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The views expressed are those of the authors at the time of writing. Other teams may hold different views and make different investment decisions. The value of your investment may become worth more or less than at the time of original investment. While any third-party data used is considered reliable, its accuracy is not guaranteed. For professional, institutional, or accredited investors only.
Global Economic Outlook
Macro Strategists John Butler and Eoin O’Callaghan believe 2024 may be a year of intensifying macro regime change. In his exploration of key geopolitical risks and likely implications for investors, Geopolitical Strategist Thomas Mucha argues that we find ourselves in the most complex, dangerous, and unpredictable geopolitical environment in decades. Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan expects changes in US consumer and investment spending in the coming year, and highlights what she'll be watching for in terms of policy, politics, and profit margins. To help investors answer key questions about the potential macro impact of artificial intelligence, Macro Strategist John Butler sets out an initial framework. Macro Strategist Santiago Millán explores how the combination of shifting geopolitics and the energy transition could significantly reshape global trade . Commodities team members David Chang, Elise Backman, and Joy Perry maintain that commodities offer a compelling structural investment opportunity, owing to low inventories, attractive roll yields, mid-single-digit collateral returns, and rising production costs.
Alternative Investment Outlook
As investors wrestle with the economic unknowns heading into 2024, Multi-Asset Strategists Nick Samouilhan and Adam Berger argue for putting the versatility of alternative investments to work in pursuing more attractive returns, adding diversification, or mitigating risk. In their outlook for 2024, private credit experts Ryan Lewis, Emeka Onukwugha, and Elisabeth Perenick explore three pivotal themes they believe are likely to create opportunities in the year ahead: the continued rise of nonbank lenders, shifting allocations amid a decline in private credit fundraising, and the increasing importance of covenant discipline.
Sustainable Investment Outlook
Head of Sustainable Investment Wendy Cromwell posits that global supply chains will continue to be a key area of focus for governments and investors alike in 2024. She believes that policymakers, investors, and issuers lack sufficient understanding of cross-company linkages and, as a result, may be unable to pinpoint supply chains’ weakest points. Greater transparency on these interconnections should enable investors to identify risks and opportunities more clearly. Wendy highlights continued research on energy transition, biodiversity, and modern slavery, and she previews responsible AI as an emerging research topic, particularly in relation to cybersecurity.