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The views expressed are those of the authors at the time of writing. Other teams may hold different views and make different investment decisions. The value of your investment may become worth more or less than at the time of original investment. While any third-party data used is considered reliable, its accuracy is not guaranteed. For professional, institutional, or accredited investors only.
All eyes on inflation lately. US headline inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), hit an eye-popping 9.1% year over year for June 2022, its highest level since 1981. The following month, it fell to 8.5% year over year, aided by some near-term energy price relief and improved supply-chain conditions, and may well have peaked for 2022 — a welcome respite for consumers and businesses feeling the pinch of today’s elevated prices. The US Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) commitment to raising interest rates has pushed inflation expectations down as well (Figure 1), leading to a pause in the recent outperformance of inflation-sensitive assets.
However, we are not out of the woods by any means. Core US inflation (ex-food and energy prices) remains uncomfortably high at around 6%, with a broad number of contributors across the underlying subcategories. Better-than-expected jobs growth and historically low unemployment have also driven labor costs up sharply. More to the point, we think the structural inflation story 2022 began with is far from over. With that in mind, we believe now may be an opportune time for investors to add real-asset and inflation-sensitive exposures to their portfolios.
With inflation expectations down and a global recession now baked into many economic forecasts, natural-resource equities and commodities struggled in June and the first half of July, before rebounding over the last month. We believe the structural supply challenges for these sectors are still in place and will remain important return drivers going forward:
Our bullish case for inflation-hedging assets has been consistent since early 2021 and is essentially intact as of this writing:
1Roll yield is the amount of return generated in a commodities futures market after an investor “rolls” a short-term contract into a longer-term one and profits from the convergence of the futures price toward a higher price.
Peak inflation, back to goldilocks? Not so fastContinue reading
February Fed meeting: Chair Powell strikes a more optimistic toneContinue reading
Why investing in themes for EM equities may reap rewardsContinue reading
Why global investors should watch the Bank of JapanContinue reading
Multi-Asset Outlook — A rocky road to recovery in 2023Continue reading
US recession risk: No longer if, but when and how badContinue reading
Picture this: Our 2023 economic forecast in five chartsContinue reading
Peak inflation, back to goldilocks? Not so fast
Portfolio Manager Nicholas Petrucelli explains why the market could be underestimating just how complex and volatile the global economic cycle is and details the implications for inflation.
February Fed meeting: Chair Powell strikes a more optimistic tone
The Fed just might still be able to engineer the hoped-for "soft landing" but it's not going to be easy, says Fixed Income Analyst Caroline Casavant.
Why investing in themes for EM equities may reap rewards
Portfolio Manager Dáire Dunne outlines why he is increasingly optimistic about the potential opportunities within select EM equity themes this year.
Why global investors should watch the Bank of Japan
Macro Strategist John Butler explores why global investors should watch the Bank of Japan and what is likely to happen next.
Multi-Asset Outlook — A rocky road to recovery in 2023
Markets may be jumping the gun when it comes to expectations for a policy pivot and the likely risk-asset rewards. Members of our Investment Strategy team still see bumps in the economic road, though their outlook has brightened a bit when it comes to China and other emerging markets.
US recession risk: No longer if, but when and how bad
Portfolio Managers Brij Khurana, Brian Garvey, and Nick Petrucelli believe many observers are underestimating the severity of a potential US recession this year.
Picture this: Our 2023 economic forecast in five charts
We explain the shifts the market is undergoing, analyze the implications for different asset classes, and identify potential risks and opportunities in a series of visuals.
Navigating the new global economy in 2023
This executive summary distills the points of view of several of our 2023 Outlook authors. Discover the risks and opportunities they see as we enter a new economic and market regime.
The Fed’s unenviable task for 2023
Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Jeremy Forster offers his forward-looking take on the Fed's comments and latest rate hike coming out of its December meeting.
Reality bites: Are equity markets too upbeat?
Cautious on global equity risk, Global Investment Strategist Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson suggests that investors favor higher-quality stocks and take a look at high-quality fixed income.
Perspectives on today’s alternative investment environment
Take a quick tour of the alternative investment environment with investors from across our macro research and hedge fund teams, as they explore the geopolitical landscape, macro volatility, and key trends like climate-change adaptation and digital tokenization.