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The views expressed are those of the authors at the time of writing. Other teams may hold different views and make different investment decisions. The value of your investment may become worth more or less than at the time of original investment. While any third-party data used is considered reliable, its accuracy is not guaranteed. For professional, institutional, or accredited investors only.
Annual message from our CEO: At a crossroadsContinue reading
Trends and transformation distilled: Our 2024 outlook in briefContinue reading
No matter what 2024 has in store, we believe a combination of active management, independent research, and agility are the keys to delivering alpha for our clients.
Global Economic Outlook
Macro Strategists John Butler and Eoin O’Callaghan believe 2024 may be a year of intensifying macro regime change. In his exploration of key geopolitical risks and likely implications for investors, Geopolitical Strategist Thomas Mucha argues that we find ourselves in the most complex, dangerous, and unpredictable geopolitical environment in decades. Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan expects changes in US consumer and investment spending in the coming year, and highlights what she'll be watching for in terms of policy, politics, and profit margins. To help investors answer key questions about the potential macro impact of artificial intelligence, Macro Strategist John Butler sets out an initial framework. Macro Strategist Santiago Millán explores how the combination of shifting geopolitics and the energy transition could significantly reshape global trade . Commodities team members David Chang, Elise Backman, and Joy Perry maintain that commodities offer a compelling structural investment opportunity, owing to low inventories, attractive roll yields, mid-single-digit collateral returns, and rising production costs.
Alternative Investment Outlook
As investors wrestle with the economic unknowns heading into 2024, Multi-Asset Strategists Nick Samouilhan and Adam Berger argue for putting the versatility of alternative investments to work in pursuing more attractive returns, adding diversification, or mitigating risk. In their outlook for 2024, private credit experts Ryan Lewis, Emeka Onukwugha, and Elisabeth Perenick explore three pivotal themes they believe are likely to create opportunities in the year ahead: the continued rise of nonbank lenders, shifting allocations amid a decline in private credit fundraising, and the increasing importance of covenant discipline. Michael Carmen and Mark Watson of our private investment team see a brighter outlook for venture capital. Just as privates trailed the public market correction in 2022, they should follow its recovery, with a lag. They are optimistic about cycle-tested private managers that have weathered this most recent storm.
Sustainable Investment Outlook
Head of Sustainable Investment Wendy Cromwell posits that global supply chains will continue to be a key area of focus for governments and investors alike in 2024. She believes that policymakers, investors, and issuers lack sufficient understanding of cross-company linkages and, as a result, may be unable to pinpoint supply chains’ weakest points. Greater transparency on these interconnections should enable investors to identify risks and opportunities more clearly. Wendy highlights continued research on energy transition, biodiversity, and modern slavery, and she previews responsible AI as an emerging research topic, particularly in relation to cybersecurity.
Bond Market Outlook
In their 2024 rates outlook, Fixed Income Strategist Amar Reganti and Investment Director Marco Giordano investigate the treacherous trade-off faced by central banks in balancing the potential for sustained above-target inflation against the desire for a soft landing and continued economic growth. They explore what this dynamic might mean for investors in the year ahead. Despite the risks posed by uncertainty about rates and growth, Fixed Income Portfolio Managers Campe Goodman and Rob Burn see potential opportunities in higher-yielding credit sectors through issuer-level investment ideas. They see upside potential from earning today’s historically high yields and urge investors to be ready to take advantage of possible credit market dislocations should volatility increase.
Equity Market Outlook
Equity Strategist Andy Heiskell believes the risk/reward picture is relatively balanced in 2024, with more macro- and rate-sensitive sectors and regions potentially among the most attractive investments for equity investors. He reviews regional differences, noting opportunities and risks amid the dislocations created by continued global macro regime shifts, and reflects on what a new investment environment could mean for global equity investors in 2024 and beyond.
Multi-Asset Market Outlook
In this chapter, our multi-asset experts explore how investors can prepare for the opportunities and challenges in 2024. Natasha Brook-Walters, co-head of Wellington’s Investment Strategy and Solutions Group (iStrat), discusses three themes that are top of mind for the team when speaking with clients about their portfolio positioning in 2024 and beyond. Multi-Asset Strategists Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson and Supriya Menon, and Investment Strategy Analyst Alex King provide insights on the economic and market forces that they think they will influence portfolios in the year ahead and share their latest asset class views.