SpaceX IPO: Lessons, lockups, and longer-term implications

As the largest and arguably most high-profile IPO in history, SpaceX’s entry into public markets attracted intense attention.¹ Investors were keenly focused on how the market would absorb an offering of this scale — and how the shares might trade once listed.

Now that the early evidence is in, here’s what we’ve learned and the milestones we’re monitoring.

What we learned

As we predicted, there was no shortage of appetite for SpaceX shares upon listing in June 2026. Since then, however, SpaceX has fallen from its highs and, at the time of writing, has been trading back around the IPO price.

So far, this is consistent with a familiar IPO trajectory, with strong initial performance succeeded by a period of weaker performance. Historically, the majority of IPOs underperform over the next 12 months from their first-day closing price. However, the minority of IPOs that do succeed can significantly outperform, even in the first year.

Whether or not SpaceX ultimately falls into that category remains to be seen. In the meantime, here are three key milestones we’re watching.

1: What happens when lockups hit the market?

Pre-IPO shareholders are typically prohibited from selling shares for about 180 days after listing — but when these restrictions are lifted, many do sell them. This influx of shares can create a supply “overhang” — a test of investor demand that can have a detrimental effect on the share price and contribute to the underperformance that often characterizes an IPO’s first year.

Why this matters

First, despite its size in absolute dollar terms, SpaceX’s initial float was very low relative to its total market capitalization. This means that each lockup expiry could introduce a meaningful increase in supply.

Second, unlike the typical 180-day lockup, SpaceX’s lockups are set to follow a unusual, staggered schedule that releases shares gradually over time, with a view to avoiding a significant number of shares being unlocked on a single day.

Key implications for investors

As lockups expire, SpaceX’s free float — the number of available shares in the market — will increase. The first of these lockups expired in August, providing an initial test of investor demand for additional supply. While the market appears to have absorbed this release relatively smoothly, it remains to be seen whether future expiries affect the share price. Much will depend on whether investor demand remains strong enough to absorb additional supply, including from benchmark-driven investors that may become steady buyers as the float expands. It’s possible that selling shareholders will be seeking hundreds of billions of dollars of equity capital over the next year.

2: How does the SpaceX IPO impact the broader IPO landscape?

The next wave of mega-IPOs is reportedly still in the pipeline for 2026 and 2027. However, SpaceX’s IPO highlights two important realities of today’s market. First, companies are staying private for longer, and second, smaller private companies may find it increasingly challenging to go public.

Why this matters

SpaceX created history. Although its market capitalization at IPO was only slightly above Saudi Aramco's 2019 record, the scale of the offering itself was unprecedented, raising more capital than any previous listing. Founded over 20 years ago, SpaceX also illustrates just how long companies can remain private while continuing to grow. Because private companies are staying private for longer, much of their growth now occurs before they go public. This means that investors who want exposure to similar companies during their growth phase may wish to consider looking beyond public markets and seeking opportunities within late-stage growth or pre-IPO private companies.

A knock-on effect of this is that while markets appear ready to accept IPO offerings from the very largest private companies, the outlook for small- and mid-cap IPOs may now be more challenging. It seems likely that very large private companies will follow in SpaceX’s footsteps and successfully go public. But companies with a market cap of less than US$25 billion may find themselves struggling to compete for attention with mega-cap public market alternatives unless they represent a truly unique opportunity in the market.

Implications for investors

The fact that companies are staying private for longer may lead public market investors to question whether they are missing out on opportunities for growth. This may strengthen the case for viewing markets as a spectrum from private to public, rather than as separate opportunity sets. As the market evolves, we are seeing some interest from public market equity investors in late-stage private equity.