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The views expressed are those of the author at the time of writing. Other teams may hold different views and make different investment decisions. The value of your investment may become worth more or less than at the time of original investment. While any third-party data used is considered reliable, its accuracy is not guaranteed. For professional, institutional, or accredited investors only.
In recent months, significant investor concerns have arisen around persistently high inflation, the specter of rising US interest rates, and the potential for economic and/or market disruptions from these risks. Geopolitical escalations in Russia and Ukraine have added yet another layer of complexity to financial markets and the macroeconomic environment. We’d like to highlight four key themes that we believe may support the securitized credit asset class against this challenging backdrop:
By way of historical context, we looked at recent US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate-hiking cycles to see how securitized credit assets have performed relative to other major fixed income sectors during rising-rate periods. In the absence of an all-inclusive market index to use as a proxy for the securitized space, we instead focused on various subsectors that we consider to be representative. As shown in Figure 1, the securitized subsectors generally performed well in rising-rate environments, producing positive total returns.
While credit spread levels have compressed meaningfully from those reached at the onset of the pandemic, we believe the securitized asset class continues to offer an attractive risk/return profile compared to many other fixed income spread sectors. Indeed, many securitized subsectors may benefit from rising inflation and interest rates in the coming months.
While the current market sell-off (driven by the Russian invasion of Ukraine) makes the entry point to the securitized asset class more attractive, we remain confident in its fundamentals. And from a longer-term strategic standpoint, we believe the asset class can play a structural, diversifying role in many investor portfolios.
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Fed not yet willing to declare victory on inflation
We think the Fed is done raising rates for this cycle, despite the likelihood that they are being overly optimistic about inflation. Read to find out why.
How to interpret the Bank of Japan’s latest policy shift
We analyse the wide-ranging investment implications of the Bank of Japan's latest policy shift.
US loses its AAA rating (again)
US Macro Strategist Michael Medeiros analyzes Fitch's recent downgrade of US credit quality and explores the bigger issues at play.
More green shoots: Tracking trends in sustainable debt issuance
While growth in the sustainable debt market has been uneven, certain pockets offer substantial opportunities. Two of our fixed income investment professionals weigh in.
How do bond investors approach the new volatile regime?
Wellington fixed income experts provide an analysis on how to navigate short-term volatility and reposition portfolios for the structural changes occurring in fixed income markets. Watch the replay here.
High-yield bonds: Too early to get aggressive?
Our high-yield team suggests a somewhat defensive risk posture for now but expects opportunities to take on greater risk to arise later this year.
High yield: Opportunity to pivot in 2023?
Our high-yield bond portfolio managers have a guardedly optimistic outlook on the market and believe security selection will be key to benchmark-relative outperformance in 2023.
How to find potential in volatile European high-yield markets?
Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Konstantin Leidman discusses why European high-yield investors need to be ready for both further volatility and the emergence of new opportunities.
High-yield bonds in 2023: Fortune favours the patient
Amid ongoing dislocation in the high-yield market, Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Konstantin Leidman sees opportunities for investors to take advantage of potentially attractive valuations.
Credit market outlook: Partly sunny with a chance of good value
In his 2023 credit market outlook, Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Rob Burn highlights some potentially attractive opportunities in the wake of this year's market sell-off.