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Mid-year Investment Outlook
Explore our latest views on risks and opportunities across the global capital markets as we look ahead to the second half of 2023.
Article
2024-06-30
Inflation loosens its grip, but bank turmoil could put the squeeze on US growth
US Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan weighs the benefits of disinflation for consumers and companies against the risks of a credit crunch brought on by the recent bank crisis.
Article
2024-05-31
US debt ceiling back in focus: The context matters
US Macro Strategist Mike Medeiros shares his latest thoughts on the US debt-ceiling standoff, including its potential outcomes and implications.
Quick Take
2024-05-31
Did the Fed just make a policy error?
Did the Fed just make a policy error? All things considered, Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Jeremy Forster thinks the answer is yes. Learn why and what the implications could be.
Quick Take
2024-05-31
Three macro assumptions that could be just plain wrong
Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Brij Khurana offers his non-consensus take on three entrenched, but potentially flawed, beliefs in today's market environment.
Quick Take
2024-04-30
US banking system: Three pressing questions
Equity Strategist Andrew Heiskell asks three questions investors ought to ask when it comes to the recent US banking system volatility.
Quick Take
2024-04-30
Financial stability versus inflation: The Fed’s balancing act has gotten much trickier
The Fed’s policy calculus has clearly changed somewhat over the past few weeks but the central bank may not be done hiking rates just yet, says Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Jeremy Forster.
Quick Take
2024-03-31
SVB collapse: What are the implications?
Multi-Asset Strategist Supriya Menon shares her latest perspectives on the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank Financial Group (SVB) and the unfolding implications for investors. (Published 14 March 2023)
Quick Take
2024-03-31
On to the next crisis: Glimpsing a post-SVB world
Amid the turmoil in the US banking sector, Global Investment Strategist Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson suggests investors consider pivoting to a “risk-management mode” that favors higher-quality assets. (Published 14 March 2023)
Quick Take
2024-03-31
Understanding the US banking sector shake-up
Investment Communications Managers Jitu Naidu and Adam Norman detail recent US bank failures and analyze the implications. (Published 14 March 2023)
Quick Take
2024-03-31
US debt-ceiling risk: Justifiable jitters?
With markets on high alert around the US debt-ceiling standoff, Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan lays out some possible paths forward and weighs the economic risks.
Quick Take
2024-02-29
Debt and dysfunction in Washington: The US hits the ceiling (again)
Global Investment Strategist Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson talks to Macro Strategist Mike Medeiros about the US debt-ceiling showdown and considers its potential investment implications.
Quick Take
2024-02-29
February Fed meeting: Chair Powell strikes a more optimistic tone
The Fed just might still be able to engineer the hoped-for "soft landing" but it's not going to be easy, says Fixed Income Analyst Caroline Casavant.
Quick Take
2023-09-30
Currency outlook: Nearing the end of USD exceptionalism?
Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Martin Harvey and Investment Communications Manager Jitu Naidu consider the present state of and outlook for the US dollar.
Quick Take
2023-12-31
The Fed’s unenviable task for 2023
Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Jeremy Forster offers his forward-looking take on the Fed's comments and latest rate hike coming out of its December meeting.
Quick Take
2023-12-31
A new blueprint for US trade: Building a more resilient, sustainable, and competitive economy
Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan explains how the Biden administration is reshaping US trade policy to reflect today's global realities, including supply-chain challenges, decarbonization, and geopolitical turmoil.
Quick Take
2023-12-31
2023: The year of disinflation for the US economy
In the coming year, US Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan expects to see inflation begin to decline, the economy adjust to higher interest rates, and labor markets feel the pain of restrictive Fed policy.
Article
2023-12-31
Markets take US election results in stride (for now, anyway)
Client Portfolio Manager Jitu Naidu weighs in on the markets' response to, and other potential implications of, the recently held US midterm elections.
Quick Take
2023-01-31
November FOMC meeting: How slow can the Fed go?
Investment Specialist Caroline Casavant shares her takeaways from the November FOMC meeting, including thoughts on the likely pace of further Fed interest-rate hikes.
Quick Take
2023-01-31
Can agency MBS bounce back from dismal performance?
Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Brian Conroy and two colleagues weigh in on the mortgage-backed securities (MBS) market in the wake of a very challenging month.
Quick Take
2023-01-31
Bank loans: Can issuers overcome higher interest expenses?
The short answer, according to Fixed Income Portfolio Managers Jeff Heuer and David Marshak, is that many can. And, they believe bank loans can outperform many other fixed-income sectors over the next 12 months.
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Quick Take
2023-01-31
The Fed wants to crush inflation, but at what cost?
Following a higher-than-expected inflation print and the Fed's latest rate hike, Global Investment Strategist Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson considers potential implications for fixed income and equities.
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Quick Take
2022-12-31
Drug pricing reform: A bitter pill for biopharma?
Global Industry Analyst Wen Shi considers the implications of drug price reform for biotech companies — modest in the near term, but likely negative longer term.
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Quick Take
2023-01-31
The Fed’s “lean, leave, then clean” strategy
US inflation could prove "stickier" than many observers think. How might that influence Fed policy into 2023? Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Jeremy Forster opines.
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Quick Take
2022-12-31
The Inflation Reduction Act: A big deal for the US economy
US Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan considers the economic implications of the climate- and energy-related spending provisions in the IRA, including the potential for higher productivity.
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Article
2023-09-30
What does an equity market bottom look like?
Applying a historical analysis to today's market, Multi-Asset Portfolio Manager Nick Petrucelli believes US equities have not yet found a near-term bottom.
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Quick Take
2022-11-30
No more Mr. Nice Guy? Fed Chair Powell talks tough on inflation
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Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Brij Khurana offers his latest thoughts on Fed policy following the central bank's recent Jackson Hole meeting.
Quick Take
2023-09-30
US/China relations: What next after Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan?
Geopolitical Strategist Thomas Mucha assesses the escalating tension in US/China relations following US Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan.
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Quick Take
2022-11-30
Investment takeaways from the latest inflation data
With 2022's structural inflation story still very much intact, now may be a particularly opportune time for investors to add real-asset and inflation-sensitive exposures to their portfolios.
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Quick Take
2022-11-30
Cash-balance liabilities: A new investment framework
A cash-balance plan is very different from a traditional pension, and the differences can have a major impact on interest-rate sensitivity. With this in mind, we propose a focus on capital preservation, consistent income, and liquidity.
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Article
2023-08-31
Reckoning with recession risk: Why this one may be “pricey”
Client Portfolio Manager Jitu Naidu shares his latest take on the looming risk of a global economic recession and related issues.
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Quick Take
2022-11-30
Will the Fed send the US economy into a recession?
Multi-Asset Strategist Adam Berger and US Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan consider the broad impact of Fed rate hikes and how asset allocators should respond.
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Article
2023-07-31
Fed rate hikes: A tailwind for bonds?
Global Investment Strategist Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson believes higher-quality, longer-duration bonds may prove resilient even if the Fed keeps raising short-term rates into 2023.
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Quick Take
2022-10-31
July Fed meeting: Rising inflation vs falling growth
After another rate hike, the Fed must balance moderating growth with mounting inflation. Caroline Casavant opines on how the central bank might navigate this dilemma.
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Quick Take
2022-10-31
US inflation: Supply chains to the rescue?
Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan shares her inflation outlook, including the prospects for supply-chain normalization, and her views on the market implications.
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Article
2023-07-31
Credit investing against a slower-growth, higher-inflation backdrop
The significant flattening of the US Treasury yield curve in recent months has some prognosticators calling for an impending US recession. Not so fast, says Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Rob Burn.
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Quick Take
2022-07-31
Is it too soon to call a “top” in US interest rates?
Are we nearing the top of the 10-year treasury rate?
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Quick Take
2023-05-31
Nearing the finish line: Ideas on end-state investing for corporate DB plans
As corporate plans approach their fully funded “end state,” new goals will need to be set. Members of our LDI team share their research on this transition and the required realignment of asset allocation strategies, including changes in return-seeking and liability-hedging portfolios and key liquidity considerations.
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Article
2023-04-30
When will US federal deficits matter?
Now that the Federal Reserve has moved into tightening mode, it’s worth asking when the US deficits and overall debt could become a source of worry. As long as interest rates stay reasonably low without driving persistently high inflation, I believe deficits and the debt won’t matter too much to the economy or markets. The debt won’t be painful to finance and can continue to grow — within reason. In fact, if economic growth is higher than the interest rate on government borrowing, it’s possible for debt to GDP to shrink even amid sizeable deficits.
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2022-07-31
Global credit: Where do we go from here?
Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Mahmoud El-Shaer explores why 2022 may be a momentous year for global credit and sets out a framework to think through potential investment implications. 2022 promises to be another challenging year for central banks as they attempt to normalise policies in the face of surging inflation, while navigating the growing fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Since 2009, there has essentially been one trade in capital markets: riding a huge wave of central bank liquidity in support of the financial system and the economy, with the G4 central banks alone pumping approximately US$20 trillion into the system via quantitative easing (QE).
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Quick Take
2022-07-31
Ten more “what if” scenarios for 2022
In his latest Top of Mind session, Multi-Asset Strategist Adam Berger addressed a wide range of what-if scenarios on the minds of our clients. See what he has to say on Russia, China, cryptocurrencies, the IPO market, and many other topics in this brief article.
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Article
2023-02-28
For markets, it’s complicated
As markets grapple with the war in Ukraine, inflation worries, and a host of other issues, Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson and Daniel Cook offer their thoughts on the investment implications for equities, commodities, and fixed income.
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Article
2022-10-31
Preserving funded-ratio stability in volatile markets
Faced with extreme market volatility in the early months of 2022, what can corporate DB plan sponsors do to potentially provide stability in their portfolios while still pursuing longer-term funding aspirations? Multi-Asset Strategist Amy Trainor offers thoughts on rerisking, hedge ratios, and liability-hedging and return-seeking allocations.
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Article
2023-03-31
How might equity sectors fare when Fed tightening begins?
We look back at how US equities have performed in the months following the beginning of a tightening cycle, as well as how bond yields have tended to behave.
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Quick Take
2022-05-31
An inside look at today’s municipal market
After a year in which municipal bonds posted respectable returns (Figure 1), many clients have been seeking forward-looking guidance on the market as a whole and (increasingly) on particular sectors of it. Here are my latest thoughts as of this writing on the outlook for the rest of 2022.
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Quick Take
2022-05-31
Regime change likely to challenge modern market structures
Recently, I wrote about the rotation from growth to value and why some of my colleagues and I expect volatility, more than a smooth transition of leadership, to define markets. The thesis is rooted in the fact that seismic macro questions loom over markets and are likely to trigger violent fluctuations in investor conviction. Earlier this month, Macro Strategist John Butler dissected one of these questions: Will the negative correlation between stocks and bonds turn positive?
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Quick Take
2022-05-31
Credit and equity performance around Fed hiking cycles
One of the discussion topics du jour is how the credit and equity markets might react to the US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest-rate hikes that are widely anticipated in the coming months. As is often the case with me, I find it helpful here to refer to past hiking regimes and market performances as a sort of guidepost.
The proof’s in the pudding
To wit, I examined the historical returns of both US credit (for this purpose, proxied by corporate high-yield bonds) and US equities (represented by the S&P 500 Index) during the six months before the first rate increase of a Fed hiking cycle through the 12 months after said increase.
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Quick Take
2022-05-31
The critically important national security implications of biotech
Deepening US policy risks in the biotechnology sector have garnered some well-deserved attention from many of my colleagues lately. Given biotechnology’s potential future importance to US policymakers in the context of the ongoing US-China “great-power” competition, I’d like to share my own thoughts on what’s driving the rising geopolitical risk and national security concerns.
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Quick Take
2022-04-30
What if…? Contemplating five big questions for 2022
Could there be policy, inflation, or market surprises in 2022? Multi-Asset Strategist Adam Berger weighs the possibilities and the portfolio implications.
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Article
2023-02-28
Start at the end: How to size and structure private allocations for corporate plans
How should corporate defined benefit plan sponsors think about the private allocation decision? Members of our LDI and Alternatives teams propose a “start where you want to end up” approach that incorporates liquidity and return requirements.
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Article
2023-02-28
Fed watch 2022: Year of the hawk?
With inflation on the rise and all eyes seemingly on the Fed these days, Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Jeremy Forster shares his takeaways from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)'s December 2021 meeting.
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2022-07-29
LDI in 2022: Nine questions corporate plan sponsors are asking
Our LDI Team offers insights for the coming year, addressing some of the most commonly asked questions on funded ratios, securitized assets, intermediate credit, alternatives, and other return-seeking and liability-hedging topics.
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Article
2022-12-31
2022 Global Economic Outlook
Our 2022 economic outlook describes the forces we believe will shape macro & market events, including significant inflationary and geopolitical risks.
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Article
2022-11-30
Setting ROAs for 2022: A guide for US corporate and public plans
How are pension plans adjusting their ROA assumptions? How do those assumptions line up with our long-term capital market assumptions? Find out in this annual update.
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Article
2022-10-31
The evolution of derisking: Assessing new and time-tested liability-hedging ideas
As defined benefit plans contemplate the best path to their eventual “end state,” members of our LDI team update their liability-hedging research with a blend of traditional benchmark ideas and new opportunities to capitalize on changing market conditions and a broader investment universe.
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Article
2022-09-30
Five reasons to think US inflation has staying power
After a lengthy absence, inflation has finally returned to the US, but for how long depends on who you ask. Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Brij Khurana offers his view on why US inflation may prove to be more enduring than many observers think.
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Quick Take
2021-11-30
A revival in US investment spending: Implications of the Biden infrastructure plan
US Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan discusses six key themes in the US infrastructure proposals, from shovel-ready projects to modernization of the power grid, and considers the broad economic impact and potential for unintended consequences.
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Article
2022-08-31
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