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This is a section of our 2024 Investment Outlook, where specialists from across our investment platform share insights on the economic and market forces that we expect to influence portfolios in the year to come.
Our experts believe the global economic cycle is slowing and that the slowdown may gather momentum. Despite signs of falling inflation, we don’t think policy is tight enough to achieve sustainable target inflation levels. Yet, central banks seem to have little appetite to raise rates further, because they fear recession more than above-target inflation. Different choices by policymakers against these trade-offs could lead countries down diverging growth paths, creating opportunities for active managers. In this collection, we explore opportunities and risks created by intensifying macro regime change and continued geopolitical uncertainty; we dive into macro expectations for the US; we reflect on the macro implications of two megatrends that could drive results for many years to come: generative AI and the energy transition; and we offer our near-, medium-, and long-term ideas on commodities.
Outlook contents
2024: A year of intensifying macro regime change?
John Butler and Eoin O’Callaghan explore why 2024 could be a year of intensifying macro regime change and what it means for investors.
The intersection of geopolitics and deglobalization
The geopolitical landscape is likely to remain complex and unpredictable throughout 2024. What are the key risks to watch out for and what are the implications for investors?
The US economy in 2024: A tale of transition
Our US macro expert sees changes in consumer and investment spending in the coming year, and highlights what she'll be watching for in terms of policy, politics, and profit margins.
Macro implications of the AI revolution: is the market right?
Macro Strategist John Butler sets out an initial framework to help answer key questions about the potential macro impact of artificial intelligence.
How geopolitics and the energy transition may reshape global trade
We explore the potential near- and longer-term market effects of deteriorating US/China relations, coupled with the shift toward a low-carbon economy.
URL References
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Experts
Commodities: Top ideas and evolving opportunities
To help clients plan for the coming year, our commodities experts share their top near-term, medium-term, and long-term investment ideas.
Multiple authors