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Global Economic Outlook

Our macro strategists continue to expect that the interlinkages between countries, central bank policies, and market pricing will change, creating potentially attractive opportunities for active portfolio management and security selection.

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2025-06-30
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Monthly Market Snapshot — April 2024

A monthly update on equity, fixed income, currency, and commodity markets.

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2025-05-31
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Iran/Israel conflict: What can we expect?

Our expert examines the recent attacks, the threat of escalation, and the dynamics at play in the region.

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2024-10-31
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Financial Market Review

A quarterly update on equity, fixed income, currency, and commodity markets.

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2025-04-30
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Monthly Market Snapshot — March 2024

A monthly update on equity, fixed income, currency, and commodity markets.

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2025-04-30
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Biden 2.0: National security and investment themes

The geopolitical and investment implications of a potential second Biden term.

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2025-04-30
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Trump 2.0: National security and investment themes

Our expert examines the geopolitical and investment implications of a potential second Trump presidency.

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2025-04-30
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Monthly Market Snapshot — February 2024

A monthly update on equity, fixed income, currency, and commodity markets.

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2025-03-31
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The Trump/Biden rematch: Market implications of unprecedented policy divergence 

Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan discusses six key areas of policy debate in this year's US election that she expects will matter most to markets, from the tax and spending plans to trade and geopolitics.

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2025-03-31
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Monthly Market Snapshot — January 2024

A monthly update on equity, fixed income, currency, and commodity markets.

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2025-02-28
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Thematic investing focus: security in a world of great-power competition

In an environment of accelerating great-power competition and geopolitical instability, policymakers may place a higher emphasis on security – even at the expense of economic efficiency. What could this mean for thematic investors?

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2025-02-28
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How geopolitics and the energy transition may reshape global trade

We explore the potential near- and longer-term market effects of deteriorating US/China relations, coupled with the shift toward a low-carbon economy.

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2024-11-30
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The intersection of geopolitics and deglobalization

The geopolitical landscape is likely to remain complex and unpredictable throughout 2024. What are the key risks to watch out for and what are the implications for investors? 

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2024-11-30
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The future of investment research

Head of Investment Research Mary Pryshlak joins host Thomas Mucha to discuss the evolution of research in the asset management industry amid shifting market, technological, and geopolitical environments.  

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2024-09-30
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What if US wealth inequality reverses?

Our experts examine the role of wealth inequality in the US economy and the potential investment implications of a reversal in that dynamic.

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2024-09-30
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Why the change of direction in Germany warrants close attention

Macro Strategist Nicolas Wylenzek assesses the shifts underway in Germany and Europe more broadly, including the recent surge in the far right's popularity and the challenges associated with the energy transition.

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2024-09-30
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Reasons for optimism about Indian equities

Our experts explain why, despite criticisms that Indian equities trade at higher valuations today than they have historically, they may have the potential to help drive total returns over time.

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2024-08-31
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Generative AI: Separating hype from opportunity

Two of Wellington's tech experts join host Thomas Mucha to discuss the rapidly evolving AI landscape and separate hype from reality, highlighting everything from the industries most likely to be impacted to AI's geopolitical implications.

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2024-08-31
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Seven observations on the latest US/China executive order

Geopolitical Strategist Thomas Mucha shares his analysis of the recent Biden administration executive order, which aims to restrict investment into certain sectors in China, and details the potential investment implications. 

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2024-08-31
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Investing in the age of great-power competition

As competition between great powers intensifies, a new global order is taking shape. Geopolitical Strategist Thomas Mucha explores the investment implications of a more fragmented and fractious world.

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2024-06-30
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FX outlook: Is USD exceptionalism withering away with the Fed hiking cycle nearing an end?

Discover the status of the USD today, learn where the greenback may be headed going forward, and understand why.

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2024-01-31
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Fixed income 2023: Will opportunity keep knocking in the second half?

Learn where Fixed Income Strategist Amar Reganti sees opportunities in the fixed income market today and dive deeper into the three key themes he thinks investors should consider going forward.

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2024-06-30
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Emerging markets health care: Ready for takeoff?

Global Industry Analyst Sue Su shares her sanguine outlook on the health care sector in emerging markets, especially in China, which represents the largest opportunity in this space.

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2024-03-31
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Decoding the effects of deglobalization

Nicholas Petrucelli outlines the economic, political, and geopolitical underpinnings of deglobalization. He also demonstrates the impact this trend has today and analyzes the investment implications.

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2024-03-31
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Russia/Ukraine: One year in with no end in sight

Geopolitical Strategist Thomas Mucha analyzes the impacts of the Russia/Ukraine conflict one year in and identifies potential longer-term effects.

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2024-02-29
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Fintech regulation: Geopolitics, ESG, and crypto

Discover how fintech’s growing role as a national strategic imperative impacts regulations, the effect of ESG on regulation, and the specific need for regulation in crypto markets.

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2024-02-29
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Debt and dysfunction in Washington: The US hits the ceiling (again)

Global Investment Strategist Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson talks to Macro Strategist Mike Medeiros about the US debt-ceiling showdown and considers its potential investment implications.

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2024-02-29
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Why investing in themes for EM equities may reap rewards

Portfolio Manager Dáire Dunne outlines why he is increasingly optimistic about the potential opportunities within select EM equity themes this year.

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2024-02-29
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China internet: Identifying opportunities amid economic reopening 

China’s re-opening and economic recovery from its zero-COVID policy has bolstered our optimism in Chinese internet companies.

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2023-12-31
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Navigating the new global economy in 2023

This executive summary distills the points of view of several of our 2023 Outlook authors. Discover the risks and opportunities they see as we enter a new economic and market regime.

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2023-12-31
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Picture this: Our 2023 economic forecast in five charts

We explain the shifts the market is undergoing, analyze the implications for different asset classes, and identify potential risks and opportunities in a series of visuals. 

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2023-12-31
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Semiconductor industry faces near-term headwinds, long-term growth

Global Industry Analyst Eunhak Bae analyzes short-term headwinds and long-term opportunities in the semiconductor industry. 

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2023-12-31
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Perspectives on today’s alternative investment environment

Take a quick tour of the alternative investment environment with investors from across our macro research and hedge fund teams, as they explore the geopolitical landscape, macro volatility, and key trends like climate-change adaptation and digital tokenization.

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2023-11-30
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China’s economy: Poised to exceed expectations in 2023

With the bar set so low for China's economy, Macro Strategist Santiago Millan thinks it won't take much for an upside surprise in 2023. 

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2023-12-31
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A new blueprint for US trade: Building a more resilient, sustainable, and competitive economy

Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan explains how the Biden administration is reshaping US trade policy to reflect today's global realities, including supply-chain challenges, decarbonization, and geopolitical turmoil.

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2023-12-31
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Geopolitical outlook: Shifting policies, structural advantages?

Geopolitical Strategist Thomas Mucha and Macro Strategist Santiago Millán look at five geopolitical themes they believe investors should watch in 2023.

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2023-12-31
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2023: The year of disinflation for the US economy

In the coming year, US Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan expects to see inflation begin to decline, the economy adjust to higher interest rates, and labor markets feel the pain of restrictive Fed policy.

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2023-12-31
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Markets take US election results in stride (for now, anyway)

Client Portfolio Manager Jitu Naidu weighs in on the markets' response to, and other potential implications of, the recently held US midterm elections.

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2023-01-31
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US/China relations: What next after Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan?
Geopolitical Strategist Thomas Mucha assesses the escalating tension in US/China relations following US Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan.
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2022-11-30
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Has China’s investment landscape permanently shifted?
Multi-Asset Strategist Adam Berger and Macro Strategist Santiago Millán consider key policy-related questions hanging over the Chinese market and share some near- and long-term investment views.
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2023-08-31
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A shifting macro landscape: QE, China, and Europe
We explore the changing macro environment, highlighting the investment implications of the end of quantitative easing programs, the state of the Chinese cycle, and an evolving outlook on Europe.
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2023-08-31
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Reckoning with recession risk: Why this one may be “pricey”
Client Portfolio Manager Jitu Naidu shares his latest take on the looming risk of a global economic recession and related issues.
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2022-11-30
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How the Russia/Ukraine conflict has galvanized the West
Geopolitical Strategist Thomas Mucha provides his latest insights on the Russia/Ukraine conflict, particularly with regard to its significant and potentially enduring impact on US/EU relations.
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2022-08-30
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Monthly Market Snapshot: April 2022
A monthly update on equity, fixed income, currency, and commodity markets.
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2022-07-15
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Six reasons India may be on the cusp of a major upcycle
Numerous positive structural and cyclical factors are pointing towards a major economic upcycle in India over the next five to six years, in our view, creating a range of potential investment opportunities. We believe India’s market is supported by an evolving investment universe, powerful demographic trends, increasing urbanisation and rising wealth, export growth, geopolitical tailwinds and a supportive policy regime. These factors are coalescing at a time when the corporate deleveraging cycle of the last few years is coming to an end and a new upcycle in profitability could be beginning.
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2022-12-30
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Financial Market Review: First quarter 2022
A quarterly review of results in the global equity, fixed income, currency, and commodity markets.
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2022-10-15
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Monthly Market Snapshot: March 2022
A monthly update on equity, fixed income, currency, and commodity markets.
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2022-06-15
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Global credit: Where do we go from here?
Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Mahmoud El-Shaer explores why 2022 may be a momentous year for global credit and sets out a framework to think through potential investment implications. 2022 promises to be another challenging year for central banks as they attempt to normalise policies in the face of surging inflation, while navigating the growing fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Since 2009, there has essentially been one trade in capital markets: riding a huge wave of central bank liquidity in support of the financial system and the economy, with the G4 central banks alone pumping approximately US$20 trillion into the system via quantitative easing (QE).
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2022-07-31
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What does the Ukraine invasion mean for China?
Macro Strategist Santiago Millán argues that the scale and breadth of the sanctions on Russia have increased the uncertainty of investing in China across multiple dimensions. He explores the continued decoupling of China and the West.
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2022-06-30
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China is not Russia: Reasons to stay invested
Equity Portfolio Manager Greg Mattiko challenges investors to look at actions rather than conjecture when considering reduced exposure to China.
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2023-03-31
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War in Ukraine: Five observations on recent developments
Macro Strategist Gillian Edgeworth assesses recent developments in the escalating Russia/Ukraine conflict and highlights five key implications.
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2023-03-31
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War and markets: What's the connection?
Amid the geopolitical turmoil and tragic humanitarian fallout of the Russia/Ukraine crisis, many investors are naturally also concerned about the negative effects the escalating conflict could have on their portfolios. With that in mind, I thought I’d provide a quick snapshot of the impacts that past wars have tended to have on asset prices.
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2023-03-31
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Ten more “what if” scenarios for 2022
In his latest Top of Mind session, Multi-Asset Strategist Adam Berger addressed a wide range of what-if scenarios on the minds of our clients. See what he has to say on Russia, China, cryptocurrencies, the IPO market, and many other topics in this brief article.
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2023-02-28
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How will Russia’s invasion of Ukraine transform the euro area? Four potential paths
As the tragedy in Ukraine unfolds, Macro Strategist John Butler assesses possible implications of the conflict for Europe and the euro area. He outlines four potential paths.
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2023-03-31
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Russia/Ukraine and the commodity challenge
With commodity inventories at multi-decade lows, is rising cross-asset class volatility all but inevitable? Leveraging insights from Wellington colleagues, Thematic Strategist Trevor Noren argues that the Russia/Ukraine crisis demonstrates why the answer is likely yes.
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2023-03-31
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Geopolitical observations on Ukraine
Geopolitical Strategist Thomas Mucha integrates his observations with those of his senior-level military, intelligence and diplomatic contacts to offer insights on the potential consequences of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
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2023-03-31
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China in 2022: Embracing the volatility
China’s new antitrust, data privacy and cybersecurity regulations, combined with its education and real estate industry reforms, the continued impact of COVID-19 and rising geopolitical tensions, drove a tumultuous investment environment last year. The country’s numerous headline-grabbing changes spurred global concern given the philosophical shift towards “Common Prosperity” and the sheer scale and speed of policymaking.
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2022-08-31
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2022 Asia Investment Forum: Investment strategy in a shifting world
Three megatrends will transform Asia’s investment landscape over the coming year, concur Wellington’s strategist panel.
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2023-03-31
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Navigating a new tomorrow
In this video, Wellington investment professionals and prominent guests articulate the structural risks and opportunities that we believe will shape tomorrow’s investment strategies, ranging from medical innovation spurred by the global pandemic to technological breakthroughs, and ideas aimed at curbing or mitigating climate risk.
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2023-01-31
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Amid heightened regulation and geopolitical tension, is China still investable?
Recent regulatory announcements have sent shivers through a wide swath of China’s economy, including the technology, finance, gaming, and property sectors, and tensions between China and the US continue to simmer. But while I understand the market’s reaction to these risks, I take a long-term perspective on China’s investability.
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2022-05-31
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Can Ukraine’s economy withstand another conflict with Russia?
Macro Strategist Gillian Edgeworth assesses Ukraine’s outlook in the face of renewed conflict with Russia and finds that under most scenarios Ukraine's macro-economic prospects may be less negative than perhaps is assumed.
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2023-02-28
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The critically important national security implications of biotech
Deepening US policy risks in the biotechnology sector have garnered some well-deserved attention from many of my colleagues lately. Given biotechnology’s potential future importance to US policymakers in the context of the ongoing US-China “great-power” competition, I’d like to share my own thoughts on what’s driving the rising geopolitical risk and national security concerns.
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Quick Take
2022-04-30
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Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Ukraine crisis: Understanding the broader picture
The tense Ukraine crisis has brought the US-Russia standoff to a head: Now what? Geopolitical Strategist Thomas Mucha argues this is all part of a global geopolitical pattern — “great-power” competition — that makes the Russian threat particularly dangerous. Read more.
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2023-02-28
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Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Ukraine crisis: Understanding the broader picture
I believe the current standoff between Russia and the West over Ukraine is part of a global geopolitical pattern of “great-power” competition. As I explore in my 2022 Outlook, the geopolitical backdrop is becoming increasingly unpredictable and dangerous. This shift is driven primarily by US-China rivalry but also other structural factors such as domestic political polarization, and longer term, the growing impact of climate change on national security. In this new geopolitical reality, I think great powers will be more likely to act out of regional and global self-interest, especially in relation to geostrategic issues they consider core to national security. For Russia, Ukraine is such a critical security consideration and part of its wider strong geostrategic desire for cultivating “buffer states.” Accordingly, the Russian invasion threat to Ukraine is real, structural, and rooted in this emerging world order.
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Quick Take
2022-04-30
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Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
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Monthly Market Snapshot: January 2022
A monthly update on equity, fixed income, currency, and commodity markets.
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2022-07-15
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