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Macro risks to watch in this rapidly oscillating global cycle
Macro Strategist John Butler explores the two key questions he believes macro investors should focus on in the current volatile environment.
Quick Take
2024-03-31
Financial stability versus inflation: The Fed’s balancing act has gotten much trickier
The Fed’s policy calculus has clearly changed somewhat over the past few weeks but the central bank may not be done hiking rates just yet, says Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Jeremy Forster.
Quick Take
2024-03-31
Securitized assets: Caught in the storm but with scattered bright spots
Securitized assets have been on the front lines of the ongoing turmoil in the banking sector, but not all securitized subsectors appear equally vulnerable.
Quick Take
2024-03-31
Wellington investor survey: The bears ponder whether inflation will be too hot, too cold or just right
Conducted prior to the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, our latest quarterly survey of Wellington investors shows a majority of respondents being more bearish than the consensus view.
Quick Take
2024-03-31
SVB collapse: What are the implications?
Multi-Asset Strategist Supriya Menon shares her latest perspectives on the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank Financial Group (SVB) and the unfolding implications for investors. (Published 14 March 2023)
Quick Take
2024-03-31
On to the next crisis: Glimpsing a post-SVB world
Amid the turmoil in the US banking sector, Global Investment Strategist Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson suggests investors consider pivoting to a “risk-management mode” that favors higher-quality assets. (Published 14 March 2023)
Quick Take
2024-03-31
Understanding the US banking sector shake-up
Investment Communications Managers Jitu Naidu and Adam Norman detail recent US bank failures and analyze the implications. (Published 14 March 2023)
Quick Take
2024-03-31
Decoding the effects of deglobalization
Nicholas Petrucelli outlines the economic, political, and geopolitical underpinnings of deglobalization. He also demonstrates the impact this trend has today and analyzes the investment implications.
Quick Take
2024-03-31
India: Structural tailwinds for 2023 and beyond
Following his recent trip to India, Macro Strategist Tushar Poddar shares why he's very positive on the country's medium- to longer-term structural outlook.
Quick Take
2024-03-31
New BOJ governor: Dove, hawk… or owl?
Investment Director Masahiko Loo and Client Portfolio Manager Jitu Naidu discuss potential implications of the upcoming “changing of the guard” at the BOJ.
Quick Take
2024-03-31
US debt-ceiling risk: Justifiable jitters?
With markets on high alert around the US debt-ceiling standoff, Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan lays out some possible paths forward and weighs the economic risks.
Quick Take
2024-02-29
More currency volatility ahead: Which hedges could help?
To help investors begin to think about elevated currency risk, as well as opportunities to generate alpha through active currency management, members of our iStrat Team offer an overview of hedging approaches and their potential tradeoffs.
Quick Take
2024-02-29
Sector rotation opportunities for nimble credit investors
Following a credit market rally, Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Rob Burn still sees value in higher-yielding sectors but believes investors should stay nimble.
Quick Take
2024-02-29
Russia/Ukraine: One year in with no end in sight
Geopolitical Strategist Thomas Mucha analyzes the impacts of the Russia/Ukraine conflict one year in and identifies potential longer-term effects.
Quick Take
2024-02-29
European equities: a complex story
Macro Strategist Nicolas Wylenzek examines the complex prospects of European equities from both a near-term and structural perspective.
Quick Take
2024-02-29
Key updates to Wellington’s 2023 proxy voting guidelines
We periodically update our guidelines in an ongoing effort to help Wellington's investment teams vote proxies in our clients' best interests. Read about key updates for this year from two members of Wellington's ESG team.
Quick Take
2024-02-29
Debt and dysfunction in Washington: The US hits the ceiling (again)
Global Investment Strategist Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson talks to Macro Strategist Mike Medeiros about the US debt-ceiling showdown and considers its potential investment implications.
Quick Take
2024-02-29
What’s driving convertibles in 2023?
Following a challenging 2022, Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Mike Barry and Investment Director Raina Dunkelberger highlight three tailwinds that may help turn the tide for convertibles.
Quick Take
2024-01-31
Three themes that could define 2023 for income investors
With several macro crosscurrents at play, Portfolio Manager Peter Wilke suggests that income-oriented investors not lose sight of the “big picture” in their quest for yield.
Quick Take
2024-01-31
Peak inflation, back to goldilocks? Not so fast
Portfolio Manager Nicholas Petrucelli explains why the market could be underestimating just how complex and volatile the global economic cycle is and details the implications for inflation.
Quick Take
2024-02-29
February Fed meeting: Chair Powell strikes a more optimistic tone
The Fed just might still be able to engineer the hoped-for "soft landing" but it's not going to be easy, says Fixed Income Analyst Caroline Casavant.
Quick Take
2023-09-30
Why global investors should watch the Bank of Japan
Macro Strategist John Butler explores why global investors should watch the Bank of Japan and what is likely to happen next.
Quick Take
2024-01-31
Spread the risk: Our top three fixed income diversifiers for 2023
Fixed Income Strategist Amar Reganti highlights three types of strategies that may be well positioned to provide fixed income portfolio diversification going forward.
Quick Take
2024-01-31
CLOs: Poised to outperform in 2023?
Collateralized loan obligations (CLOs) have been sparking investor interest lately — and with good reason, say Investment Director Andrew Bayerl and Investment Specialist Celene Klimas.
Quick Take
2024-01-31
Can US bank loans “carry” investors through 2023?
Fixed Income Portfolios managers Jeffrey Heuer, CFA and David Marshak and Investment Director Nick Leichtman describe what they see as the most prudent approach to the bank loans asset class in 2023 and why.
Quick Take
2024-01-31
Could Japan face a UK-style pension crisis?
Investment Director Masahiko Loo explores the risks of Japan facing a UK-style pension crisis and identifies fundamental reasons that make Japanese pension funds inherently less vulnerable.
Quick Take
2024-01-31
US recession risk: No longer if, but when and how bad
Portfolio Managers Brij Khurana, Brian Garvey, and Nick Petrucelli believe many observers are underestimating the severity of a potential US recession this year.
Quick Take
2024-01-31
Take credit: Our five best credit market ideas for 2023
Fixed Income Strategist Amar Reganti highlights credit market opportunities that he expects to arise over the course of 2023, against a backdrop of slowing growth.
Quick Take
2024-01-31
High yield: Opportunity to pivot in 2023?
Our high-yield bond portfolio managers have a guardedly optimistic outlook on the market and believe security selection will be key to benchmark-relative outperformance in 2023.
Quick Take
2024-01-31
Currency outlook: Nearing the end of USD exceptionalism?
Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Martin Harvey and Investment Communications Manager Jitu Naidu consider the present state of and outlook for the US dollar.
Quick Take
2023-12-31
Pivoting from innovation and growth to stability and value
In a more volatile world, stability may take priority over innovation, and that, explains Multi-Asset Strategist Adam Berger, would tend to favor value stocks over growth stocks.
Quick Take
2023-12-31
The Fed’s unenviable task for 2023
Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Jeremy Forster offers his forward-looking take on the Fed's comments and latest rate hike coming out of its December meeting.
Quick Take
2023-12-31
Reality bites: Are equity markets too upbeat?
Cautious on global equity risk, Global Investment Strategist Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson suggests that investors favor higher-quality stocks and take a look at high-quality fixed income.
Quick Take
2023-12-31
A new blueprint for US trade: Building a more resilient, sustainable, and competitive economy
Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan explains how the Biden administration is reshaping US trade policy to reflect today's global realities, including supply-chain challenges, decarbonization, and geopolitical turmoil.
Quick Take
2023-12-31
Hidden in plain sight: Overlooked opportunities in investment-grade credit
Fixed Income Strategist Amar Reganti and Investment Specialist Geoff Austein-Miller highlight some relatively simple, straightforward ways to implement a positive view on high-quality corporate credit.
Quick Take
2023-12-31
Recession risks and markets: Can we avoid a COVID hangover?
Current earnings forecasts and asset prices suggest overly optimistic expectations for the global economy and markets in 2023, according to Equity Portfolio Manager Dan Pozen.
Quick Take
2023-11-30
By design and by default: Industry consolidation gathers steam across India
Equity Portfolio Manager Murali Srikantaiai sees increased industry consolidation in India as a largely positive trend from which some equity investors can (and should) seek to benefit.
Quick Take
2023-11-30
Wellington investor survey: inflationary Europe seen as top “problem child” of 2023
In the latest Wellington investor survey, inflationary Europe was seen as the top "problem child" of 2023.
Quick Take
2023-11-30
Markets take US election results in stride (for now, anyway)
Client Portfolio Manager Jitu Naidu weighs in on the markets' response to, and other potential implications of, the recently held US midterm elections.
Quick Take
2023-01-31
Diversifying styles to survive today’s bond market
In a challenging year for fixed income markets, members of our Fundamental Factor team highlight a bright spot: the momentum factor in global government bond and corporate credit markets.
Quick Take
2023-11-30
Physical climate risks: Implications for investors
Director of Climate Research Chris Goolgasian and Woodwell Climate Scientist Zach Zobel discuss how investors might use climate science as an input for financial decision-making.
Quick Take
2023-04-30
Three tailwinds that could power CLO equity in 2023 and beyond
Three members of our fixed income team argue that the headwinds currently facing CLO equity should give way to improved returns in 2023 and beyond.
Quick Take
2023-11-30
Solving the duration mismatch to address Asian insurers’ interest-rate risk
Insurance Strategist Max Davies and ALM & Regulatory Capital Strategist Francisco Sebastian explain why diversifying across a varied mix of investment options is becoming increasingly important for Asia’s life insurers.
Quick Take
2023-12-31
November FOMC meeting: How slow can the Fed go?
Investment Specialist Caroline Casavant shares her takeaways from the November FOMC meeting, including thoughts on the likely pace of further Fed interest-rate hikes.
Quick Take
2023-01-31
Bank of Japan policy shift: Waiting for the other shoe to drop?
Client Portfolio Manager Jitu Naidu and Investment Director Masahiko Loo share their take on the consensus view that Japan has reached several key inflection points.
Quick Take
2023-01-31
India equity: An unsung long-term performance story
Despite strong long-term performance, Indian equities are often overlooked. That may be a mistake, say Equity Portfolio Manager Niraj Bhagwat and Investment Director Philip Brooks.
Quick Take
2023-10-31
Can agency MBS bounce back from dismal performance?
Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Brian Conroy and two colleagues weigh in on the mortgage-backed securities (MBS) market in the wake of a very challenging month.
Quick Take
2023-01-31
Advocating for better climate disclosures to improve investment outcomes
Members of our Sustainable Investment Team share recent advocacy efforts with policymakers and standard setters around the world.
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Quick Take
2023-10-31
China equity: Is today's investor pessimism overdone?
The short answer is yes, say Equity Portfolio Manager Niraj Bhagwat and Investment Director Philip Brooks, who believe China may offer a short-term buying opportunity.
Quick Take
2023-10-31
Equity market volatility is perking up: Why now?
The recent uptick in equity volatility may be about looming macro and systemic risks in today's uncertain environment. Director of Global Derivatives Gordy Lawrence explains.
Quick Take
2023-10-31
Impact measurement and management: addressing key challenges
Our IMM practice leader describes common impact investing challenges and suggests ways to overcome them.
Quick Take
2023-10-31
Bank loans: Can issuers overcome higher interest expenses?
The short answer, according to Fixed Income Portfolio Managers Jeff Heuer and David Marshak, is that many can. And, they believe bank loans can outperform many other fixed-income sectors over the next 12 months.
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Quick Take
2023-01-31
The Fed wants to crush inflation, but at what cost?
Following a higher-than-expected inflation print and the Fed's latest rate hike, Global Investment Strategist Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson considers potential implications for fixed income and equities.
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Quick Take
2022-12-31
Drug pricing reform: A bitter pill for biopharma?
Global Industry Analyst Wen Shi considers the implications of drug price reform for biotech companies — modest in the near term, but likely negative longer term.
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Quick Take
2023-01-31
The Fed’s “lean, leave, then clean” strategy
US inflation could prove "stickier" than many observers think. How might that influence Fed policy into 2023? Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Jeremy Forster opines.
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Quick Take
2022-12-31
India: Growth drivers are in place
Following a recent visit to India, Macro Strategist Tushar Poddar shares his take on the country's changing macro environment and its equity market.
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Quick Take
2023-09-30
Germany: Reducing Russian energy dependence in a hurry
Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan sees Germany continuing to embrace the transition to renewables while also working to diversify its sources of fossil fuels.
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Quick Take
2022-12-30
Sustainable fixed income: Key terms allocators should know
ESG integration versus sustainable investing: What’s the difference? We explain a few key distinctions that are important for allocators to understand.
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Quick Take
2023-06-30
The shifting equity/bond correlation: Implications for portfolio construction
Multi-Asset Strategist Nick Samouilhan looks at what's driving the change in the all-important equity/bond relationship and what can be done about it.
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Quick Take
2023-09-30
What does an equity market bottom look like?
Applying a historical analysis to today's market, Multi-Asset Portfolio Manager Nick Petrucelli believes US equities have not yet found a near-term bottom.
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Quick Take
2022-11-30
No more Mr. Nice Guy? Fed Chair Powell talks tough on inflation
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Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Brij Khurana offers his latest thoughts on Fed policy following the central bank's recent Jackson Hole meeting.
Quick Take
2023-09-30
US/China relations: What next after Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan?
Geopolitical Strategist Thomas Mucha assesses the escalating tension in US/China relations following US Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan.
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Quick Take
2022-11-30
Wellington investor survey: Global recession tops investors’ concerns
The latest Wellington investor survey shows that our investment teams are increasingly concerned about the economic cycle, with 45% seeing a global recession over the next 12 months as the most likely outcome.
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Quick Take
2022-11-30
Investment takeaways from the latest inflation data
With 2022's structural inflation story still very much intact, now may be a particularly opportune time for investors to add real-asset and inflation-sensitive exposures to their portfolios.
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Quick Take
2022-11-30
The shrinking central bank balance sheet: A credit market opportunity
With the shift in central bank policy, heightened volatility and dispersion may yield a promising environment for exploiting credit market inefficiencies.
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Quick Take
2022-11-30
Positioning for a “pricey” recession scenario
Client Portfolio Manager Jitu Naidu and Fixed Income Strategist Amar Reganti offer portfolio positioning ideas for the potential recession scenario that may lie ahead.
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Quick Take
2022-11-30
New IFRS financial reporting standards: three key investment implications for insurers
ALM and Regulatory Capital Strategist Francisco Sebastian examines the investment impact of the new IFRS reporting standards and considers three potential investment implications.
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Quick Take
2023-07-31
Why today’s fixed income market is fertile ground for active management
Skilled active management has potential to shine in times of increased dispersion across fixed income sectors and regions. Now may be one of those times.
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Quick Take
2022-12-31
Global convertibles: Unprecedented times call for unconventional solutions
Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Michael Barry and Investment Director Raina Dunkelberger argue that global convertible bonds are well suited to today's uncertain market environment.
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Quick Take
2022-11-30
Reckoning with recession risk: Why this one may be “pricey”
Client Portfolio Manager Jitu Naidu shares his latest take on the looming risk of a global economic recession and related issues.
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Quick Take
2022-11-30
What can history teach us about today's markets? A framework for drawing comparisons
Members of our Investment Strategy Group explain how they identify similarities to past market environments and what their approach is signaling about today's conditions.
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Quick Take
2022-11-30
Fixed income: Relative value opportunities amid growth slowdown
In the face of this year's fixed income market turmoil, Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Rob Burn sees attractive opportunities for investors with longer-term time horizons.
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Quick Take
2022-10-31
Fed rate hikes: A tailwind for bonds?
Global Investment Strategist Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson believes higher-quality, longer-duration bonds may prove resilient even if the Fed keeps raising short-term rates into 2023.
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Quick Take
2022-10-31
Fintech industry outlook in a recession
We explore the current environment for the fintech industry and highlight a few factors that show why the outlook for payments and other related subindustries may be less challenging than many may anticipate.
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Quick Take
2023-07-31
July Fed meeting: Rising inflation vs falling growth
After another rate hike, the Fed must balance moderating growth with mounting inflation. Caroline Casavant opines on how the central bank might navigate this dilemma.
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Quick Take
2022-10-31
ESG and stewardship: Key updates to focus topics and voting guidelines
We provide an update on our ESG integration and stewardship efforts, including updates to our proxy voting guidelines to enhance our commitments in key areas.
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Quick Take
2022-10-31
Impact investing: Increasing needs, broadening opportunities
Members of our impact investing team, offer a brief update on our impact platform, which continues to evolve amid an expanding opportunity set in developed and emerging market equities and fixed income.
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Quick Take
2022-12-31
Climate change investing: Research and collaboration continue
Our research into the economic impacts of climate change continues to expand, as does our climate-related engagement and industry-leadership efforts. Members of our Climate Research Team summarize our ongoing progress.
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Quick Take
2022-12-01
Don’t be surprised if CLO equity surprises to the upside
Members of our fixed income team, including Portfolio Manager Alyssa Irving, believe CLO equity could be poised to outperform many other risk assets over the next few years.
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Quick Take
2022-10-31
New IFRS financial reporting standards: how should insurers implement the changes?
ALM and Regulatory Capital Strategist Francisco Sebastian assesses how insurance companies should implement upcoming changes to International Financial Reporting Standards to create value for their shareholders and mutual members.
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Quick Take
2023-07-31
Credit investing against a slower-growth, higher-inflation backdrop
The significant flattening of the US Treasury yield curve in recent months has some prognosticators calling for an impending US recession. Not so fast, says Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Rob Burn.
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Quick Take
2022-07-31
Using hedge funds to perform the role of fixed income: An alternative approach
Member of our Fundamental Factor Team offer a role-based framework that may help better align manager research, portfolio construction, and potential investment outcomes.
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Quick Take
2022-10-31
Stepping-stone investment ideas: A bridge over troubled waters?
Multi-Asset Strategist Adam Berger offers incremental investment ideas that may help asset owners improve a portfolio's return potential.
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Quick Take
2022-10-31
From autopilot to active pilot: How investors can navigate the future
President Steve Klar explains why a broader set of tools may be required to maneuver through higher volatility, changes in market structure, and the explosion in investment data.
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Quick Take
2023-06-30
Sustainable fixed income investing entering the mainstream
This short piece explores the continued rise of sustainable fixed income investing and links to a more in-depth white paper on the topic.
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Quick Take
2022-12-31
Credit and equity risk back on speaking terms, but will it last?
Following their uncharacteristic rift and recent reconciliation, Director of Wellington’s Global Derivatives Group Gordy Lawrence considers whether equity volatility and credits spreads are likely to remain in harmony.
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Quick Take
2022-10-31
A transition year for agency MBS?
Following a challenging period for agency MBS, members of our securitized team now see attractive opportunities in the space and believe actively managed strategies may be the best way for many investors to capitalize.
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Quick Take
2022-07-31
New IFRS reporting standards: a game changer for insurers?
From 1 January 2023, new requirements set out in the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) on Insurance Contracts and Financial Instruments will change how insurance companies are required to measure and report their performance
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Quick Take
2023-06-30
Three overlooked opportunities in today’s markets
Portfolio Manager Brian Garvey highlights three large macro dislocations in today's environment that he believes the capital markets have yet to price in.
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Quick Take
2023-06-30
Timely musings on Fed policy and inflation
With rising inflation and interest rates dominating the financial headlines in recent weeks, I have been fielding a flurry of colleague and client questions about the likely future trajectory of US monetary policy. While I don’t claim to have all the answers, especially with so many “known unknowns” as of this writing, here are my latest thoughts.
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Quick Take
2022-08-30
How the Russia/Ukraine conflict has galvanized the West
Geopolitical Strategist Thomas Mucha provides his latest insights on the Russia/Ukraine conflict, particularly with regard to its significant and potentially enduring impact on US/EU relations.
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Quick Take
2022-08-30
How the public market correction is affecting the late-stage private equity market
The times they are a-changin’. The late-stage private equity market is digesting a public growth multiple collapse that took us from boom to bust in four months. But while valuations may be coming down in the private market as a result, the opportunity-creating trends of technology disrupting all parts of the economy and companies staying private longer remain in place.
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Quick Take
2022-09-30
US inflation risk, angry bondholders, and silver linings
Here are quick thoughts on some common questions I’ve been asked recently about Fed policy, yields, the US dollar, and financial markets.
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Quick Take
2022-08-31
Making the money last: Research insights on the decumulation challenge
Our Investment Strategy team considers the unique challenges of decumulation strategies, including sequencing and longevity risk, and offers thoughts on best practices in portfolio construction, process design, and implementation.
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Quick Take
2023-04-30
Is it too soon to call a “top” in US interest rates?
Are we nearing the top of the 10-year treasury rate?
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Quick Take
2023-05-31
Empirical duration: reason for optimism on risk assets?
While rising rates often produce negative bond returns, combining the concept of empirical duration with a positive outlook on the credit cycle may bode well for some fixed income sectors' return prospects going forward. Investment Analyst Will Prenits and Investment Director Tobias Ripka explain.
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Quick Take
2022-07-31
Six reasons India may be on the cusp of a major upcycle
Numerous positive structural and cyclical factors are pointing towards a major economic upcycle in India over the next five to six years, in our view, creating a range of potential investment opportunities. We believe India’s market is supported by an evolving investment universe, powerful demographic trends, increasing urbanisation and rising wealth, export growth, geopolitical tailwinds and a supportive policy regime. These factors are coalescing at a time when the corporate deleveraging cycle of the last few years is coming to an end and a new upcycle in profitability could be beginning.
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Quick Take
2022-12-30
Will Japanese buyers look beyond USD fixed income? They may have to
With the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) interest-rate-hiking cycle now underway, it’s an important time to keep a close eye on non-US buyers of US dollar (USD) fixed income securities.
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Quick Take
2022-07-31
Nobody’s perfect: The case for a long-term strategy in active management
While many asset owners recognize the value of a long-term mindset, it can be challenging to resist short-term instincts in volatile environments like the one we’ve seen in recent months. But asset owners who have a strategy to help them stay focused on the long term may avoid a number of potentially costly behaviors, including abandoning a thoughtfully selected allocation to a manager after a relatively short period of underperformance.
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Quick Take
2022-07-31
Global convertibles: Poised to benefit from five structural tailwinds
Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Michael Barry and Investment Specialist Raina Dunkelberger believe global convertible bonds are likely to outperform other fixed income sectors over an investment time horizon of approximately two to three years. Learn why.
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Quick Take
2022-07-31
When will US federal deficits matter?
Now that the Federal Reserve has moved into tightening mode, it’s worth asking when the US deficits and overall debt could become a source of worry. As long as interest rates stay reasonably low without driving persistently high inflation, I believe deficits and the debt won’t matter too much to the economy or markets. The debt won’t be painful to finance and can continue to grow — within reason. In fact, if economic growth is higher than the interest rate on government borrowing, it’s possible for debt to GDP to shrink even amid sizeable deficits.
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2022-07-31
Addressing the shared financial challenge of climate change
In February, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a body of the United Nations, released its Sixth Assessment Report, “Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability.” While the full report is 3,675 page long, the Technical Summary is just 96 pages and well worth the read. In the Summary alone, climate adaptation is referenced 442 times, versus 60 for climate mitigation.
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Quick Take
2022-07-30
Bank loans: Resiliency amid volatility
In the face of ongoing geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty, including the prospect of steadily rising interest rates, our floating-rate bank loan team maintains a bullish outlook for the sector. Emboldened by a strong US economy and mounting inflationary pressures, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) enacted its first 25 basis-point (bp) increase in interest rates since 2018. Additionally, Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s recent rhetoric has become more hawkish, including suggesting the possibility of a 50 bp rate hike in the coming months. The market is now pricing in the fed funds rate to rise to around 2.5% by the end of 2022 (from its current target of 25-50 bps).
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Quick Take
2022-07-31
Global credit: Where do we go from here?
Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Mahmoud El-Shaer explores why 2022 may be a momentous year for global credit and sets out a framework to think through potential investment implications. 2022 promises to be another challenging year for central banks as they attempt to normalise policies in the face of surging inflation, while navigating the growing fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Since 2009, there has essentially been one trade in capital markets: riding a huge wave of central bank liquidity in support of the financial system and the economy, with the G4 central banks alone pumping approximately US$20 trillion into the system via quantitative easing (QE).
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Quick Take
2022-07-31
Crypto beyond the hype: Insights for institutional investors
We highlight a few practical insights on cryptocurrencies for institutional investors evaluating the asset class, including our views on custody, regulation, and more.
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Quick Take
2022-12-31
Beware of benchmark concentration
We discuss the outperformance of megacap stocks and offer perspective on how active managers may approach the challenge of being underweight those stocks.
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Quick Take
2022-06-30
Four potentially powerful tailwinds for the securitized sector
In his latest Top of Mind session, Multi-Asset Strategist Adam Berger addressed a wide range of what-if scenarios on the minds of our clients. See what he has to say on Russia, China, cryptocurrencies, the IPO market, and many other topics in this brief article.
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Quick Take
2022-06-30
Stewardship and engagement: 2021 highlights and 2022 goals
Wellington’s long-standing commitment to deep fundamental research and meaningful engagement with investee companies continues to drive positive engagement outcomes that we believe support and enhance long-term investment value for our clients. We are proud of progress we made in 2021 advancing our stewardship priorities, and we have seen many positive outcomes spanning a range of environmental, social, and governance (ESG) issues. We look forward to continued momentum on ESG and to expanding our influence via active ownership in 2022.
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Quick Take
2023-07-31
Why I’m getting more bullish on biotech
The biotechnology sector, especially SMID-cap biotech equities, suffered a dramatic drawdown in 2021. Investor sentiment toward the sector remains poor, but my outlook has become increasingly bullish as multiple headwinds facing biotech over the past year or so begin to abate and turn into potential tailwinds for 2022 and beyond. Encouragingly, the level of innovation across the industry has never been higher, in my view. I believe many biotech stocks may be nearing a bottom, even though the exact timing of (and catalyst for) a rebound remains unclear as of this writing.
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Quick Take
2022-06-30
How might equity sectors fare when Fed tightening begins?
We look back at how US equities have performed in the months following the beginning of a tightening cycle, as well as how bond yields have tended to behave.
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Quick Take
2022-05-31
China in 2022: Embracing the volatility
China’s new antitrust, data privacy and cybersecurity regulations, combined with its education and real estate industry reforms, the continued impact of COVID-19 and rising geopolitical tensions, drove a tumultuous investment environment last year. The country’s numerous headline-grabbing changes spurred global concern given the philosophical shift towards “Common Prosperity” and the sheer scale and speed of policymaking.
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Quick Take
2022-08-31
An inside look at today’s municipal market
After a year in which municipal bonds posted respectable returns (Figure 1), many clients have been seeking forward-looking guidance on the market as a whole and (increasingly) on particular sectors of it. Here are my latest thoughts as of this writing on the outlook for the rest of 2022.
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Quick Take
2022-05-31
EM local debt: Forgotten but not forsaken
The emerging markets (EM) local debt sector (as measured by the JP Morgan Government Bond Index – Emerging Markets Global Diversified) just posted its worst calendar-year performance since 2013, returning -8.75% against the headwind of higher EM local interest rates. The underlying culprit? EM inflation surprised to the upside in 2021, forcing a number of EM central banks to raise their policy interest rates in an effort to curb the impact.
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Quick Take
2022-09-30
Commodities in 2022: Opportunities amid inflation
Inflation is quickly becoming top of mind for many as everything from ice cream to cars gets more expensive. Investors are beginning to recognize that we’re experiencing the highest inflation levels in 40 years. In our view, we may be entering a market that could be quite favorable for inflation-hedging assets broadly and commodities, in particular. Critically, this environment is coming on the heels of a decade or more of institutions deallocating from inflation-sensitive areas.
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2022-08-31
Amid heightened regulation and geopolitical tension, is China still investable?
Recent regulatory announcements have sent shivers through a wide swath of China’s economy, including the technology, finance, gaming, and property sectors, and tensions between China and the US continue to simmer. But while I understand the market’s reaction to these risks, I take a long-term perspective on China’s investability.
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Quick Take
2022-05-31
Adapting our capital market assumptions to the realities of climate risk
As the momentum behind decarbonisation and net-zero objectives builds around the world, asset owners are increasingly engaged in addressing the investment implications of climate change. The focus thus far has largely been on implementation at the security- and manager-selection levels, but there is a growing recognition of the need to factor climate change into broader investment policy and asset allocation decisions. To help with this process, our Investment Strategy Team, in partnership with our Climate and ESG teams, recently completed a comprehensive effort to integrate climate risks into our capital market assumptions (CMAs).
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2022-05-31
Regime change likely to challenge modern market structures
Recently, I wrote about the rotation from growth to value and why some of my colleagues and I expect volatility, more than a smooth transition of leadership, to define markets. The thesis is rooted in the fact that seismic macro questions loom over markets and are likely to trigger violent fluctuations in investor conviction. Earlier this month, Macro Strategist John Butler dissected one of these questions: Will the negative correlation between stocks and bonds turn positive?
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2022-05-31
Credit and equity performance around Fed hiking cycles
One of the discussion topics du jour is how the credit and equity markets might react to the US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest-rate hikes that are widely anticipated in the coming months. As is often the case with me, I find it helpful here to refer to past hiking regimes and market performances as a sort of guidepost.
The proof’s in the pudding
To wit, I examined the historical returns of both US credit (for this purpose, proxied by corporate high-yield bonds) and US equities (represented by the S&P 500 Index) during the six months before the first rate increase of a Fed hiking cycle through the 12 months after said increase.
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2022-05-31
Macro survey: Nervous about China
Respondents to our latest internal survey think the markets may be complacent about risks in China and emerging markets more broadly.
Every quarter for the past six years, the Wisdom of Wellington team has surveyed around 100 of our Wellington colleagues across different investment disciplines and locations to get their views on what we see as the key macro questions of the day. The results can pinpoint where the firm’s views differ from the consensus and can also reveal significant shifts in our collective thinking.
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2023-02-28
China in 2022 - Uncorrelated but far from broken
Macro Strategist Santiago Millan highlights a trend of falling correlations between China’s economy and asset prices versus their global counterparts.
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2022-08-31
Can Ukraine’s economy withstand another conflict with Russia?
Macro Strategist Gillian Edgeworth assesses Ukraine’s outlook in the face of renewed conflict with Russia and finds that under most scenarios Ukraine's macro-economic prospects may be less negative than perhaps is assumed.
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2023-02-28
Fixed income: Turn to nontraditional sectors for greater return potential in 2022
As discussed in our 2022 credit sector outlook piece, Break with tradition in 2022, we see opportunities in a few nontraditional credit sectors that stand out to us as having a higher probability of generating excess returns in the months ahead.
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Quick Take
2022-04-30
Ukraine crisis: Understanding the broader picture
I believe the current standoff between Russia and the West over Ukraine is part of a global geopolitical pattern of “great-power” competition. As I explore in my 2022 Outlook, the geopolitical backdrop is becoming increasingly unpredictable and dangerous. This shift is driven primarily by US-China rivalry but also other structural factors such as domestic political polarization, and longer term, the growing impact of climate change on national security. In this new geopolitical reality, I think great powers will be more likely to act out of regional and global self-interest, especially in relation to geostrategic issues they consider core to national security. For Russia, Ukraine is such a critical security consideration and part of its wider strong geostrategic desire for cultivating “buffer states.” Accordingly, the Russian invasion threat to Ukraine is real, structural, and rooted in this emerging world order.
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Quick Take
2022-04-30
The critically important national security implications of biotech
Deepening US policy risks in the biotechnology sector have garnered some well-deserved attention from many of my colleagues lately. Given biotechnology’s potential future importance to US policymakers in the context of the ongoing US-China “great-power” competition, I’d like to share my own thoughts on what’s driving the rising geopolitical risk and national security concerns.
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Quick Take
2022-04-30
Consumer tech: Buy the dip or bide your time?
We explore the potential opportunities offered by the recent sell-off in the consumer tech sector, highlighting areas like gaming, online dating, and more.
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Quick Take
2022-08-31
Euro area: Challenging long-held assumptions
We believe 2022 will be the year when macroeconomic and political developments challenge two deep-rooted misperceptions about the euro area:
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Quick Take
2022-04-30
The latest market sell-off: Regime change in the making?
What a difference a few weeks can make in the equity market! The sharp, swift sell-off through the first month of this year is raising some difficult questions for investors, chiefly: Are we just witnessing a long-overdue short-term correction in the more speculative areas of the market, or perhaps something more fundamental (and enduring) that could portend a broader unwinding of equity risk?
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Quick Take
2022-03-31
Value versus growth: expect volatility more than a smooth transition of leadership
Even if a "growth to value" regime change is underway, investors should expect volatility more than a smooth transition of leadership. Thematic Strategist Trevor Noren shares his perspective and those of several Wellington colleagues.
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2022-03-31
Navigating narrow bond markets: how diversified is your fixed income alpha?
Understanding an active manager’s path and style of alpha generation should be a critical part of anyone’s fixed income manager evaluation process, says Brendan Fludder of our Fundamental Factor Team.
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Quick Take
2022-07-28
Playing inflation defense with fixed income in 2022
For fixed income investors who are worried about the double threat of higher inflation and rising rates, there are strategies that may help insulate a bond portfolio. Fixed Income Investment Director Amar Reganti and Investment Specialist Jonathan Tan offer up some suggestions.
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Quick Take
2022-02-28
High yield: Be ready for sideways moves, bouts of volatility in 2022
Our high-yield portfolio managers believe investors should stand ready to dynamically adjust positioning in a year that could see sideways spread moves and plenty of market volatility.
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Quick Take
2022-08-31
Ten essential climate questions for private companies
We explore how climate change impacts private companies and share the top questions for companies to be prepared to address as this issue grows.
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Quick Take
2022-06-30
Why COP26 was (probably) more constructive than headlines suggest
From better targets to methane to financial commitments, a climate investor shares his views on the lasting positive outcomes likely to emerge from the recent global conference on climate change.
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Quick Take
2022-07-31
Will Omicron derail the global cycle?
The short answer is probably not, but it’s a fast-moving narrative that warrants some level of concern (though not panic). Global Investment Strategist Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson relays what we know (and don’t know) at this point and weighs in on some of the potential implications.
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2022-07-29
Seven reasons Japanese equities are worth another look
Investment Strategy Analysts Steven Ye and Daniel Cook make their case for Japanese equities, based on valuations, the “benefits” of inflation, the potential for event-driven outperformance, and other factors that may be underappreciated by the market.
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Quick Take
2022-09-30
The fish are biting: Exploiting Japan’s inefficient equity market
Our Japanese equity team has shown Japan to be one of the world’s most inefficient markets, making it a good “fishing pond” for alpha-seeking active managers who do their homework and apply a strong investment process.
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Quick Take
2021-12-31
Should China equity be a stand-alone allocation?
As China’s role on the world stage looms larger, should investors separate the country from the rest of their emerging markets (EM) equity allocation? Three of our multi-asset strategists provide their research-based take, along with some practical considerations.
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Quick Take
2022-05-31
“Buy now, pay later” is at a turning point
For Portfolio Manager Matt Lipton, recent developments have strengthened his conviction that up-and-coming “buy now, pay later” companies cannot and should not be ignored by banks and other legacy players in the global payments space.
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Quick Take
2021-11-30
Five reasons to think US inflation has staying power
After a lengthy absence, inflation has finally returned to the US, but for how long depends on who you ask. Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Brij Khurana offers his view on why US inflation may prove to be more enduring than many observers think.
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Quick Take
2021-11-30
ESG research playbook: Health care
Wellington has established frameworks — what we call “research playbooks” — for evaluating companies within each sector based on key ESG criteria. ESG Analyst Lindsay Blitstein looks at the health care sector here.
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Quick Take
2022-04-30
Local solutions for local markets
We profile the growth of local Asia tech solutions for local markets, a promising trend we believe continues to thrive amid COVID-19 and the US-China trade war.
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Quick Take
2022-03-31
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