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The views expressed are those of the authors at the time of writing. Other teams may hold different views and make different investment decisions. The value of your investment may become worth more or less than at the time of original investment. While any third-party data used is considered reliable, its accuracy is not guaranteed. For professional, institutional, or accredited investors only.
Geopolitical turmoil and global policy shifts have been two of the most defining macroeconomic characteristics of 2022. Structural and interlocking global challenges represent a significant departure from previous, more benign geopolitical and macro environments. We explore themes that prudent investors may do well to watch in the new year and beyond and outline how these changes could offer opportunities for discerning investors.
To determine the global investment risks and opportunities that lie ahead, we will be keeping an eye on several interconnected macroeconomic themes, including:
We believe that the shifting geopolitical and policy environment will be disruptive for a long time. Against this backdrop, companies are likely to become more differentiated from one another, which could present compelling investment opportunities. This environment also lends itself to thematic strengths across regional, country, industry, company, asset, and asset-class lines, particularly for active managers that are well equipped to identify the could-be thematic winners.
The bottom line is that we believe there are both risks and opportunities associated with global geopolitical and policy changes. For actively managed investment strategies, some of these shifts could offer marked structural advantages for years to come.
Picture this: Our 2023 economic forecast in five charts
We explain the shifts the market is undergoing, analyze the implications for different asset classes, and identify potential risks and opportunities in a series of visuals.
Navigating the new global economy in 2023
This executive summary distills the points of view of several of our 2023 Outlook authors. Discover the risks and opportunities they see as we enter a new economic and market regime.
China equity in 2023: Year of the stock picker
Despite the potential risks of investing in China equity, Equity Portfolio Manager Bo Meunier believes there are attractive opportunities for patient, discerning stock pickers.
China internet: Identifying opportunities amid stormy seas
Uncertainty in the Chinese internet company space has been elevated over the past few years. We believe that investors may benefit from tactical approach, rather than broad-based industry exposure.
Semiconductor industry faces near-term headwinds, long-term growth
Global Industry Analyst Eunhak Bae analyzes short-term headwinds and long-term opportunities in the semiconductor industry.
Perspectives on today’s alternative investment environment
Take a quick tour of the alternative investment environment with investors from across our macro research and hedge fund teams, as they explore the geopolitical landscape, macro volatility, and key trends like climate-change adaptation and digital tokenization.
China’s economy: Poised to exceed expectations in 2023
With the bar set so low for China's economy, Macro Strategist Santiago Millan thinks it won't take much for an upside surprise in 2023.
A new blueprint for US trade: Building a more resilient, sustainable, and competitive economy
Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan explains how the Biden administration is reshaping US trade policy to reflect today's global realities, including supply-chain challenges, decarbonization, and geopolitical turmoil.
2023: The year of disinflation for the US economy
In the coming year, US Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan expects to see inflation begin to decline, the economy adjust to higher interest rates, and labor markets feel the pain of restrictive Fed policy.
2023 Global Economic Outlook
Our experts share their global economic outlook on the developments that they think will transform the macroeconomic and geopolitical landscape in 2023 and beyond.
Markets take US election results in stride (for now, anyway)
Client Portfolio Manager Jitu Naidu weighs in on the markets' response to, and other potential implications of, the recently held US midterm elections.