five big questions for 2022
Could there be policy, inflation, or market surprises in 2022? Multi-Asset Strategist Adam Berger weighs the possibilities and the portfolio implications.
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ARTICLE
2023-02-28
Euro area: Challenging long-held assumptions
We believe 2022 will be the year when macroeconomic and political developments challenge two deep-rooted misperceptions about the euro area:
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Quick Take
2022-04-30
How to reposition portfolios for inflation with listed infrastructure
With the risk of structurally higher inflation increasing, Tom Levering and Ken Baumgartner assess whether allocating to listed infrastructure may help mitigate the impact of inflation.
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ARTICLE
2023-01-31
Playing inflation defense with fixed income in 2022
For fixed income investors who are worried about the double threat of higher inflation and rising rates, there are strategies that may help insulate a bond portfolio. Fixed Income Investment Director Amar Reganti and Investment Specialist Jonathan Tan offer up some suggestions.
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Article
2022-02-28
Integrating climate change into capital market assumptions: our approach and findings
Members of our Investment Strategy team explain how they are incorporating climate-related inputs, including physical and transition risks, into their capital market assumptions and outline the impact of these changes at the asset-class level.
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Article
2023-01-31
Reflation or stagflation? Assessing the investment outlook for 2022
Are investors right to fear a return of stagflation? What areas of portfolios may need repositioning? And how do they think about inflation and climate risk?
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Replay
2022-12-31
2022 Fixed Income Outlook
Our fixed income outlook for 2022, examines our views on inflation and interest rates and the role central banks will play in the coming year.
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Article
2022-11-15
Three transition year themes — inflation, capital, ESG
Insurance Multi-Asset Strategist Tim Antonelli believes 2022 could be a year of transition for the global insurance industry, with the three big themes of inflation, capital, and ESG likely to play prominent roles in many insurers’ strategic planning and decisions.
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Article
2022-12-01
Seven reasons Japanese equities are worth another look
Investment Strategy Analysts Steven Ye and Daniel Cook make their case for Japanese equities, based on valuations, the “benefits” of inflation, the potential for event-driven outperformance, and other factors that may be underappreciated by the market.
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Quick Take
2022-09-30
Fed watch 2022: Year of the hawk?
With inflation on the rise and all eyes seemingly on the Fed these days, Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Jeremy Forster shares his takeaways from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)'s December 2021 meeting.
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Quick Take
2022-07-29
2022 Global Economic Outlook
Our 2022 economic outlook describes the forces we believe will shape macro & market events, including significant inflationary and geopolitical risks.
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Article
2022-11-30
2022 Multi-Asset Outlook
In our 2022 Asset Allocation Outlook, we expect markets to focus on central bank efforts to tame inflation look at 5 post-pandemic essentials for 2022.
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Article
2022-12-31
A credit strategy designed for all seasons
Today’s fixed income allocators face a variety of challenges. Against this backdrop, Multi-Asset Strategist Cara Lafond and Investment Directors Amar Reganti, Chris Perret, and Andrew Bayerl make the case for having an “all-weather” credit portfolio composed of carefully chosen building blocks.
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Article
2022-11-15
Five investment essentials for a post-pandemic world
As the world “gets back to business” in 2022, a cautiously optimistic outlook seems warranted. For investors, it may be a year to think thematically.
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Article
2022-11-30
After the inflection point: How the climate challenge will transform the global economy
The decarbonization commitments of countries around the world will fundamentally reshape the global economy. Members of our Central Macro Team highlight their research findings, from the effects on growth and the cost of capital to the potential for geopolitical conflict and higher inflation.
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Article
2022-10-31
Five reasons to think US inflation has staying power
After a lengthy absence, inflation has finally returned to the US, but for how long depends on who you ask. Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Brij Khurana offers his view on why US inflation may prove to be more enduring than many observers think.
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Quick Take
2022-08-31
A revival in US investment spending: Implications of the Biden infrastructure plan
US Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan discusses six key themes in the US infrastructure proposals, from shovel-ready projects to modernization of the power grid, and considers the broad economic impact and potential for unintended consequences.
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Article
2022-08-31
EM inflation has arrived, but will it stick around?
Emerging markets inflation has been top of mind for many investors lately. Macro Strategist Gillian Edgeworth, Equity Portfolio Manager Jamie Rice, and Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Michael Henry consider the outlook going forward and potential market implications.
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Article
2022-07-29
A source-based approach to managing inflation risk
Multi-Asset Strategists Nick Samouilhan and Adam Berger present a source-based investment “playbook” that asset allocators can follow as they seek to neutralize the looming threat of higher inflation.
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Article
2022-06-30
A new inflationary regime: Why the next decade could look different from the last
We explore why the risk of structurally higher inflation may be the highest it has been in decades and profile the key investment implications this presents.
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Article
2022-01-31