Our experts believe the global economic cycle is slowing and that the slowdown may gather momentum. Despite signs of falling inflation, we don’t think policy is tight enough to achieve sustainable target inflation levels. Yet, central banks seem to have little appetite to raise rates further, because they fear recession more than above-target inflation. Different choices by policymakers against these trade-offs could lead countries down diverging growth paths, creating opportunities for active managers. In this collection, we explore opportunities and risks created by intensifying macro regime change and continued geopolitical uncertainty; we dive into macro expectations for the US; we reflect on the macro implications of two megatrends that could drive results for many years to come: generative AI and the energy transition; and we offer our near-, medium-, and long-term ideas on commodities.
Commodities: Top ideas and evolving opportunities
To help clients plan for the coming year, our commodities experts share their top near-term, medium-term, and long-term investment ideas.
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