Q: What are the key risks to watch over the next 6 – 12 months?
A key risk is the duration of the AI supercycle. As of today — and subject to valuations — based on the fundamentals we see from our bottom-up research, this supercycle could potentially persist for two more years. Supply is still constrained and demand remains strong, but ultimately this cycle will end. That is why we are focused on building a diversified portfolio of quality growth companies that can hold up even as the cycle slows.
Inflation is another risk I would highlight. In the short term, the war in Iran has pushed energy prices higher, creating inflationary pressure across multiple sectors, not just energy. Over the long term, deglobalization could also put upward pressure on final goods prices. Ultimately, central banks may need to raise rates to offset those inflationary forces.
We are operating in a more uncertain geopolitical environment, so policy uncertainty can always create risk. That said, these risks have often led to short-term corrections, while the broader global growth cycle has endured. Looking back, the war in Ukraine is a good example of how economies and companies have adapted and continue to drive higher returns for shareholders.
Monthly Market Review — May 2026
A monthly update on equity, fixed income, currency, and commodity markets.
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