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環球可換股債券:
五大結構利好因素

Michael Barry, 固定收益投資組合經理
Raina Dunkelberger, 特許財務分析師, CAIA, 投資總監
2023-04-21
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本刊所載見解反映作者於撰文時的觀點,其他團隊可能觀點各異,或會作出不同的投資決策。閣下投資的價值可能高於或低於初始投資時的水平。本刊所載第三方數據被視為可靠,惟概不保證其準確性。

The first quarter of 2022 proved to be challenging for most fixed income sectors, and convertible bonds were not immune from the volatility. Year to date through March 31, global convertibles had returned -5.81% — their third-worst quarterly showing since the 2008 global financial crisis — compared to -5.54% for global high-yield bonds and -6.90% for global investment-grade corporates.1 Sector composition particularly hurt global convertibles, including a sharp correction across technology (which makes up 23.8% of the convertibles universe) in response to concerns about the potential impact of higher interest rates on tech companies' growth prospects; and a rally in the energy sector (4.0% of the convertibles universe), fueled in part by supply disruptions from the war in Ukraine.

Looking ahead, however, we continue to believe global convertibles are likely to outperform other fixed income sectors over an investment time horizon of approximately two to three years.

The five structural tailwinds

Our bullish secular outlook for global convertibles is based on five key considerations

  1. Positive forward-looking total-return potential due to:
    • What we see as reasonable to somewhat attractive credit valuations vis à vis the equity market (Figure 1);
    • Positive convexity2 in a negatively convex, lower-yielding high-yield market; and
    • The presence of industry leaders and secular "winners" in the convertibles space.
  2. Low exposure to traditionally more inflation-sensitive sectors like commodities (e.g., energy, metals & mining) and industrials, as persistent inflation continues to pose a headwind for many other asset classes.
  3. Low sensitivity to changes in interest rates, which historically (in contrast to many other fixed income sectors) has often led to strong convertibles performance in rising-rate settings like today's.
  4. Generally favorable corporate fundamentals, including:
    • Better-quality balance sheets for convertible issuers as a group versus their high yield counterparts; and
    • An environment that remains ripe for M&A and shareholder-friendly events, from which convertibles' equity component may benefit.
  5. The likelihood of a resumption of robust primary issuance in the months to come, given recent accounting rule changes that no longer require issuers to bifurcate equity and credit components.
Figure 1
global-convertibles-poised-to-benefit-from-five-structural-tailwinds-fig1

Risks to our outlook

The "bear case" risk factors that we're watching most closely these days include:

  1. A mixed global macroeconomic picture, where falling consumer confidence and other leading economic indicators may signal increased global recession risk; and
  2. Energy prices continuing to climb amid ongoing geopolitical turmoil, perhaps pushing the global economy toward recession and/or "stagflation" (rising inflation paired with slowing growth).

However, it's always possible that a severe economic shock could cause global central banks to delay their monetary policy tightening efforts or even reverse course on their planned interest-rate hikes, which would likely help alleviate the risk of a global recession.

Bottom line on convertibles

Today's uncertain landscape is not without potential risks for convertible bond investors to be mindful of, but as of this writing, we are cautiously optimistic on global convertibles' performance prospects going forward. We will update our views if/as market conditions warrant in the months ahead.


1Asset classes are proxied by the following indices: Global convertibles: ICE BofA Global 300 Convertible Index; Global high yield: ICE BofA Global High Yield Index; Global investment-grade corporates: ICE BofA Global Corporate Index. Sources: Bloomberg, BofA Global Research. Data as of 31 March 2022. | 2Convexity is a measure of the curvature in the relationship between fixed income asset prices and their current yields, showing how a bond's duration changes as its yield changes. For example, a bond is said to have positive convexity if its duration increases as its yield decreases. Positive convexity generally leads to greater increases in bond prices.

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在未有威靈頓投資管理明確書面批准的情況下,概不可複製或轉載本刊全部或任何部分內容。本文件僅供參考之用,並非任何人士要約或邀請認購威靈頓投資管理(盧森堡)SICAV基金III系列的股份。本文件所載資料不應被視為投資建議,亦非買賣任何股份之推介。基金投資不一定適合所有投資者。所載見解反映作者於撰文時的觀點,可予更改而不作另行通知。投資者於作出投資決定前,務請細閱基金及子基金的產品資料概要、基金招股章程及香港說明文件,以了解詳情(包括風險因素),其他有關文件包括年度及半年度財務報告。

由威靈頓管理香港有限公司刊發。投資涉及風險。過去業績並不代表將來表現。本文件未經香港證券及期貨事務監察委員會審閱。