- Portfolio Manager
Formats
Corporate Sustainability
Investment Solutions
Our approach to sustainability
Norway, Intermediary
ChangeThe views expressed are those of the author at the time of writing. Other teams may hold different views and make different investment decisions. The value of your investment may become worth more or less than at the time of original investment. While any third-party data used is considered reliable, its accuracy is not guaranteed. For professional, institutional, or accredited investors only.
Accelerating globalization was a hallmark of the late twentieth and early twenty-first centuries. Now, we’re trending toward a reversal. We explore the roots and potential effects of deglobalization.
How did we get here?
Three central themes underpin today’s shift toward deglobalization:
1. Economics
In the 1990s and early 2000s, major global economies gained access to cheap, formerly inaccessible labor, first from the then-newly disbanded USSR and later from China.
However, incremental benefits from globalization were waning as wages had risen, and then the COVID-19 pandemic laid bare the fragility of many global supply chains, which, in turn, raised security concerns. Major global economies, like the US, became aware of how much they depended on labor other markets and began taking action to change this.
2. Politics
Globalization helped curb global inequality via fast-developing market growth and use of undervalued foreign labor. The other side of the coin is that access to inexpensive labor helped push corporate profits to new highs in developed countries, benefiting capital while reducing labor’s share of GDP, exacerbating domestic inequality.
In the past few years, these dynamics have come under fire and policies have been put in place to restrict the movement of goods, people, capital, and technology. And this isn’t just about competition with China. Legislation such as the Inflation Reduction Act favors domestic industry, including versus allies, such as Europe.
3. Geopolitics
The US-led geopolitical order of the past three decades is changing. China is narrowing its economic and military power gap with the US and offers a different model for developing countries. Granted, China’s economy remains closely intertwined with the US and the world. But the breakdown of the old regime has begun with both military and economic conflicts, such as sanctions against Russia and export restrictions to China, among others. This has increased the risk of western countries’ economic dependence on developing countries whose political structures may not mirror their own.
What does the data say?
For decades, global trade/GDP trended consistently upward. But in the past ten years, it’s been flat.1 Policy-imposed trade restrictions have more than quadrupled since 2017.2
Mentions of “reshoring,” “onshoring,” and “nearshoring” have increased tenfold in corporate presentations.3 And it’s not just talk; manufacturing construction starts in the US are at an all-time high, likely reflecting onshoring projects already underway (Figure 1).
Figure 1
Capital has been impacted too. Russian holdings were wiped out because of conflict in Ukraine and investors were forced to sell Chinese companies caught with sanctions, so investors have become wary of deploying capital internationally.
There’s a clear desire from policymakers and corporations to reverse some aspects of globalization and it’s starting to impact the economy and markets.
Understanding the implications
If deglobalization continues to accelerate, Generally, growth rates will be lower while inflation will be higher as goods and labor become less optimized. Economic cycles may become more volatile amid less international risk-sharing and corporate margins could be pressured, especially among the companies that have benefited from outsourcing labor. There’s also the potential for an increase in capex, especially considering the capex needs of the energy transition and a nascent commodity cycle.
Identifying the opportunities
Despite this rather negative picture for capital markets, opportunities remain. Commodities, for example, could see long-term tailwinds because. less efficient supply chains and competition with domestic industrial sectors for services tend to increase marginal commodity production costs.
What’s more, geopolitical instability creates supply risks. For example, at least 23% of oil production occurs in countries currently facing US sanctions.4 Countries may compete for resources, for example inputs into the energy transition, which can push up prices and further contribute to the deglobalization process.
Gold may stand to benefit both as a risk hedge to a more unstable world and from any weakening in the US dollar’s reserve status. In fact, central bank demand for gold spiked to record highs last year, possibly a result of reserve diversification away from the US dollar and euro after Russia invaded Ukraine.
US Steel companies are a good example of the commodity dynamics at play. Increased manufacturing construction and customers’ focus on a domestic supply chain currently support US steel demand. Meanwhile, tariffs driven by geopolitical concerns are in place, so increased imports cannot alleviate the tightness, which allows for the domestic steel industry to earn elevated profit margins.
Industrials, such as engineering and construction companies, could also benefit from domestic infrastructure spending and onshoring. After a long downcycle, capacity is limited and increased demand could see tightness and significant pricing power. Similarly, services that rent equipment to these engineering and construction companies could benefit. So, too, might rail services as transit between domestic manufacturing hubs increases.
Automation and staffing services could experience a boost from these trends. Decreased immigration and increased desire for local production could tighten labor markets, potentially increasing demand for staffing expertise and for substitution in the form of automation as wages grow.
Deglobalization is here
It appears highly likely that these trends will continue given the confluence of political and economic factors, but the path forward will likely take unexpected turns and the sectors and companies that benefit from shifting market dynamics will ebb and flow with the cycle. But, regardless of how deglobalization takes shape, we believe it will likely be a key market driver going forward.
1International Monetary Fund, 2023. | 2Global Trade Alert, 2023. | 3As of 2022, compared to pre-pandemic levels. International Monetary Fund. | 4International Energy Agency, 2023.
Expert
Related insights
Showing
of
Insights Posts
Debt and dysfunction in Washington: The US hits the ceiling (again)
Continue reading
Quick Take
2024-02-29
URL References
Related Insights
Stay up to date with the latest market insights and our point of view.
Read next
Showing
of
Insights Posts
Emerging markets health care: Ready for takeoff?
Global Industry Analyst Sue Su shares her sanguine outlook on the health care sector in emerging markets, especially in China, which represents the largest opportunity in this space.
Quick Take
2024-03-31
Russia/Ukraine: One year in with no end in sight
Geopolitical Strategist Thomas Mucha analyzes the impacts of the Russia/Ukraine conflict one year in and identifies potential longer-term effects.
Quick Take
2024-02-29
Fintech regulation: Geopolitics, ESG, and crypto
Discover how fintech’s growing role as a national strategic imperative impacts regulations, the effect of ESG on regulation, and the specific need for regulation in crypto markets.
Article
2024-02-29
Debt and dysfunction in Washington: The US hits the ceiling (again)
Global Investment Strategist Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson talks to Macro Strategist Mike Medeiros about the US debt-ceiling showdown and considers its potential investment implications.
Quick Take
2024-02-29
Why investing in themes for EM equities may reap rewards
Portfolio Manager Dáire Dunne outlines why he is increasingly optimistic about the potential opportunities within select EM equity themes this year.
Article
2024-02-29
How to invest amidst a still unfolding energy crisis?
In this ActiveViews webcast, senior climate – and energy – focused professionals explore the still unfolding energy crisis in Europe and the associated challenges and opportunities for investors.
Event replay
2024-02-29
China internet: Identifying opportunities amid economic reopening
China’s re-opening and economic recovery from its zero-COVID policy has bolstered our optimism in Chinese internet companies.
Article
2023-12-31
Picture this: Our 2023 economic forecast in five charts
We explain the shifts the market is undergoing, analyze the implications for different asset classes, and identify potential risks and opportunities in a series of visuals.
2023-12-31
Navigating the new global economy in 2023
This executive summary distills the points of view of several of our 2023 Outlook authors. Discover the risks and opportunities they see as we enter a new economic and market regime.
Article
2023-12-31
China equity in 2023: Year of the stock picker
Despite the potential risks of investing in China equity, Equity Portfolio Manager Bo Meunier believes there are attractive opportunities for patient, discerning stock pickers.
Article
2023-12-31
Semiconductor industry faces near-term headwinds, long-term growth
Global Industry Analyst Eunhak Bae analyzes short-term headwinds and long-term opportunities in the semiconductor industry.
Article
2023-12-31
URL References
Related Insights