Bonds in brief: making sense of the macro — March issue
What's driving global bond markets and what are the investment implications? Read the latest "Bonds in brief" for Wellington Investment Director Marco Giordano's monthly assessment of risks and opportunities within bond markets.
Weekly Market Update
What do you need to know about the markets this week? Tune in to Paul Skinner's weekly market update for the lowdown on where the markets are and what investors should keep their eye on this week.
Battle for the supply side of the economy: US election implications
Starkly different policy agendas from Biden and Trump are examined in terms of how they may affect the supply side of the US economy.
Four questions for investors after Japan’s historic hike
With the Bank of Japan having finally moved out of negative rates, Macro Strategist John Butler identifies the four key questions he believes investors should focus on.
Do fundamentals support a risk-on tilt?
Surprisingly strong economic growth, declining inflation, easy financial conditions — can it get any better for markets? Members of our Investment Strategy & Solutions Group offer their outlook, including their latest views on equities, bonds, and commodities.
FOMC: Stable policy amid market volatility
The Fed is holding steady amid market turmoil. See our quick notes on the FOMC's March policy statement, forecasts, and the Fed chair's press conference.
Agency MBS key questions for 2024
Is there room for mortgage spreads to tighten further? Brian Conroy and Joseph Marvan examine this and seven other questions that will be significant for the agency MBS market in 2024.
Is there opportunity for high yield in today’s new economic era?
Is there opportunity for high yield in today’s new economic era? Portfolio Manager Konstantin Leidman explores.
The Trump/Biden rematch: Market implications of unprecedented policy divergence
Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan discusses six key areas of policy debate in this year's US election that she expects will matter most to markets, from the tax and spending plans to trade and geopolitics.
Is the US economy really that different since COVID?
US economists have been touting the resilience of the post-COVID economic rebound. Brij Khurana dissects several key economic indicators to see what's really changed since 2019.
How to nurture a growth mindset in a higher-yielding landscape
In a higher-yield world, can fixed income deliver meaningful growth? John Mullins, Supriya Menon and Alex King explore how high-yield bonds may offer a powerful opportunity for growth - as well as a cushion against uncertainty.
Income: the hard worker in your portfolio deserves more credit
Income from cash is good but income from bonds is better. In a less certain macro environment, Alex King, Supriya Menon and John Mullins think the case for income only gets stronger. How can investors make the most of opportunities?
Adopt a new vantage point for diversifying your portfolio
Supriya Menon, Alex King and John Mullins explore why a diversified mixed of fixed income exposure is a key component of a nuanced approach to diversification in today's cyclical macro regime.
Bonds in brief: making sense of the macro - February issue
What's driving global bond markets and what are the investment implications? Read February's "Bonds in brief" for Wellington Investment Director Marco Giordano's monthly assessment.
Evaluating labelled bonds: a robust framework is key
Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Campe Goodman and Investment Specialist Will Prentis explain why they believe a robust framework for analysing labelled, or sustainable, debt can help to generate real-world impact.
How to reposition for a new economic era?
In this short video, Macro Strategist John Butler outlines the key features of the new economic era we are now entering.
Back to the future: a new economic era
Macro Strategist John Butler explores why he believes the old macroeconomic model is broken and how best to navigate a new era of investing.
5 reasons to be active in fixed income
Actively managed fixed income portfolios have several distinct advantages over passive approaches.
Why high-yield investors should keep a close eye on the default cycle
A peak in defaults may not be far off. What does this mean for investors considering a move to high yield?
Managing currency exposure in multi-asset portfolios: how to weigh the trade-offs and impact
Nick Samouilhan, Head of Multi-Asset Strategy – APAC, evaluates the trade-offs of different currency hedging approaches and offers a novel framework for gauging their potential portfolio impact.
Monthly Market Snapshot — January 2024
A monthly update on equity, fixed income, currency, and commodity markets.
Too much focus on Fed, not enough on fiscal
Current US fiscal and monetary policy stances argue for risk taking in fixed income.
Top 5 fixed income ideas for 2024
With central banks set to pivot to accommodative policy, and elevated yields still prevailing, we think fixed income offers compelling opportunities. Here we share our top five ideas.
Bonds in brief: making sense of the macro - January issue
What's driving global bond markets and what are the investment implications? Read January's "Bonds in brief" for Wellington Investment Director Marco Giordano's monthly assessment.
CLOs: 4 hot topics
Bank demand, net supply, the cycle for broadly syndicated loans, and loan fundamentals will be front and center for CLO investors in 2024.
Three things I’m excited about in 2024
2023 was an eventful year for markets, with plenty of excitement, challenges and opportunities for fixed income investors. We believe our Global Impact Bond portfolio managers navigated them successfully.
Top of Mind: The allocator’s checklist for 2024 and beyond
Head of Multi-Asset Strategy Adam Berger offers near- and longer-term ideas for allocators, including thoughts on areas where capital is scarce, alternatives may be attractive, and risks may bear watching.
Emerging markets debt: resilience in the face of adversity
Our expert discusses why she is positive on the outlook for emerging markets debt, even though growth will likely slow.
Monthly Market Snapshot – December 2023
A monthly update on equity, fixed income, currency, and commodity markets.
Trends and transformation: Ideas for 2024
Explore our latest views on risks and opportunities across the global capital markets as we look ahead to 2024.
Financial Market Review
A quarterly update on equity, fixed income, currency, and commodity markets.
Bonds in brief: making sense of the macro - December issue
What's driving global bond markets and what are the investment implications? Read "Bonds in brief" for Wellington Investment Director Marco Giordano's monthly assessment.
Bizarro World: Could 2024 be the opposite of 2023?
Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Brij Khurana details the dynamics that may upend investor expectations of a repeat of 2023 this year.
Why structural change in Germany may impact investors globally
Macro Strategists John Butler and Eoin O’Callaghan discuss why they believe the structural changes currently underway in Germany will impact investors globally.
Fork in the road: Slowdown or reacceleration ahead?
Markets seem to expect a much smoother ride in 2024, but are they too optimistic? Members of our Investment Strategy & Solutions Group offer their macro and market outlook, including their latest views on equities, bonds, and commodities.
Global high-yield outlook: Near term, defensive but longer term, solid
High-yield portfolio managers Mike Barry and Konstantin Leidman discuss their 2024 outlook and the merits of a near-term defensive stance with an eye on longer-term opportunities.
Why income-seeking investors need to look across asset classes
Income plays an even more crucial role in portfolios than many of us realise, contributing a significant portion of returns for multi-asset portfolios. But with cash rates at around 5%, the world of income has changed. This should prompt investors to take a fresh look across asset classes to see where opportunities lie.
Monthly Market Snapshot – November 2023
A monthly update on equity, fixed income, currency, and commodity markets.
Credit: Better opportunities to add risk on the horizon
Our experts review current macro dynamics impacting the bond market and discuss where they see opportunities and risks across credit sectors.
Bonds in brief: making sense of the macro - November issue
What's driving global bond markets and what are the investment implications? Read "Bonds in brief" for Wellington Investment Director Marco Giordano's monthly assessment.
Fed’s projections yielded mixed results this year — what’s in store for 2024?
Our Fed watcher opines on 2023 policy and looks ahead to 2024.
Rates: Tracking the trade-off between inflation and growth
In their 2024 rates outlook, Investment Directors Amar Reganti and Marco Giordano investigate the treacherous trade-off faced by central banks and what it means for bond investors.
Bond Market Outlook
In this collection fixed income experts across our platform highlight risks and opportunities for discerning fixed income allocators looking ahead to the second half of 2023.
Learning to love (or live with) a late-cycle environment
Are we actually in a late-cycle environment and, if so, how should allocators respond? Head of Multi-Asset Strategy Adam Berger offers guidance, including on portfolio positioning, big cycle bets, and security selection.
2024 Insurance Outlook: Position portfolios for the unexpected
Tim Antonelli offers two critical ideas for insurers' 2024 investment planning: doubling down on diversification and rethinking risk, including geopolitical and default risk.
Macro implications of the AI revolution: is the market right?
Macro Strategist John Butler sets out an initial framework to help answer key questions about the potential macro impact of artificial intelligence.
China fixed income: Dislocations create opportunities in this large and diverse market
Hear from our experts as they uncover new fixed income opportunities in China.
Monthly Market Snapshot – October 2023
A monthly update on equity, fixed income, currency, and commodity markets.
Have the Fed’s recent comments just provided a tailwind for agency MBS?
Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Brij Khurana explains why the market may be missing an important nuance in the Fed's focus on financial conditions.
Securitized debt: Strategies for navigating emerging cracks in consumers’ financial health
Our expert highlights reasons for deteriorating consumer financial health and explores strategies for mitigating risk in securitized asset-backed securities.
You snooze, you may lose: The case for bonds
There are signs the Federal Reserve's rate-hiking cycle may be nearing an end, but some uncertainty remains. With that in mind, Multi-Asset Strategist Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson considers the timing of a move from cash to bonds.
The great central bank balancing act
Marco Giordano examines the difficult balancing act that central banks around the world are seeking to perform and its likely implications for investors.
EMEA Investment Forum 2023: highlights
In this short video we share highlights from Wellington's 2023 EMEA Investment Forum, "The only constant is change" and explore associated expert insights.
Monthly Market Snapshot – September 2023
A monthly update on equity, fixed income, currency, and commodity markets.
Financial Market Review: Third quarter 2023
A monthly update on equity, fixed income, currency, and commodity markets.
Decoding impact expectations: best practices for impact investors and companies
We share three recommendations each for impact investors and companies to help them better understand and manage each other's expectations.
What if US wealth inequality reverses?
Our experts examine the role of wealth inequality in the US economy and the potential investment implications of a reversal in that dynamic.
The “cleanest dirty shirt” now has too many stains
Fixed Income Portfolio Manager posits that US fiscal profligacy will change the game for asset allocators.
Monthly Market Snapshot — August 2023
A monthly update on equity, fixed income, currency, and commodity markets.
Fed not yet willing to declare victory on inflation
We think the Fed is done raising rates for this cycle, despite the likelihood that they are being overly optimistic about inflation. Read to find out why.
Why impact bonds make financial sense
We explore how impact bond investments can help deliver the dual benefits of attractive fixed income returns and material, additional and measurable impact.
Public CRE debt — Risk, opportunity, or both?
Our experts explore the implications of the ongoing stress in the public CRE debt, or commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS), space for investors and analyze risks and opportunities for ratings-constrained insurers.
Green horizons: How the shift toward sustainable finance may reshape fixed income markets
Three sustainability trends have the potential to reshape fixed income markets, leading to a range of new opportunities for investors.
Monthly Market Snapshot — July 2023
A monthly update on equity, fixed income, currency, and commodity markets.
Economic and market forecast in six charts
This visual summary of Wellington Management’s 2023 Outlook captures insights on economic and market forces shaping investment results from specialists from across our investment platform.
Why cash won’t cut it for long: The case for bonds
Global Investment and Multi-Asset Strategist Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson and Investment Strategy Analyst Patrick Wattiau explore the relative potential benefits of bonds versus cash.
Commercial property values shrinking? No problem for big cities
We analyze the impact of declining office property values and outline the reasons why they believe large cities should be able to weather the storm of shrinking commercial property value.
What AI could mean for fixed income
Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Brij Khurana details the potential effects of artificial intelligence on the fixed income market.
How would emerging markets weather a “standard” recession?
Macro Strategist Gillian Edgeworth explores the potential impact of a developed market recession on emerging markets.
How to interpret the Bank of Japan’s latest policy shift
We analyse the wide-ranging investment implications of the Bank of Japan's latest policy shift.
US loses its AAA rating (again)
US Macro Strategist Michael Medeiros analyzes Fitch's recent downgrade of US credit quality and explores the bigger issues at play.
Chair Powell maintains optionality
Fixed Income Analyst Caroline Casavant shares what she thinks matters most for investors in light of the latest interest-rate hike from the Fed.
Monthly Market Snapshot — June 2023
A monthly update on equity, fixed income, currency, and commodity markets.
Bank loans remain attractive despite macroeconomic uncertainty
Our experts believe that bank loans currently offer attractive levels of income and have already priced in an overly bearish macroeconomic view.
Financial Market Review
A monthly update on equity, fixed income, currency, and commodity markets.
State of the credit markets: Does cash rule everything around us?
Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Brij Khurana outlines the state of the credit market today, compares historical periods of quantitative easing, and warns credit investors of cash scarcity in the near future.
Monthly Market Snapshot — May 2023
A monthly update on equity, fixed income, currency, and commodity markets.
More green shoots: Tracking trends in sustainable debt issuance
While growth in the sustainable debt market has been uneven, certain pockets offer substantial opportunities. Two of our fixed income investment professionals weigh in.
FX outlook: Is USD exceptionalism withering away with the Fed hiking cycle nearing an end?
Discover the status of the USD today, learn where the greenback may be headed going forward, and understand why.
Fed skips along the path to a pause
Jeremy Forster analyzes the Federal Reserve's decision to pause its interest-rate hiking cycle, explains why he believes it could be an extended pause, and shares the potential implications for fixed income markets.
A quiet bull market in EM local debt?
Brian Garvey illustrates the recent strength of emerging markets local debt following an extended period of underperformance.
Global high yield: Attractive entry points could soon emerge
Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Konstantin Leidman shares his outlook for high-yield fixed income for the rest of this year and beyond.
Credit market outlook: Expect greater opportunities in back half of 2023
Against a backdrop of elevated recession risks and banking-sector stress, Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Rob Burn identifies relative-value sector opportunities in the credit market.
Fixed income 2023: Will opportunity keep knocking in the second half?
Learn where Fixed Income Strategist Amar Reganti sees opportunities in the fixed income market today and dive deeper into the three key themes he thinks investors should consider going forward.
The “money illusion” economy: Misplaced faith in markets?
Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Brij Khurana shares a skeptical view of US Federal Reserve policy, his assessment of the current market backdrop, and his view of what the future could hold.
Asia: A growth story with longer-term momentum
Is China’s recovery already running out of steam? Macro Strategist Santiago Millán assesses the outlook for China and Asia and sees longer-term momentum for growth.
Time for a new playbook on bonds
Is it time to add to fixed income allocations? Multi-Asset Strategist Adam Berger and Fixed Income Strategist Amar Reganti offer their views, as well as thoughts on specific areas of opportunity.
Monthly Market Snapshot — April 2023
A monthly update on equity, fixed income, currency, and commodity markets.
How do bond investors approach the new volatile regime?
Wellington fixed income experts provide an analysis on how to navigate short-term volatility and reposition portfolios for the structural changes occurring in fixed income markets. Watch the replay here.
Blue bonds: long-awaited innovation or yet to make a splash?
Blue bonds – which aim to support projects related to ocean conservation – are on the rise. How effective are they and what do investors need to know before they invest?
4 reasons why European investors may benefit from going global
Bonds are looking increasingly attractive, but a new, more volatile, normal means investors with a home bias may wish to revisit portfolios. An inconsistent policy landscape and lower hedging costs are just some of the reasons why European investors in particular may benefit from going global.
Today’s sweet spot for yield, the growing role of alts
Insurance Multi-Asset Strategist Tim Antonelli provides his latest multi-asset views for insurers, with an emphasis on the value of core fixed income in today's environment.
Financial Market Review: First quarter 2023
A quarterly update on equity, fixed income, currency, and commodity markets.
Monthly Market Snapshot — March 2023
A monthly update on equity, fixed income, currency, and commodity markets.
Three macro assumptions that could be just plain wrong
Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Brij Khurana offers his non-consensus take on three entrenched, but potentially flawed, beliefs in today's market environment.
Commercial real estate: Seeking shelter from the storm
Finding potential opportunities in commercial mortgage-backed securities these days is all about knowing where to look, says Fixed Income Credit Analyst Carolyn Natale.
High-yield bonds: Too early to get aggressive?
Our high-yield team suggests a somewhat defensive risk posture for now but expects opportunities to take on greater risk to arise later this year.
Will higher rates sap US consumer spending?
Higher interest rates have increased borrowing costs. Could a consumer-led US recession be looming? Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Kyra Fecteau sees three factors that may help mitigate the impact.
Securitized assets: Caught in the storm but with scattered bright spots
Securitized assets have been on the front lines of the ongoing turmoil in the banking sector, but not all securitized subsectors appear equally vulnerable.
Monthly Market Snapshot — February 2023
A monthly update on equity, fixed income, currency, and commodity markets.
Deep and diverse: Welcome to today’s Asia credit market
Two of our Singapore-based experts on Asia credit discuss the market's key features, along with how it's evolved and is likely to continue doing so.
What does the new macro regime mean for investors?
In this Q&A with two senior market practitioners we explore what the new macro regime means for investors and what to expect next.
New BOJ governor: Dove, hawk… or owl?
Investment Director Masahiko Loo and Client Portfolio Manager Jitu Naidu discuss potential implications of the upcoming “changing of the guard” at the BOJ.
Fixed income 2023: Ripe for a reversal
Three of our fixed income investment professionals discuss the potentially compelling opportunity set to be found in today's global bond markets.
Sector rotation opportunities for nimble credit investors
Following a credit market rally, Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Rob Burn still sees value in higher-yielding sectors but believes investors should stay nimble.
Monthly Market Snapshot — January 2023
A monthly update on equity, fixed income, currency, and commodity markets.
What’s driving convertibles in 2023?
Following a challenging 2022, Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Mike Barry and Investment Director Raina Dunkelberger highlight three tailwinds that may help turn the tide for convertibles.
European credit: seeking to make the most of the new market regime
Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Derek Hynes and Investment Specialist Jillian Rooney assess why the new market regime is creating potentially compelling opportunities in the European credit market.
February Fed meeting: Chair Powell strikes a more optimistic tone
The Fed just might still be able to engineer the hoped-for "soft landing" but it's not going to be easy, says Fixed Income Analyst Caroline Casavant.
Monthly Market Snapshot — December 2022
A monthly update on equity, fixed income, currency, and commodity markets.
Why global investors should watch the Bank of Japan
Macro Strategist John Butler explores why global investors should watch the Bank of Japan and what is likely to happen next.
Financial Market Review — Fourth quarter 2022
A quarterly update on equity, fixed income, currency, and commodity markets.
Spread the risk: Our top three fixed income diversifiers for 2023
Fixed Income Strategist Amar Reganti highlights three types of strategies that may be well positioned to provide fixed income portfolio diversification going forward.
CLOs: Poised to outperform in 2023?
Collateralized loan obligations (CLOs) have been sparking investor interest lately — and with good reason, say Investment Director Andrew Bayerl and Investment Specialist Celene Klimas.
Can US bank loans “carry” investors through 2023?
Fixed Income Portfolios managers Jeffrey Heuer, CFA and David Marshak and Investment Director Nick Leichtman describe what they see as the most prudent approach to the bank loans asset class in 2023 and why.
Take credit: Our five best credit market ideas for 2023
Fixed Income Strategist Amar Reganti highlights credit market opportunities that he expects to arise over the course of 2023, against a backdrop of slowing growth.
US recession risk: No longer if, but when and how bad
Portfolio Managers Brij Khurana, Brian Garvey, and Nick Petrucelli believe many observers are underestimating the severity of a potential US recession this year.
Navigating the new global economy in 2023
This executive summary distills the points of view of several of our 2023 Outlook authors. Discover the risks and opportunities they see as we enter a new economic and market regime.
Picture this: Our 2023 economic forecast in five charts
We explain the shifts the market is undergoing, analyze the implications for different asset classes, and identify potential risks and opportunities in a series of visuals.
High yield: Opportunity to pivot in 2023?
Our high-yield bond portfolio managers have a guardedly optimistic outlook on the market and believe security selection will be key to benchmark-relative outperformance in 2023.
Monthly Market Snapshot: November 2022
Currency outlook: Nearing the end of USD exceptionalism?
Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Martin Harvey and Investment Communications Manager Jitu Naidu consider the present state of and outlook for the US dollar.
Hidden in plain sight: Overlooked opportunities in investment-grade credit
Fixed Income Strategist Amar Reganti and Investment Specialist Geoff Austein-Miller highlight some relatively simple, straightforward ways to implement a positive view on high-quality corporate credit.
In a new era for interest rates, can hedge funds fill the role of fixed income?
Hedge funds could be valuable building blocks for a fixed income substitute portfolio, but how should the portfolio be constructed? Members of our Fundamental Factor Team share their views.
How to find potential in volatile European high-yield markets?
Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Konstantin Leidman discusses why European high-yield investors need to be ready for both further volatility and the emergence of new opportunities.
Monthly Market Snapshot: October 2022
The allocator’s landscape: Three areas of attention for 2023
Natasha Brook-Walters, Co-Head of Investment Strategy, discusses downside mitigation given the shifting equity/bond correlation, the impact of cyclical and macro volatility, and opportunities to position for long-term change.
High-yield bonds in 2023: Fortune favours the patient
Amid ongoing dislocation in the high-yield market, Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Konstantin Leidman sees opportunities for investors to take advantage of potentially attractive valuations.
Emerging markets debt outlook: A glass half full or half empty?
Against a still-challenging global backdrop for emerging markets, Macro Strategist Gillian Edgeworth highlights opportunities created by extreme credit spread dispersion across individual countries.
Diversifying styles to survive today’s bond market
In a challenging year for fixed income markets, members of our Fundamental Factor team highlight a bright spot: the momentum factor in global government bond and corporate credit markets.
Three tailwinds that could power CLO equity in 2023 and beyond
Three members of our fixed income team argue that the headwinds currently facing CLO equity should give way to improved returns in 2023 and beyond.
Inflation, rates, and volatility: The best defense is a good offense
Insurance Strategist Tim Antonelli shares his latest multi-asset views for insurers, including the need to balance defensive portfolio strategies with continued income and return generation.
Financial Market Review: Third quarter 2022
Bank of Japan policy shift: Waiting for the other shoe to drop?
Client Portfolio Manager Jitu Naidu and Investment Director Masahiko Loo share their take on the consensus view that Japan has reached several key inflection points.
2023 Macro and rates outlook: Goodbye easy money, hello regime change
Macro Strategist John Butler highlights the impact of macroeconomic "regime change" on global inflation and interest rates, with potential implications for investors.
A new economic era: Why inflation, volatility, and cycles are back
Macro Strategist John Butler argues that a seismic global shift is underway that will disrupt the macro dynamics of the past two decades, challenging long-held investment assumptions.
Monthly Market Snapshot: September 2022
A monthly update on equity, fixed income, currency, and commodity markets.
Can agency MBS bounce back from dismal performance?
Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Brian Conroy and two colleagues weigh in on the mortgage-backed securities (MBS) market in the wake of a very challenging month.
Credit market outlook: Partly sunny with a chance of good value
In his 2023 credit market outlook, Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Rob Burn highlights some potentially attractive opportunities in the wake of this year's market sell-off.
Impact measurement and management: addressing key challenges
Our IMM practice leader describes common impact investing challenges and suggests ways to overcome them.
URL References
Related Insights
Monthly Market Snapshot — February 2024
A monthly update on equity, fixed income, currency, and commodity markets.
By
Brett Hinds
Jameson Dunn