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This is a section of our 2023 Mid-year Investment Outlook, where specialists from across our investment platform share insights on the economic and market forces that we expect to influence portfolios in the second half of this year.
Despite the current market pricing, we think that many of the factors that contributed to the central bank convergence over the past three decades have now ended or started to shift into reverse. As a result, we expect the interlinkages between countries, central bank policies, and market pricing to change, creating potentially attractive opportunities for active portfolio management and security selection. In this collection, we examine the continued economic evolution at the global level and explore region-specific macro opportunities and risks.
Outlook contents
When the US sneezes, does the world still catch a cold?
Macro Strategist John Butler discusses the growing potential for cyclical and monetary policy divergence, despite markets pricing for the contrary, and assesses what it means for investors.
Inflation loosens its grip, but bank turmoil could put the squeeze on US growth
US Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan weighs the benefits of disinflation for consumers and companies against the risks of a credit crunch brought on by the recent bank crisis.
Europe/US divergence: the ECB has further to go
How far will Europe diverge from the US? Macro Strategist Eoin O’Callaghan sees several reasons sustaining this growing divergence.
Asia: A growth story with longer-term momentum
Is China’s recovery already running out of steam? Macro Strategist Santiago Millán assesses the outlook for China and Asia and sees longer-term momentum for growth.
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Will emerging Asia leapfrog the energy transition?
Decarbonizing while maintaining economic growth presents tremendous challenges for developing countries in Asia. Is technological innovation the solution?
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