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The views expressed are those of the author at the time of writing. Other teams may hold different views and make different investment decisions. The value of your investment may become worth more or less than at the time of original investment. While any third-party data used is considered reliable, its accuracy is not guaranteed. For professional, institutional, or accredited investors only.
In this series of charts, we explore the implications of global macroeconomic trends, such as continued inflation and a potential return to greater economic cyclicality, for fixed income, alternative, and equity markets.
The market is currently priced for continued cyclical convergence, which assumes that the historical pattern we’ve seen since the late 1990s will go on.
Discover why we disagree and believe that macroeconomic cycles are likely to be more extreme, frequent, and compressed going forward, creating both risks and opportunities we’re watching closely.
While global growth has changed or slowed in many parts of the world, it seems to be accelerating in developing Asia.
Understand why our experts believe that Asia will likely record the world’s strongest growth this year and next, an opportunity active managers could tap into effectively.
Global venture market deal activity has fallen almost 65%, from US$188.2 billion in late 2021 to US$67.4 billion in the first quarter of 20231 — the lowest point in nearly a decade.
However, we’ve seen opportunities in the market grow over the past nine months. Discover the reason for this apparent contradiction and learn why we see 2023 as a potentially strong ventage year for private equity.
1Source: Preqin Q1 2023 Venture Capital Update. Data as of 31 March 2023.
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Trends and transformation: Ideas for the year ahead
Explore our latest views on risks and opportunities across the global capital markets as we look ahead to the second half of 2023.
The intersection of geopolitics and deglobalization
The geopolitical landscape is likely to remain complex and unpredictable throughout 2024. What are the key risks to watch out for and what are the implications for investors?
Commodities: Top ideas and evolving opportunities
To help clients plan for the coming year, our commodities experts share their top near-term, medium-term, and long-term investment ideas.
The US economy in 2024: A tale of transition
Our US macro expert sees changes in consumer and investment spending in the coming year, and highlights what she'll be watching for in terms of policy, politics, and profit margins.
How geopolitics and the energy transition may reshape global trade
We explore the potential near- and longer-term market effects of deteriorating US/China relations, coupled with the shift toward a low-carbon economy.
2024: a year of intensifying macro regime change?
John Butler and Eoin O’Callaghan explore why 2024 could be a year of intensifying macro regime change and what it means for investors.
Global Economic Outlook
Our macro strategists continue to expect that the interlinkages between countries, central bank policies, and market pricing will change, creating potentially attractive opportunities for active portfolio management and security selection.
Multi-Asset Outlook: A recession is looming…or is it?
The economy has largely shrugged off the banking crisis and other concerns this year, while riding positive sentiment driven by AI enthusiasm and a possible soft landing. Members of our Investment Strategy team offer their macro and market outlook for the second half of the year, including their latest views on equities, bonds, and commodities.
How to weather the storm: A roadmap for more resilient portfolios
As we face a new era of elevated market and cycle volatility, Co-Head of Investment Strategy Natasha Brook-Walters assesses how asset owners can ensure that their portfolios are up for the challenge.
How a thematic approach can help harness change within portfolios
Multi-Asset Strategist Supriya Menon and Investment Director Andrew Sharp-Paul discuss why a thematic approach can help harness change within portfolios against a structurally different macroeconomic backdrop.
2023 Mid-year Investment Strategy Outlook
To help think through the asset allocation outlook and implications for 2023, we offer views from iStrat, our investment strategy and solutions group