United States, Institutional

Changechevron_right
menu
search
Skip to main content

Asset Allocation Outlook

Multiple authors
August 2025
4 min read
2026-08-31
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
474157734

The views expressed are those of the authors at the time of writing. Other teams may hold different views and make different investment decisions. The value of your investment may become worth more or less than at the time of original investment. While any third-party data used is considered reliable, its accuracy is not guaranteed. For professional, institutional, or accredited investors only.

This is a monthly snapshot of Wellington Solutions Group’s asset allocation views as of July 2025. It covers global equities, bonds and commodities and complements the more detailed analysis we share in our quarterly Asset Allocation Outlook.

Key*

1

*Please note that we use a more detailed key in our quarterly Asset Allocation Outlook

Equities

Overweight: no change

US

Underweight no chnage

We have upgraded our stance on US equities to neutral. The market narrative is evolving, in a partial shift in focus from tariff-related uncertainty to a more optimistic outlook for the macro environment and earnings in 2026. Over the next year, US earnings are likely to remain robust, and AI continues to be a key driver of earnings growth expectations. Furthermore, the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” is expected to offer meaningful support to US equities through tax cuts and extensions to current tax provisions. While we remain neutral at present, we are looking to build conviction towards a potential overweight stance.

Europe

Neutral: no change

We remain neutral on European equities, consistent with last month. While the region has seen some encouraging developments this year, such as Germany’s 2025 draft budget and long-term investment plans, these are largely structural in nature and are already reflected in market pricing. With limited near-term catalysts and reduced potential for outperformance going forward, we have maintained our current neutral view.

Japan

Overweight no change

We have moved to a neutral stance on Japanese equities, reflecting a broader shift away from regional relative value trades in favour of capturing broad-based global equity risk. While Japan continues to benefit from supportive structural trends, these tailwinds may take longer to materialise. We have adjusted our view accordingly.

Emerging markets

Neutral: no change

We maintain a neutral stance on emerging markets (EM) equities, in line with the previous month. That said, EM remains an area of growing interest: valuations continue to appear attractive, and earnings have shown resilience. While the overall backdrop has become increasingly constructive, we are awaiting a more compelling entry point before considering an upgrade to our view.

Government bonds

aa-icon-heading-neutral-nc

US

Neutral: no change

We remain neutral on US rates. While there is growing potential for rate cuts, we are still awaiting greater clarity on how inflationary and impactful the recent tariffs will be. Given a largely fair market pricing of underlying drivers, we prefer to maintain a neutral stance.

Europe

Neutral: no change

Our overall view on European duration remains neutral. From a relative value perspective we still favour UK gilts over German and French government bonds, but we, have modestly reduced our overweight stance on UK duration, as the market has already shifted towards our view and the remaining scope for repricing for now appears more limited. In parallel, we also scaled back our underweight stance on eurozone duration. 

Japan

Underweight no chnage

We maintained our underweight stance on Japanese rates, consistent with the previous month. Persistent wage momentum and rising inflation expectations continue to support our thesis. In addition, the increased likelihood of a post-election fiscal impulse is expected to exert upward pressure on yields, reinforcing our underweight view.

Credit spreads

Overweight: no change

Investment-grade credit

Neutral: no change

We maintain a neutral view on investment-grade (IG) credit. While we continue to find selective opportunities in high yield, tight spreads in IG mean our stance is to remain on the sidelines for now.

High yield

Overweight: no change

We remain modestly overweight in our view on high yield credit but are maintaining a cautious stance. While spreads appear tight overall, the picture is more uneven in certain segments of the market, reinforcing the need for a selective approach and limiting our appetite to engage further at this stage.

Emerging markets

Neutral: no change

We hold a neutral view on emerging market debt, reflecting ongoing uncertainty around global trade dynamics and geopolitical developments. At this stage, we do not see compelling reasons to adjust our perspective. However, meaningful progress on trade or geopolitical fronts could prompt us to reassess our stance.

Commodities

Overweight no change

These asset allocation views are produced by Wellington Solutions Group, which provides client-centred investment solutions, research and advice ranging from whole portfolio solutions to bespoke single asset class and advisory partnerships. Our solutions platform incorporates expertise across multi-asset, fundamental factor investing and thematic approaches to deliver across a range of client outcomes and objectives. If you wish to discuss your investment challenges, and how Wellington Solutions can help, please contact your Wellington relationship manager or #solutions@wellington.com.

em-evolution-new-paths-in-equity-portfolio-construction-fig8

Experts

Related insights

Showing 7 of 7 Insights Posts
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

Monthly Market Review — June 2025

Continue reading
event July 2025
18 min
Article
2027-07-31
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

Still climbing, just slower

Continue reading
event July 2025
15 min
Article
2026-07-31
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

Quarterly Market Review — 2Q2025

Continue reading
event July 2025
18 min
Article
2026-07-31
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

One Big Beautiful Bill: Why it’s “buy now, pay later” for markets

Continue reading
event July 2025
4 min
Article
2026-07-31
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

The long and short (term) of markets

Continue reading
event July 2025
14 min
Article
2027-01-01
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

Facing a new economic reality

Continue reading
event July 2025
5 min
Article
2026-08-31
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

Severance: The split between the economy and the markets

Continue reading
event July 2025
13 min
Article
2026-06-30
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

Disclosure

For professional and institutional investors only. All investing involves risk. Investment markets are subject to economic, regulatory, market sentiment and political risks. All investors should consider the risks that may impact their capital, before investing. The value of your investment may become worth more or less than at the time of the original investment. If the strategies do not perform as expected, if opportunities to implement them do not arise, or if the team does not implement its investment strategies successfully, then a strategy may underperform or experience losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results and investments can lose value.

This material is prepared for, and authorised for internal use by, designated institutional and professional investors and their consultants or for such other use as may be authorised by Wellington Management. This material and/or its contents are current at the time of writing and may not be reproduced or distributed in whole or in part, for any purpose, without the express written consent of Wellington Management. This material is not intended to constitute investment advice or an offer to sell, or the solicitation of an offer to purchase shares or other securities. Investors should always obtain and read an up-to-date investment services description or prospectus before deciding whether to appoint an investment manager or to invest in a fund.

Any views expressed herein are those of the Wellington Solutions Multi-Asset Team, are based on available information and are subject to change without notice. Individual portfolio management teams may hold different views and may make different investment decisions for different clients. While any third-party data used is considered reliable, its accuracy is not guaranteed.

This material represents an assessment of the market and economic environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. Forward-looking statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties. Actual results, performance or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources. It is not guaranteed as to accuracy, does not purport to be complete and is not intended to be used as a primary basis for investment decisions. It should also not be construed as advice meeting the particular investment needs of any investor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Read next