Norway, Intermediary

Changechevron_right
menu
search
Skip to main content

Asset Allocation Outlook

Multiple authors
2025-09-10
4 min read
2026-11-05
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
474157734

The views expressed are those of the authors at the time of writing. Other teams may hold different views and make different investment decisions. The value of your investment may become worth more or less than at the time of original investment. While any third-party data used is considered reliable, its accuracy is not guaranteed. For professional, institutional, or accredited investors only.

This is a monthly snapshot of Wellington Solutions Group’s asset allocation views as of August 2025. It covers global equities, bonds and commodities and complements the more detailed analysis we share in our quarterly Asset Allocation Outlook.

Key*

1

*Please note that we use a more detailed key in our quarterly Asset Allocation Outlook

Equities

Overweight: no change

US

Neutral: no change

We maintain a neutral stance on US equities. The partial easing of trade tensions and early signals of a potentially more dovish Federal Reserve have helped lift market sentiment. However, we remain mindful of possible risks, including underperformance from AI mega-cap stocks or unexpected softness economic data. Given this backdrop, we are comfortable holding a neutral view.

Europe

Underweight: down

We have downgraded our view on European equities to a modest underweight. While the region’s evolving structural regime shift and potential for increased investments in select sectors offer long-term appeal, the nearer-term earnings outlook remains relatively subdued compared to other markets. In addition, renewed political uncertainty in France informs our revised stance.

Japan

Overweight no change

We have upgraded our stance on Japanese equities to a modest overweight. The announcement of a trade agreement reached with the US has helped ease tariff-related concerns. In addition, Japan continues to benefit from favourable structural trends, including ongoing corporate governance reforms and buyback activity, reinforcing our upgraded view.

Emerging markets

Neutral: no change

We maintain a neutral stance on emerging markets (EM) equities, consistent with last month. While EM remains an area of growing interest from a structural perspective, and both a weaker US dollar and lower global rates are supportive, we think earnings expectations are too optimistic in key countries at a time when valuations have moved higher. As such, our view remains neutrally positioned. Instead, we opt to express our relative-value preferences in other regions.

Government bonds

aa-icon-heading-neutral-nc

US

Neutral: no change

We still have a neutral view on US rates. While signs of lagged labour market weakness are starting to emerge, it remains unclear whether this trend will persist and if inflation will reaccelerate. Given this uncertainty and broadly fair market pricing, we prefer to maintain a neutral stance until policy direction becomes clearer, or market moves give us an entry point.

Europe

Neutral: no change

We maintain a neutral stance on European duration overall. From a relative-value perspective, we continue to favour UK gilts over German and French government bonds. While we are expecting upward pressure on continental European yields on one side, we also seeing a higher likelihood of sequential rate cuts by the Bank of England than is currently priced in. We also believe fiscal risk is more firmly priced in the UK relative to France. This divergence in macroeconomic dynamics and policy informs our view on relative-value positioning.

Japan

Underweight no chnage

We maintain our underweight stance on Japanese rates. With election and tariff risks fading, the likelihood of Bank of Japan rate hikes appears higher than what is priced into the rates curve. Both fiscal and monetary policy remain overly loose relative to macroeconomic fundamentals, and as such, we continue to see value in having an underweight stance.

Credit spreads

Overweight: no change

Investment-grade credit

Neutral: no change

We maintain a neutral view on investment-grade credit. While there is no immediate catalyst for spread widening, current valuations leave little room for error, prompting us to remain on the sidelines for now.

High yield

Overweight: no change

We retain a very modest overweight view on high-yield credit. Although spreads remain extremely tight, limiting near-term upside, we continue to identify selective opportunities and view the all-in yield as attractive.

Emerging markets

Neutral: no change

We continue to hold a neutral view on EM debt, in line with the previous month. At present, we see no compelling drivers to shift our stance; however, should there be substantial progress on trade agreements or geopolitical resolutions, we would be open to revisiting our view.

Commodities

Overweight no change

These asset allocation views are produced by Wellington Solutions Group, which provides client-centred investment solutions, research and advice ranging from whole portfolio solutions to bespoke single asset class and advisory partnerships. Our solutions platform incorporates expertise across multi-asset, fundamental factor investing and thematic approaches to deliver across a range of client outcomes and objectives. If you wish to discuss your investment challenges, and how Wellington Solutions can help, please contact your Wellington relationship manager or #solutions@wellington.com.

em-evolution-new-paths-in-equity-portfolio-construction-fig8

Experts

Related insights

Showing 7 of 7 Insights Posts
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

Monthly Market Review — July 2025

Continue reading
event 2025-09-08
18 min
Article
2027-08-21
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

Still climbing, just slower

Continue reading
event 2025-07-29
15 min
Article
2026-07-31
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

Quarterly Market Review — 2Q2025

Continue reading
event 2025-07-28
18 min
Article
2026-07-31
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

One Big Beautiful Bill: Why it’s “buy now, pay later” for markets

Continue reading
event 2025-07-22
4 min
Article
2026-07-31
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

The long and short (term) of markets

Continue reading
event 2025-07-19
14 min
Article
2027-01-01
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

Facing a new economic reality

Continue reading
event 2025-07-15
5 min
Article
2026-08-31
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

Severance: The split between the economy and the markets

Continue reading
event 2025-07-03
13 min
Article
2026-06-30
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

Disclosure

For professional and institutional investors only. All investing involves risk. Investment markets are subject to economic, regulatory, market sentiment and political risks. All investors should consider the risks that may impact their capital, before investing. The value of your investment may become worth more or less than at the time of the original investment. If the strategies do not perform as expected, if opportunities to implement them do not arise, or if the team does not implement its investment strategies successfully, then a strategy may underperform or experience losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results and investments can lose value.

This material is prepared for, and authorised for internal use by, designated institutional and professional investors and their consultants or for such other use as may be authorised by Wellington Management. This material and/or its contents are current at the time of writing and may not be reproduced or distributed in whole or in part, for any purpose, without the express written consent of Wellington Management. This material is not intended to constitute investment advice or an offer to sell, or the solicitation of an offer to purchase shares or other securities. Investors should always obtain and read an up-to-date investment services description or prospectus before deciding whether to appoint an investment manager or to invest in a fund.

Any views expressed herein are those of the Wellington Solutions Multi-Asset Team, are based on available information and are subject to change without notice. Individual portfolio management teams may hold different views and may make different investment decisions for different clients. While any third-party data used is considered reliable, its accuracy is not guaranteed.

This material represents an assessment of the market and economic environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. Forward-looking statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties. Actual results, performance or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources. It is not guaranteed as to accuracy, does not purport to be complete and is not intended to be used as a primary basis for investment decisions. It should also not be construed as advice meeting the particular investment needs of any investor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Read next