Superforecasting in practice
Wellington’s recurring macro survey originated from a conversation three of our macro thinkers had over six years ago about Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner’s book Superforecasting. Tetlock and Gardner argue that forecasting is a skill that can be improved, and we thought their theory could work well in practice at Wellington, given the firm’s collaborative culture. The hope was to sharpen our collective and individual forecasting skills, enhance our internal investment dialogue, reveal where our views differ from the market consensus and identify how they change over time. The resulting internal survey gathers the anonymous responses of macro-minded investors across all disciplines, asset classes and office locations. The precise formulation of the questions is important. Wherever possible, our questions aim to be precise, time-bound, measurable, probabilistic and rollable from one quarter to the next so as to give us a richer data set over time. We think the results can pinpoint where the firm’s views differ from the consensus and can also reveal important shifts in our collective thinking.