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The “cleanest dirty shirt” now has too many stains

Fixed Income Portfolio Manager posits that US fiscal profligacy will change the game for asset allocators. 

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2024-09-30
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Shareholder activism in Japan: Integrating ESG within the investment process

In the final article within our series on shareholder activism in Japan, ESG Analyst Soo Ho Jung shares how the Japan equity team integrates ESG to help realize value for investors.

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2024-09-30
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Long/short investing in European equities' growing dispersion 

We explore how growing dispersion in European equity markets is driving opportunities for long/short investors, fueled by structurally higher inflation, changing market leadership, and a renewed focus on valuation.

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2024-09-30
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Fed not yet willing to declare victory on inflation

We think the Fed is done raising rates for this cycle, despite the likelihood that they are being overly optimistic about inflation. Read to find out why.

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2024-03-31
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Three themes (and what they mean) for income investors

With several macro crosscurrents at play, Portfolio Manager Peter Wilke suggests that income-oriented investors not lose sight of the “big picture” in their quest for yield.

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2024-08-31
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Why the change of direction in Germany warrants close attention

Macro Strategist Nicolas Wylenzek assesses the shifts underway in Germany and Europe more broadly, including the recent surge in the far right's popularity and the challenges associated with the energy transition.

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2024-09-30
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Public CRE debt — Risk, opportunity, or both?

Our experts explore the implications of the ongoing stress in the public CRE debt, or commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS), space for investors and analyze risks and opportunities for ratings-constrained insurers.

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2024-09-30
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US regional banking sector update

We explore how banking regulation and legislation could impact US regional banks, including highlighting the potential for M&A activity and for dispersion to drive long/short opportunities.

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2024-08-31
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Reasons for optimism about Indian equities

Our experts explain why, despite criticisms that Indian equities trade at higher valuations today than they have historically, they may have the potential to help drive total returns over time.

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2024-08-31
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After the US downgrade: Thoughts on public debt, bond yields, and Fed policy

In the wake of the US debt downgrade by Fitch, Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan explains what worries her most about the nation's debt situation and considers the impact on the term premium and the Fed’s plans.

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2024-08-31
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Commercial property values shrinking? No problem for big cities

We analyze the impact of declining office property values and outline the reasons why they believe large cities should be able to weather the storm of shrinking commercial property value.

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2024-08-31
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Why cash won’t cut it for long: The case for bonds

Global Investment and Multi-Asset Strategist Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson and Investment Strategy Analyst Patrick Wattiau explore the relative potential benefits of bonds versus cash.

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2024-08-31
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What AI could mean for fixed income

Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Brij Khurana details the potential effects of artificial intelligence on the fixed income market.

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2024-08-31
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Seven observations on the latest US/China executive order

Geopolitical Strategist Thomas Mucha shares his analysis of the recent Biden administration executive order, which aims to restrict investment into certain sectors in China, and details the potential investment implications. 

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2024-08-31
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How would emerging markets weather a “standard” recession?

Macro Strategist Gillian Edgeworth explores the potential impact of a developed market recession on emerging markets.

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2024-08-31
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How to interpret the Bank of Japan’s latest policy shift

We analyse the wide-ranging investment implications of the Bank of Japan's latest policy shift.

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2024-08-31
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Shareholder activism in Japan: How our engagement approach drives value

Equity Portfolio Manager Katsuhiro Iwai introduces the Japan equity investment team's approach to engagement, sharing a number of successful recent case studies.

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2024-08-31
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US loses its AAA rating (again)

US Macro Strategist Michael Medeiros analyzes Fitch's recent downgrade of US credit quality and explores the bigger issues at play.

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2024-08-31
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Chair Powell maintains optionality

Fixed Income Analyst Caroline Casavant shares what she thinks matters most for investors in light of the latest interest-rate hike from the Fed.

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2024-07-31
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Bank loans remain attractive despite macroeconomic uncertainty

Our experts believe that bank loans currently offer attractive levels of income and have already priced in an overly bearish macroeconomic view.

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2024-07-31
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The great American labor shortage: Causes, consequences, and solutions

Shifting demographics suggest that US labor markets will remain tight in years to come, with major implications for income inequality, investment spending, and government policy.

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2024-06-30
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How to weather the storm: A roadmap for more resilient portfolios

As we face a new era of elevated market and cycle volatility, Co-Head of Investment Strategy Natasha Brook-Walters assesses how asset owners can ensure that their portfolios are up for the challenge.

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2024-07-31
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State of the credit markets: Does cash rule everything around us?

Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Brij Khurana outlines the state of the credit market today, compares historical periods of quantitative easing, and warns credit investors of cash scarcity in the near future. 

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2024-06-30
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Asia Tech: Building the technology for everything, everywhere, all at once

Yash Patodia articulates the investment opportunities within generative AI and mixed reality - two themes that are supercharging the tech industry. He outlines how Asia is the bedrock of the innovation and where he believes the world’s future growth will be.

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2024-07-31
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Insurance Quick Takes: Unpacking potential impacts of newly proposed NAIC regulations

Tim Antonelli, Head of Multi-Asset Strategy – Insurance, analyzes the potential impact for US insurers of a recent proposal that could allow the NAIC's security valuation office to override ratings of investments.

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2024-06-30
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Investing in the age of great-power competition

As competition between great powers intensifies, a new global order is taking shape. Geopolitical Strategist Thomas Mucha explores the investment implications of a more fragmented and fractious world.

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2024-06-30
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European equities: cyclically challenged but structurally supported

Macro Strategist Nicolas Wylenzek discusses why, despite cyclical challenges, European equities may be in the best structural position that they have been in for years.

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2024-06-30
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Chinese equities: Pockets of strength for patient stock pickers

Portfolio manager Bo Meunier explores how China’s recovery may be more modest than headline numbers suggest and why, as a stock picker, she remains constructive.

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2024-06-30
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Fed skips along the path to a pause

Jeremy Forster analyzes the Federal Reserve's decision to pause its interest-rate hiking cycle, explains why he believes it could be an extended pause, and shares the potential implications for fixed income markets.

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2024-06-30
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Activism – History and evolution in Japan

Investment Specialist Toshiki Izumi examines the history of shareholder activism in Japan, with particular emphasis on the differences between current and historical attitudes toward activism.

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2024-06-30
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Mid-year Investment Outlook

Explore our latest views on risks and opportunities across the global capital markets as we look ahead to the second half of 2023.

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2024-06-30
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When the US sneezes, does the world still catch a cold?

Macro Strategist John Butler discusses the growing potential for cyclical and monetary policy divergence, despite markets pricing for the contrary, and assesses what it means for investors.

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2024-05-31
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Mid-year Bond Market Outlook

In this collection fixed income experts across our platform highlight risks and opportunities for discerning fixed income allocators looking ahead to the second half of 2023.

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2024-06-30
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Europe/US divergence: the ECB has further to go

How far will Europe diverge from the US? Macro Strategist Eoin O’Callaghan sees several reasons sustaining this growing divergence. 

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2024-06-30
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A quiet bull market in EM local debt?

Brian Garvey illustrates the recent strength of emerging markets local debt following an extended period of underperformance. 

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2024-06-30
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Inflation loosens its grip, but bank turmoil could put the squeeze on US growth

US Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan weighs the benefits of disinflation for consumers and companies against the risks of a credit crunch brought on by the recent bank crisis.

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2024-05-31
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Asia: A growth story with longer-term momentum

Is China’s recovery already running out of steam? Macro Strategist Santiago Millán assesses the outlook for China and Asia and sees longer-term momentum for growth. 

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2024-06-30
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The “money illusion” economy: Misplaced faith in markets?

Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Brij Khurana shares a skeptical view of US Federal Reserve policy, his assessment of the current market backdrop, and his view of what the future could hold.

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2024-06-30
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EM equities: Can they prove the doubters wrong?

Multi-Asset Strategist Adam Berger offers six reasons that EM equity performance could be much more compelling in the decade ahead, from attractive valuations to economic tailwinds to mean reversion in the US dollar.

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2024-05-31
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Have you looked at Brazilian equities lately?

Equity Research Analyst David Reid believes now is an opportune time for EM equity investors to consider implementing or augmenting portfolio allocations to Brazilian stocks. 

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2024-05-31
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US debt ceiling back in focus: The context matters

US Macro Strategist Mike Medeiros shares his latest thoughts on the US debt-ceiling standoff, including its potential outcomes and implications.

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2024-05-31
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Will emerging Asia leapfrog the energy transition?

Decarbonizing while maintaining economic growth presents tremendous challenges for developing countries in Asia. Is technological innovation the solution?

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2024-05-31
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Did the Fed just make a policy error?

Did the Fed just make a policy error? All things considered, Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Jeremy Forster thinks the answer is yes. Learn why and what the implications could be.

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2024-05-31
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India equity's improving risk/return tradeoff

This is not your grandfather's India equity market. Equity Portfolio Manager Niraj Bhagwat and Investment Director Philip Brooks explain why and back their argument with risk/return data.  

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2024-04-30
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Is the long-awaited change in Japan’s fortunes finally materialising?

Portfolio Manager Dan Maguire explores why Japan may finally be exiting deflation and assesses the opportunities this structural change could create for small- and mid-cap equities.

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2024-04-30
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Three macro assumptions that could be just plain wrong

Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Brij Khurana offers his non-consensus take on three entrenched, but potentially flawed, beliefs in today's market environment.

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2024-04-30
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European stocks: Regime change and the valuation gap

Portfolio Manager Dirk Enderlein explains why we may see more dispersion in European stocks in coming years and why there may be greater clarity about which stocks will be the new market leaders.

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2024-04-30
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US banking system: Three pressing questions

Equity Strategist Andrew Heiskell asks three questions investors ought to ask when it comes to the recent US banking system volatility.

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2024-04-30
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Emerging markets health care: Ready for takeoff?

Global Industry Analyst Sue Su shares her sanguine outlook on the health care sector in emerging markets, especially in China, which represents the largest opportunity in this space.

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2024-03-31
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Will higher rates sap US consumer spending?

Higher interest rates have increased borrowing costs. Could a consumer-led US recession be looming? Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Kyra Fecteau sees three factors that may help mitigate the impact.

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2024-03-31
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Analysing the bright outlook in Asia tech

Global Industry Analyst Yash Patodia outlines the state of the Asia tech sector today and identifies potential long-term opportunities in this space.

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2024-03-31
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Financial stability versus inflation: The Fed’s balancing act has gotten much trickier

The Fed’s policy calculus has clearly changed somewhat over the past few weeks but the central bank may not be done hiking rates just yet, says Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Jeremy Forster. 

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2024-03-31
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The allocator’s perspective: three key decisions on EM equities

How can investors best access opportunities within an improving outlook for emerging market equities? Natasha Brook-Walters, co-head of iStrat, shares three key decision points for allocators.

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2024-03-31
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Deep and diverse: Welcome to today’s Asia credit market

Two of our Singapore-based experts on Asia credit discuss the market's key features, along with how it's evolved and is likely to continue doing so.

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2024-03-31
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Understanding the US banking sector shake-up

Investment Communications Managers Jitu Naidu and Adam Norman detail recent US bank failures and analyze the implications. (Published 14 March 2023)

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2024-03-31
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On to the next crisis: Glimpsing a post-SVB world

Amid the turmoil in the US banking sector, Global Investment Strategist Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson suggests investors consider pivoting to a “risk-management mode” that favors higher-quality assets. (Published 14 March 2023)

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2024-03-31
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SVB collapse: What are the implications?

Multi-Asset Strategist Supriya Menon shares her latest perspectives on the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank Financial Group (SVB) and the unfolding implications for investors. (Published 14 March 2023)

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2024-03-31
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India: Structural tailwinds for 2023 and beyond

Following his recent trip to India, Macro Strategist Tushar Poddar shares why he's very positive on the country's medium- to longer-term structural outlook.

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2024-03-31
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New BOJ governor: Dove, hawk… or owl?

Investment Director Masahiko Loo and Client Portfolio Manager Jitu Naidu discuss potential implications of the upcoming “changing of the guard” at the BOJ.

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2024-03-31
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US debt-ceiling risk: Justifiable jitters?

With markets on high alert around the US debt-ceiling standoff, Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan lays out some possible paths forward and weighs the economic risks.

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2024-02-29
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Russia/Ukraine: One year in with no end in sight

Geopolitical Strategist Thomas Mucha analyzes the impacts of the Russia/Ukraine conflict one year in and identifies potential longer-term effects.

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2024-02-29
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European equities: a complex story

Macro Strategist Nicolas Wylenzek examines the complex prospects of European equities from both a near-term and structural perspective.

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2024-02-29
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Debt and dysfunction in Washington: The US hits the ceiling (again)

Global Investment Strategist Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson talks to Macro Strategist Mike Medeiros about the US debt-ceiling showdown and considers its potential investment implications.

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2024-02-29
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EM evolution: New paths in equity portfolio construction

Multi-Asset Strategist Adam Berger offers a framework for structuring EM equity portfolios, with a focus on "EM 3.0" — differentiated active strategies that have less reference to cap-weighted benchmarks and may be more diversifying in a portfolio.

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2024-01-31
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Why investing in themes for EM equities may reap rewards

Portfolio Manager Dáire Dunne outlines why he is increasingly optimistic about the potential opportunities within select EM equity themes this year.

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2024-02-29
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February Fed meeting: Chair Powell strikes a more optimistic tone

The Fed just might still be able to engineer the hoped-for "soft landing" but it's not going to be easy, says Fixed Income Analyst Caroline Casavant.

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2023-09-30
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Why global investors should watch the Bank of Japan

Macro Strategist John Butler explores why global investors should watch the Bank of Japan and what is likely to happen next.

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2024-01-31
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How to invest amidst a still unfolding energy crisis?

In this ActiveViews webcast, senior climate – and energy – focused professionals explore the still unfolding energy crisis in Europe and the associated challenges and opportunities for investors. 

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2024-02-29
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China internet: Identifying opportunities amid economic reopening 

China’s re-opening and economic recovery from its zero-COVID policy has bolstered our optimism in Chinese internet companies.

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2023-12-31
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Could Japan face a UK-style pension crisis?

Investment Director Masahiko Loo explores the risks of Japan facing a UK-style pension crisis and identifies fundamental reasons that make Japanese pension funds inherently less vulnerable. 

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2024-01-31
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China equity in 2023: Year of the stock picker

Despite the potential risks of investing in China equity, Equity Portfolio Manager Bo Meunier believes there are attractive opportunities for patient, discerning stock pickers.

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2023-12-31
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Currency outlook: Nearing the end of USD exceptionalism?

Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Martin Harvey and Investment Communications Manager Jitu Naidu consider the present state of and outlook for the US dollar.

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2023-12-31
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The Fed’s unenviable task for 2023

Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Jeremy Forster offers his forward-looking take on the Fed's comments and latest rate hike coming out of its December meeting. 

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2023-12-31
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2023 Global Economic Outlook
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Why Europe could surprise in 2023 

Eoin O’Callaghan and John Butler discuss the contrasting prospects of the Euro Area and the UK and why 2023 could bring positive surprises in the region.

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2023-12-31
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China’s economy: Poised to exceed expectations in 2023

With the bar set so low for China's economy, Macro Strategist Santiago Millan thinks it won't take much for an upside surprise in 2023. 

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2023-12-31
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A new blueprint for US trade: Building a more resilient, sustainable, and competitive economy

Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan explains how the Biden administration is reshaping US trade policy to reflect today's global realities, including supply-chain challenges, decarbonization, and geopolitical turmoil.

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2023-12-31
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How to find potential in volatile European high-yield markets?

Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Konstantin Leidman discusses why European high-yield investors need to be ready for both further volatility and the emergence of new opportunities.  

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2023-12-31
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Biodiversity: Why investors should take note

With scientists now broadly agreeing on the risks posed by accelerating biodiversity loss, Chris Goolgasian and Jenny Xie assess implications for investors and steps they can take.

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2023-12-31
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2023 Global Economic Outlook
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2023: The year of disinflation for the US economy

In the coming year, US Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan expects to see inflation begin to decline, the economy adjust to higher interest rates, and labor markets feel the pain of restrictive Fed policy.

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2023-12-31
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By design and by default: Industry consolidation gathers steam across India

Equity Portfolio Manager Murali Srikantaiai sees increased industry consolidation in India as a largely positive trend from which some equity investors can (and should) seek to benefit.

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2023-11-30
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Wellington investor survey: inflationary Europe seen as top “problem child” of 2023

In the latest Wellington investor survey, inflationary Europe was seen as the top "problem child" of 2023.

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2023-11-30
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Markets take US election results in stride (for now, anyway)

Client Portfolio Manager Jitu Naidu weighs in on the markets' response to, and other potential implications of, the recently held US midterm elections.

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2023-01-31
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2023 Bond Market Outlook
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Emerging markets debt outlook: A glass half full or half empty?

Against a still-challenging global backdrop for emerging markets, Macro Strategist Gillian Edgeworth highlights opportunities created by extreme credit spread dispersion across individual countries.

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2023-12-31
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2023 Equity Outlook
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EM equity in 2023: Will the longest bear market in history continue?

We explore three key considerations for EM investors in today’s challenging environment and highlight potential winners and losers in 2023.

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2023-12-31
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Solving the duration mismatch to address Asian insurers’ interest-rate risk

Insurance Strategist Max Davies and ALM & Regulatory Capital Strategist Francisco Sebastian explain why diversifying across a varied mix of investment options is becoming increasingly important for Asia’s life insurers.

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2023-12-31
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A practical guide to addressing Asian insurers’ interest-rate risk

Insurance Strategist Max Davies and ALM & Regulatory Capital Strategist Francisco Sebastian examine how diversification may help Asia's life insurers to better manage their exposure to interest-rate risk.

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2023-11-30
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November FOMC meeting: How slow can the Fed go?

Investment Specialist Caroline Casavant shares her takeaways from the November FOMC meeting, including thoughts on the likely pace of further Fed interest-rate hikes.

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2023-01-31
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Bank of Japan policy shift: Waiting for the other shoe to drop?

Client Portfolio Manager Jitu Naidu and Investment Director Masahiko Loo share their take on the consensus view that Japan has reached several key inflection points.

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2023-01-31
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Financial Times Moral Money Summit Asia 2022: Impact investing across public, private and emerging markets

In this replay from the Financial Times 2022 Moral Money Summit Asia, Edwina Matthew discusses key themes in impact investing.

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2023-10-31
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India equity: An unsung long-term performance story

Despite strong long-term performance, Indian equities are often overlooked. That may be a mistake, say Equity Portfolio Manager Niraj Bhagwat and Investment Director Philip Brooks.

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2023-10-31
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Can agency MBS bounce back from dismal performance?

Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Brian Conroy and two colleagues weigh in on the mortgage-backed securities (MBS) market in the wake of a very challenging month.

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2023-01-31
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China equity: Is today's investor pessimism overdone?

The short answer is yes, say Equity Portfolio Manager Niraj Bhagwat and Investment Director Philip Brooks, who believe China may offer a short-term buying opportunity.

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2023-10-31
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After the UK sell-off: what’s next for global markets and investors?

Co-Head of Investment Strategy Natasha Brook-Walters and Head of Macro Strategy John Butler discuss the implications of the recent sell-off in UK markets for global markets and investors.

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2022-12-30
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Bank loans: Can issuers overcome higher interest expenses?
The short answer, according to Fixed Income Portfolio Managers Jeff Heuer and David Marshak, is that many can. And, they believe bank loans can outperform many other fixed-income sectors over the next 12 months.
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2023-01-31
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UK in the eye of the storm: which countries might be next?
Macro Strategist John Butler provides his latest take on what's happening in the UK and its broader global implications.
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2022-12-31
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Drug pricing reform: A bitter pill for biopharma?
Global Industry Analyst Wen Shi considers the implications of drug price reform for biotech companies — modest in the near term, but likely negative longer term.
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2023-01-31
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Thematic investing focus: The accelerating drive for financial inclusion
The global effort to expand access to financial services is getting a boost thanks to the digitalization trend and the growing consumer acceptance of technology, creating a range of investment opportunities.
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2023-09-30
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The Fed’s “lean, leave, then clean” strategy
US inflation could prove "stickier" than many observers think. How might that influence Fed policy into 2023? Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Jeremy Forster opines.
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2022-12-31
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A lesson in climate resilience: Why China’s recent heat wave wasn’t worse
See why Hong Kong-based Macro Strategist Santiago Millán believes China's investments in climate resilience can be a lesson for the rest of the world.
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2023-09-30
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India: Growth drivers are in place
Following a recent visit to India, Macro Strategist Tushar Poddar shares his take on the country's changing macro environment and its equity market.
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2023-09-30
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Germany: Reducing Russian energy dependence in a hurry
Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan sees Germany continuing to embrace the transition to renewables while also working to diversify its sources of fossil fuels.
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2022-12-30
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What does an equity market bottom look like?
Applying a historical analysis to today's market, Multi-Asset Portfolio Manager Nick Petrucelli believes US equities have not yet found a near-term bottom.
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2022-11-30
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Hidden corners of sustainability-related innovation
European small-cap equities are at the forefront of sustainability-related innovation but getting exposure to those opportunities requires a combination of research, engagement and long-term mindset.
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2023-06-30
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No more Mr. Nice Guy? Fed Chair Powell talks tough on inflation

Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Brij Khurana offers his latest thoughts on Fed policy following the central bank's recent Jackson Hole meeting.

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2023-09-30
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US/China relations: What next after Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan?
Geopolitical Strategist Thomas Mucha assesses the escalating tension in US/China relations following US Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan.
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2022-11-30
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Why collective investment trusts are gaining traction within DC plans
Growing interest in CITs within the DC space is being driven by lower fees and other benefits — a trend our DC team expects to continue.
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2023-08-31
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Investment takeaways from the latest inflation data
With 2022's structural inflation story still very much intact, now may be a particularly opportune time for investors to add real-asset and inflation-sensitive exposures to their portfolios.
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2022-11-30
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Has China’s investment landscape permanently shifted?
Multi-Asset Strategist Adam Berger and Macro Strategist Santiago Millán consider key policy-related questions hanging over the Chinese market and share some near- and long-term investment views.
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2023-08-31
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A shifting macro landscape: QE, China, and Europe
We explore the changing macro environment, highlighting the investment implications of the end of quantitative easing programs, the state of the Chinese cycle, and an evolving outlook on Europe.
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2023-08-31
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A Canadian investor’s guide to navigating climate change
Director of Climate Research Chris Goolgasian and Alan Matijas, director of Client Group in Canada, provide relevant climate-related research and insights for Canadian investors.
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2023-08-31
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High inflation and slow growth in Europe: How should investors respond?
Multi-Asset Strategist Supriya Menon explores the asset allocation implications of high inflation and slow growth in Europe.
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2023-08-31
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Cash-balance liabilities: A new investment framework
A cash-balance plan is very different from a traditional pension, and the differences can have a major impact on interest-rate sensitivity. With this in mind, we propose a focus on capital preservation, consistent income, and liquidity.
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2023-08-31
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Why today’s fixed income market is fertile ground for active management
Skilled active management has potential to shine in times of increased dispersion across fixed income sectors and regions. Now may be one of those times.
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2022-12-31
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Emerging local debt markets: Time to wade in?
Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Michael Henry sees positive trends across ELD fundamentals, valuations, and technicals that could be tailwinds for these markets going forward.
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2023-08-31
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Reckoning with recession risk: Why this one may be “pricey”
Client Portfolio Manager Jitu Naidu shares his latest take on the looming risk of a global economic recession and related issues.
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2022-11-30
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Will the Fed send the US economy into a recession?
Multi-Asset Strategist Adam Berger and US Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan consider the broad impact of Fed rate hikes and how asset allocators should respond.
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2023-07-31
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Fed rate hikes: A tailwind for bonds?
Global Investment Strategist Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson believes higher-quality, longer-duration bonds may prove resilient even if the Fed keeps raising short-term rates into 2023.
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2022-10-31
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Local perspectives matter: Grassroots research in emerging markets
During a recent research trip across India, our impact investing team witnessed the rapid pace of change and growth mindset that are expanding the impact opportunity set.
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2023-07-31
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What next for the euro area after the ECB’s historic hike?
Eoin O'Callaghan and Marco Giordano explore the ECB’s likely next steps and the potential future path of inflation and growth in the euro area.
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2023-07-05
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July Fed meeting: Rising inflation vs falling growth
After another rate hike, the Fed must balance moderating growth with mounting inflation. Caroline Casavant opines on how the central bank might navigate this dilemma.
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2022-10-31
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Mid-2022 Inflation Outlook
We explore the current inflation environment's significant impacts on asset markets, anticipated relief in supply-chain pressures, and opportunities in commodities and enduring assets.
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2023-07-31
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US inflation: Supply chains to the rescue?
Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan shares her inflation outlook, including the prospects for supply-chain normalization, and her views on the market implications.
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2023-07-31
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New IFRS financial reporting standards: how should insurers implement the changes?
ALM and Regulatory Capital Strategist Francisco Sebastian assesses how insurance companies should implement upcoming changes to International Financial Reporting Standards to create value for their shareholders and mutual members.
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2023-07-31
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Credit investing against a slower-growth, higher-inflation backdrop
The significant flattening of the US Treasury yield curve in recent months has some prognosticators calling for an impending US recession. Not so fast, says Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Rob Burn.
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2022-07-31
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Loans from Federal Home Loan Banks: An opportunity for US insurers to enhance investment yield and total return
Learn why our Financial Reserves Management Group believes FHLB loans provide compelling potential for insurers to add alpha or increase yield by borrowing at low rates and benefitting from possible favorable treatment by ratings agencies.
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2023-07-01
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New IFRS reporting standards: a game changer for insurers?
From 1 January 2023, new requirements set out in the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) on Insurance Contracts and Financial Instruments will change how insurance companies are required to measure and report their performance
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2023-06-30
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Climate from the allocator's perspective
How do different asset allocators within Wellington incorporate climate change into their investment process as markets, data and regulation continue to evolve?
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2023-05-31
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How the Russia/Ukraine conflict has galvanized the West
Geopolitical Strategist Thomas Mucha provides his latest insights on the Russia/Ukraine conflict, particularly with regard to its significant and potentially enduring impact on US/EU relations.
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2022-08-30
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Is it too soon to call a “top” in US interest rates?
Are we nearing the top of the 10-year treasury rate?
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2023-05-31
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Six reasons India may be on the cusp of a major upcycle
Numerous positive structural and cyclical factors are pointing towards a major economic upcycle in India over the next five to six years, in our view, creating a range of potential investment opportunities. We believe India’s market is supported by an evolving investment universe, powerful demographic trends, increasing urbanisation and rising wealth, export growth, geopolitical tailwinds and a supportive policy regime. These factors are coalescing at a time when the corporate deleveraging cycle of the last few years is coming to an end and a new upcycle in profitability could be beginning.
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2022-12-30
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Will Japanese buyers look beyond USD fixed income? They may have to
With the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) interest-rate-hiking cycle now underway, it’s an important time to keep a close eye on non-US buyers of US dollar (USD) fixed income securities.
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2022-07-31
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Helping European investors navigate inflation fears
The recent shift to a higher inflation regime, with resulting expectations of tighter monetary policy and rising interest rates, presents a material challenge for European fixed income investors. Against this backdrop, Investment Analyst Will Prentis and Investment Director Tobias Ripka believe investment flexibility is key.
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2022-07-31
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Five reasons to take a closer look at Brazil
I have published my views on Brazil more than once over the past year (most recently in my November 2021 blog post), but the environment there has changed markedly through the first few months of this year, with COVID-related risks seemingly on the wane and the Russia/Ukraine conflict having driven up commodity prices — so I thought now would be an opportune time to share a fresh perspective on South America’s most populous country.
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2022-07-31
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Five reasons to take a closer look at Brazil
I have published my views on Brazil more than once over the past year (most recently in my November 2021 blog post), but the environment there has changed markedly through the first few months of this year, with COVID-related risks seemingly on the wane and the Russia/Ukraine conflict having driven up commodity prices — so I thought now would be an opportune time to share a fresh perspective on South America’s most populous country.
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2022-07-31
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Russia/Ukraine: Transformational, not transitory
Four Wellington thought leaders share their distinct individual perspectives on the short- and longer-term implications of the tragic watershed conflict between Russia and Ukraine: Geopolitical Strategist Thomas Mucha on the geopolitical backdrop; Macro Strategist John Butler on what it means for Europe; Macro Strategist Santiago Millán on the role of China; and Portfolio Manager David Chang on the commodities markets.
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2022-11-30
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When will US federal deficits matter?
Now that the Federal Reserve has moved into tightening mode, it’s worth asking when the US deficits and overall debt could become a source of worry. As long as interest rates stay reasonably low without driving persistently high inflation, I believe deficits and the debt won’t matter too much to the economy or markets. The debt won’t be painful to finance and can continue to grow — within reason. In fact, if economic growth is higher than the interest rate on government borrowing, it’s possible for debt to GDP to shrink even amid sizeable deficits.
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2022-07-31
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Nearing the finish line: Ideas on end-state investing for corporate DB plans
As corporate plans approach their fully funded “end state,” new goals will need to be set. Members of our LDI team share their research on this transition and the required realignment of asset allocation strategies, including changes in return-seeking and liability-hedging portfolios and key liquidity considerations.
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2023-04-30
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Global credit: Where do we go from here?
Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Mahmoud El-Shaer explores why 2022 may be a momentous year for global credit and sets out a framework to think through potential investment implications. 2022 promises to be another challenging year for central banks as they attempt to normalise policies in the face of surging inflation, while navigating the growing fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Since 2009, there has essentially been one trade in capital markets: riding a huge wave of central bank liquidity in support of the financial system and the economy, with the G4 central banks alone pumping approximately US$20 trillion into the system via quantitative easing (QE).
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2022-07-31
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China is not Russia: Reasons to stay invested
Equity Portfolio Manager Greg Mattiko challenges investors to look at actions rather than conjecture when considering reduced exposure to China.
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2023-03-31
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What does the Ukraine invasion mean for China?
Macro Strategist Santiago Millán argues that the scale and breadth of the sanctions on Russia have increased the uncertainty of investing in China across multiple dimensions. He explores the continued decoupling of China and the West.
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2022-06-30
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Can the Fed engineer a soft landing?
As widely expected, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) yesterday raised its target federal funds rate...
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2023-03-17
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A US insurer’s roadmap for navigating the new RBC regs
With the NAIC’s latest revisions to risk-based capital (RBC) charges now on the books, what should US insurers be focused on moving forward? And how have the relative value propositions across fixed income assets and other investments changed as a result? Multi-Asset Insurance Strategist Tim Antonelli and Investment Specialist Geoff Austein-Miller share their views and insights.
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2023-03-31
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War in Ukraine: Five observations on recent developments
Macro Strategist Gillian Edgeworth assesses recent developments in the escalating Russia/Ukraine conflict and highlights five key implications.
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2023-03-31
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How will war in Ukraine shift the ESG landscape?
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has turned the spotlight on ESG in new ways. Our ESG Research Team highlights how the crisis may shape their analysis.
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2023-03-31
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War and markets: What's the connection?
Amid the geopolitical turmoil and tragic humanitarian fallout of the Russia/Ukraine crisis, many investors are naturally also concerned about the negative effects the escalating conflict could have on their portfolios. With that in mind, I thought I’d provide a quick snapshot of the impacts that past wars have tended to have on asset prices.
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2023-03-31
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Commodities investing amid the Russia/Ukraine conflict
We explore how the tragic conflict between Russia and Ukraine impacts commodities markets broadly and a few key commodities in particular.
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2023-03-31
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Ten more “what if” scenarios for 2022
In his latest Top of Mind session, Multi-Asset Strategist Adam Berger addressed a wide range of what-if scenarios on the minds of our clients. See what he has to say on Russia, China, cryptocurrencies, the IPO market, and many other topics in this brief article.
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2023-02-28
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2022 Asia Investment Forum: Investment strategy in a shifting world
Three megatrends will transform Asia’s investment landscape over the coming year, concur Wellington’s strategist panel.
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2023-03-31
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How will Russia’s invasion of Ukraine transform the euro area? Four potential paths
As the tragedy in Ukraine unfolds, Macro Strategist John Butler assesses possible implications of the conflict for Europe and the euro area. He outlines four potential paths.
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2023-03-31
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Russia/Ukraine conflict: Five things to watch closely
Amid the ongoing turmoil of the Russia/Ukraine crisis, Global Investment Strategist Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson highlights five key areas she thinks investors should keep a watchful eye on in the weeks ahead.
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2023-03-31
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For markets, it’s complicated
As markets grapple with the war in Ukraine, inflation worries, and a host of other issues, Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson and Daniel Cook offer their thoughts on the investment implications for equities, commodities, and fixed income.
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2022-10-31
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China in 2022: Embracing the volatility
China’s new antitrust, data privacy and cybersecurity regulations, combined with its education and real estate industry reforms, the continued impact of COVID-19 and rising geopolitical tensions, drove a tumultuous investment environment last year. The country’s numerous headline-grabbing changes spurred global concern given the philosophical shift towards “Common Prosperity” and the sheer scale and speed of policymaking.
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2022-08-31
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Russia/Ukraine and the commodity challenge
With commodity inventories at multi-decade lows, is rising cross-asset class volatility all but inevitable? Leveraging insights from Wellington colleagues, Thematic Strategist Trevor Noren argues that the Russia/Ukraine crisis demonstrates why the answer is likely yes.
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2023-03-31
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Geopolitical observations on Ukraine
Geopolitical Strategist Thomas Mucha integrates his observations with those of his senior-level military, intelligence and diplomatic contacts to offer insights on the potential consequences of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
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2023-03-31
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Russia/Ukraine conflict: What investors need to know
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent shockwaves around the world and has triggered sweeping punitive political and economic policy responses from the US and Europe, with the potential to usher in another cold war era in Russia’s relations with the West. Beyond the tragic humanitarian toll, this watershed event is likely to have profound geopolitical, economic and asset allocation implications. We’ve assembled this collection of timely insights, which we’ll update frequently given the fluidity of the situation, to help investors navigate these unprecedented times.
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2023-02-03
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DC plans: Three timely themes that probably aren’t going away anytime soon
Our DC plan specialists highlight three big-picture investment themes that are not only top of mind for many plan participants in today’s environment, but are also likely to have staying power in the months ahead.
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2023-03-31
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How might equity sectors fare when Fed tightening begins?
We look back at how US equities have performed in the months following the beginning of a tightening cycle, as well as how bond yields have tended to behave.
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2022-05-31
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An inside look at today’s municipal market
After a year in which municipal bonds posted respectable returns (Figure 1), many clients have been seeking forward-looking guidance on the market as a whole and (increasingly) on particular sectors of it. Here are my latest thoughts as of this writing on the outlook for the rest of 2022.
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2022-05-31
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EM local debt: Forgotten but not forsaken
The emerging markets (EM) local debt sector (as measured by the JP Morgan Government Bond Index – Emerging Markets Global Diversified) just posted its worst calendar-year performance since 2013, returning -8.75% against the headwind of higher EM local interest rates. The underlying culprit? EM inflation surprised to the upside in 2021, forcing a number of EM central banks to raise their policy interest rates in an effort to curb the impact.
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2022-09-30
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Navigating a new tomorrow
In this video, Wellington investment professionals and prominent guests articulate the structural risks and opportunities that we believe will shape tomorrow’s investment strategies, ranging from medical innovation spurred by the global pandemic to technological breakthroughs, and ideas aimed at curbing or mitigating climate risk.
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2023-01-31
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Credit and equity performance around Fed hiking cycles
One of the discussion topics du jour is how the credit and equity markets might react to the US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest-rate hikes that are widely anticipated in the coming months. As is often the case with me, I find it helpful here to refer to past hiking regimes and market performances as a sort of guidepost. The proof’s in the pudding To wit, I examined the historical returns of both US credit (for this purpose, proxied by corporate high-yield bonds) and US equities (represented by the S&P 500 Index) during the six months before the first rate increase of a Fed hiking cycle through the 12 months after said increase.
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2022-05-31
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China in 2022 - Uncorrelated but far from broken
Macro Strategist Santiago Millan highlights a trend of falling correlations between China’s economy and asset prices versus their global counterparts.
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2022-08-31
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Macro survey: Nervous about China
Respondents to our latest internal survey think the markets may be complacent about risks in China and emerging markets more broadly. Every quarter for the past six years, the Wisdom of Wellington team has surveyed around 100 of our Wellington colleagues across different investment disciplines and locations to get their views on what we see as the key macro questions of the day. The results can pinpoint where the firm’s views differ from the consensus and can also reveal significant shifts in our collective thinking.
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2023-02-28
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Can Ukraine’s economy withstand another conflict with Russia?
Macro Strategist Gillian Edgeworth assesses Ukraine’s outlook in the face of renewed conflict with Russia and finds that under most scenarios Ukraine's macro-economic prospects may be less negative than perhaps is assumed.
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2023-02-28
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Ukraine crisis: Understanding the broader picture
I believe the current standoff between Russia and the West over Ukraine is part of a global geopolitical pattern of “great-power” competition. As I explore in my 2022 Outlook, the geopolitical backdrop is becoming increasingly unpredictable and dangerous. This shift is driven primarily by US-China rivalry but also other structural factors such as domestic political polarization, and longer term, the growing impact of climate change on national security. In this new geopolitical reality, I think great powers will be more likely to act out of regional and global self-interest, especially in relation to geostrategic issues they consider core to national security. For Russia, Ukraine is such a critical security consideration and part of its wider strong geostrategic desire for cultivating “buffer states.” Accordingly, the Russian invasion threat to Ukraine is real, structural, and rooted in this emerging world order.
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2022-04-30
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Ukraine crisis: Understanding the broader picture
The tense Ukraine crisis has brought the US-Russia standoff to a head: Now what? Geopolitical Strategist Thomas Mucha argues this is all part of a global geopolitical pattern — “great-power” competition — that makes the Russian threat particularly dangerous. Read more.
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2023-02-28
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The critically important national security implications of biotech
Deepening US policy risks in the biotechnology sector have garnered some well-deserved attention from many of my colleagues lately. Given biotechnology’s potential future importance to US policymakers in the context of the ongoing US-China “great-power” competition, I’d like to share my own thoughts on what’s driving the rising geopolitical risk and national security concerns.
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2022-04-30
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What if…? Contemplating five big questions for 2022
Could there be policy, inflation, or market surprises in 2022? Multi-Asset Strategist Adam Berger weighs the possibilities and the portfolio implications.
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2023-02-28
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Japan rises to the challenge of climate change
Two of our climate investors explain how Japanese companies are developing innovative solutions to protect society from the effects of climate change.
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2023-02-28
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Euro area: Challenging long-held assumptions
We believe 2022 will be the year when macroeconomic and political developments challenge two deep-rooted misperceptions about the euro area:
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2022-04-30
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Start at the end: How to size and structure private allocations for corporate plans
How should corporate defined benefit plan sponsors think about the private allocation decision? Members of our LDI and Alternatives teams propose a “start where you want to end up” approach that incorporates liquidity and return requirements.
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2023-02-28
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The fish are biting: Exploiting Japan’s inefficient equity market
Our Japanese equity team has shown Japan to be one of the world’s most inefficient markets, making it a good “fishing pond” for alpha-seeking active managers who do their homework and apply a strong investment process.
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2021-12-31
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Seven reasons Japanese equities are worth another look
Investment Strategy Analysts Steven Ye and Daniel Cook make their case for Japanese equities, based on valuations, the “benefits” of inflation, the potential for event-driven outperformance, and other factors that may be underappreciated by the market.
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2022-09-30
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Quality-growth investing amid inflation and rising rates
We discuss how today's market impacts growth companies, including which areas are well positioned for the year ahead.
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2022-12-31
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Quality-growth investing amid inflation and rising rates
We discuss how today’s market impacts growth companies, including which areas are well positioned for the year ahead.
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2022-12-31
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Fed watch 2022: Year of the hawk?
With inflation on the rise and all eyes seemingly on the Fed these days, Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Jeremy Forster shares his takeaways from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)'s December 2021 meeting.
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2022-07-29
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2022 Global Economic Outlook
Our 2022 economic outlook describes the forces we believe will shape macro & market events, including significant inflationary and geopolitical risks.
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2022-11-30
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A credit strategy designed for all seasons
We make the case for fixed income allocators to have an “all-weather†credit portfolio composed of carefully chosen building blocks.
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2022-11-15
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Step into the metaverse
The metaverse is dominating tech headlines. Here, we explore the hardware infrastructure upgrades required to make this innovation possible and highlight the opportunities this creates for the Asia tech sector.
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2022-08-31
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Five investment essentials for a post-pandemic world
As the world “gets back to business” in 2022, a cautiously optimistic outlook seems warranted. For investors, it may be a year to think thematically.
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2022-11-30
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Time to buy credit or Treasuries? Ideas on calibrating the trade-off
After hitting derisking triggers in 2021, many plans are looking ahead to the next trigger and thinking about how expensive the investment-grade credit market is currently. LDI Team members Connor Fitzgerald and Bill Cole offer metrics to aid the decision-making process and consider potential alternatives.
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2022-11-30
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Setting ROAs for 2022: A guide for US corporate and public plans
How are pension plans adjusting their ROA assumptions? How do those assumptions line up with our long-term capital market assumptions? Find out in this annual update.
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2022-10-31
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