Monetary policy

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4 min

Article

2025-04-30

Fiscal policy Volatility Monetary policy Fixed income program Inflation Interest rates Americas Fixed income Credit Government bonds High yield Investment grade Quick Take

FOMC: Stable policy amid market volatility

The Fed is holding steady amid market turmoil. See our quick notes on the FOMC's March policy statement, forecasts, and the Fed chair's press conference.

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Quick Take

2025-03-31

Economic cycle Interest rates Monetary policy Fixed income program Inflation Fiscal policy USA Credit Article

Is the US economy really that different since COVID?

US economists have been touting the resilience of the post-COVID economic rebound. Brij Khurana dissects several key economic indicators to see what's really changed since 2019.

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Article

2025-03-31

Income Fixed income Asset allocation iStrat program Inflation Value vs growth Economic cycle Monetary policy Tactical allocation Equity Multi-asset Article

Income: the hard worker in your portfolio deserves more credit

Income from cash is good but income from bonds is better. In a less certain macro environment, Alex King, Supriya Menon and John Mullins think the case for income only gets stronger. How can investors make the most of opportunities?

Multiple authors

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5 min

Article

2025-03-31

Fixed income Interest rates Bonds in brief Credit High yield Geopolitical Monetary policy Fixed income program Article

Bonds in brief: making sense of the macro - February issue

What's driving global bond markets and what are the investment implications? Read February's "Bonds in brief" for Wellington Investment Director Marco Giordano's monthly assessment.

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Article

2025-03-31

Fixed income Interest rates Bonds in brief Credit High yield Geopolitical Monetary policy Fixed income program Article

Bonds in brief: making sense of the macro - January issue

What's driving global bond markets and what are the investment implications? Read January's "Bonds in brief" for Wellington Investment Director Marco Giordano's monthly assessment.

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Article

2025-02-28

Monetary policy Macro and market Bank liquidity Macro USA Quick Take

The shifting liquidity landscape: What’s at stake?

The beginning of the end could be in sight for the Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening (QT) program. US Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan considers the Fed's next steps and what they could mean for banks, liquidity, and markets broadly.

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Quick Take

2025-01-31

Bonds in brief Fixed income Interest rates Fixed income program Inflation Monetary policy Credit Article

Bonds in brief: making sense of the macro - December issue

What's driving global bond markets and what are the investment implications? Read "Bonds in brief" for Wellington Investment Director Marco Giordano's monthly assessment.

By

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Article

2024-12-31

Economic cycle Interest rates Monetary policy Credit Americas China Europe Fixed income program Quick Take

Bizarro World: Could 2024 be the opposite of 2023?

Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Brij Khurana details the dynamics that may upend investor expectations of a repeat of 2023 this year.

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Quick Take

2025-01-17

Asset allocation Monetary policy Economic cycle iStrat program Tactical allocation Inflation Multi-asset Equity Fixed income Commodities Multi-Asset qualifier Article

Fork in the road: Slowdown or reacceleration ahead?

Markets seem to expect a much smoother ride in 2024, but are they too optimistic? Members of our Investment Strategy & Solutions Group offer their macro and market outlook, including their latest views on equities, bonds, and commodities.

Multiple authors

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Article

2026-01-31

Bonds in brief Fixed income Interest rates Inflation Credit Monetary policy Fixed income program Article

Bonds in brief: making sense of the macro - November issue

What's driving global bond markets and what are the investment implications? Read "Bonds in brief" for Wellington Investment Director Marco Giordano's monthly assessment.

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Article

2024-12-31

Interest rates Economic cycle Monetary policy Fixed income program Americas Fixed income Government bonds Investment grade Multi-Sector Credit Global Credit Plus Quick Take

Fed’s projections yielded mixed results this year — what’s in store for 2024?

Our Fed watcher opines on 2023 policy and looks ahead to 2024.

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Quick Take

2024-03-31

Japan Macro and market Monetary policy Inflation Interest rates Fixed income program Quick Take

Should investors prepare for a rate hike in Japan?

Investment Directors Marco Giordano and Masahiko Loo discuss why a rate rise in Japan may occur sooner than markets expect.

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Quick Take

2024-12-31

Economic cycle Fiscal policy Monetary policy USA Outlook Article

The US economy in 2024: A tale of transition

Our US macro expert sees changes in consumer and investment spending in the coming year, and highlights what she'll be watching for in terms of policy, politics, and profit margins.

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Article

2024-06-30

Interest rates Asset allocation Monetary policy Fixed income program iStrat program Income Tactical allocation Fixed income iStrat Quick Take

You snooze, you may lose: The case for bonds

There are signs the Federal Reserve's rate-hiking cycle may be nearing an end, but some uncertainty remains. With that in mind, Multi-Asset Strategist Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson considers the timing of a move from cash to bonds.

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Quick Take

2024-11-30

Bonds in brief Fixed income Inflation Interest rates United Kingdom Monetary policy Fixed income program Article

The great central bank balancing act

Marco Giordano examines the difficult balancing act that central banks around the world are seeking to perform and its likely implications for investors.

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Article

2024-11-30

Interest rates Economic cycle Monetary policy Americas Fixed income Government bonds Investment grade Global Credit Plus Multi-Sector Credit Quick Take

Fed not yet willing to declare victory on inflation

We think the Fed is done raising rates for this cycle, despite the likelihood that they are being overly optimistic about inflation. Read to find out why.

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Quick Take

2024-03-31

Long-short Financials Fintech Global Industry Research Alternatives Volatility Bank liquidity Interest rates Monetary policy Fintech Article

Financials amid rising dispersion

We explore why we believe dispersion across stocks, sectors, and geographies is supporting numerous secular themes in long/short investing in financials.

Multiple authors

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Article

2024-09-30

Bank liquidity Regulatory Hedge funds Global Industry Research Alternatives Financials Americas Interest rates Monetary policy Volatility Inflation Fintech Article Fintech

US regional banking sector update

We explore how banking regulation and legislation could impact US regional banks, including highlighting the potential for M&A activity and for dispersion to drive long/short opportunities.

Multiple authors

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Article

2024-08-31

Fiscal policy Interest rates Monetary policy USA Quick Take

After the US downgrade: Thoughts on public debt, bond yields, and Fed policy

In the wake of the US debt downgrade by Fitch, Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan explains what worries her most about the nation's debt situation and considers the impact on the term premium and the Fed’s plans.

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Quick Take

2024-08-31

Income Credit Interest rates iStrat Investment grade Fixed income Americas Inflation Fiscal policy Monetary policy Fixed income program Quick Take

Why cash won’t cut it for long: The case for bonds

Global Investment and Multi-Asset Strategist Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson and Investment Strategy Analyst Patrick Wattiau explore the relative potential benefits of bonds versus cash.

By

Patrick Wattiau

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Quick Take

2024-08-31

Economic cycle Japan Monetary policy Opportunistic Fixed Income Multi-Sector Credit Global Credit Plus Euro High Yield Global High Yield Government bonds EM debt Investment grade High yield Fixed income Equity Multi-asset Interest rates Quick Take

How to interpret the Bank of Japan’s latest policy shift

We analyse the wide-ranging investment implications of the Bank of Japan's latest policy shift.

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Quick Take

2024-08-31

Interest rates Inflation Monetary policy Government bonds Fixed income USA Fiscal policy COVID Quick Take

Chair Powell maintains optionality

Fixed Income Analyst Caroline Casavant shares what she thinks matters most for investors in light of the latest interest-rate hike from the Fed.

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Quick Take

2024-07-31

Interest rates Monetary policy Inflation Fixed income program Americas Fixed income Government bonds Quick Take

Fed skips along the path to a pause

Jeremy Forster analyzes the Federal Reserve's decision to pause its interest-rate hiking cycle, explains why he believes it could be an extended pause, and shares the potential implications for fixed income markets.

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Quick Take

2024-06-30

Outlook Macro and market Active management Economic cycle Monetary policy Portfolio strategy Client objective Americas APAC EMEA Article

When the US sneezes, does the world still catch a cold?

Macro Strategist John Butler discusses the growing potential for cyclical and monetary policy divergence, despite markets pricing for the contrary, and assesses what it means for investors.

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Article

2024-05-31

Outlook Europe Macro and market Economic cycle Monetary policy Article

Europe/US divergence: the ECB has further to go

How far will Europe diverge from the US? Macro Strategist Eoin O’Callaghan sees several reasons sustaining this growing divergence.

By

Eoin O'Callaghan

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Article

2024-06-30

Outlook EM debt Interest rates Fixed income program Fiscal policy Monetary policy Inflation Emerging markets Fixed income Quick Take

A quiet bull market in EM local debt?

Brian Garvey illustrates the recent strength of emerging markets local debt following an extended period of underperformance.

By

Brian Garvey

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Quick Take

2024-06-30

Outlook Inflation Bank liquidity USA Monetary policy Growth Article

Inflation loosens its grip, but bank turmoil could put the squeeze on US growth

US Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan weighs the benefits of disinflation for consumers and companies against the risks of a credit crunch brought on by the recent bank crisis.

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Article

2024-05-31

Outlook High yield Bank liquidity Fixed income Volatility Economic cycle Inflation Interest rates Monetary policy Article

Global high yield: Attractive entry points could soon emerge

Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Konstantin Leidman shares his outlook for high-yield fixed income for the rest of this year and beyond.

By

Konstantin Leidman, CFA

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Article

2024-06-30

Outlook Inflation Interest rates Fixed income Americas Monetary policy Fiscal policy Economic cycle Article

The “money illusion” economy: Misplaced faith in markets?

Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Brij Khurana shares a skeptical view of US Federal Reserve policy, his assessment of the current market backdrop, and his view of what the future could hold.

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Article

2024-06-30

Outlook Asia Macro and market Distribution EM equity Multi-asset Fixed income Equity Economic cycle Monetary policy Article

Asia: A growth story with longer-term momentum

Is China’s recovery already running out of steam? Macro Strategist Santiago Millán assesses the outlook for China and Asia and sees longer-term momentum for growth.

By

Santiago Millán, CFA

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Article

2024-06-30

EM equity Brazil Inflation Equity Economic cycle Interest rates Monetary policy Asset allocation Quick Take

Have you looked at Brazilian equities lately?

Equity Research Analyst David Reid believes now is an opportune time for EM equity investors to consider implementing or augmenting portfolio allocations to Brazilian stocks.

By

David Reid, CFA

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Quick Take

2024-05-31

Fixed income Portfolio construction Monetary policy Credit Government bonds Europe Active management Volatility Risk management Article

4 reasons why European investors may benefit from going global

Bonds are looking increasingly attractive, but a new, more volatile, normal means investors with a home bias may wish to revisit portfolios. An inconsistent policy landscape and lower hedging costs are just some of the reasons why European investors in particular may benefit from going global.

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Article

2024-05-31

Monetary policy Interest rates Inflation USA Economic cycle Bank liquidity Quick Take

Did the Fed just make a policy error?

Did the Fed just make a policy error? All things considered, Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Jeremy Forster thinks the answer is yes. Learn why and what the implications could be.

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Quick Take

2024-05-31

Japan Inflation Small cap Mid-cap Equity Economic cycle Monetary policy Article

Is the long-awaited change in Japan’s fortunes finally materialising?

Portfolio Manager Dan Maguire explores why Japan may finally be exiting deflation and assesses the opportunities this structural change could create for small- and mid-cap equities.

By

Daniel Maguire

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Article

2024-04-30

Multi-asset Bank liquidity Inflation Fixed income USA Currency Volatility Interest rates Monetary policy Quick Take

Three macro assumptions that could be just plain wrong

Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Brij Khurana offers his non-consensus take on three entrenched, but potentially flawed, beliefs in today's market environment.

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Quick Take

2024-04-30

Interest rates Monetary policy iStrat Multi-asset Multi-Asset Outlook Article Tactical allocation Multi-Asset solutions

Putting the global economy to the test

With economic and market fault lines emerging as a result of higher interest rates, members of our Investment Strategy team reassess the investment landscape and offer their views on equities, fixed income, and commodities.

Multiple authors

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Article

2023-10-31

Bank liquidity High yield Fixed income program Economic cycle Interest rates Monetary policy Fixed income Credit Quick Take

High-yield bonds: Too early to get aggressive?

Our high-yield team suggests a somewhat defensive risk posture for now but expects opportunities to take on greater risk to arise later this year.

Multiple authors

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Quick Take

2024-04-30

Volatility Inflation Alternatives Quick Take Macro and market Monetary policy Economic cycle Bank liquidity

Macro risks to watch in this rapidly oscillating global cycle

Macro Strategist John Butler explores the two key questions he believes macro investors should focus on in the current volatile environment.

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Quick Take

2024-03-31

Bank liquidity Monetary policy Inflation Economic cycle Interest rates USA Quick Take

Financial stability versus inflation: The Fed’s balancing act has gotten much trickier

The Fed’s policy calculus has clearly changed somewhat over the past few weeks but the central bank may not be done hiking rates just yet, says Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Jeremy Forster.

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Quick Take

2024-03-31

Bank liquidity Monetary policy Credit Fixed income program Volatility Interest rates Financials Quick Take

Securitized assets: Caught in the storm but with scattered bright spots

Securitized assets have been on the front lines of the ongoing turmoil in the banking sector, but not all securitized subsectors appear equally vulnerable.

Multiple authors

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Quick Take

2024-03-31

Financials Volatility USA iStrat Tactical allocation Quick Take Monetary policy Bank liquidity Multi-Asset solutions

SVB collapse: What are the implications?

Multi-Asset Strategist Supriya Menon shares her latest perspectives on the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank Financial Group (SVB) and the unfolding implications for investors. (Published 14 March 2023)

By

Supriya Menon

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Quick Take

2024-03-31

Financials Volatility Monetary policy Inflation Interest rates Collection

Tight money: Banks feeling the squeeze of higher rates

In this curated collection, some of our experts share their latest perspectives on the ongoing turmoil in the US banking sector and its potential implications.

Multiple authors

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Collection

2024-03-31

Bank liquidity Risk management Monetary policy Volatility Inflation USA Financials Quick Take

Understanding the US banking sector shake-up

Investment Communications Managers Jitu Naidu and Adam Norman detail recent US bank failures and analyze the implications. (Published 15 March 2023)

By

Adam Norman

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Quick Take

2024-03-31

Volatility Financials USA Inflation iStrat Risk management Tactical allocation Quick Take Monetary policy Bank liquidity Multi-Asset solutions

On to the next crisis: Glimpsing a post-SVB world

Amid the turmoil in the US banking sector, Global Investment Strategist Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson suggests investors consider pivoting to a “risk-management mode” that favors higher-quality assets. (Published 14 March 2023)

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Quick Take

2024-03-31

Credit Asia Emerging markets Asia advised retail Fixed income Interest rates Monetary policy Whitepaper

Deep and diverse: Welcome to today’s Asia credit market

Two of our Singapore-based experts on Asia credit discuss the market's key features, along with how it's evolved and is likely to continue doing so.

By

Ross Dilkes, CFA

Tanya Sanwal

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Whitepaper

2024-03-31

new-approach-dimensions-challenging-environment

Macro and market Economic cycle Portfolio construction Alternatives Fixed income Monetary policy Inflation Risk management Article

What does the new macro regime mean for investors?

In this Q&A with two senior market practitioners we explore what the new macro regime means for investors and what to expect next.

By

Mark Sullivan, CFA, CMT

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Article

2024-03-31

India Economic cycle EM equity Inflation Monetary policy Consumer Equity Quick Take Emerging markets

India: Structural tailwinds for 2023 and beyond

Following his recent trip to India, Macro Strategist Tushar Poddar shares why he's very positive on the country's medium- to longer-term structural outlook.

By

Tushar Poddar, PhD

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Quick Take

2024-03-31

Monetary policy Currency Government bonds Fixed income Japan Interest rates Volatility Quick Take

New BOJ governor: Dove, hawk… or owl?

Investment Director Masahiko Loo and Client Portfolio Manager Jitu Naidu discuss potential implications of the upcoming “changing of the guard” at the BOJ.

By

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Quick Take

2024-03-31

Inflation Volatility Economic cycle Fiscal policy Monetary policy Quick Take

Peak inflation, back to goldilocks? Not so fast

Portfolio Manager Nicholas Petrucelli explains why the market could be underestimating just how complex and volatile the global economic cycle is and details the implications for inflation.

By

Nick Petrucelli

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Quick Take

2024-02-29

Monetary policy Interest rates Inflation Fixed income Economic cycle USA Quick Take

February Fed meeting: Chair Powell strikes a more optimistic tone

The Fed just might still be able to engineer the hoped-for "soft landing" but it's not going to be easy, says Fixed Income Analyst Caroline Casavant.

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Quick Take

2023-09-30

Monetary policy Interest rates Japan Fixed income Economic cycle Inflation Volatility Quick Take Alternatives

Why global investors should watch the Bank of Japan

Macro Strategist John Butler explores why global investors should watch the Bank of Japan and what is likely to happen next.

By

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Quick Take

2024-01-31

Credit Investment grade Diversification Fixed income Interest rates Monetary policy Risk management Currency Quick Take

Spread the risk: Our top three fixed income diversifiers for 2023

Fixed Income Strategist Amar Reganti highlights three types of strategies that may be well positioned to provide fixed income portfolio diversification going forward.

By

Adam Norman

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Quick Take

2024-01-31

Credit Interest rates Asset allocation Fixed income Economic cycle Monetary policy Quick Take

CLOs: Poised to outperform in 2023?

Collateralized loan obligations (CLOs) have been sparking investor interest lately — and with good reason, say Investment Director Andrew Bayerl and Investment Specialist Celene Klimas.

By

Andrew Bayerl, CFA

Celene Klimas, CFA

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Quick Take

2024-01-31

Inflation Monetary policy iStrat Multi-asset Volatility Economic cycle Outlook Article Tactical allocation Multi-Asset solutions

Multi-Asset Outlook — A rocky road to recovery in 2023

Markets may be jumping the gun when it comes to expectations for a policy pivot and the likely risk-asset rewards. Members of our Investment Strategy team still see bumps in the economic road, though their outlook has brightened a bit when it comes to China and other emerging markets.

Multiple authors

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Article

2024-07-31

Japan Volatility Monetary policy Private pension (DB) Retirement Interest rates Quick Take

Could Japan face a UK-style pension crisis?

Investment Director Masahiko Loo explores the risks of Japan facing a UK-style pension crisis and identifies fundamental reasons that make Japanese pension funds inherently less vulnerable.

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2024-01-31

Credit Investment grade Economic cycle Fixed income Interest rates Monetary policy Asset allocation Quick Take Alternatives Long-short

Take credit: Our five best credit market ideas for 2023

Fixed Income Strategist Amar Reganti highlights credit market opportunities that he expects to arise over the course of 2023, against a backdrop of slowing growth.

By

Adam Norman

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Quick Take

2024-01-31

Outlook Macro and market Economic cycle Equity Fixed income Alternatives Inflation Monetary policy Geopolitical Innovation Article Sustainability

Navigating the new global economy in 2023

This executive summary distills the points of view of several of our 2023 Outlook authors. Discover the risks and opportunities they see as we enter a new economic and market regime.

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Article

2023-12-31

High yield Credit Economic cycle Fixed income Interest rates Monetary policy Asset allocation Quick Take

High yield: Opportunity to pivot in 2023?

Our high-yield bond portfolio managers have a guardedly optimistic outlook on the market and believe security selection will be key to benchmark-relative outperformance in 2023.

Multiple authors

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Quick Take

2024-01-31

Currency Macro and market Fixed income Monetary policy Asset allocation USA Quick Take

Currency outlook: Nearing the end of USD exceptionalism?

Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Martin Harvey and Investment Communications Manager Jitu Naidu consider the present state of and outlook for the US dollar.

By

Martin Harvey, CFA

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Quick Take

2023-12-31

Monetary policy Interest rates Inflation Economic cycle USA Quick Take

The Fed’s unenviable task for 2023

Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Jeremy Forster offers his forward-looking take on the Fed's comments and latest rate hike coming out of its December meeting.

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Quick Take

2023-12-31

Investment grade Fixed income Portfolio strategy Inflation Interest rates Asset allocation Monetary policy Total return Credit Quick Take

Hidden in plain sight: Overlooked opportunities in investment-grade credit

Fixed Income Strategist Amar Reganti and Investment Specialist Geoff Austein-Miller highlight some relatively simple, straightforward ways to implement a positive view on high-quality corporate credit.

By

Geoff Austein-Miller

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Quick Take

2023-12-31

Europe Inflation Economic cycle Outlook No Optimizely Monetary policy Interest rates Fiscal policy Multi-asset Article

Why Europe could surprise in 2023

Eoin O’Callaghan and John Butler discuss the contrasting prospects of the Euro Area and the UK and why 2023 could bring positive surprises in the region.

By

Eoin O'Callaghan

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Article

2023-12-31

Inflation Monetary policy Outlook Multi-Asset Outlook Volatility Multi-asset Article No Optimizely Tactical allocation Multi-Asset solutions iStrat

Multi-Asset Outlook — Higher rates for longer: What does it mean for markets?

For central banks, the inflation fight is on, but the policy and market responses will vary in the coming months. Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson and Supriya Menon discuss the implications for equities, bonds, and commodities.

By

Supriya Menon

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Article

2023-11-30

Inflation Economic cycle Macro and market Outlook No Optimizely Fiscal policy Interest rates Monetary policy Geopolitical USA Consumer Article

2023: The year of disinflation for the US economy

In the coming year, US Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan expects to see inflation begin to decline, the economy adjust to higher interest rates, and labor markets feel the pain of restrictive Fed policy.

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Article

2023-12-31

Fiscal policy Monetary policy Geopolitical USA Quick Take

Markets take US election results in stride (for now, anyway)

Client Portfolio Manager Jitu Naidu weighs in on the markets' response to, and other potential implications of, the recently held US midterm elections.

By

Tim Antonelli, CAIA, CFA, FRM, SCR

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2023-01-31

Emerging markets EM equity Economic cycle Outlook No Optimizely Monetary policy Equity Article

EM equity in 2023: Will the longest bear market in history continue?

We explore three key considerations for EM investors in today’s challenging environment and highlight potential winners and losers in 2023.

By

Jamie Rice, CFA

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Article

2023-12-31

Emerging markets EM debt Monetary policy No Optimizely Inflation Interest rates Volatility Fixed income Outlook Article

Emerging markets debt outlook: A glass half full or half empty?

Against a still-challenging global backdrop for emerging markets, Macro Strategist Gillian Edgeworth highlights opportunities created by extreme credit spread dispersion across individual countries.

By

Gillian Edgeworth

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Article

2023-12-31

High yield Credit Monetary policy Outlook No Optimizely Income Volatility Fixed income Article

High-yield bonds in 2023: Fortune favours the patient

Amid ongoing dislocation in the high-yield market, Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Konstantin Leidman sees opportunities for investors to take advantage of potentially attractive valuations.

By

Konstantin Leidman, CFA

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Article

2023-12-31

Insurance Multi-Asset Outlook Multi-asset Macro and market Inflation Volatility Interest rates Monetary policy Equity Fixed income Commodities Balance sheet Whitepaper Tactical allocation Multi-Asset solutions iStrat

Inflation, rates, and volatility: The best defense is a good offense

Insurance Strategist Tim Antonelli shares his latest multi-asset views for insurers, including the need to balance defensive portfolio strategies with continued income and return generation.

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2023-04-15

Monetary policy Economic cycle Inflation Interest rates USA Quick Take

November FOMC meeting: How slow can the Fed go?

Investment Specialist Caroline Casavant shares her takeaways from the November FOMC meeting, including thoughts on the likely pace of further Fed interest-rate hikes.

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2023-01-31

Monetary policy Inflation Interest rates Economic cycle Currency Japan Fixed income Quick Take

Bank of Japan policy shift: Waiting for the other shoe to drop?

Client Portfolio Manager Jitu Naidu and Investment Director Masahiko Loo share their take on the consensus view that Japan has reached several key inflection points.

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2023-01-31

Interest rates Inflation Fixed income Monetary policy Fiscal policy Volatility Outlook No Optimizely Government bonds Article

2023 Macro and rates outlook: Goodbye easy money, hello regime change

Macro Strategist John Butler highlights the impact of macroeconomic "regime change" on global inflation and interest rates, with potential implications for investors.

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Article

2023-12-31

Credit Interest rates Monetary policy Inflation Economic cycle Volatility Fixed income USA Quick Take

Can agency MBS bounce back from dismal performance?

Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Brian Conroy and two colleagues weigh in on the mortgage-backed securities (MBS) market in the wake of a very challenging month.

Multiple authors

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2023-01-31

Equity Volatility Monetary policy Economic cycle Interest rates Quick Take

Equity market volatility is perking up: Why now?

The recent uptick in equity volatility may be about looming macro and systemic risks in today's uncertain environment. Director of Global Derivatives Gordy Lawrence explains.

By

Gordon Lawrence, CFA

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2023-10-31

Volatility Fiscal policy Monetary policy Currency Interest rates Economic cycle United Kingdom Article

UK in the eye of the storm: which countries might be next?

Macro Strategist John Butler provides his latest take on what's happening in the UK and its broader global implications.

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Article

2022-12-31

Monetary policy Interest rates Inflation Economic cycle USA Multi-asset Quick Take

The Fed’s “lean, leave, then clean” strategy

US inflation could prove "stickier" than many observers think. How might that influence Fed policy into 2023? Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Jeremy Forster opines.

By

Nick Samouilhan, PhD, CFA, FRM

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2022-12-31

Monetary policy Inflation Risk management Macro and market Equity Fixed income Multi-asset Quick Take Tactical allocation Multi-Asset solutions iStrat

The shifting equity/bond correlation: Implications for portfolio construction

Multi-Asset Strategist Nick Samouilhan looks at what's driving the change in the all-important equity/bond relationship and what can be done about it.

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2023-09-30

Monetary policy Inflation Interest rates USA Quick Take No Optimizely Unique Perspectives

No more Mr. Nice Guy? Fed Chair Powell talks tough on inflation

Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Brij Khurana offers his latest thoughts on Fed policy following the central bank's recent Jackson Hole meeting.

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2023-09-30

Inflation Monetary policy Commodities Asset allocation Multi-asset USA Quick Take

Investment takeaways from the latest inflation data

With 2022's structural inflation story still very much intact, now may be a particularly opportune time for investors to add real-asset and inflation-sensitive exposures to their portfolios.

By

Jake Coyne, CFA, CAIA

Willa Sun

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2022-11-30

Monetary policy Credit Volatility Alternatives investing Fixed income Quick Take

The shrinking central bank balance sheet: A credit market opportunity

With the shift in central bank policy, heightened volatility and dispersion may yield a promising environment for exploiting credit market inefficiencies.

By

Derek Hynes

Ryan Valente

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2022-11-30

a shiftting macro landscape qe china and europe

China Monetary policy Geopolitical Alternatives investing Volatility Economic cycle Americas APAC EMEA Article

A shifting macro landscape: QE, China, and Europe

We explore the changing macro environment, highlighting the investment implications of the end of quantitative easing programs, the state of the Chinese cycle, and an evolving outlook on Europe.

By

Mark Sullivan, CFA, CMT

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2023-08-31

Inflation Europe Volatility Monetary policy Equity Multi-asset Alternatives Article Tactical allocation Multi-Asset solutions iStrat

High inflation and slow growth in Europe: How should investors respond?

Multi-Asset Strategist Supriya Menon explores the asset allocation implications of high inflation and slow growth in Europe.

By

Supriya Menon

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Article

2023-08-31

Economic cycle Inflation Portfolio strategy Interest rates Monetary policy Multi-asset Quick Take

Positioning for a “pricey” recession scenario

Client Portfolio Manager Jitu Naidu and Fixed Income Strategist Amar Reganti offer portfolio positioning ideas for the potential recession scenario that may lie ahead.

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2022-11-30

Inflation Fixed income Active management Fixed income — Credit Monetary policy Europe Credit Quick Take

Why today’s fixed income market is fertile ground for active management

Skilled active management has potential to shine in times of increased dispersion across fixed income sectors and regions. Now may be one of those times.

By

Tobias Ripka, CFA

Will Prentis

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2022-12-31

Emerging markets EM debt Credit Interest rates Currency Inflation Monetary policy Article

Emerging local debt markets: Time to wade in?

Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Michael Henry sees positive trends across ELD fundamentals, valuations, and technicals that could be tailwinds for these markets going forward.

By

Michael Henry

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Article

2023-08-31

Economic cycle Inflation Monetary policy USA Geopolitical Fixed income Quick Take

Reckoning with recession risk: Why this one may be “pricey”

Client Portfolio Manager Jitu Naidu shares his latest take on the looming risk of a global economic recession and related issues.

By

Nick Samouilhan, PhD, CFA, FRM

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2022-11-30

Monetary policy Interest rates Volatility Multi-asset Quick Take Tactical allocation Multi-Asset solutions iStrat

What can history teach us about today's markets? A framework for drawing comparisons

Members of our Investment Strategy Group explain how they identify similarities to past market environments and what their approach is signaling about today's conditions.

By

Alex King, CFA

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Quick Take

2022-11-30

Top of Mind Inflation Monetary policy Multi-asset USA Article Strategic allocation Multi-Asset solutions Alternatives iStrat

Will the Fed send the US economy into a recession?

Multi-Asset Strategist Adam Berger and US Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan consider the broad impact of Fed rate hikes and how asset allocators should respond.

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Adam Berger, CFA

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Article

2023-07-31

Government bonds Monetary policy Opportunities and risks Inflation USA Quick Take Fixed income

Fed rate hikes: A tailwind for bonds?

Global Investment Strategist Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson believes higher-quality, longer-duration bonds may prove resilient even if the Fed keeps raising short-term rates into 2023.

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Quick Take

2022-10-31

Inflation Europe Monetary policy Volatility Fiscal policy EMEA Article

What next for the euro area after the ECB’s historic hike?

Eoin O'Callaghan and Marco Giordano explore the ECB’s likely next steps and the potential future path of inflation and growth in the euro area.

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Eoin O'Callaghan

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Article

2023-07-05

Monetary policy Interest rates Inflation USA Fixed income Quick Take

July Fed meeting: Rising inflation vs falling growth

After another rate hike, the Fed must balance moderating growth with mounting inflation. Caroline Casavant opines on how the central bank might navigate this dilemma.

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Quick Take

2022-10-31

Inflation Monetary policy Interest rates USA Article

US inflation: Supply chains to the rescue?

Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan shares her inflation outlook, including the prospects for supply-chain normalization, and her views on the market implications.

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Article

2023-07-31

Outlook Inflation Interest rates Commodities Consumer discretionary Energy Industrials Real estate Materials Utilities Americas Innovation Monetary policy Article

Mid-2022 Inflation Outlook

We explore the current inflation environment's significant impacts on asset markets, anticipated relief in supply-chain pressures, and opportunities in commodities and enduring assets.

Multiple authors

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Article

2023-07-31

Credit Economic cycle Interest rates Monetary policy Government bonds USA Quick Take

Credit investing against a slower-growth, higher-inflation backdrop

The significant flattening of the US Treasury yield curve in recent months has some prognosticators calling for an impending US recession. Not so fast, says Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Rob Burn.

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Rob Burn, CFA

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Quick Take

2022-07-31

Outlook Fixed income Equity Factors Multi-manager solutions Large cap Inflation Value vs growth Monetary policy Volatility Manager selection Article

Mid-2022 Asset Class Outlook

We offer perspectives on growth and value equities and explore ideas for shoring up your fixed income flank amid the evolving economic and market environment.

Multiple authors

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Article

2023-07-31

Macro and market Monetary policy Fiscal policy Commodities Quick Take

Three overlooked opportunities in today’s markets

Portfolio Manager Brian Garvey highlights three large macro dislocations in today's environment that he believes the capital markets have yet to price in.

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Brian Garvey

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Quick Take

2023-06-30

Monetary policy Inflation Interest rates Fixed income Quick Take

Timely musings on Fed policy and inflation

With rising inflation and interest rates dominating the financial headlines in recent weeks, I have been fielding a flurry of colleague and client questions about the likely future trajectory of US monetary policy. While I don’t claim to have all the answers, especially with so many “known unknowns” as of this writing, here are my latest thoughts.

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Quick Take

2022-08-30

Inflation Interest rates Monetary policy Value vs growth Equity Fixed income Quick Take

US inflation risk, angry bondholders, and silver linings

Here are quick thoughts on some common questions I’ve been asked recently about Fed policy, yields, the US dollar, and financial markets.

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Quick Take

2022-08-31

Monetary policy Fixed income Equity Macro and market USA Quick Take

Is it too soon to call a “top” in US interest rates?

Are we nearing the top of the 10-year treasury rate?

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Raina Dunkelberger, CFA, CAIA

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Quick Take

2023-05-31

Credit Interest rates Risk management Monetary policy Quick Take

Empirical duration: reason for optimism on risk assets?

While rising rates often produce negative bond returns, combining the concept of empirical duration with a positive outlook on the credit cycle may bode well for some fixed income sectors' return prospects going forward. Investment Analyst Will Prenits and Investment Director Tobias Ripka explain.

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Will Prentis

Tobias Ripka, CFA

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2022-07-31

Inflation Europe Portfolio strategy Yield Monetary policy Interest rates Quick Take

Helping European investors navigate inflation fears

The recent shift to a higher inflation regime, with resulting expectations of tighter monetary policy and rising interest rates, presents a material challenge for European fixed income investors. Against this backdrop, Investment Analyst Will Prentis and Investment Director Tobias Ripka believe investment flexibility is key.

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Will Prentis

Tobias Ripka, CFA

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Quick Take

2022-07-31

Monetary policy Fixed income Equity Macro and market USA Quick Take

Five reasons to take a closer look at Brazil

I have published my views on Brazil more than once over the past year (most recently in my November 2021 blog post), but the environment there has changed markedly through the first few months of this year, with COVID-related risks seemingly on the wane and the Russia/Ukraine conflict having driven up commodity prices — so I thought now would be an opportune time to share a fresh perspective on South America’s most populous country.

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Jamie Rice, CFA

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Quick Take

2022-07-31

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Global convertibles: Poised to benefit from five structural tailwinds

Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Michael Barry and Investment Specialist Raina Dunkelberger believe global convertible bonds are likely to outperform other fixed income sectors over an investment time horizon of approximately two to three years. Learn why.

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Michael Barry

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Quick Take

2022-07-31

Credit Monetary policy Geopolitical USA Europe Quick Take

Global credit: Where do we go from here?

Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Mahmoud El-Shaer explores why 2022 may be a momentous year for global credit and sets out a framework to think through potential investment implications. 2022 promises to be another challenging year for central banks as they attempt to normalise policies in the face of surging inflation, while navigating the growing fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Since 2009, there has essentially been one trade in capital markets: riding a huge wave of central bank liquidity in support of the financial system and the economy, with the G4 central banks alone pumping approximately US$20 trillion into the system via quantitative easing (QE).

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Mahmoud El-Shaer, CFA

Annabel Gray

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Quick Take

2022-07-31

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Geopolitical Russia Europe Fiscal policy Monetary policy Energy Article

How will Russia’s invasion of Ukraine transform the euro area? Four potential paths

As the tragedy in Ukraine unfolds, Macro Strategist John Butler assesses possible implications of the conflict for Europe and the euro area. He outlines four potential paths.

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