Americas

Showing of Insights Posts
what's current in credit - abstract ceiling of modern architecture in city of China
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

What's current in credit?

In this short video series, Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Connor Fitzgerald takes a look at what's current in credit. Given rather tight credit spread valuations, what is Connor's outlook for the next twelve months and where are the opportunities and risks now?

Continue reading
event
5 min
Video
2025-10-31
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
474157734
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

Monthly Asset Allocation Outlook

How to evolve your portfolio for the latest market conditions? Explore the latest monthly snapshot of our Multi-Asset Team’s asset class views.

Continue reading
event
4 min
Article
2025-10-31
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
641607690
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

Securitized credit: Normalizing, decelerating, or falling off a cliff?

Our experts offer their views on the current conditions and outlook for the securitized credit market.

Continue reading
event
4 min
Article
2025-10-31
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
1264138390
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

An active investor’s guide to growth equities

Our experts offer their view on the current economic environment, explore best practices for investing in high-quality growth equities, and highlight where they see opportunity now.

Continue reading
event
6 min
Article
2025-09-30
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Aerial View Of Spherical Topiary Plant.
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

Chart in Focus: The need to differentiate market growth from macro growth

Macro growth and earnings growth have been misaligned for the last 15 years, particularly in the US and China, but in opposite directions. For equity investors, what would be the key to identify real growth?

Continue reading
event
3 min
Article
2025-09-30
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
1359344663
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

Rate relief: Fed cuts half point, but says “economy is strong” 

Our expert explains the Fed's bold rate cut and some key takeaways for investors.

Continue reading
event
3 min
Article
2025-09-30
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
1153764271
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

The real issue on rate cuts? Keep your eyes on the dot (plot)

Keep your eyes on the Fed's 2025 dot plot. The real story is where policy rates are headed, not just the next rate cut.

Continue reading
event
3 min
Article
2025-09-30
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
1154438278
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

The US elections through the eyes of a European investor

Supriya Menon, Head of Multi-Asset Strategy – EMEA, explores what potentially material implications upcoming US elections could have for European investors and identifies key areas to monitor closely.

Continue reading
event
7 min
Article
2025-09-30
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
568700443
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

What the yen carry trade unwind could mean for markets and the Fed

Brij Khurana explains why market participants are likely underestimating how foreign ownership of US assets could constrain the pace and magnitude of the Fed’s cutting cycle.

Continue reading
event
7 min
Article
2025-09-30
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
173899201
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

Four investment perspectives amid a pivotal US election

How can investors reposition portfolios for a pivotal but highly unpredictable US elections? Nick Samouilhan explores potential avenues in conversation with three leading portfolio managers.

Continue reading
event
6 min
Article
2025-09-30
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
dolphin-plate-720x450-white-v1
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

Time to capitalise on the evolving role of bonds?

We outline why we think the new economic era is elevating the role of bonds as a source of attractive and stable income, downside protection and portfolio diversification.

Continue reading
event
2 min
Article
2025-09-30
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
White House South Portico
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

Harris vs Trump: The foreign policy and investment implications

Our expert examines expected Harris and Trump foreign policies and their potential impact on the investment landscape.

Continue reading
event
4 min
Article
2025-02-28
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
1096496308
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

Still waiting…Fed wants more data before cutting policy rates

Our expert dives into Fed policy following the July FMOC meeting.

Continue reading
event
3 min
Article
2024-10-31
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
topofmind-hero-banner
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

Does the US election even matter? Thoughts on politics, Fed policy, and portfolios

What's next for interest rates and what impact will the US election have? Head of Multi-Asset Strategy Adam Berger and Macro Strategist Mike Medeiros share their outlook and discuss the asset allocation implications.

Continue reading
event
9 min
Article
2025-06-30
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
1126016041
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

Are US election probabilities now a critical driver of bond yields?

Our expert argues that the US election remains a critical catalyst for the bond market given the contrast between both parties as it relates to supply side policies such as trade and immigration, and to policy differences around taxation and regulation.

Continue reading
event
3 min
Article
2024-11-30
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
155152960
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

Chart in Focus: Broadening earnings growth signals healthy US equity market

Over the past year, the markets have seen the companies best poised to harness and benefit from new innovations within artificial intelligence rewarded accordingly.  Can this signal more upside for the entire US equity market?

Continue reading
event
3 min
Article
2025-07-31
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
551986071
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

Ok, Boomer: How US generational wealth distribution could upend the economy and markets

Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Brij Khurana discusses the implications of US Baby Boomers' wealth concentration in the event of a market decline.

Continue reading
event
5 min
Article
2025-06-30
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
1486716455
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

Disappearing unicorns: The importance of capital efficiency in a higher-for-longer rate environment

Members of our late-state growth equity team share their views on the impact of interest rates on venture capital activity — including the ability of companies to reach “unicorns” status.

Continue reading
event
8 min
Whitepaper
2025-07-31
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
galaxy-hero-banner-insight-1200x600
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

Time for credit selection to shine

Fixed income investors continue to seek answers to an era of volatile rates. Large, static exposures to credit markets no longer cut it. Instead, a nimble and dynamic approach is more likely to create resilient and consistent total return outcomes.

Continue reading
event
5 min
Article
2025-07-31
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Mid Year Outlook Designs 4_sd_v2
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

Ideas for navigating a new era

Explore our latest views on risks and opportunities across the global capital markets.

Continue reading
event
Article
2025-06-30
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Mid Year Outlook Designs 4_sd_v2
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

The revenge of the monetarists

Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Brij Khurana makes the case for a monetarist explanation for moderating inflation.

Continue reading
event
5 min
Article
2025-06-30
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Mid Year Outlook Designs 4_sd_v2
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

Governments have been slow to reduce their fiscal deficits — it could cost them

Our expert explores the investment implications of continued excessive deficit spending by G7 countries.

Continue reading
event
4 min
Article
2025-06-30
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
1096496308
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

Powell back to waiting on inflation data

Our expert's key takeaways from the May FOMC meeting.

Continue reading
event
2 min
Article
2025-05-31
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
1134642362
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

Impact investing in emerging markets: Growing opportunities, shifting challenges

Members of our impact bond team discuss their evolving emerging markets opportunity set and the importance of a bottom-up approach to value creation.

Continue reading
event
6 min
Article
2025-04-30
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
1300497464
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

The Fed’s lessons learned from its COVID response

Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Brij Khurana breaks down the central bank's policy decisions during the pandemic and explains how they continue to affect financial markets.

Continue reading
event
6 min
Article
2025-04-30
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
92162750
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

Biden 2.0: National security and investment themes

The geopolitical and investment implications of a potential second Biden term.

Continue reading
event
5 min
Article
2025-04-30
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
1330408846
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

The immigration surge: Political challenge, economic blessing?

Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan considers the impact of rising immigration, a top issue in this year's US elections, on growth, interest rates, and the labor market.

Continue reading
event
4 min
Article
2025-04-30
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

FOMC: Stable policy amid market volatility

The Fed is holding steady amid market turmoil. See our quick notes on the FOMC's March policy statement, forecasts, and the Fed chair's press conference. 

Continue reading
event
Quick Take
2025-03-31
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
1359344663
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

Agency MBS key questions for 2024

Is there room for mortgage spreads to tighten further? Brian Conroy and Joseph Marvan examine this and seven other questions that will be significant for the agency MBS market in 2024.

Continue reading
event
Quick Take
2025-03-31
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
148770684
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

The Trump/Biden rematch: Market implications of unprecedented policy divergence 

Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan discusses six key areas of policy debate in this year's US election that she expects will matter most to markets, from the tax and spending plans to trade and geopolitics.

Continue reading
event
Article
2025-03-31
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
645912480
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

Is the US economy really that different since COVID?

US economists have been touting the resilience of the post-COVID economic rebound. Brij Khurana dissects several key economic indicators to see what's really changed since 2019. 

Continue reading
event
Article
2025-03-31
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
1370499454
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

Too much focus on Fed, not enough on fiscal

Current US fiscal and monetary policy stances argue for risk taking in fixed income.

Continue reading
event
Article
2025-02-07
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

Top 5 fixed income ideas for 2024

With central banks set to pivot to accommodative policy, and elevated yields still prevailing, we think fixed income offers compelling opportunities. Here we share our top five ideas.

Continue reading
event
Quick Take
2025-02-28
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
1473481664
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

No more free lunch: Impact of higher interest rates on private equity strategies

We explain what the direct and indirect rate exposure of buyouts, venture capital, growth equity, secondaries, and fund-of-funds mean for investors.

Continue reading
event
Article
2025-01-31
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

The shifting liquidity landscape: What’s at stake?

The beginning of the end could be in sight for the Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening (QT) program. US Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan considers the Fed's next steps and what they could mean for banks, liquidity, and markets broadly.

Continue reading
event
Quick Take
2025-01-31
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

Bizarro World: Could 2024 be the opposite of 2023?

Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Brij Khurana details the dynamics that may upend investor expectations of a repeat of 2023 this year.

Continue reading
event
Quick Take
2025-01-17
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Mid Year Outlook Designs
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

Will a “Goldilocks” economy be just right for equity markets?

We provide an outlook on the ongoing shift to new investment regime, and the market segments that we expect will most heavily influence global equity performance in the coming year. 

Continue reading
event
Article
2024-12-31
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

Fed’s projections yielded mixed results this year — what’s in store for 2024?

Our Fed watcher opines on 2023 policy and looks ahead to 2024.

Continue reading
event
Quick Take
2024-03-31
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Mid Year Outlook Designs
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

The US economy in 2024: A tale of transition

Our US macro expert sees changes in consumer and investment spending in the coming year, and highlights what she'll be watching for in terms of policy, politics, and profit margins.

Continue reading
event
Article
2024-06-30
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Mid Year Outlook Designs
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

How geopolitics and the energy transition may reshape global trade

We explore the potential near- and longer-term market effects of deteriorating US/China relations, coupled with the shift toward a low-carbon economy.

Continue reading
event
Article
2024-11-30
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

Have the Fed’s recent comments just provided a tailwind for agency MBS?

Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Brij Khurana explains why the market may be missing an important nuance in the Fed's focus on financial conditions.

Continue reading
event
Article
2024-11-30
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

Securitized debt: Strategies for navigating emerging cracks in consumers’ financial health

Our expert highlights reasons for deteriorating consumer financial health and explores strategies for mitigating risk in securitized asset-backed securities.

Continue reading
event
Quick Take
2024-11-15
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
600578559
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

What if US wealth inequality reverses?

Our experts examine the role of wealth inequality in the US economy and the potential investment implications of a reversal in that dynamic.

Continue reading
event
Article
2024-09-30
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

The “cleanest dirty shirt” now has too many stains

Fixed Income Portfolio Manager posits that US fiscal profligacy will change the game for asset allocators. 

Continue reading
event
Quick Take
2024-09-30
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

Fed not yet willing to declare victory on inflation

We think the Fed is done raising rates for this cycle, despite the likelihood that they are being overly optimistic about inflation. Read to find out why.

Continue reading
event
Quick Take
2024-03-31
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

Public CRE debt — Risk, opportunity, or both?

Our experts explore the implications of the ongoing stress in the public CRE debt, or commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS), space for investors and analyze risks and opportunities for ratings-constrained insurers.

Continue reading
event
Quick Take
2024-09-30
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
1089342370
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

US regional banking sector update

We explore how banking regulation and legislation could impact US regional banks, including highlighting the potential for M&A activity and for dispersion to drive long/short opportunities.

Continue reading
event
Article
2024-08-31
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

After the US downgrade: Thoughts on public debt, bond yields, and Fed policy

In the wake of the US debt downgrade by Fitch, Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan explains what worries her most about the nation's debt situation and considers the impact on the term premium and the Fed’s plans.

Continue reading
event
Quick Take
2024-08-31
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

Why cash won’t cut it for long: The case for bonds

Global Investment and Multi-Asset Strategist Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson and Investment Strategy Analyst Patrick Wattiau explore the relative potential benefits of bonds versus cash.

Continue reading
event
Quick Take
2024-08-31
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

Commercial property values shrinking? No problem for big cities

We analyze the impact of declining office property values and outline the reasons why they believe large cities should be able to weather the storm of shrinking commercial property value.

Continue reading
event
Quick Take
2024-08-31
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

What AI could mean for fixed income

Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Brij Khurana details the potential effects of artificial intelligence on the fixed income market.

Continue reading
event
Quick Take
2024-08-31
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

Seven observations on the latest US/China executive order

Geopolitical Strategist Thomas Mucha shares his analysis of the recent Biden administration executive order, which aims to restrict investment into certain sectors in China, and details the potential investment implications. 

Continue reading
event
Quick Take
2024-08-31
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

US loses its AAA rating (again)

US Macro Strategist Michael Medeiros analyzes Fitch's recent downgrade of US credit quality and explores the bigger issues at play.

Continue reading
event
Quick Take
2024-08-31
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

Chair Powell maintains optionality

Fixed Income Analyst Caroline Casavant shares what she thinks matters most for investors in light of the latest interest-rate hike from the Fed.

Continue reading
event
Quick Take
2024-07-31
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

Bank loans remain attractive despite macroeconomic uncertainty

Our experts believe that bank loans currently offer attractive levels of income and have already priced in an overly bearish macroeconomic view.

Continue reading
event
Quick Take
2024-07-31
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Mid Year Outlook Designs
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

How to weather the storm: A roadmap for more resilient portfolios

As we face a new era of elevated market and cycle volatility, Co-Head of Investment Strategy Natasha Brook-Walters assesses how asset owners can ensure that their portfolios are up for the challenge.

Continue reading
event
Article
2024-07-31
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

State of the credit markets: Does cash rule everything around us?

Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Brij Khurana outlines the state of the credit market today, compares historical periods of quantitative easing, and warns credit investors of cash scarcity in the near future. 

Continue reading
event
Quick Take
2024-06-30
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

Investing in the age of great-power competition

As competition between great powers intensifies, a new global order is taking shape. Geopolitical Strategist Thomas Mucha explores the investment implications of a more fragmented and fractious world.

Continue reading
event
Quick Take
2024-06-30
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

Fed skips along the path to a pause

Jeremy Forster analyzes the Federal Reserve's decision to pause its interest-rate hiking cycle, explains why he believes it could be an extended pause, and shares the potential implications for fixed income markets.

Continue reading
event
Quick Take
2024-06-30
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Mid Year Outlook Designs
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

When the US sneezes, does the world still catch a cold?

Macro Strategist John Butler discusses the growing potential for cyclical and monetary policy divergence, despite markets pricing for the contrary, and assesses what it means for investors.

Continue reading
event
Article
2024-05-31
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Mid Year Outlook Designs
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

Inflation loosens its grip, but bank turmoil could put the squeeze on US growth

US Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan weighs the benefits of disinflation for consumers and companies against the risks of a credit crunch brought on by the recent bank crisis.

Continue reading
event
Article
2024-05-31
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Mid Year Outlook Designs
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

The “money illusion” economy: Misplaced faith in markets?

Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Brij Khurana shares a skeptical view of US Federal Reserve policy, his assessment of the current market backdrop, and his view of what the future could hold.

Continue reading
event
Article
2024-06-30
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

Have you looked at Brazilian equities lately?

Equity Research Analyst David Reid believes now is an opportune time for EM equity investors to consider implementing or augmenting portfolio allocations to Brazilian stocks. 

Continue reading
event
Quick Take
2024-05-31
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

US debt ceiling back in focus: The context matters

US Macro Strategist Mike Medeiros shares his latest thoughts on the US debt-ceiling standoff, including its potential outcomes and implications.

Continue reading
event
Quick Take
2024-05-31
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

Did the Fed just make a policy error?

Did the Fed just make a policy error? All things considered, Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Jeremy Forster thinks the answer is yes. Learn why and what the implications could be.

Continue reading
event
Quick Take
2024-05-31
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

Three macro assumptions that could be just plain wrong

Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Brij Khurana offers his non-consensus take on three entrenched, but potentially flawed, beliefs in today's market environment.

Continue reading
event
Quick Take
2024-04-30
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

US banking system: Three pressing questions

Equity Strategist Andrew Heiskell asks three questions investors ought to ask when it comes to the recent US banking system volatility.

Continue reading
event
Quick Take
2024-04-30
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

Will higher rates sap US consumer spending?

Higher interest rates have increased borrowing costs. Could a consumer-led US recession be looming? Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Kyra Fecteau sees three factors that may help mitigate the impact.

Continue reading
event
Quick Take
2024-03-31
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

Financial stability versus inflation: The Fed’s balancing act has gotten much trickier

The Fed’s policy calculus has clearly changed somewhat over the past few weeks but the central bank may not be done hiking rates just yet, says Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Jeremy Forster. 

Continue reading
event
Quick Take
2024-03-31
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

Understanding the US banking sector shake-up

Investment Communications Managers Jitu Naidu and Adam Norman detail recent US bank failures and analyze the implications. (Published 15 March 2023)

Continue reading
event
Quick Take
2024-03-31
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

On to the next crisis: Glimpsing a post-SVB world

Amid the turmoil in the US banking sector, Global Investment Strategist Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson suggests investors consider pivoting to a “risk-management mode” that favors higher-quality assets. (Published 14 March 2023)

Continue reading
event
Quick Take
2024-03-31
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

SVB collapse: What are the implications?

Multi-Asset Strategist Supriya Menon shares her latest perspectives on the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank Financial Group (SVB) and the unfolding implications for investors. (Published 14 March 2023)

Continue reading
event
Quick Take
2024-03-31
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

US debt-ceiling risk: Justifiable jitters?

With markets on high alert around the US debt-ceiling standoff, Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan lays out some possible paths forward and weighs the economic risks.

Continue reading
event
Quick Take
2024-02-29
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

Debt and dysfunction in Washington: The US hits the ceiling (again)

Global Investment Strategist Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson talks to Macro Strategist Mike Medeiros about the US debt-ceiling showdown and considers its potential investment implications.

Continue reading
event
Quick Take
2024-02-29
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

February Fed meeting: Chair Powell strikes a more optimistic tone

The Fed just might still be able to engineer the hoped-for "soft landing" but it's not going to be easy, says Fixed Income Analyst Caroline Casavant.

Continue reading
event
Quick Take
2023-09-30
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

Currency outlook: Nearing the end of USD exceptionalism?

Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Martin Harvey and Investment Communications Manager Jitu Naidu consider the present state of and outlook for the US dollar.

Continue reading
event
Quick Take
2023-12-31
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

The Fed’s unenviable task for 2023

Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Jeremy Forster offers his forward-looking take on the Fed's comments and latest rate hike coming out of its December meeting. 

Continue reading
event
Quick Take
2023-12-31
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

A new blueprint for US trade: Building a more resilient, sustainable, and competitive economy

Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan explains how the Biden administration is reshaping US trade policy to reflect today's global realities, including supply-chain challenges, decarbonization, and geopolitical turmoil.

Continue reading
event
Quick Take
2023-12-31
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
2023 Global Economic Outlook
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

2023: The year of disinflation for the US economy

In the coming year, US Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan expects to see inflation begin to decline, the economy adjust to higher interest rates, and labor markets feel the pain of restrictive Fed policy.

Continue reading
event
Article
2023-12-31
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

Markets take US election results in stride (for now, anyway)

Client Portfolio Manager Jitu Naidu weighs in on the markets' response to, and other potential implications of, the recently held US midterm elections.

Continue reading
event
Quick Take
2023-01-31
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

November FOMC meeting: How slow can the Fed go?

Investment Specialist Caroline Casavant shares her takeaways from the November FOMC meeting, including thoughts on the likely pace of further Fed interest-rate hikes.

Continue reading
event
Quick Take
2023-01-31
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

Can agency MBS bounce back from dismal performance?

Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Brian Conroy and two colleagues weigh in on the mortgage-backed securities (MBS) market in the wake of a very challenging month.

Continue reading
event
Quick Take
2023-01-31
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Bank loans: Can issuers overcome higher interest expenses?
The short answer, according to Fixed Income Portfolio Managers Jeff Heuer and David Marshak, is that many can. And, they believe bank loans can outperform many other fixed-income sectors over the next 12 months.
Continue reading
event
Quick Take
2023-01-31
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
The Fed’s “lean, leave, then clean” strategy
US inflation could prove "stickier" than many observers think. How might that influence Fed policy into 2023? Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Jeremy Forster opines.
Continue reading
event
Quick Take
2022-12-31
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
electric car charging point
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
The Inflation Reduction Act: A big deal for the US economy
US Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan considers the economic implications of the climate- and energy-related spending provisions in the IRA, including the potential for higher productivity.
Continue reading
event
Article
2023-09-30
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
What does an equity market bottom look like?
Applying a historical analysis to today's market, Multi-Asset Portfolio Manager Nick Petrucelli believes US equities have not yet found a near-term bottom.
Continue reading
event
Quick Take
2022-11-30
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
hero_unique_perspectives_brij-720-484
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
No more Mr. Nice Guy? Fed Chair Powell talks tough on inflation

Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Brij Khurana offers his latest thoughts on Fed policy following the central bank's recent Jackson Hole meeting.

Continue reading
event
Quick Take
2023-09-30
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
US/China relations: What next after Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan?
Geopolitical Strategist Thomas Mucha assesses the escalating tension in US/China relations following US Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan.
Continue reading
event
Quick Take
2022-11-30
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Investment takeaways from the latest inflation data
With 2022's structural inflation story still very much intact, now may be a particularly opportune time for investors to add real-asset and inflation-sensitive exposures to their portfolios.
Continue reading
event
Quick Take
2022-11-30
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
a shiftting macro landscape qe china and europe
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
A shifting macro landscape: QE, China, and Europe
We explore the changing macro environment, highlighting the investment implications of the end of quantitative easing programs, the state of the Chinese cycle, and an evolving outlook on Europe.
Continue reading
event
Article
2023-08-31
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Reckoning with recession risk: Why this one may be “pricey”
Client Portfolio Manager Jitu Naidu shares his latest take on the looming risk of a global economic recession and related issues.
Continue reading
event
Quick Take
2022-11-30
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Fed rate hikes: A tailwind for bonds?
Global Investment Strategist Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson believes higher-quality, longer-duration bonds may prove resilient even if the Fed keeps raising short-term rates into 2023.
Continue reading
event
Quick Take
2022-10-31
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
July Fed meeting: Rising inflation vs falling growth
After another rate hike, the Fed must balance moderating growth with mounting inflation. Caroline Casavant opines on how the central bank might navigate this dilemma.
Continue reading
event
Quick Take
2022-10-31
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
us inflation supply chains to the rescue
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
US inflation: Supply chains to the rescue?
Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan shares her inflation outlook, including the prospects for supply-chain normalization, and her views on the market implications.
Continue reading
event
Article
2023-07-31
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Credit investing against a slower-growth, higher-inflation backdrop
The significant flattening of the US Treasury yield curve in recent months has some prognosticators calling for an impending US recession. Not so fast, says Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Rob Burn.
Continue reading
event
Quick Take
2022-07-31
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Is it too soon to call a “top” in US interest rates?
Are we nearing the top of the 10-year treasury rate?
Continue reading
event
Quick Take
2023-05-31
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Five reasons to take a closer look at Brazil
I have published my views on Brazil more than once over the past year (most recently in my November 2021 blog post), but the environment there has changed markedly through the first few months of this year, with COVID-related risks seemingly on the wane and the Russia/Ukraine conflict having driven up commodity prices — so I thought now would be an opportune time to share a fresh perspective on South America’s most populous country.
Continue reading
event
Quick Take
2022-07-31
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Global credit: Where do we go from here?
Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Mahmoud El-Shaer explores why 2022 may be a momentous year for global credit and sets out a framework to think through potential investment implications. 2022 promises to be another challenging year for central banks as they attempt to normalise policies in the face of surging inflation, while navigating the growing fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Since 2009, there has essentially been one trade in capital markets: riding a huge wave of central bank liquidity in support of the financial system and the economy, with the G4 central banks alone pumping approximately US$20 trillion into the system via quantitative easing (QE).
Continue reading
event
Quick Take
2022-07-31
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
man with a tablet
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Ten more “what if” scenarios for 2022
In his latest Top of Mind session, Multi-Asset Strategist Adam Berger addressed a wide range of what-if scenarios on the minds of our clients. See what he has to say on Russia, China, cryptocurrencies, the IPO market, and many other topics in this brief article.
Continue reading
event
Article
2023-02-28
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
An inside look at today’s municipal market
After a year in which municipal bonds posted respectable returns (Figure 1), many clients have been seeking forward-looking guidance on the market as a whole and (increasingly) on particular sectors of it. Here are my latest thoughts as of this writing on the outlook for the rest of 2022.
Continue reading
event
Quick Take
2022-05-31
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
How might equity sectors fare when Fed tightening begins?
We look back at how US equities have performed in the months following the beginning of a tightening cycle, as well as how bond yields have tended to behave.
Continue reading
event
Quick Take
2022-05-31
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Regime change likely to challenge modern market structures
Recently, I wrote about the rotation from growth to value and why some of my colleagues and I expect volatility, more than a smooth transition of leadership, to define markets. The thesis is rooted in the fact that seismic macro questions loom over markets and are likely to trigger violent fluctuations in investor conviction. Earlier this month, Macro Strategist John Butler dissected one of these questions: Will the negative correlation between stocks and bonds turn positive?
Continue reading
event
Quick Take
2022-05-31
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Credit and equity performance around Fed hiking cycles
One of the discussion topics du jour is how the credit and equity markets might react to the US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest-rate hikes that are widely anticipated in the coming months. As is often the case with me, I find it helpful here to refer to past hiking regimes and market performances as a sort of guidepost. The proof’s in the pudding To wit, I examined the historical returns of both US credit (for this purpose, proxied by corporate high-yield bonds) and US equities (represented by the S&P 500 Index) during the six months before the first rate increase of a Fed hiking cycle through the 12 months after said increase.
Continue reading
event
Quick Take
2022-05-31
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
The critically important national security implications of biotech
Deepening US policy risks in the biotechnology sector have garnered some well-deserved attention from many of my colleagues lately. Given biotechnology’s potential future importance to US policymakers in the context of the ongoing US-China “great-power” competition, I’d like to share my own thoughts on what’s driving the rising geopolitical risk and national security concerns.
Continue reading
event
Quick Take
2022-04-30
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
678836663
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Fed watch 2022: Year of the hawk?
With inflation on the rise and all eyes seemingly on the Fed these days, Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Jeremy Forster shares his takeaways from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)'s December 2021 meeting.
Continue reading
event
Quick Take
2022-07-29
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.