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Article
6 min
Breaking concentration: big picture thinking with small-cap equities
How to overcome the risks associated with today's concentrated market? Investment Director John Mullins explores why small-cap equities could be part of the answer.
By
6 min
Article
2025-07-31
Article
14 min
All-time highs and CPIs: What comes next?
Global fundamentals have kept markets content so far this year, but will politics sour the mood? Members of our Investment Strategy & Solutions Group offer their views on the second half of 2024, including on equities, bonds, and commodities.
14 min
Article
2025-01-08
Article
3 min
June FOMC meeting: May disinflation is welcome, but is not enough for a rate cut
Fixed Income Analyst Caroline Casavant discusses what June's FOMC meeting tells us about the US Federal Reserve’s latest thinking on interest-rate cuts.
3 min
Article
2025-06-30
Article
8 min
Has the European credit cycle been extended?
2024 has kept fixed income investors busy. Yet, despite lingering inflation and rate volatility, European credit markets have remained strong. Are we looking at an extended credit cycle? And if so, what does this mean for investors?
8 min
Article
2025-06-30
Article
5 min
Battle for the supply side of the economy: US election implications
Starkly different policy agendas from Biden and Trump are examined in terms of how they may affect the supply side of the US economy.
5 min
Article
2025-03-31
Article
5 min
The revenge of the monetarists
Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Brij Khurana makes the case for a monetarist explanation for moderating inflation.
By
5 min
Article
2025-06-30
Article
Global Economic Outlook
Our macro strategists continue to expect that the interlinkages between countries, central bank policies, and market pricing will change, creating potentially attractive opportunities for active portfolio management and security selection.
Article
2025-06-30
Article
8 min
Thriving or surviving? The state of the US consumer and the economic implications
Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan examines the condition of the all-important consumer, including the outlook for spending, the effects of inflation and prevailing interest rates, and the consequences for the overall economy.
8 min
Article
2025-06-30
Article
2 min
Powell back to waiting on inflation data
Our expert's key takeaways from the May FOMC meeting.
2 min
Article
2025-05-31
Article
6 min
The Fed’s lessons learned from its COVID response
Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Brij Khurana breaks down the central bank's policy decisions during the pandemic and explains how they continue to affect financial markets.
By
6 min
Article
2025-04-30
Article
4 min
The immigration surge: Political challenge, economic blessing?
Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan considers the impact of rising immigration, a top issue in this year's US elections, on growth, interest rates, and the labor market.
4 min
Article
2025-04-30
Quick Take
FOMC: Stable policy amid market volatility
The Fed is holding steady amid market turmoil. See our quick notes on the FOMC's March policy statement, forecasts, and the Fed chair's press conference.
Quick Take
2025-03-31
Article
Is the US economy really that different since COVID?
US economists have been touting the resilience of the post-COVID economic rebound. Brij Khurana dissects several key economic indicators to see what's really changed since 2019.
By
Article
2025-03-31
Article
12 min
How to nurture a growth mindset in a higher-yielding landscape
In a higher-yield world, can fixed income deliver meaningful growth? John Mullins, Supriya Menon and Alex King explore how high-yield bonds may offer a powerful opportunity for growth - as well as a cushion against uncertainty.
12 min
Article
2025-03-31
Article
5 min
Income: the hard worker in your portfolio deserves more credit
Income from cash is good but income from bonds is better. In a less certain macro environment, Alex King, Supriya Menon and John Mullins think the case for income only gets stronger. How can investors make the most of opportunities?
5 min
Article
2025-03-31
Article
7 min
Adopt a new vantage point for diversifying your portfolio
Supriya Menon, Alex King and John Mullins explore why a diversified mixed of fixed income exposure is a key component of a nuanced approach to diversification in today's cyclical macro regime.
7 min
Article
2025-01-31
Article
Facing the inflation dilemma head on
Inflation has already fallen much quicker than most expected. However, there are convincing reasons why inflation might be higher and more volatile going forward. What are the implications for asset allocation?
By
Article
2025-02-23
Article
Fork in the road: Slowdown or reacceleration ahead?
Markets seem to expect a much smoother ride in 2024, but are they too optimistic? Members of our Investment Strategy & Solutions Group offer their macro and market outlook, including their latest views on equities, bonds, and commodities.
Article
2026-01-31
Quick Take
Peak inflation, back to goldilocks? Not so fast
Portfolio Manager Nicholas Petrucelli explains why the market could be underestimating just how complex and volatile the global economic cycle is and details the implications for inflation.
Quick Take
2024-02-29
Quick Take
February Fed meeting: Chair Powell strikes a more optimistic tone
The Fed just might still be able to engineer the hoped-for "soft landing" but it's not going to be easy, says Fixed Income Analyst Caroline Casavant.
Quick Take
2023-09-30
Quick Take
US recession risk: No longer if, but when and how bad
Portfolio Managers Brij Khurana, Brian Garvey, and Nick Petrucelli believe many observers are underestimating the severity of a potential US recession this year.
Quick Take
2024-01-31
Article
Navigating the new global economy in 2023
This executive summary distills the points of view of several of our 2023 Outlook authors. Discover the risks and opportunities they see as we enter a new economic and market regime.
Article
2023-12-31
Picture this: Our 2023 economic forecast in five charts
We explain the shifts the market is undergoing, analyze the implications for different asset classes, and identify potential risks and opportunities in a series of visuals.
2023-12-31
Quick Take
The Fed’s unenviable task for 2023
Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Jeremy Forster offers his forward-looking take on the Fed's comments and latest rate hike coming out of its December meeting.
Quick Take
2023-12-31
Video
Perspectives on today’s alternative investment environment
Take a quick tour of the alternative investment environment with investors from across our macro research and hedge fund teams, as they explore the geopolitical landscape, macro volatility, and key trends like climate-change adaptation and digital tokenization.
Video
2023-11-30
Article
China’s economy: Poised to exceed expectations in 2023
With the bar set so low for China's economy, Macro Strategist Santiago Millan thinks it won't take much for an upside surprise in 2023.
Article
2023-12-31
Quick Take
Hidden in plain sight: Overlooked opportunities in investment-grade credit
Fixed Income Strategist Amar Reganti and Investment Specialist Geoff Austein-Miller highlight some relatively simple, straightforward ways to implement a positive view on high-quality corporate credit.
Quick Take
2023-12-31
Article
Why Europe could surprise in 2023
Eoin O’Callaghan and John Butler discuss the contrasting prospects of the Euro Area and the UK and why 2023 could bring positive surprises in the region.
Article
2023-12-31
Article
Geopolitical outlook: Shifting policies, structural advantages?
Geopolitical Strategist Thomas Mucha and Macro Strategist Santiago Millán look at five geopolitical themes they believe investors should watch in 2023.
Article
2023-12-31
Article
2023: The year of disinflation for the US economy
In the coming year, US Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan expects to see inflation begin to decline, the economy adjust to higher interest rates, and labor markets feel the pain of restrictive Fed policy.
Article
2023-12-31
Article
Emerging markets debt outlook: A glass half full or half empty?
Against a still-challenging global backdrop for emerging markets, Macro Strategist Gillian Edgeworth highlights opportunities created by extreme credit spread dispersion across individual countries.
Article
2023-12-31
Quick Take
Three tailwinds that could power CLO equity in 2023 and beyond
Three members of our fixed income team argue that the headwinds currently facing CLO equity should give way to improved returns in 2023 and beyond.
Quick Take
2023-11-30
Quick Take
November FOMC meeting: How slow can the Fed go?
Investment Specialist Caroline Casavant shares her takeaways from the November FOMC meeting, including thoughts on the likely pace of further Fed interest-rate hikes.
Quick Take
2023-01-31
Quick Take
Bank of Japan policy shift: Waiting for the other shoe to drop?
Client Portfolio Manager Jitu Naidu and Investment Director Masahiko Loo share their take on the consensus view that Japan has reached several key inflection points.
Quick Take
2023-01-31
Video
A new economic era: Why inflation, volatility, and cycles are back
Macro Strategist John Butler argues that a seismic global shift is underway that will disrupt the macro dynamics of the past two decades, challenging long-held investment assumptions.
By
Video
2023-12-31
Quick Take
Can agency MBS bounce back from dismal performance?
Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Brian Conroy and two colleagues weigh in on the mortgage-backed securities (MBS) market in the wake of a very challenging month.
Quick Take
2023-01-31
Whitepaper
Macro renaissance: The opportunity ahead for investors
As the global economy and financial markets transition to a new, potentially more volatile era, macro investment strategies may be well positioned to take advantage of market dislocations and greater asset price differentiation.
Whitepaper
2023-10-31
Article
After the UK sell-off: what’s next for global markets and investors?
Co-Head of Investment Strategy Natasha Brook-Walters and Head of Macro Strategy John Butler discuss the implications of the recent sell-off in UK markets for global markets and investors.
Article
2022-12-30
Quick Take
The short answer, according to Fixed Income Portfolio Managers Jeff Heuer and David Marshak, is that many can. And, they believe bank loans can outperform many other fixed-income sectors over the next 12 months.
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Quick Take
2023-01-31
Quick Take
US inflation could prove "stickier" than many observers think. How might that influence Fed policy into 2023? Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Jeremy Forster opines.
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Quick Take
2022-12-31
Article
US Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan considers the economic implications of the climate- and energy-related spending provisions in the IRA, including the potential for higher productivity.
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Article
2023-09-30
Quick Take
Applying a historical analysis to today's market, Multi-Asset Portfolio Manager Nick Petrucelli believes US equities have not yet found a near-term bottom.
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Quick Take
2022-11-30
Quick Take
Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Brij Khurana offers his latest thoughts on Fed policy following the central bank's recent Jackson Hole meeting.
By
Quick Take
2023-09-30
Quick Take
With 2022's structural inflation story still very much intact, now may be a particularly opportune time for investors to add real-asset and inflation-sensitive exposures to their portfolios.
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Quick Take
2022-11-30
Quick Take
The latest Wellington investor survey shows that our investment teams are increasingly concerned about the economic cycle, with 45% seeing a global recession over the next 12 months as the most likely outcome.
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Quick Take
2022-11-30
Quick Take
Client Portfolio Manager Jitu Naidu and Fixed Income Strategist Amar Reganti offer portfolio positioning ideas for the potential recession scenario that may lie ahead.
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Quick Take
2022-11-30
Quick Take
Skilled active management has potential to shine in times of increased dispersion across fixed income sectors and regions. Now may be one of those times.
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Quick Take
2022-12-31
Article
Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Michael Henry sees positive trends across ELD fundamentals, valuations, and technicals that could be tailwinds for these markets going forward.
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Article
2023-08-31
Quick Take
Client Portfolio Manager Jitu Naidu shares his latest take on the looming risk of a global economic recession and related issues.
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By
Quick Take
2022-11-30
Quick Take
Global Investment Strategist Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson believes higher-quality, longer-duration bonds may prove resilient even if the Fed keeps raising short-term rates into 2023.
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Quick Take
2022-10-31
Article
Eoin O'Callaghan and Marco Giordano explore the ECB’s likely next steps and the potential future path of inflation and growth in the euro area.
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Article
2023-07-05
Quick Take
After another rate hike, the Fed must balance moderating growth with mounting inflation. Caroline Casavant opines on how the central bank might navigate this dilemma.
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Quick Take
2022-10-31
Article
Why the new volatile market regime may offer significantly more opportunities for longer-term global credit strategies.
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Article
2023-07-31
Article
Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan shares her inflation outlook, including the prospects for supply-chain normalization, and her views on the market implications.
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Article
2023-07-31
Article
We offer perspectives on growth and value equities and explore ideas for shoring up your fixed income flank amid the evolving economic and market environment.
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Article
2023-07-31
Article
We believe heightened geopolitical uncertainty, and the new macro environment of deglobalization, higher inflation, greater global cyclicality and volatility will disrupt and drive markets.
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Article
2023-07-31
Quick Take
Following a challenging period for agency MBS, members of our securitized team now see attractive opportunities in the space and believe actively managed strategies may be the best way for many investors to capitalize.
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Quick Take
2022-07-31
Quick Take
With rising inflation and interest rates dominating the financial headlines in recent weeks, I have been fielding a flurry of colleague and client questions about the likely future trajectory of US monetary policy. While I don’t claim to have all the answers, especially with so many “known unknowns” as of this writing, here are my latest thoughts.
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Quick Take
2022-08-30
Quick Take
Here are quick thoughts on some common questions I’ve been asked recently about Fed policy, yields, the US dollar, and financial markets.
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Quick Take
2022-08-31
Quick Take
Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Michael Barry and Investment Specialist Raina Dunkelberger believe global convertible bonds are likely to outperform other fixed income sectors over an investment time horizon of approximately two to three years. Learn why.
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Quick Take
2022-07-31
Quick Take
In the face of ongoing geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty, including the prospect of steadily rising interest rates, our floating-rate bank loan team maintains a bullish outlook for the sector. Emboldened by a strong US economy and mounting inflationary pressures, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) enacted its first 25 basis-point (bp) increase in interest rates since 2018. Additionally, Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s recent rhetoric has become more hawkish, including suggesting the possibility of a 50 bp rate hike in the coming months. The market is now pricing in the fed funds rate to rise to around 2.5% by the end of 2022 (from its current target of 25-50 bps).
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Quick Take
2022-07-31
Quick Take
In his latest Top of Mind session, Multi-Asset Strategist Adam Berger addressed a wide range of what-if scenarios on the minds of our clients. See what he has to say on Russia, China, cryptocurrencies, the IPO market, and many other topics in this brief article.
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Quick Take
2022-06-30
Article
Equity Portfolio Manager Greg Mattiko challenges investors to look at actions rather than conjecture when considering reduced exposure to China.
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Article
2023-03-31
Article
Macro Strategist Gillian Edgeworth assesses recent developments in the escalating Russia/Ukraine conflict and highlights five key implications.
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Article
2023-03-31
Article
In his latest Top of Mind session, Multi-Asset Strategist Adam Berger addressed a wide range of what-if scenarios on the minds of our clients. See what he has to say on Russia, China, cryptocurrencies, the IPO market, and many other topics in this brief article.
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Article
2023-02-28
Event replay
Three megatrends will transform Asia’s investment landscape over the coming year, concur Wellington’s strategist panel.
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Event replay
2023-03-31
Quick Take
The emerging markets (EM) local debt sector (as measured by the JP Morgan Government Bond Index – Emerging Markets Global Diversified) just posted its worst calendar-year performance since 2013, returning -8.75% against the headwind of higher EM local interest rates. The underlying culprit? EM inflation surprised to the upside in 2021, forcing a number of EM central banks to raise their policy interest rates in an effort to curb the impact.
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By
Quick Take
2022-09-30
Quick Take
We believe 2022 will be the year when macroeconomic and political developments challenge two deep-rooted misperceptions about the euro area:
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Quick Take
2022-04-30
Quick Take
For fixed income investors who are worried about the double threat of higher inflation and rising rates, there are strategies that may help insulate a bond portfolio. Fixed Income Investment Director Amar Reganti and Investment Specialist Jonathan Tan offer up some suggestions.
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By
Quick Take
2022-02-28
How worried should investors be about the risk of stagflation? Portfolio Manager Nick Petrucelli offers his take, digging into previous occurrences for clues about the causes that may be most relevant today and outlining the potential outcomes and capital market implications.
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2022-12-31
With inflation on the rise and all eyes seemingly on the Fed these days, Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Jeremy Forster shares his takeaways from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)'s December 2021 meeting.
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2022-07-29
Article
Our fixed income outlook for 2022, examines our views on inflation and interest rates and the role central banks will play in the coming year.
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Article
2022-11-15
We discuss how today’s market impacts growth companies, including which areas are well positioned for the year ahead.
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2022-12-31
Article
We discuss how today's market impacts growth companies, including which areas are well positioned for the year ahead.
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Article
2022-12-31
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