Monetary policy

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FOMC: Stable policy amid market volatility

The Fed is holding steady amid market turmoil. See our quick notes on the FOMC's March policy statement, forecasts, and the Fed chair's press conference. 

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2025-03-31
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Is the US economy really that different since COVID?

US economists have been touting the resilience of the post-COVID economic rebound. Brij Khurana dissects several key economic indicators to see what's really changed since 2019. 

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2025-03-31
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Income: the hard worker in your portfolio deserves more credit

Income from cash is good but income from bonds is better. In a less certain macro environment, Alex King, Supriya Menon and John Mullins think the case for income only gets stronger. How can investors make the most of opportunities? 

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2025-03-31
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The shifting liquidity landscape: What’s at stake?

The beginning of the end could be in sight for the Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening (QT) program. US Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan considers the Fed's next steps and what they could mean for banks, liquidity, and markets broadly.

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2025-01-31
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Bizarro World: Could 2024 be the opposite of 2023?

Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Brij Khurana details the dynamics that may upend investor expectations of a repeat of 2023 this year.

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2025-01-17
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Fork in the road: Slowdown or reacceleration ahead?

Markets seem to expect a much smoother ride in 2024, but are they too optimistic? Members of our Investment Strategy & Solutions Group offer their macro and market outlook, including their latest views on equities, bonds, and commodities. 

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2026-01-31
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Fed’s projections yielded mixed results this year — what’s in store for 2024?

Our Fed watcher opines on 2023 policy and looks ahead to 2024.

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2024-03-31
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Should investors prepare for a rate hike in Japan?

Investment Directors Marco Giordano and Masahiko Loo discuss why a rate rise in Japan may occur sooner than markets expect.

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2024-12-31
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The US economy in 2024: A tale of transition

Our US macro expert sees changes in consumer and investment spending in the coming year, and highlights what she'll be watching for in terms of policy, politics, and profit margins.

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2024-06-30
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You snooze, you may lose: The case for bonds

There are signs the Federal Reserve's rate-hiking cycle may be nearing an end, but some uncertainty remains. With that in mind, Multi-Asset Strategist Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson considers the timing of a move from cash to bonds.

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2024-11-30
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Fed not yet willing to declare victory on inflation

We think the Fed is done raising rates for this cycle, despite the likelihood that they are being overly optimistic about inflation. Read to find out why.

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2024-03-31
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US regional banking sector update

We explore how banking regulation and legislation could impact US regional banks, including highlighting the potential for M&A activity and for dispersion to drive long/short opportunities.

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2024-08-31
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Financials amid rising dispersion

We explore why we believe dispersion across stocks, sectors, and geographies is supporting numerous secular themes in long/short investing in financials.

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2024-09-30
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After the US downgrade: Thoughts on public debt, bond yields, and Fed policy

In the wake of the US debt downgrade by Fitch, Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan explains what worries her most about the nation's debt situation and considers the impact on the term premium and the Fed’s plans.

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2024-08-31
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Why cash won’t cut it for long: The case for bonds

Global Investment and Multi-Asset Strategist Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson and Investment Strategy Analyst Patrick Wattiau explore the relative potential benefits of bonds versus cash.

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2024-08-31
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How to interpret the Bank of Japan’s latest policy shift

We analyse the wide-ranging investment implications of the Bank of Japan's latest policy shift.

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2024-08-31
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Chair Powell maintains optionality

Fixed Income Analyst Caroline Casavant shares what she thinks matters most for investors in light of the latest interest-rate hike from the Fed.

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2024-07-31
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Fed skips along the path to a pause

Jeremy Forster analyzes the Federal Reserve's decision to pause its interest-rate hiking cycle, explains why he believes it could be an extended pause, and shares the potential implications for fixed income markets.

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2024-06-30
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When the US sneezes, does the world still catch a cold?

Macro Strategist John Butler discusses the growing potential for cyclical and monetary policy divergence, despite markets pricing for the contrary, and assesses what it means for investors.

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2024-05-31
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Europe/US divergence: the ECB has further to go

How far will Europe diverge from the US? Macro Strategist Eoin O’Callaghan sees several reasons sustaining this growing divergence. 

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2024-06-30
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A quiet bull market in EM local debt?

Brian Garvey illustrates the recent strength of emerging markets local debt following an extended period of underperformance. 

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2024-06-30
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Inflation loosens its grip, but bank turmoil could put the squeeze on US growth

US Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan weighs the benefits of disinflation for consumers and companies against the risks of a credit crunch brought on by the recent bank crisis.

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2024-05-31
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Global high yield: Attractive entry points could soon emerge

Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Konstantin Leidman shares his outlook for high-yield fixed income for the rest of this year and beyond.

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2024-06-30
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The “money illusion” economy: Misplaced faith in markets?

Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Brij Khurana shares a skeptical view of US Federal Reserve policy, his assessment of the current market backdrop, and his view of what the future could hold.

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2024-06-30
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Asia: A growth story with longer-term momentum

Is China’s recovery already running out of steam? Macro Strategist Santiago Millán assesses the outlook for China and Asia and sees longer-term momentum for growth. 

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2024-06-30
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Did the Fed just make a policy error?

Did the Fed just make a policy error? All things considered, Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Jeremy Forster thinks the answer is yes. Learn why and what the implications could be.

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2024-05-31
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Is the long-awaited change in Japan’s fortunes finally materialising?

Portfolio Manager Dan Maguire explores why Japan may finally be exiting deflation and assesses the opportunities this structural change could create for small- and mid-cap equities.

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2024-04-30
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Three macro assumptions that could be just plain wrong

Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Brij Khurana offers his non-consensus take on three entrenched, but potentially flawed, beliefs in today's market environment.

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2024-04-30
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Putting the global economy to the test

With economic and market fault lines emerging as a result of higher interest rates, members of our Investment Strategy team reassess the investment landscape and offer their views on equities, fixed income, and commodities.

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2023-10-31
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High-yield bonds: Too early to get aggressive?

Our high-yield team suggests a somewhat defensive risk posture for now but expects opportunities to take on greater risk to arise later this year.

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2024-04-30
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Macro risks to watch in this rapidly oscillating global cycle

Macro Strategist John Butler explores the two key questions he believes macro investors should focus on in the current volatile environment.

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2024-03-31
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Financial stability versus inflation: The Fed’s balancing act has gotten much trickier

The Fed’s policy calculus has clearly changed somewhat over the past few weeks but the central bank may not be done hiking rates just yet, says Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Jeremy Forster. 

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2024-03-31
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Securitized assets: Caught in the storm but with scattered bright spots

Securitized assets have been on the front lines of the ongoing turmoil in the banking sector, but not all securitized subsectors appear equally vulnerable.

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2024-03-31
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Tight money: Banks feeling the squeeze of higher rates

In this curated collection, some of our experts share their latest perspectives on the ongoing turmoil in the US banking sector and its potential implications.

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2024-03-31
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Understanding the US banking sector shake-up

Investment Communications Managers Jitu Naidu and Adam Norman detail recent US bank failures and analyze the implications. (Published 14 March 2023)

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2024-03-31
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On to the next crisis: Glimpsing a post-SVB world

Amid the turmoil in the US banking sector, Global Investment Strategist Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson suggests investors consider pivoting to a “risk-management mode” that favors higher-quality assets. (Published 14 March 2023)

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2024-03-31
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Deep and diverse: Welcome to today’s Asia credit market

Two of our Singapore-based experts on Asia credit discuss the market's key features, along with how it's evolved and is likely to continue doing so.

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2024-03-31
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SVB collapse: What are the implications?

Multi-Asset Strategist Supriya Menon shares her latest perspectives on the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank Financial Group (SVB) and the unfolding implications for investors. (Published 14 March 2023)

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2024-03-31
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What does the new macro regime mean for investors?

In this Q&A with two senior market practitioners we explore what the new macro regime means for investors and what to expect next.

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2024-03-31
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India: Structural tailwinds for 2023 and beyond

Following his recent trip to India, Macro Strategist Tushar Poddar shares why he's very positive on the country's medium- to longer-term structural outlook.

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2024-03-31
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New BOJ governor: Dove, hawk… or owl?

Investment Director Masahiko Loo and Client Portfolio Manager Jitu Naidu discuss potential implications of the upcoming “changing of the guard” at the BOJ.

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2024-03-31
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Peak inflation, back to goldilocks? Not so fast

Portfolio Manager Nicholas Petrucelli explains why the market could be underestimating just how complex and volatile the global economic cycle is and details the implications for inflation.

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2024-02-29
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February Fed meeting: Chair Powell strikes a more optimistic tone

The Fed just might still be able to engineer the hoped-for "soft landing" but it's not going to be easy, says Fixed Income Analyst Caroline Casavant.

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2023-09-30
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Why global investors should watch the Bank of Japan

Macro Strategist John Butler explores why global investors should watch the Bank of Japan and what is likely to happen next.

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2024-01-31
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Spread the risk: Our top three fixed income diversifiers for 2023

Fixed Income Strategist Amar Reganti highlights three types of strategies that may be well positioned to provide fixed income portfolio diversification going forward.

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2024-01-31
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CLOs: Poised to outperform in 2023?

Collateralized loan obligations (CLOs) have been sparking investor interest lately — and with good reason, say Investment Director Andrew Bayerl and Investment Specialist Celene Klimas.

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2024-01-31
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Multi-Asset Outlook — A rocky road to recovery in 2023

Markets may be jumping the gun when it comes to expectations for a policy pivot and the likely risk-asset rewards. Members of our Investment Strategy team still see bumps in the economic road, though their outlook has brightened a bit when it comes to China and other emerging markets.

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2024-07-31
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Could Japan face a UK-style pension crisis?

Investment Director Masahiko Loo explores the risks of Japan facing a UK-style pension crisis and identifies fundamental reasons that make Japanese pension funds inherently less vulnerable. 

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2024-01-31
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Take credit: Our five best credit market ideas for 2023

Fixed Income Strategist Amar Reganti highlights credit market opportunities that he expects to arise over the course of 2023, against a backdrop of slowing growth.

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2024-01-31
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Navigating the new global economy in 2023

This executive summary distills the points of view of several of our 2023 Outlook authors. Discover the risks and opportunities they see as we enter a new economic and market regime.

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2023-12-31
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High yield: Opportunity to pivot in 2023?

Our high-yield bond portfolio managers have a guardedly optimistic outlook on the market and believe security selection will be key to benchmark-relative outperformance in 2023. 

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2024-01-31
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Currency outlook: Nearing the end of USD exceptionalism?

Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Martin Harvey and Investment Communications Manager Jitu Naidu consider the present state of and outlook for the US dollar.

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2023-12-31
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The Fed’s unenviable task for 2023

Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Jeremy Forster offers his forward-looking take on the Fed's comments and latest rate hike coming out of its December meeting. 

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2023-12-31
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Hidden in plain sight: Overlooked opportunities in investment-grade credit 

Fixed Income Strategist Amar Reganti and Investment Specialist Geoff Austein-Miller highlight some relatively simple, straightforward ways to implement a positive view on high-quality corporate credit. 

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2023-12-31
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Why Europe could surprise in 2023 

Eoin O’Callaghan and John Butler discuss the contrasting prospects of the Euro Area and the UK and why 2023 could bring positive surprises in the region.

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2023-12-31
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Multi-Asset Outlook — Higher rates for longer: What does it mean for markets?

For central banks, the inflation fight is on, but the policy and market responses will vary in the coming months. Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson and Supriya Menon discuss the implications for equities, bonds, and commodities.

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2023-11-30
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2023: The year of disinflation for the US economy

In the coming year, US Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan expects to see inflation begin to decline, the economy adjust to higher interest rates, and labor markets feel the pain of restrictive Fed policy.

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2023-12-31
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Markets take US election results in stride (for now, anyway)

Client Portfolio Manager Jitu Naidu weighs in on the markets' response to, and other potential implications of, the recently held US midterm elections.

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2023-01-31
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2023 Equity Outlook
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EM equity in 2023: Will the longest bear market in history continue?

We explore three key considerations for EM investors in today’s challenging environment and highlight potential winners and losers in 2023.

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2023-12-31
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2023 Bond Market Outlook
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Emerging markets debt outlook: A glass half full or half empty?

Against a still-challenging global backdrop for emerging markets, Macro Strategist Gillian Edgeworth highlights opportunities created by extreme credit spread dispersion across individual countries.

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2023-12-31
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High-yield bonds in 2023: Fortune favours the patient

Amid ongoing dislocation in the high-yield market, Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Konstantin Leidman sees opportunities for investors to take advantage of potentially attractive valuations.

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2023-12-31
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Inflation, rates, and volatility: The best defense is a good offense

Insurance Strategist Tim Antonelli shares his latest multi-asset views for insurers, including the need to balance defensive portfolio strategies with continued income and return generation.

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2023-04-15
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November FOMC meeting: How slow can the Fed go?

Investment Specialist Caroline Casavant shares her takeaways from the November FOMC meeting, including thoughts on the likely pace of further Fed interest-rate hikes.

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2023-01-31
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Bank of Japan policy shift: Waiting for the other shoe to drop?

Client Portfolio Manager Jitu Naidu and Investment Director Masahiko Loo share their take on the consensus view that Japan has reached several key inflection points.

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2023-01-31
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2023 Macro and rates outlook: Goodbye easy money, hello regime change

Macro Strategist John Butler highlights the impact of macroeconomic "regime change" on global inflation and interest rates, with potential implications for investors.

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2023-12-31
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Can agency MBS bounce back from dismal performance?

Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Brian Conroy and two colleagues weigh in on the mortgage-backed securities (MBS) market in the wake of a very challenging month.

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2023-01-31
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Equity market volatility is perking up: Why now?

The recent uptick in equity volatility may be about looming macro and systemic risks in today's uncertain environment. Director of Global Derivatives Gordy Lawrence explains.

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2023-10-31
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UK in the eye of the storm: which countries might be next?
Macro Strategist John Butler provides his latest take on what's happening in the UK and its broader global implications.
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2022-12-31
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The Fed’s “lean, leave, then clean” strategy
US inflation could prove "stickier" than many observers think. How might that influence Fed policy into 2023? Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Jeremy Forster opines.
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2022-12-31
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The shifting equity/bond correlation: Implications for portfolio construction
Multi-Asset Strategist Nick Samouilhan looks at what's driving the change in the all-important equity/bond relationship and what can be done about it.
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2023-09-30
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No more Mr. Nice Guy? Fed Chair Powell talks tough on inflation

Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Brij Khurana offers his latest thoughts on Fed policy following the central bank's recent Jackson Hole meeting.

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2023-09-30
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Investment takeaways from the latest inflation data
With 2022's structural inflation story still very much intact, now may be a particularly opportune time for investors to add real-asset and inflation-sensitive exposures to their portfolios.
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2022-11-30
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The shrinking central bank balance sheet: A credit market opportunity
With the shift in central bank policy, heightened volatility and dispersion may yield a promising environment for exploiting credit market inefficiencies.
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2022-11-30
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Positioning for a “pricey” recession scenario
Client Portfolio Manager Jitu Naidu and Fixed Income Strategist Amar Reganti offer portfolio positioning ideas for the potential recession scenario that may lie ahead.
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2022-11-30
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A shifting macro landscape: QE, China, and Europe
We explore the changing macro environment, highlighting the investment implications of the end of quantitative easing programs, the state of the Chinese cycle, and an evolving outlook on Europe.
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2023-08-31
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High inflation and slow growth in Europe: How should investors respond?
Multi-Asset Strategist Supriya Menon explores the asset allocation implications of high inflation and slow growth in Europe.
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2023-08-31
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Why today’s fixed income market is fertile ground for active management
Skilled active management has potential to shine in times of increased dispersion across fixed income sectors and regions. Now may be one of those times.
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2022-12-31
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Emerging local debt markets: Time to wade in?
Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Michael Henry sees positive trends across ELD fundamentals, valuations, and technicals that could be tailwinds for these markets going forward.
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2023-08-31
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Reckoning with recession risk: Why this one may be “pricey”
Client Portfolio Manager Jitu Naidu shares his latest take on the looming risk of a global economic recession and related issues.
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2022-11-30
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What can history teach us about today's markets? A framework for drawing comparisons
Members of our Investment Strategy Group explain how they identify similarities to past market environments and what their approach is signaling about today's conditions.
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2022-11-30
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Will the Fed send the US economy into a recession?
Multi-Asset Strategist Adam Berger and US Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan consider the broad impact of Fed rate hikes and how asset allocators should respond.
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2023-07-31
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Fed rate hikes: A tailwind for bonds?
Global Investment Strategist Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson believes higher-quality, longer-duration bonds may prove resilient even if the Fed keeps raising short-term rates into 2023.
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2022-10-31
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What next for the euro area after the ECB’s historic hike?
Eoin O'Callaghan and Marco Giordano explore the ECB’s likely next steps and the potential future path of inflation and growth in the euro area.
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2023-07-05
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July Fed meeting: Rising inflation vs falling growth
After another rate hike, the Fed must balance moderating growth with mounting inflation. Caroline Casavant opines on how the central bank might navigate this dilemma.
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2022-10-31
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Mid-2022 Inflation Outlook
We explore the current inflation environment's significant impacts on asset markets, anticipated relief in supply-chain pressures, and opportunities in commodities and enduring assets.
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2023-07-31
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us inflation supply chains to the rescue
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US inflation: Supply chains to the rescue?
Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan shares her inflation outlook, including the prospects for supply-chain normalization, and her views on the market implications.
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2023-07-31
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Credit investing against a slower-growth, higher-inflation backdrop
The significant flattening of the US Treasury yield curve in recent months has some prognosticators calling for an impending US recession. Not so fast, says Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Rob Burn.
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2022-07-31
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Mid-2022 Asset Class Outlook
We offer perspectives on growth and value equities and explore ideas for shoring up your fixed income flank amid the evolving economic and market environment.
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2023-07-31
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Three overlooked opportunities in today’s markets
Portfolio Manager Brian Garvey highlights three large macro dislocations in today's environment that he believes the capital markets have yet to price in.
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2023-06-30
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Timely musings on Fed policy and inflation
With rising inflation and interest rates dominating the financial headlines in recent weeks, I have been fielding a flurry of colleague and client questions about the likely future trajectory of US monetary policy. While I don’t claim to have all the answers, especially with so many “known unknowns” as of this writing, here are my latest thoughts.
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2022-08-30
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US inflation risk, angry bondholders, and silver linings
Here are quick thoughts on some common questions I’ve been asked recently about Fed policy, yields, the US dollar, and financial markets.
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2022-08-31
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Is it too soon to call a “top” in US interest rates?
Are we nearing the top of the 10-year treasury rate?
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2023-05-31
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Empirical duration: reason for optimism on risk assets?
While rising rates often produce negative bond returns, combining the concept of empirical duration with a positive outlook on the credit cycle may bode well for some fixed income sectors' return prospects going forward. Investment Analyst Will Prenits and Investment Director Tobias Ripka explain.
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2022-07-31
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Global convertibles: Poised to benefit from five structural tailwinds
Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Michael Barry and Investment Specialist Raina Dunkelberger believe global convertible bonds are likely to outperform other fixed income sectors over an investment time horizon of approximately two to three years. Learn why.
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2022-07-31
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Bank loans: Resiliency amid volatility
In the face of ongoing geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty, including the prospect of steadily rising interest rates, our floating-rate bank loan team maintains a bullish outlook for the sector. Emboldened by a strong US economy and mounting inflationary pressures, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) enacted its first 25 basis-point (bp) increase in interest rates since 2018. Additionally, Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s recent rhetoric has become more hawkish, including suggesting the possibility of a 50 bp rate hike in the coming months. The market is now pricing in the fed funds rate to rise to around 2.5% by the end of 2022 (from its current target of 25-50 bps).
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2022-07-31
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Global credit: Where do we go from here?
Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Mahmoud El-Shaer explores why 2022 may be a momentous year for global credit and sets out a framework to think through potential investment implications. 2022 promises to be another challenging year for central banks as they attempt to normalise policies in the face of surging inflation, while navigating the growing fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Since 2009, there has essentially been one trade in capital markets: riding a huge wave of central bank liquidity in support of the financial system and the economy, with the G4 central banks alone pumping approximately US$20 trillion into the system via quantitative easing (QE).
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2022-07-31
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How will Russia’s invasion of Ukraine transform the euro area? Four potential paths
As the tragedy in Ukraine unfolds, Macro Strategist John Butler assesses possible implications of the conflict for Europe and the euro area. He outlines four potential paths.
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2023-03-31
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Credit and equity performance around Fed hiking cycles
One of the discussion topics du jour is how the credit and equity markets might react to the US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest-rate hikes that are widely anticipated in the coming months. As is often the case with me, I find it helpful here to refer to past hiking regimes and market performances as a sort of guidepost. The proof’s in the pudding To wit, I examined the historical returns of both US credit (for this purpose, proxied by corporate high-yield bonds) and US equities (represented by the S&P 500 Index) during the six months before the first rate increase of a Fed hiking cycle through the 12 months after said increase.
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2022-05-31
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