Fiscal policy

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Governments have been slow to reduce their fiscal deficits — it could cost them

Our expert explores the investment implications of continued excessive deficit spending by G7 countries.

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2025-06-30
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The revenge of the monetarists

Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Brij Khurana makes the case for a monetarist explanation for moderating inflation.

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2025-06-30
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The Fed’s lessons learned from its COVID response

Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Brij Khurana breaks down the central bank's policy decisions during the pandemic and explains how they continue to affect financial markets.

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2025-04-30
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Biden 2.0: National security and investment themes

The geopolitical and investment implications of a potential second Biden term.

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2025-04-30
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FOMC: Stable policy amid market volatility

The Fed is holding steady amid market turmoil. See our quick notes on the FOMC's March policy statement, forecasts, and the Fed chair's press conference. 

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2025-03-31
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The Trump/Biden rematch: Market implications of unprecedented policy divergence 

Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan discusses six key areas of policy debate in this year's US election that she expects will matter most to markets, from the tax and spending plans to trade and geopolitics.

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2025-03-31
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Is the US economy really that different since COVID?

US economists have been touting the resilience of the post-COVID economic rebound. Brij Khurana dissects several key economic indicators to see what's really changed since 2019. 

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2025-03-31
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Too much focus on Fed, not enough on fiscal

Current US fiscal and monetary policy stances argue for risk taking in fixed income.

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2025-02-07
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Why structural change in Germany may impact investors globally

Macro Strategists John Butler and Eoin O’Callaghan discuss why they believe the structural changes currently underway in Germany will impact investors globally.

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2025-01-31
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The US economy in 2024: A tale of transition

Our US macro expert sees changes in consumer and investment spending in the coming year, and highlights what she'll be watching for in terms of policy, politics, and profit margins.

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2024-06-30
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The “cleanest dirty shirt” now has too many stains

Fixed Income Portfolio Manager posits that US fiscal profligacy will change the game for asset allocators. 

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2024-09-30
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After the US downgrade: Thoughts on public debt, bond yields, and Fed policy

In the wake of the US debt downgrade by Fitch, Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan explains what worries her most about the nation's debt situation and considers the impact on the term premium and the Fed’s plans.

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2024-08-31
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Why cash won’t cut it for long: The case for bonds

Global Investment and Multi-Asset Strategist Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson and Investment Strategy Analyst Patrick Wattiau explore the relative potential benefits of bonds versus cash.

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2024-08-31
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US loses its AAA rating (again)

US Macro Strategist Michael Medeiros analyzes Fitch's recent downgrade of US credit quality and explores the bigger issues at play.

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2024-08-31
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Chair Powell maintains optionality

Fixed Income Analyst Caroline Casavant shares what she thinks matters most for investors in light of the latest interest-rate hike from the Fed.

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2024-07-31
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The great American labor shortage: Causes, consequences, and solutions

Shifting demographics suggest that US labor markets will remain tight in years to come, with major implications for income inequality, investment spending, and government policy.

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2024-07-31
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FX outlook: Is USD exceptionalism withering away with the Fed hiking cycle nearing an end?

Discover the status of the USD today, learn where the greenback may be headed going forward, and understand why.

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2024-01-31
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A quiet bull market in EM local debt?

Brian Garvey illustrates the recent strength of emerging markets local debt following an extended period of underperformance. 

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2024-06-30
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The “money illusion” economy: Misplaced faith in markets?

Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Brij Khurana shares a skeptical view of US Federal Reserve policy, his assessment of the current market backdrop, and his view of what the future could hold.

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2024-06-30
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US debt ceiling back in focus: The context matters

US Macro Strategist Mike Medeiros shares his latest thoughts on the US debt-ceiling standoff, including its potential outcomes and implications.

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2024-05-31
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US debt-ceiling risk: Justifiable jitters?

With markets on high alert around the US debt-ceiling standoff, Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan lays out some possible paths forward and weighs the economic risks.

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2024-02-29
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Debt and dysfunction in Washington: The US hits the ceiling (again)

Global Investment Strategist Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson talks to Macro Strategist Mike Medeiros about the US debt-ceiling showdown and considers its potential investment implications.

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2024-02-29
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Peak inflation, back to goldilocks? Not so fast

Portfolio Manager Nicholas Petrucelli explains why the market could be underestimating just how complex and volatile the global economic cycle is and details the implications for inflation.

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2024-02-29
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China internet: Identifying opportunities amid economic reopening 

China’s re-opening and economic recovery from its zero-COVID policy has bolstered our optimism in Chinese internet companies.

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2023-12-31
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Semiconductor industry faces near-term headwinds, long-term growth

Global Industry Analyst Eunhak Bae analyzes short-term headwinds and long-term opportunities in the semiconductor industry. 

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2023-12-31
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China’s economy: Poised to exceed expectations in 2023

With the bar set so low for China's economy, Macro Strategist Santiago Millan thinks it won't take much for an upside surprise in 2023. 

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2023-12-31
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A new blueprint for US trade: Building a more resilient, sustainable, and competitive economy

Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan explains how the Biden administration is reshaping US trade policy to reflect today's global realities, including supply-chain challenges, decarbonization, and geopolitical turmoil.

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2023-12-31
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Why Europe could surprise in 2023 

Eoin O’Callaghan and John Butler discuss the contrasting prospects of the Euro Area and the UK and why 2023 could bring positive surprises in the region.

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2023-12-31
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2023: The year of disinflation for the US economy

In the coming year, US Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan expects to see inflation begin to decline, the economy adjust to higher interest rates, and labor markets feel the pain of restrictive Fed policy.

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2023-12-31
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By design and by default: Industry consolidation gathers steam across India

Equity Portfolio Manager Murali Srikantaiai sees increased industry consolidation in India as a largely positive trend from which some equity investors can (and should) seek to benefit.

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2023-11-30
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Markets take US election results in stride (for now, anyway)

Client Portfolio Manager Jitu Naidu weighs in on the markets' response to, and other potential implications of, the recently held US midterm elections.

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2023-01-31
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2023 Macro and rates outlook: Goodbye easy money, hello regime change

Macro Strategist John Butler highlights the impact of macroeconomic "regime change" on global inflation and interest rates, with potential implications for investors.

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2023-12-31
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UK in the eye of the storm: which countries might be next?
Macro Strategist John Butler provides his latest take on what's happening in the UK and its broader global implications.
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2022-12-31
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Drug pricing reform: A bitter pill for biopharma?
Global Industry Analyst Wen Shi considers the implications of drug price reform for biotech companies — modest in the near term, but likely negative longer term.
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2023-01-31
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The Inflation Reduction Act: A big deal for the US economy
US Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan considers the economic implications of the climate- and energy-related spending provisions in the IRA, including the potential for higher productivity.
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2023-09-30
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What next for the euro area after the ECB’s historic hike?
Eoin O'Callaghan and Marco Giordano explore the ECB’s likely next steps and the potential future path of inflation and growth in the euro area.
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2023-07-05
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Three overlooked opportunities in today’s markets
Portfolio Manager Brian Garvey highlights three large macro dislocations in today's environment that he believes the capital markets have yet to price in.
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2023-06-30
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Six reasons India may be on the cusp of a major upcycle
Numerous positive structural and cyclical factors are pointing towards a major economic upcycle in India over the next five to six years, in our view, creating a range of potential investment opportunities. We believe India’s market is supported by an evolving investment universe, powerful demographic trends, increasing urbanisation and rising wealth, export growth, geopolitical tailwinds and a supportive policy regime. These factors are coalescing at a time when the corporate deleveraging cycle of the last few years is coming to an end and a new upcycle in profitability could be beginning.
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2022-12-30
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How will Russia’s invasion of Ukraine transform the euro area? Four potential paths
As the tragedy in Ukraine unfolds, Macro Strategist John Butler assesses possible implications of the conflict for Europe and the euro area. He outlines four potential paths.
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2023-03-31
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