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2026 Midyear Outlook Investment Ideas

Staying positive yet resilient: 4 portfolio ideas to consider

5 min read
2027-06-30
Archived info
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Advised Retail multi asset
Supriya Menon, Multi-Asset Portfolio Manager
Advised Retail multi asset
Maria Vittoria Venezia, Investment Specialist
Advised Retail multi asset

This is an excerpt from our Investment Outlook, in which specialists from across our investment platform share insights on the economic and market forces that we expect to influence portfolios.

Key points

  • As we enter the second half of 2026, the macroeconomic and market backdrop has diverged from initial expectations, with stronger-than-expected earnings and geopolitics emerging as a meaningful source of downside risk. Against this evolving backdrop, we share four ideas for investors to consider.
  • First, a fresh approach to high-quality companies may offer equity investors a source of resilient returns amid elevated volatility.
  • Second, selectively taking advantage of structural trends can bolster diversification and return potential. Listed infrastructure is a case in point.
  • Third, a more fragmented and complex environment for fixed income may reinforce the need for more deliberate portfolio construction and active security selection.
  • Finally, in an environment of lower expected equity beta returns, alpha is likely to play an increasingly important role in meeting return objectives, strengthening the case for return sources that are less dependent on market direction and more resilient across cycles.

As we move into the second half of 2026, we’ve been reflecting on how the year has unfolded versus expectations. While we were already anticipating a constructive backdrop for equities, earnings were even stronger than the market expected — led by the US and emerging markets but increasingly broadening elsewhere. By contrast, the geopolitical landscape deteriorated rapidly in March, with negative implications for inflation, central bank credibility and public debt sustainability that have yet to fully play out.

Against this backdrop, here are a few ideas for investors to consider as we look towards the second half of the year.

1. Equities: consider quality as an anchor

While quality has long been a cornerstone of equity investing, recent performance has been more challenged, prompting questions around quality’s role in portfolios. In our view, this reflects the need to reassess the definition of quality in today’s environment rather than a change in its underlying merits.

Traditional, static definitions tend to rely on backward-looking metrics that may no longer capture the characteristics capable of driving resilience and growth. Instead, we believe quality should be viewed through a more forward-looking and dynamic lens. One way to frame this is to think of quality as a characteristic that determines whether companies can convert growth inflections into sustained positive outcomes. These inflections tend to be most effectively captured by companies able to demonstrate strong control over key operating drivers, a solid track record from management and balance sheet resilience.

Recent market dynamics are reinforcing this shift. Quality growth companies, traditionally viewed as market leaders, no longer appear able to justify their high valuations in the eyes of the market given increased margin pressures and earnings downgrades. Conversely, a broader set of companies, including those historically seen as more cyclical, have shown improving fundamentals, with stronger free cash flow generation, higher returns on capital and more resilient growth profiles. In this context, quality has not disappeared; rather, its definition has evolved.

We believe capturing quality today requires looking beyond traditional classifications, recognising that new sources of durable growth and financial strength are emerging across a wider opportunity set. This evolution, in our view, reinforces the case for an active approach that has the flexibility to adapt the definition of quality as market leadership shifts — while remaining anchored in companies with resilient, compounding fundamentals.

2. Listed infrastructure: bolster exposure to structural trends

A well-anchored equity portfolio can be enhanced by thoughtful exposure to secular trends. Listed infrastructure stands out here by offering an attractive conduit to the generational themes of AI, energy transition and security. The well known energy “trilemma” — or the need to balance reliability, affordability and sustainability — has become more complex in recent years, evolving into a “quadrilemma”. Energy still needs to be reliable, affordable and sustainable — but power supply now needs to grow to meet surging demand. AI has emerged as another source of demand — causing electricity demand growth to be multiple times greater in developed markets than we observed in previous decades.

Yet power generation is only one component of meeting growing power demand. In much of the developed world — especially where renewables have scaled quickly — generation capacity has outpaced the grid’s ability to transmit and distribute power. Together, growth in power generation and power networks point to a sustained, long-term investment need, not just in 2026, but well into the coming decades.

We believe regulated utilities sit at the centre of today’s structural demand shift. Supported by an improving regulatory backdrop, they provide exposure to powerful generational growth themes such as electrification and AI without taking on the volatility typically associated with these areas.

3. Fixed income: adopt a more deliberate playbook

Fixed income faces a more complex backdrop today than it has in the past, but it remains a core component of a diversified portfolio. Deglobalisation, uneven inflation dynamics and growing concerns about debt sustainability — exacerbated by the latest geopolitical tensions in the Middle East — are contributing to greater divergence in central bank policy and economic trajectories.

This has important implications for fixed income investors. Today, it’s not simply about holding bonds to complement equities; investors need to take a more deliberate approach to building the fixed income component of their portfolios. Flexibility and security selection are paramount — a dynamic that, in our view, lends itself to an active approach aimed at capturing opportunities created by dispersion and divergence across regions and sectors.

In this environment, investment-grade credit can play a diversifying role. Because these bonds are issued by financially strong companies, default risk has historically tended to stay low, even during downturns, and price moves are usually less severe than in riskier areas of the credit market.

As well as potentially protecting portfolios during market sell-offs, active bond managers focused on both price and income can seek to take advantage of spread widening by buying fundamentally sound bonds at lower prices than they believe they are worth. This approach can lead to strong returns when markets stabilise and spreads trend back towards their previous tighter levels. More broadly, emphasising stable cash flows, strong fundamentals and favouring attractive entry points created by technical pressure rather than deteriorating credit quality may help investors navigate markets during periods of stress.

4. Diversification: seek returns independent of the broader market

Historically, investors have relied on a combination of equities and bonds to deliver diversification, with broad market exposures and asset allocation doing much of the heavy lifting. This approach worked well when equities and bonds were consistently negatively correlated. However, this relationship has become less reliable of late (Figure 1).

Figure 1

Stock-bond correlations require a new playbook for diversification

At the same time, equities may not perform as consistently as they have in the past. After years of double-digit equity returns, the starting point for risk assets appears more fragile. Elevated valuations point to more muted forward looking returns, increasing the risk that exposure to the broad equity market (beta) alone may make it harder to meet long term objectives. In parallel, we have also seen an increase in stock level dispersion. This widening gap between winners and losers creates greater scope and need for differentiation beyond broad market exposure to traditional asset classes.

Reflecting this shift, interest in alternative diversifying approaches — including commodities and real assets — has grown in recent years.

Looking ahead, investors may also need to generate returns with less support from market direction and with greater sensitivity to drawdowns. This makes it increasingly important to understand how returns are sourced, not just the level of risk taken. In this environment, the case for more precisely targeting specific sources of diversification appears compelling.

Absolute return equity strategies that seek to isolate the returns driven by manager skill (alpha) from broader market movements may offer an avenue to achieve that diversification. When implemented within a disciplined risk management and portfolio construction framework, we believe these strategies can help enhance portfolio resilience and improve risk adjusted outcomes — even more important in periods when traditional diversification may prove less effective.

Bringing it all together

If we were to crystallise our outlook for the remainder of 2026, we remain positive but believe increasing resilience is key given the new normal of geopolitical disruption, more challenging and diverging macro conditions and fragile markets. Here are four key ideas to consider:

  • Enhance the quality of your equity portfolio but ensure it reflects the changing nature of what constitutes quality.
  • Take selective advantage of structural trends, with listed infrastructure as a standout area to explore.
  • Take a closer look at more deliberate portfolio construction and active credit selection in fixed income.
  • Consider absolute return strategies that have the potential to isolate manager skill, which may help to smooth the overall return profile.

The views expressed are those of the authors at the time of writing. Other teams may hold different views and make different investment decisions. The value of your investment may become worth more or less than at the time of original investment. While any third-party data used is considered reliable, its accuracy is not guaranteed. For professional, institutional or accredited investors only.

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